As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend and look for other opportunities.
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Public Trend – 64% of the public bets favor Tampa Bay
Cleveland was hammered at home by the Chargers 38-14. The game was much worse in that Cleveland managed just two field goals until there were 12 minute left in the game. Cleveland’s offense struggled the whole game with Baker Mayfield having more interceptions than touchdowns and Duke Johnson Jr leading the team with just 36 rushing yards. Jarvis Landry and Antonio Calloway combined for just four receptions for 20 yards. Tampa Bay may have lost on the road last week in Atlanta, but their offense went crazy with Jameis Winston making his first start of the season. He put up almost 400 yards passing, including four passing touchdowns and chipped in another 31 yards on the ground. Peyton Barber also had 100 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
Tampa Bay has the second worst defense in the league, averaging 440 yards allowed per game. They are also allowing almost 35 points per game, and have given up 32 more points than they’ve scored all season. Despite last week’s loss, the Browns have played tough all season, and they are actually 4-2 against the spread this season. The Buccaneers are just 2-3 ATS so far. Aside from the blowout last week, the Browns were averaging just 22 points per game allowed. With a 3.5 point spot, the scrappy Browns are in a great position to get back on track.
The Vegas line moved toward Cleveland as the money keeps flowing toward Tampa Bay. The Over/Under has moved up two points as well, with Vegas expecting this to be a shoot-out.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT CHICAGO BEARS
Public Trend – 65% of the public bets favor New England
New England gave Kansas City their first loss last week in a big prime-time game. They are back on top of the AFC East and are averaging almost 30 points per game on offense. The Bears went into Miami as a big favorite, but their defense came out flat and gave up big plays to Brock Osweiler and Albert Wilson that ultimately cost them the game. Their vaulted defense gave up 380 yards passing and 3 touchdowns to Osweiler, had just one tackle for a loss and did not record a sack.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
The Bears are a different team at home, and are 2-0 against the spread and just 1-2 on the road. The Patriots by comparison are 0-2 on the road against the spread. Chicago’s defense has been rock solid except for the Miami game, averaging less than 17 point per game before last week. Chicago’s passing offense has been on fire in their last two games, and Mitchell Trubicky has 670 passing yards and nine touchdowns against one interception over those two games. New England has given up 717 yards through the air and seven passing touchdowns against four interceptions over those same two games. In a close game against a tough defense, the Bears have a chance to pull off the upset.
TENNESSEE TITANS VS LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (IN LONDON)
Public Trend – 69% of the public bets favor Los Angeles
The Titans laid an egg last week at home against the Ravens, giving up 12 sacks and not scoring any points. Their offense had just 117 yards passing and just 55 yards on the ground. As mentioned above, the Chargers rolled into Cleveland and pounded the Browns 38-14. Their offense is averaging almost 30 points per game while the Titans are averaging just over 14 points per game. This game is played in London, so neither team will have home field advantage.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
The Chargers stayed in Ohio after their blowout against the Browns and flew to London right from there. It’s hard enough to play on the road, but they will be away from home for more than a week. The game will be played at 6:30 AM Pacific time, so if you think a west coast team playing on the east coast is bad… Despite their loss last week, the Titans still have a solid defense, and they are averaging only 17 points allowed per game. Their offense is struggling, but they are still 3-3 against the spread for the season. On a neutral site with a super early start, giving the titans almost a full touchdown advantage to start the game is going to be tough to overcome.
* graphics and numbers are from covers.com.
