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Finishing the midseason dynasty trading series, this week's installment discusses quarterback and tight ends to target:
leveraging stock formats for quarterbacks
In typical start-1 formats, few quarterbacks stand out in their impact on fantasy results. The position is as deep as ever and more than a dozen options are all similar outside of Patrick Mahomes II and maybe Drew Brees. One of the bigger projects in recent years I took on over the past month is collecting MFL start rate data and looking at adjusted fantasy points, as fantasy points scored on a team's bench has minimal value and vice versa a dud performance in a lineup is of high impact. The end result is a number I have labeled 'True Impact'. Another method, with the same general premise, but looking at fantasy win-loss impact over a regular season (13 weeks) is WORP, or wins over replacement player. To highlight the 'quarterbacks in a start-1 do no matter much' premise, Patrick Mahomes II through seven weeks is sitting at 0.88 WORP, but there are a number of options in the 0.40 to 0.65 range. While Mahomes is the biggest difference maker at the position, a host of other quarterbacks are less than a half-a-win less. In layman terms, a 4-3 team with a decent QB1 is likely 4.5-2.5 (give or take) with Mahomes instead. This is a small difference in the grand scheme of seven weeks of a fantasy regular season for having the top option of a position.
find impact or do not bother
At tight end, Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce are the two noteworthy impact options over the rest of the field through seven weeks. Outside of this duo, there is not much difference-making for the rest of the position towards dynasty record results. Jared Cook started hot, for example, with 27 points in Week 1, but he was not in many lineups. That is empty production. Once Cook was in more lineups starting in Week 2, he has surpassed 9 PPR points in just one game (Week 4). George Kittle, Eric Ebron, and Rob Gronkowski are the next tier in terms of True Impact scores, but they are far closer to the rest of the position than the top tier of Kelce and Ertz. If truly dying at the position on an otherwise solid contender, addressing tight end via trade for as cheap as possible is recommended with little difference between the next 10-15 options.
become age agnostic
More of a recommendation at quarterback is to be more age agnostic than ever before. The NFL rules are such that the older quarterbacks with high awareness can thrive for longer than ever before, reducing hits taken, and exploiting the limitations on defensive players. As a result, 40 years old is not the death knell for fantasy production it once was and penalizing upper-tier options like Tom Brady and Drew Brees for their age is a risky move considering their acumen and potential impact over the next 2-3 years or more. On the flip side, dynasty GMs have seen the risk for anointing young and (relatively) unproven quarterbacks as the next great thing. Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, and Dak Prescott are cautionary examples of being thrust up in valuation on what they may do, but underwhelm expectations following their swift rise in perceived value.
quarterbackS
drew brees
Brees has a higher True Value (incorporating start rate and production) than even Patrick Mahomes II this season. Brees is also QB3 in WORP. The value lies in Brees being older and some (or many) question how many years Brees has yet. His impact at present is enough and the position is affordable enough to address in a couple of years if necessary to be aggressive in acquiring Brees. Here are a few examples around the dynasty trade water cooler for trades involving Brees:
- Brees for 2nd
- Brees, Tarik Cohen for Alex Smith, Marvin Jones, 1st (2QB)
- Brees for Wendell Smallwood, 2nd, 2nd
- Brees for Anthony Miller, 2nd
Matt Ryan
Ryan is top-5 in True Impact and WORP through seven weeks. His weapons are among the best in the NFL with Calvin Ridley developing quickly alongside sturdy Mohamed Sanu and of course Julio Jones.
- Ryan, Mike Williams for Allen Robinson
- Ryan for Eli Manning, Geoff Swaim, 1st, 2nd (2QB)
- Ryan, 3rd for 2nd, 2nd
- Ryan for Marcus Mariota, 2nd
tight endS
george Kittle
Even with Jimmy Garoppolo missing time and a few drops on potential big plays, Kittle has been an underrated fantasy impact, grading as TE4 in True Impact per game on the season. There is top-2/3 upside here with a higher functioning offense if the 49ers upgrade wide receiver and Garoppolo returns healthy next season. Kittle has scored 13 or more points in 4-of-6 games including two of 20+ points. Here are a few examples around the dynasty trade water cooler for trades involving Kittle:
- Kittle, 3rd for Kelvin Benjamin, 2nd
- Kittle for Taylor Gabriel, 2nd
- Kittle, Devin Funchess for Tevin Coleman, Alex Collins
- Kittle, Taywan Taylor for Jordan Howard, Ryan Griffin
jordan reed
The historical equation for strong tight end production is a good enough quarterback with a weak No.1 wide receiver (or weak wide receiver depth chart overall). The formula works for Reed with Washington lacking wide receiver strength and Alex Smith being good enough. However, Washington's emphasis on funneling the passing game through Reed has been muted thus far and Reed's snaps have been limited despite being healthy. Reed is worth betting on though as He is in the top-10 for True Impact scores even with these non-optimal restrictions through half a season. Reed is one of the few worthy bets at the position with top-3 upside for the rest of the season who have not produced as such to-date. Here are a few examples around the dynasty trade water cooler for trades involving Reed:
- Reed for Antonio Callaway, 2nd
- Reed for 2nd
- Reed for Cameron Meredith
- Reed for Dallas Goedert
- Reed for Duke Johnson Jr, 3rd
