Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 6 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 4 DRAFT:
1.01 Sean Settle
1.02 Keith Roberts
1.03 Justin Howe
1.04 Dan Hindery
1.05 Will Grant
1.06 James Brimacombe
DRAFT RESULTS
DRAFT EVALUATION
sean settle - SLOT 1
Overview - Sean had the first overall pick in the draft, which is usually a big advantage. He selected Todd Gurley first overall, which is the consensus pick every week. He has backed it up with over 600 yards of offense and 9 touchdowns in five games. After Gurley, Sean came back with David Johnson, who was the 8th running back off the board. Johnson is projected to finish 7th among running backs this year according to the Week 6 Lineup Optimizer. Arizona is on the road at Minnesota who have not allowed a rushing touchdown yet, and that includes against Todd Gurley. We'll see how that shakes out for Johnson. Sean drafted Adam Thielen in the third round as the 5th receiver taken off the board. Thielen is ranked #3 this week, which us excellent value. He finished with a Steelers stack of JuJu Smith Schuster and Ben Roethlisberger. While that looks good on paper, Roethlisberger is ranked 10th among quarterbacks this week and Smith-Schuster is 14th for receivers. Sean's team had the top overall projection and if his Steelers duo connects, it may seal the deal, especially with Gurley in the lineup.
sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
It was a gift to land the first pick this week and the consensus continues to be Todd Gurley. From there it was a long wait until my next 2 picks, but the board fell the way that I wanted for the most part. Getting David Johnson at the end of the second round is a gamble, but that offense finally got him going last week and is facing a Minnesota defense that is susceptible to the big play. From there it was pairing a WR/QB and taking another receiver with high projected volume. Adam Thielen is the first receiver to ever open the season with 5 straight 100-yard games, and Roethlisberger/Schuster is always a safe bet. Schuster had a down week with Antonio Brown getting all of the work, but he still had a touchdown and several targets.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
It will all come down to how much the Cardinals try and feature David Johnson. He finally seemed to break through last week with a 2-touchdown performance, but the yards were still not quite there. The Minnesota defense has not been the same from last year and has given up several big plays. They allowed Wendell Smallwood to average over 5 yards per carry last week and Johnson is a much better player.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
The best value had to come from Adam Thielen in the third round. Most people would assume he would fall in this range or after but fail to realize just how special he has been this year. With 5 straight games over 100 yards receiving and already having 3 touchdowns (4 all of last season) he has far surpassed any expectation and is on the level of other guys like Julio, Brown, and Hopkins.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
It is always a little surprising when Rob Gronkowski does not go in a draft and to me, that means he is poised to bounce back and have a good week. The KC defense has been porous at best and with the addition of Gordon and the recent success of Patterson, teams cannot focus on Gronk. I see this as the week he breaks back out and returns to the dominant TE that he is.
KEITH ROBERTS - SLOT 2
Overview: Keith wound up stacking Mike Evans with Jameis Winston in a cushy matchup against the Falcons and their struggling defense. It's not a bad strategy at all. The matchup is favorable and there's little sweating because most teams will pass over Winston in this format, allowing him to be available in the last round. So how did Keith do otherwise? His first pick was Melvin Gordon at Cleveland which could yield decent results, however, Cleveland is a sneaky defense that isn't a pushover, especially at home. His other two picks include T.J. Yeldon at Dallas and Tyreek Hill at New England. Yeldon should see plenty of action, but Dallas can be tough at home. Hill, on the other hand, may wind up being in a points battle with the Patriots. His speed and quickness may give New England fits, but Patrick Mahomes II has been spreading the ball all over, making Hill less valuable. The Bucs stack against Atlanta appears to be the determining factor of success, but Hill may be the hinge player this week.
KEITH ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I was happy with the second pick this week as that locked me into landing Melvin Gordon, who has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers in football. I debated selecting back-to-back running backs to take David Johnson with my second pick, but I instead selected Mike Evans to be sure I had a solid share in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the week. As usual, I knew I would wait on a quarterback this week unless Patrick Mahomes II was sitting there in Round 4, so I intentionally selected Jameis Winston despite Deshaun Watson being slightly higher than him in my rankings to complete what could be a high upside stack of Winston + Evans.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Tyreek Hill is a make or break kind of guy, and he will be exactly that this week. His yardage totals have been mediocre since the Week 1 explosion, and he has been kept out of the end zone in three straight games now. This week is a situation in which Hill could thrive as the Chiefs may actually be playing from behind against a below average Patriots secondary. While Hill may have a tough individual matchup with Jason McCourty, he still has the speed advantage over both McCourty and the Patriots secondary to break a huge play that will make both his week and mine.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Jameis Winston is my value pick here. As I admitted earlier, I did take him despite Deshaun Watson being ranked higher, but Winston has the potential to explode in his first start of 2018. He has plenty of offensive firepower around him and is in a game that could present a very pass-heavy game script with the highest Vegas point total of the week. I fully expect the Buccaneers to be playing from behind for at least a portion of this game, meaning this situation alone could set up Winston to be one of the top quarterbacks of the week.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Rob Gronkowski is the guy for me here. We all know the upside that a guy like Gronkowski presents on a weekly basis despite being held in check since Week 1. Gronkowski has been consistently targeted in this offense and should have a great individual matchup against one of the weakest secondaries in football. The Chiefs have given up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, averaging seven receptions and 91 yards allowed. This game looks to be a shootout as the Chiefs offense will force Tom Brady to pass early and often, and Gronk could very well see his highest workload of the season if he truly is recovered from that nagging ankle injury.
justin howe - SLOT 3
Overview - Justin staggered his picks going RB-WR-RB-WR-QB, stacking Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins and Deshaun Watson in the process. His first pick was Christian McCaffrey, who will be facing a Washington run defense that figures to be a positive, favorable matchup for the Carolina running game. McCaffrey's reception totals have dropped off some in the last few weeks. Look for that to increase this week. DeAndre Hopkins was his second pick and third receiver off the board. Hopkins has benefited from four straight high-yardage games from Deshaun Watson including three straight over 375 yards. The Bills should slow Watson down with a good pass rush, but the two could easily connect for at least one score. Justin's other two picks include Kareem Hunt (at New England) and Stefon Diggs (vs Arizona). The Chiefs ground game could be featured this week in an effort to slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Diggs may have the unfortunate luck of facing Patrick Peterson, which isn't ideal, but he's capable of putting up good numbers any given week.
justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I'm back to chasing running back first foremost, after a brief and unsuccessful foray into the early-quarterback market. I feel much better opening with a usage back in McCaffrey, especially since running back falls off a cliff early this week. I was even sweating whether I'd get Hunt or David Johnson, who represent the tail end of the RB1 pack, early in Round 3. Being able to land both McCaffrey and Hunt loads me up with, in all likelihood, a solid 40-50 touches - with an elite wideout scooped in-between. You can quibble with their outlooks, but not their value in this approach.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Without question, my week hinges upon Deshaun Watson's health. I'm not overly worried about Watson's spot if he ultimately misses - I could sub in Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins and feel fine. But that would hamper DeAndre Hopkins, if only just enough to keep me behind this talented pack of DRAFTers. If this roster is going to bring home a win, it'll be with a great showing from Hopkins, not merely a solid one. I'm banking hard on that connection, so if it's anything less than optimal, I could be in trouble.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I loved getting Hunt as late as I did. With the runners a little thin this week, I took a big gamble on Hopkins over both Hunt and Johnson in Round 2. I had pangs of regret, expecting Sean and Keith to scoop them both. But Hunt stayed on the board, and I was thrilled. The Patriots continue to bleed efficiency to running backs - dating back to last season, 16 of the 23 lead backs they've faced have topped 4.5 yards per carry, and 7 of them have churned out 90 yards or more. Of course, that includes Hunt's NFL debut last year, when went 17 for 148, whizzing past the Patriots' shaky edges over and over. Give Hunt 20 touches this week, and he'll bring home 20 points.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
Yeah, it's Gronkowski. Don't be fooled by the box scores: he's dominant and matchup-proof, and this opponent is custom-built for him. Eric Berry remains out, and Kansas City is already thin and weak at cornerback. Gronkowski will see a ton of coverage from linebackers, slot cornerback Kendall Fuller (who gives up 70 pounds), and the mediocre safeties.
dan hindery - SLOT 4
Overview - With his first two picks, Dan took both main backs in the Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh game, Joe Mixon and James Conner. Neither one is a top matchup, but that doesn't mean production won't be had. Dan was the first to select a quarterback, taking Patrick Mahomes II II in round three. The matchup against New England has the potential to be a high-scoring battle that could catapult Dan into a win this week. His two receivers Davante Adams and Robert Woods finish up his lineup. Adams has a good matchup against the 49ers on Monday Night Football and Dan's betting that Cooper Kupp will miss the game with a concussion, thus elevating Robert Woods as a player to target. It's not a bad strategy that could pay big dividends, but the matchup at Denver may be problematic, even for the Rams potent offense. The hinge player is definitely Mahomes. A good game could easily put him in contention. A great game may seal the deal.
dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Last week, I felt like there was some value available late and mentioned TJ Yeldon and Joe Mixon as the two backs who you could wait on while loading up at wide receiver. This week, I didn’t have any fallback options at running back I liked, so I kept it simple and took running backs with my first two picks. With some of the other high Vegas total games on the slate, it has flown under the radar a bit how fantasy-friendly the Bengals-Steelers game could be. It has a Vegas over/under of 53. Both teams have clear lead backs who are coming off of big games, so I was happy to lock up both James Conner and Joe Mixon.
Unlike running back, wide receiver is incredibly deep this week. It was easy to wait until the final two rounds where there were still plenty of top pass-catching options available. The wide receiver depth made me feel okay about drafting a quarterback earlier than normal. Davante Adams was an easy pick in the fourth round. My toughest decision came with my final pick. I strongly considered pairing Mahomes with Travis Kelce. I also liked Keenan Allen. However, with both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp, I decided to go with Robert Woods. If either Cooks or Kupp can’t go, Woods will be one of the highest-ranked receivers on the slate. Even if both are back, they will have missed some practice time and Woods should have a bigger role than normal.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Patrick Mahomes II will be key. Typically I will wait until the fourth or fifth round to take a quarterback. However, when I saw Mahomes still on the board late in the 3rd round, I decided to switch up the plan. Mahomes has thrown for 300+ yards in four straight games, is averaging 2.8 passing touchdowns per game, and also has rushing touchdowns in two straight weeks. He also has a great matchup in a likely shootout in New England. I need Mahomes to have a big week to take first.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Davante Adams at 4.03 was great value. I almost took him at 3.04 and have him ranked in my top-12 overall this week. Adams has had at least 12 targets in three of the last four games. He is coming off of a huge 9-140-1 against Detroit and has another strong matchup this weekend against San Francisco. With all of the injuries to pass catchers in Green Bay, Adams is a lock for a heavy workload.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Keenan Allen was one of the receivers I would have been very comfortable taking in the fifth round. I don’t expect stud rookie Denzel Ward to shadow Allen and follow him into the slot. The Browns are vulnerable and Allen should have a strong game for the Chargers.
will grant - SLOT 5
Overview - Will elected to secure both Patriots backs James White and Sony Michel against the Chiefs. This strategy allows him to harness the production of the entire ground game, which is also a big piece of the receiving game as well. His first pick, Antonio Brown is a solid piece to a strong core of players. After the Patriots duo, Will took Matt Ryan as the third quarterback off the board. Ryan projects as the 4th ranked quarterback this week in a great matchup at home vs. Tampa Bay. To put the cherry on the cake, Will took his last receiver, Travis Kelce in the last round. Kelce has been a big part of the Chiefs offense collecting three 100-yard games in the last four games with three touchdowns. This is a solid team that may wind up on top, especially if the Patriots rushing duo comes up big. If that happens, Will may run away with the first place finish.
will ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Drafting 5th this week is not fun. The first four running backs are the guys that you’d want and after that, it starts to get a bit sticky. I did not want Ezekiel Elliott this week so I decided to pivot to take Antonio Brown and hope that he’s found his stride. When Elliott went after me, I strongly considered taking Mike Evans, but decided it was better to get a running back in round 2. I took James White because I think the KC defense is going to return to being one of the weakest units in the league next week and I think White does pretty well.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Well, I didn’t PLAN on taking both New England running backs this week, but it sorta worked out that way. That makes Sony Michel the guy who I need to play well if I hope to score well this week. Looking back, the smarter move would have been to take A.J. Green and then take Lynch with my last pick in the draft. I need Michel to play well this week and complement White and help lift my team this week.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I was surprised to see Travis Kelce still available at my last pick in round 5. I have him as my top tight end this week and I think he is going to give the Patriots a lot of trouble. I’d have been happy with him at 4.02. To land him as the last wide receiver / tight end in the draft made me feel a bit better about taking both Patriot running backs.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
If we had a flex position, I’d have taken Jordan Howard with my 6th round pick. Howard has been a bit of a disappointment so far this season, but after a bye week, and facing their former offensive coordinator in Miami, I think that Chicago comes into Miami and beats them up pretty well. That means lots of Howard in the 4th quarter and grinding the Dolphins down as the Bears try to secure their 4th win in a row.
James brimacombe - SLOT 6
Overview: James grabbed the best available player with every pick, but he was forced to pick a running back in the last round, where talent was scarce. His first pick, Ezekiel Elliott faces a tough Jacksonville run defense, which isn't ideal. The Jags defense has allowed only five offensive touchdowns this season. His second round pick, Julio Jones has yet to score this year and was a disappointment in a highly favorable matchup last week against Pittsburgh. He'll have another favorable matchup against the Buccaneers, who he has played well against, but there's still the concern of his lack of scoring. A.J. Green vs. Pittsburgh was James' third-round pick, who may wind up outperforming Jones. He took Tom Brady in the fourth round, who may wind up being his hinge player that determines the success of this team. By skipping running back after the first round, James was stuck picking from a small barrel of talent, where he ultimately decided on Marshawn Lynch. Lynch will have the revenge factor going up against Seattle, his former team. Revenge game or not, Lynch is projected 14th among running backs this week. Other possible backs could've been Carlos Hyde vs LAC or Jordan Howard at MIA. There's still plenty of talent on this team. A strong game from Julio Jones, A.J. Green and Tom Brady may be enough to elevate James to the top.
james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Picking at the turn is never my preferred spot in these 6-man drafts as you often feel like you are getting the leftovers from the running back run and that is what happened with my team with getting Ezekiel Elliott in a tough spot against the Jaguars. I think this is the week that you want to try to get Gurley, Gordon, or McCaffrey with your first-round pick and if you can’t get those three names it is James Conner and Ezekiel Elliott next and that is exactly how our draft turned out. I like the big name wide receivers this week and getting Julio Jones and AJ Green as my duo I was very pleased. As always, I am looking for volume players in my running backs and wide receivers.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Marshawn Lynch is the player to make or break me for the second week in a row. He was my last pick at 5.06 and his matchup against his former team, Seattle, piqued my interest. If this game stays close which it looks like it should, I think Marshawn will see 15+ touches and will have a good shot at punching one if for a touchdown and that is all you can ask for when selecting a running back in the fifth round.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I think AJ Green’s projection on DRAFT this week is too low and he is falling in drafts because of it. To be honest I would be fine with any one of the following receivers this week in Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, or AJ Green as I think all four are very similar this week. The fact that I got Green in the third round in a potential shootout game against the Steelers makes me think he is by far my best value player this week.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
This one is easy as Keenan Allen is a name that I have been drafting in the fourth round in a lot of my 6-man leagues already. Allen is primed for a breakout game soon and against the Browns on the road seems like a decent spot. I like to get Allen when I go RB/RB/WR in drafts and scoop him up in that fourth-round spot. This is a perfect example of how deep the WR position is and why it is wise to start your draft RB/RB or RB/WR/RB.
PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
