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"With strong in-season management, we believe your team has a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs..."
- Footballguys' Rate My Team App
"But this Matt Waldman guy who writes for us really likes your team..."
- Jene Bramel as he reads the Rate My Team analysis
"It's gonna be another good season..."
- Me upon reading Rate My Team trashing my squad
It's the story of my fantasy career at Footballguys. Rate My Team is an awesome application and if you're seeking to play it safe, you need to check it out. I'm here for those of you traveling a wilder path.
I see things differently. I'm the monkey wrench in the works, the fly in the ointment, and the exception to the rule.
Rate My Team quakes in fear of me trolling it.
The quotes above were about my team in the Footballguys Original Gangstas Staff League — a roster that Rate My Team gave a 30 percent chance of even making the playoffs. Jene read the results to me at the end of our draft and laughed out loud as it did. He's used to me turning ugly ducklings into swans.
And yes, last year's squad with a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs went 10-3, outscored the next best point-scorer by 200 points for the year, and went to the league championship game.
I don't draft like everyone else. Nowadays it's by necessity because I compete with players who know all of the conventional angles, have a bead on the emerging options, and they play the odds as well as anyone.
I'm willing to fail big for the chance to win big.
This year's All-Gut Check Sleeper Squad is composed of my 30 unconventional favorites. If you're reading everything in sight from April through August and ready to play Old Man on the Porch with my picks, you've lost perspective on what a sleeper is because you're probably losing sleep to stay abreast of the length of the thread hanging from John Kelly's practice jersey.
Most of you reading this aren't that guy. Or, you are but you're a fellow traveler of the fantasy wilderness happy to see another.
Don't view this list as a complete substitute for marquee picks. You may wish to lean on some of these players in that capacity but it's not designed as a beginning-to-end draft blueprint.
Although, it looks kind of fun to try it that way.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City - His average draft position has dipped after reports from the first week of training camp where he threw multiple interceptions. It's a fantastic development for folks like us because he's a must-draft option this year. Despite the likelihood that you're going to witness several weeks where he throws dumb-looking interceptions, you're also going to see throws that no quarterback in the league can make as consistently.
Mahomes is the best quarterback prospect I've studied in five years. The herd mentality is still concerned about the wrong things: his Big 12 background, his mechanics, his aggressiveness, and Andy Reid's offensive complexity.
Let them. They don't realize how much control Mahomes had over his college offense, how many full-field reads he makes compared to Alex Smith in this system, and his willingness to target fade routes to receivers whose (guess what?) strengths have always been targets they can win against tight coverage but Smith isn't that kind of thrower.
Mahomes has four receivers with Pro Bowl potential, a solid offensive line, and a pair of good running backs. He also has a coach who understands how to develop a creative passer like Mahomes without stunting the qualities that make him a special prospect.
Mahomes may throw 20 interceptions this year. If he does, I bet he also throws for over 4,000 yards and 35 touchdowns. He'll be much closer to the bottom of the top 5 at his position than the bottom half of the Top 15. I'm willing to draft him one or two rounds above his ADP to ensure he's quarterbacking my squad.
Jared Goff, L.A. Rams - If I can't get Mahomes, Goff is the alternative — and likely a safer one at that. People continue to underestimate Goff's skills but it's because they undervalue the support a quarterback earns from a good offensive line, a balanced attack, and wide receivers that have as much or more to offer as route runners than athletes. Goff has all of these factors in his favor and he's a much better pocket player than given credit.
Although we see video examples of the Rams ground game setting up the pass, there are notable examples weekly where Sean McVay is actually using the pass to set up the run and opposing teams respecting the threat of Goff ahead of Gurley. This will be the final year where fantasy owners underrated Goff. If Mahomes and Goff didn't share a bye week, they'd both be on my squad.
Philip Rivers, L.A. Chargers - Only one quarterback threw for more yards than Rivers last year, and only four others exceeded his passing touchdown totals. Rivers offers less than nothing (-2 yards rushing and 0 rushing touchdowns) on the ground but he's among the safest options on the board because he has a great feel for the pass rush, has a track record of durability, and like Drew Brees, he can rub two wet sticks together in a monsoon and generate fire. He's often passed over for the young athletic options with a lot more still to prove to earn that value ahead of Rivers.
Derek Carr, Oakland - I've never been a big believer in Carr but I'm buying what Jon Gruden is selling. The hipster-data crowd hates that he trolled them but little do they realize that he was doing what they've suggested before many of them were old enough to go out in public without a parent. The greatest issue with Gruden has never been his offenses but his acquisition of young talent. He's a great chef with a bad track record at the grocery store. Carr isn't his purchase and Gruden's offenses are balanced and explosive with the right talent. He has the right talent this year. More of them will be on this list.
Running Back
Alex Collins, Baltimore: After posting my Choose Your Own Adventure Conservative Draft Plan, I received an email from a follower who questioned the Collins as a conservative pick. It's just another indication of the herd mentality infiltrating the minds of most fantasy players. Collins is arguably one of the safest picks available in 2018 fantasy drafts. He's healthy, he performed at a top-12 running back rate for much of the year and did it without his best lineman — one of the best in the NFL (Marshal Yanda). Kenneth Dixon might make a late play back into the rotation but Collins has this gig nailed down and should be valued closer to the top 12 than the bottom quarter of the top 20 at his position. Look at those ahead of him and you'll understand the seductive quality that raw athletic ability has over fantasy owners: Joe Mixon, Jerick McKinnon, LeSean McCoy, and sometimes Kenyan Drake. McCoy is a great back but his offensive line lacks proven starters. There's also that knee-jerk argument for a regression. Silly wabbits...
Royce Freeman, Denver: When studying Devontae Booker at Utah, I often joked to myself that he took the ball towards the intended crease with his eyes closed, a prayer in his mind, and his legs moving as fast as possible. Three years later, I think I spotted rosary beads wrapped around his ball-carrying hand. He still lacks starter-caliber vision and footwork although it's so close to this level that it's tremendously frustrating. Freeman has terrific footwork, good balance, better speed than you think, and the only thing holding him back is inconsistent pass protection. Even that is improving. If I"m going to take a chance on a rookie whose at risk for toiling in a committee if I'm wrong, Freeman is that guy.
Marshawn Lynch, Oakland: Healthy and operating with a head coach who understands how to run an offense, Lynch will earn productive volume behind an offensive line that will exploit bad run fits. He has top-10 upside at his position and he's often picked in the lower fifth of the position's top 30.
Doug Martin, Oakland: This is another case of fantasy owners conflating bad fit with bad talent. Martin is an excellent runner with a lot of treads left on the tires. It's possible that Martin and Lynch split the workload and that will be an overall failure for fantasy. However, at their price, it's a risk worth taking because the offensive line and offensive mind of Gruden are so promising.
Peyton Barber, Buccaneers: How do you spot the sucker in a conversation about running backs? Yards-per-carry and NFL Draft capital are the basis of his analysis. Lighter, quicker, more experienced, and still strong, decisive, and agile, Barber is poised to keep Ronald Jones II in a limited role this year. He's one of the underrated "bad line" runners in the NFL. If Tampa's offensive line moderately improves, Barber could be a top-20 fantasy back.
T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars: The combination of Yeldon's early-career immaturity and a horrific offensive line led to Jacksonville drafting Leonard Fournette. Yeldon saw the near-career death experience and began playing like the star he was at Alabama. Fournette has ankle ligaments held together with duct tape. As you know, duct tape is surprisingly sturdy but it occasionally needs to be changed out while stopping the operating of the machine. If this happens to Fournette, Yeldon can thrive.
Frank Gore, Dolphins: Kenyan Drake runs out of control. It's beautiful to watch in the way that a wild horse kicks up its hooves and bucks around the farm but when doing work, he's often placing himself and his riders in danger. It's difficult to trust Drake until he shows that he's more capable of hitting a crease with subtle footwork than knocking himself out with a head-to-butt collision with his own linemen. Gore is old, lacks top speed, and every hipster fantasy owner in existence has cracked a joke about him. A top-20 fantasy runner last year, Gore was supposed to be washed-up at least two years ago. With a minimum ADP of the 15th round and a running style that still works well in the league, the joke may well be on the naysayers.
Late and Potentially Productive Cuffs: LeGarrette Blount, Spencer Ware, Chris Warren III, Chase Edmonds, John Kelly, and James Conner. Target at least two or three of these guys. Trust me.
Wide Receivers
Marvin Jones: If you didn't see this coming, this is the first article you've ever read of mine.
Josh Gordon: His ADP is a troubling spot because there are safer options with relatively equal upside (see Jones above). However, his absence from training camp feels like a predetermined plan to keep him emotionally healthy and focused. Tyrod Taylor is a good match for Gordon and he's the ultimate risk-reward option of the draft. If you're willing to lose big with him as a pick, find a way to fit him into your draft plan. However, this is only a worthwhile plan if you aren't targeting backs like Freeman and Lynch between rounds five and eight.
Jordy Nelson: There are still people making fun of Nelson's speed because Derek Carr commented on Nelson still playing like the option he was during his prime in Green Bay. After Jones and Gordon, he's the most likely option with an ADP between the fifth and ninth rounds to deliver as a top-5 fantasy receiver this year. Jones did it last year and he's still viewed as a fluke who is somehow not as skilled as the tartare Kenny Golladay and Gordon still flashed all-world ability upon his return last year. Nelson's value is kaput because of Brett Hundley and a tattered offensive line that helped reaffirm Hundley as a one-read wonder.
Anthony Miller: The rookie is for-real. Michael Gallup will be considered the intellectual pick among the rookie receivers but Miller will have a role and likely one that allows him to work the slot and the perimeter based on Tarik Cohen's usage for the play.
Chris Godwin: DeSean Jackson is in the same ADP range as Godwin but Godwin is the starter. While this is a reflection that the Buccaneers will have a rotation of contributors in the starting lineup that includes Godwin, Jackson, and Adam Humphries, Godwin and Jackson should be higher than they are. Expect Godwin to challenge for the team lead in red zone touchdowns.
Keelan Cole: The Jaguars challenge defenses vertically with its slot receiver and that's often Cole, who can play inside and outside. If you're examining his stats and concluding that he's a late-season fluke, you didn't watch the quality and timeliness of his targets during the playoffs. He's could deliver top-15 production at his position this year if all goes well because he's on track to become the most reliable and dangerous option on the team. A safer expectation is top 24-36 at his position, which is still a bargain.
James Washington: It's probable that Washington will be the player that many are hoping they'll get with Gallup. He will earn some excellent one-on-one opportunities thanks to Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Brandon Marshall: There's a place for Pete Carroll's perennial optimism and the late rounds of a fantasy draft with a proven veteran like Marshall is that spot. His healthy and recent weeks of performance in training camp is an encouraging sign for Seattle.
Dante Pettis: He's a versatile receiver capable of playing every receiver position at a high level and he's already pushing for playing time on a roster where one starter is an aging veteran and the other has a significant history of concussions. At this price and situation, it's an intelligent pick.
Tight end
Austin Hooper: Last season was a year too early for the Hooper emergence. This year, Atlanta has addressed its issues with Steve Sarkisian's play calling and the communication and route running of the passing game in the red zone. Matt Ryan says Hooper's timing has improved and he should benefit from the attention teams will pay to Julio Jones, Falcons running backs, and Calvin Ridley in the passing game. A top-12 season at his position is well within reach.
Ben Watson: He had a career-year during his last stint in New Orleans and rebounded from Achilles tear in 2016 to deliver 61 catches, 522 yards, and 4 touchdowns in 2017 — No. 11 fantasy production at the position and 10th in 1.5 PPR formats. Many fantasy owners fear the very old and the very young but there's great opportunity to fish these waters selectively.
Dallas Goedert: Seeking a boom-bust option of note late? Look no further. If Zach Ertz becomes Zach Hurtz, Goedert could deliver top-five production based on his ball-tracking skills, athletic ability, and volume in this Eagles offense that creates seams for its tight ends. If Ertz remains healthy, Goedert is already slated for the Tre Burton role from 2017. Burton earned five touchdowns last year and four of them came between Weeks 9-17 when he was the No. 13 fantasy option at the position. If Goedert earns this love all year, he's a steal.
Flex
Tarik Cohen, Chicago: The Bears have kept Cohen's usage in hiding during the preseason, but he has played every receiver position as well as running back during training camp. He will have a variation of the Tyreek Hill role on this team. If he's available in the seventh or eighth round, he's difficult to ignore here in PPR leagues. If the Bears use him every week like they did during sporadic episodes of the 2017 season, Cohen will make prime Danny Woodhead look prehistoric.