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The Gut Check No.459: Marlon Mack and the Film Notebook

In this week's Gut Check, Matt Waldman shares entries from his film study on Marlon Mack and several others from Week 8 and beyond. 

By Matt Waldman
October 24, 2018
The Gut Check No.459: Marlon Mack and the Film Notebook
Photo: David Kohl, USA Today Sports

Some weeks of film study yield more insights than others. After looking at Week 8's film, my eyes are tired. Instead of packing all of that into an already overstuffed Top 10, the Gut Check will take the leftovers.

Who doesn't like late-night leftovers from the fridge?

Marlon Mack: What he is, What he isn't, and what you'll get

Marlon Mack has a wide receiver's frame, wide receiver's speed, and wide receiver's hands at the running back position. Get him in space and he's one of the more dangerous runners in the league.

Because he's built more like a receiver, he lacks great contact balance and finishing power. He also lacks the footwork and it limits him as a zone runner. Ask him to process multiple decisions in quick succession near the line of scrimmage and he's not going to generate a lot of gains that keep an offense on schedule with its playbook.

Here are some examples of what he is, what he isn't, and what you'll get from him.

Fantasy Verdict: It's unlikely at this point that Mack will ever become a featured back. He can be the lead runner in this offense because it's a gap-centric scheme that allows Mack to do what he does best as a ballcarrier.

When he faces teams with top defensive tackles, strong-side linebackers, and/or safeties who can blow up these plays before they develop at or beyond the line of scrimmage. The Eagles, Texans, Cowboys, and Titans are good examples of defenses on the schedule that could present difficult challenges for Mack to overcome as a runner — even if he can still beat them with a big play as a satellite back in the receiving game.

The Raiders and Dolphins should be excellent matchups for Mack to generate consistent yardage in addition to the potential for a big play. If the Jaguars get healthy and the offense can stop placing additional strain on the defense, Jacksonville can be a challenge for Mack and the Colts. If not, they'll also be an easier option.

The Giants have a strong front and a good run-defending safety who shut down Mack and this gap scheme but there is greater potential for boom-bust outcomes that could benefit Mack.

If you're hoping Mack can revive your fantasy team, you're looking at 3-4 games (depending on how fast the Jaguars regroup, if at all) during the next 6 weeks prior to Week 14 where he can deliver no worse than good flex production with fantasy RB1 upside if he hits the big play.

If you're hoping Mack can deliver in the playoffs, it's purely a boom-bust proposition. Marlon Mack is exciting, he's capable of big stats, and he could help your team as a solid flex, but he won't carry you to the promised land at crunch time this year.

What about Trenton Cannon?

The Jets running back earns a bigger opportunity after Bilal Powell landed on IR with a neck injury. He's a speedster who can catch the ball. This wheel route where he's matched up with Eric Kendrick, good coverage linebacker, is a complete mismatch in favor of Cannon.

What he isn't is a banger. If he isn't at top speed and in the secondary, it's unlikely to see him break wraps or bounce off significant contact. He managed to show some savvy on this 4th-and-1 toss last week where he read the opportunity for a cutback — something younger backs don't always execute this well when they've had limited action and aren't in the flow of the game.

Fantasy Verdict: If Elijah McGuire displays confidence on his repaired broken foot and his conditioning is good enough to prevent cascade injuries that limit him (a reasonable pair of "ifs"...), he could take over Powell's role and deliver solid flex production for the Jets. If not, Crowell will carry the load and the Jets will be seeking another option from the waiver wire to support the ground game. Cannon looks like a player destined for 3-5 touches per game this year, at best.

Miami, Buffalo, and Green Bay are the best matchups for the Jets ground game, which means you're probably trying to ride the potential for two good matchups (after a difficult one against the Bears) to sell high or else you're riding the running back carousel week-to-week.

is Dallas Goedert emerging?

If Zach Ertz got hurt tomorrow, Goedert would be a great candidate to deliver top-12 fantasy production at his position. He has the acceleration to beat good coverage linebackers—and old-man Thomas Davis is still a good athlete at the position—and win up the seam or on over-routes.

He also displays savvy in the red zone to find small windows with slight adjustments against trailing coverage. Carson Wentz's recognition of what Goedert is doing indicates there's some rapport between the two, which has been enhanced with the playing time the Eagles have given Goedert as the second tight end in the offense.

Fantasy Verdict: The Eagles used Goedert last weekend as a receiving option in a fair amount of misdirection situations to attack an aggressive Panthers defense. The Jaguars, Cowboys, Rams, and Texans aren't heavy-blitzing teams so the enhanced targets he earned won't be as likely in Weeks 8, 10, 14, 15, and 16. However, he could be a helpful match-up target in Weeks 11-13 if you're desperate to reach the playoffs and your tight ends are failing you.

Can Adrian Peterson keep this up?

Yes. He's a Cyborg.

Let's now move on to the detailed answer. Despite injuries that would mess with any extraordinary NFL football player, Peterson is a supreme pro. If you trust only Jene Bramel for discussion about football player health (this writer doesn't blame you), take this for what little it's worth: Peterson's rate of healing, stamina and conditioning to out-pace younger backs on this roster, and his insanely hard running style are all reasons to embrace that he's a freakish athlete who will remain a viable fantasy starter unless there's a major injury that won't allow him to physically run or threatens his life.

Describing Peterson as a "hard runner" isn't only about him punishing defenders. The violence of his stride and cutting is awe-inspiring if you consider how long he's been doing it, how often he does it, and how much wear-and-tear this can create for mortals at the position.

Peterson was once a God among running backs but without his top gear, he's been reduced to a mythic hero. He makes this cutback to beat four defenders appear much easier than it is.

Most notable about Peterson this season is that he dispelled the notion that he can't run from the shotgun. While Washington has found ways to match Peterson's style to the gun, it's not like the coaching staff didn't ask Peterson to adjust and learn.

Plus, the idea that he wasn't good in shotgun was a bit of a "take" from those who weren't giving the Vikings line enough responsibility for its failures late in Peterson's career. The Vikings originally used Jerick McKinnon as a passing-down player. So when the offense ran him on draws, delays, or other ground-oriented selections on passing downs with the team behind or the defense expecting something else, McKinnon's higher efficiency shouldn't have been a complete surprise.

Although Jeremy Sprinkle nullifies this run, Peterson's initial work at the line of scrimmage is the kind of thing that many skeptics of his shotgun-work didn't think he could do.

Fantasy Verdict: As long as the Washington defense can contain Atlanta and Tampa Bay's offenses and keep the game close for much of three quarters, Peterson has a chance to deliver top-15 fantasy production on a weekly basis.

Will Fuller is the goods, but is he the fantasy goods?

Many of us know Will Fuller V as a vertical option but Football Danny Tuccitto mentioned in last week's Footballguys Roundtable that Fuller is an underrated player. This is true. Fuller can run a route. He's so sudden and clean with breaks that his tape has clinic-worthy moments.

Fantasy Verdict: He doesn't get the opportunity to prove his worth against tight coverage because DeAndre Hopkins is among the best in the world in this area. However, the Keke Coutee love may need to be placed on temporary hold due to ongoing hamstring issues. Fuller looks like he's feeling better. Miami, Washington, Tennessee, Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Philadelphia are all nice-looking opportunities for Fuller in Weeks 8, 11-14, and 16. It's a bold move, but if your team is struggling to stay afloat and you need to trade a big-time receiver for a runner an underperforming option who could turn things around, Fuller could be that guy.

Get A.J. Green

Obvious, right? He's one of the best receivers of the past decade and he's currently the No.6 option at his position in standard formats. Who wouldn't want Green? Of course, sometimes it's important to emphasize which of the top players should continue delivering.

Green is an excellent tight-coverage option who still has speed-to-burn, strong red-zone skills, and superior craft as a route runner. What's new is slot targets?

Our Footballguys recap crew has noted Green's slot usage in three games this year and the decision to give him selected targets from the slot is a promising sign that the Bengals will ride a healthy Green as far as the offense can go.

Fantasy Verdict: Because of Andy Dalton and Green's recent injuries, there's a slight chance that the current player with Green's services could be a little softer on trading a top receiver like him than the likes of Antonio Brown or DeAndre Hopkins. I wouldn't give him to you but someone might. Ha! Good luck...

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