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Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 3 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 3 DRAFT:
1.01 Sean Settle
1.02 Justin Howe
1.03 Will Grant
1.04 Dan Hindery
1.05 Keith Roberts
1.06 James Brimacombe
DRAFT RESULTS
DRAFT EVALUATION
SEAN SETTLE - SLOT 1
Overview - Sean was one of two teams (Will was the other) to select a running back in the first round and a receiver in the second round. The first pick granted him Todd Gurley, who walked into three touchdowns last week without breaking a sweat. This week is another home matchup, against the Chargers who pose a little more of a threat than Arizona. He followed with DeAndre Hopkins as the 4th wide receiver off the board and ranked 5th in projections this week. Going RB-WR to start the draft means your second running back in round three is probably going to be the 7th or 8th back off the board. In Sean's case, he selected Dalvin Cook in a favorable home matchup against the Bills. He was the 8th back off the board and is projected 9th. Deshaun Watson and Stefon Diggs conclude his picks and both could wind up being point saviors. Watson gives him the benefit of a stack with Hopkins and Diggs is capable of being a standout receiver any given week. Strong draft, especially if the Houston connection hits.
SEAN ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This week was all about avoiding top players on bad teams. After watching the fall of backs like David Johnson and LeSean McCoy, I am avoiding guys who are playing on bad teams right now. IT really helps when you have the first pick and can take a guy like Gurley to start your team. From there a stack of Watson and Hopkins who finally looked in rhythm last week should produce 10+ targets. Dalvin Cook was the big gamble, but he is facing a Buffalo team that has been dominated on the ground. All three Baltimore running backs had a touchdown in week one and Gurley had three himself last week. Taking both Diggs and Cook from the Vikings may pose an issue, but both players should see a heavy workload.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Dalvin Cook is going to be the key piece this week. He has the best matchup against the worst rushing defense in the league. They have given up 6 rushing touchdowns already this season and have found no answers on defense. The biggest issue is the usage of Cook has not been what was expected. Kirk Cousins threw the ball 48 times last week and the Vikings only rushed it 18 times. The game flow should favor the running game this week against Buffalo and Cook will get the chance to show that he is healthy.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Finding Hopkins at the end of the second round has to be the best value for my team. His quarterback seems to have turned the corner last week and with Will Fuller healthy on the other side, defenses will not be able to double cover or always give help over the top on Hopkins. Hopkins should see 10+ targets again this week and his value will only go up the better Watson plays the rest of the season.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
The key here is a healthy Carson Wentz. If I could do it again and take one more player, it would be to stack Wentz with either Ertz or Agholor. They have a great matchup and Wentz is looking to show that he has not lost anything after his injury. Look for big numbers from Philadelphia this week.
Justin howe - SLOT 2
Overview: Justin bucked the trend and selected at quarterback in the first round, Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have yet to play a home game and Mahomes is already the most talked about quarterback in the league. The rest of the draft included David Johnson, Tyreek Hill, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kenyan Drake. The two receivers in the third and fourth rounds were excellent value. They were selected 5th and 10th off the board and are projected 3rd and 8th. Kenyan Drake is projected 12th this week and was the 12th back selected. David Johnson has been less than inspiring with a new regime calling the shots in Arizona, but perhaps that will change? Johnson still has plenty of talent and is capable of scoring anywhere on the field. If he can turn it around and if the Chiefs stack plays out well, this team can contend.
justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I absolutely never prioritize a specific quarterback in a DRAFT. I tend to fill the spot with my fourth or fifth pick, pairing him with a receiver or running back I've taken. But this week, I decided to see what kind of build I could expect by pushing in all my chips on the hottest quarterback on Earth. Mahomes doesn't really project as well as the top-shelf running backs I passed on, but this is an experiment to find the path to an emphatic win. And if Mahomes and Hill keep rolling, I think I've put together a group that can fill in the gaps. I didn't enjoy DRAFTing this way, and I don't necessarily recommend it. But I wanted to see if it could be done with any confidence, and it was.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Without question, the week hinges on Mahomes. If he doesn't erupt again, I'll sorely miss the consistent usage of a top running back, a tough spot to fill this week. Again, landing Johnson (theoretically) helps, but not enough to tip the risk back in my direction. Mahomes needs to not only perform, but generally outperform all of the quarterbacks my leaguemates chose. And even if he does, it won't help me much No, I need a specific happenstance - Mahomes peppering Hill with deep balls and Hill cashing in - to pull away here. I won last week thanks largely to the Kirk Cousins-Adam Thielen stack, but this is nothing more than an all-in play on one specific stack, and it's nerve-wracking.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
David Johnson isn't fun to target right now, that's for sure. But to get him with my second pick was what made the Mahomes-first strategy even palatable. Johnson is still all the Cardinals have. He's dominating the backfield, and opportunity will come with (a) anything close to a neutral game script (and regression is coming, even for these Cardinals), and/or (b) a shift to a Josh Rosen-led offense that takes on more of a ground-it-out style. Either way, Johnson's backfield stranglehold locks him into a big chunk of any normal workload, so Johnson remains an upper-tier running back and I love the discount.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I thought about Zach Ertz here as well, but it's definitely one of the Vikings wideouts. They're a magical duo, and they've found a downfield-minded deep-ball artist of a quarterback. There won't be a week I won't look for their names, especially against this Bills unit. Even in blowout losses, they routinely allow splash plays and long touchdowns.
WILL GRANT - SLOT 3
Overview - Will had the highest projected lineup according to our Lineup Optimizer this week. Looking at his draft of Alvin Kamara, Julio Jones, James Conner, Tom Brady and Travis Kelce, the hinge pick for me was James Conner. The second running back after going RB-WR to begin the draft is a tough find. In Will's case, he drafted Conner as the 9th back off the board despite having the 3rd highest projection. Impressive. Tom Brady is always a good bet to produce and he'll be doing it against the defense that he knows from his time with Matt Patricia. It could get ugly in Detroit. Travis Kelce is one of the better tight ends in the league and now he's on one of the best offenses in the league. A productive quarterback can make good players great, and great player elite. Kelce is in line for a strong year despite the down Week 1. This team looks strong on paper for sure.
WILL ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I wanted to get 2 running backs and a wide receiver with my first three picks and given I was drafting at the #3 slot, I committed to taking the best available players. I was pleasantly surprised when Alvin Kamara fell to me at #3 and I was happy to land him there. By the time my pick came back to me in the second round, I expected more wide receivers to be off the board. Julio Jones was too good to pass up, given the fact that he’s averaging 14 targets a game and facing a suspect New Orleans defense. I wanted Tyreek Hill with my third pick, but Justin sniped him so I ‘settled’ for James Conner, a guy who has looked great filling in for Le’Veon Bell this year. The Steelers need to win this week and I think Conner gets his fair share of action this week.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Travis Kelce could have another big week or could disappear again like he did back in week one. I feel like Atlanta needs Julio Jones to win. I feel like Kansas City could lose the Travis Kelce pages of their playbook and still put up 30 points this week for their home opener. If Kelce is big, I think I have a shot to win it all. If not, I could be scraping to finish in the top 5.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I think Tom Brady is underrated this week. The Patriots were thumped pretty hard by the Jaguars last week and they always come back hard from a loss. They head to Detroit on Sunday night, the place that the Jets put up 48 points on the Lions just two weeks ago. Brady could have a four-touchdown game this week, and they’ll be trying to score until the final minute of the game. Brady should be a decent play this week and I was very happy to land him in the 4th round.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I’m not as impressed with the running backs after the top 12, but there are plenty of interesting receivers in the 13-16 range. Stefon Diggs is a guy that I would love to add to this group, and I think he’s going to do well this week against the lowly Buffalo Bills. Adam Thielen would be another guy who I would love to have and think both he and Diggs are in for a big week.
DAN HINDERY - SLOT 4
Overview - Dan was one of two teams to select a receiver and two running backs to begin the draft (Keith was the other). In Dan's case he took Michael Thomas and followed him up with Christian McCaffrey and Tevin Coleman. One note - both of Dan's running backs play at home this week, which adds to their value. McCaffrey was targeted 15 times last week catching 14. Carolina is definitely using him as a weapon in many ways possible. Don't be shocked to see the carries increase more in the coming weeks. Tevin Coleman played well in DeVonta Freeman's absence and is worthy of a start against the Saints. Keenan Allen may find it tough against the Rams cover corners, but the targets will be there. Dan finished the draft with Ben Roethlisberger as the 4th quarterback off the board, who is projected 7th. If Keenan Allen can score on the Rams and if Roethlisberger can improve on his road struggles this team has a chance to compete.
DAN ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
After Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara (a two-man top tier in Week 3) are off the board, there isn’t a running back this week who quite checks all of the boxes (talent, expected workload, matchup, and fully functioning offense). Thus, I feel it makes sense to grab one of the top wide receivers in the middle of the first round ahead of the second tier of backs. Michael Thomas was my pick just narrowly over Antonio Brown. You can still get two running backs from the tier just below Gurley/Kamara in the second and third rounds and I feel pretty good about the pairing of Christian McCaffrey and Tevin Coleman. Both should see 20 touches and have big-play ability. Quarterback and wide receiver are deep enough, the options are still strong in the 4th and 5th rounds. My late picks, Keenan Allen and Ben Roethlisberger, both have serious upside this week.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
I probably need Christian McCaffrey to find the end zone at least once to win this week. McCaffrey has done everything but score through two weeks. He already has 239 total yards and 20 receptions. He should again be a yardage and receptions monster against the Bengals, who have allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs since the start of the 2017 season. Due to his usage and matchup, McCaffrey has one of the highest floors on the entire slate. He is a safe selection in the second round. If he scores touchdowns, he is a week-winner.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I love getting Tevin Coleman in the middle of the third round. With Devonta Freeman out last week, Coleman had 21 touches and put up 125 total yards against the elite Carolina run defense. This week, Atlanta has the fourth-highest team total on the slate (28 points) in a potential shootout against New Orleans and Coleman should again see a heavy workload as both a runner and pass catcher. It shouldn’t be a surprise if he puts up similar numbers to his counterpart Alvin Kamara on Sunday.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
It speaks to the tremendous depth of the wide receiver/tight end position this week that A.J. Green went undrafted coming off of a 3-touchdown week against a tough Ravens defense. It will be a similarly difficult matchup on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers, but Green is an elite talent who has proven matchup-proof. With Joe Mixon out, the Bengals will likely lean even more heavily on Green in Week 3 as he looks to build upon his hot start.
keith roberts - SLOT 5
Overview - The end of the draft usually means a good receiver will be available in the first round, and sure enough, Keith wound up with Antonio Brown. Only three running backs were taken in the first, which left Melvin Gordon available with his second pick and 5th back off the board, who is projected 4th. After taking a back and receiver to begin the draft, Keith elected to take his second running back, Kareem Hunt in the third round. Mike Evans and Smith Schuster were available at this slot, so there were other options and decisions to make with this hinge third round pick. Kareem Hunt is projected 14th this week and was selected 11th. Keith concluded his draft with Rob Gronkowski and Cam Newton. Gronkowski is capable of a big game any given week and Newton can score in a variety of ways. He's at home (vs CIN) which also adds to his value.
keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My top strategy going in was to get a piece of the Chiefs / 49ers game, with a particular eye on grabbing Patrick Mahomes as early as the third round. As you can see, that obviously did not pan out with Mahomes going second overall in the draft, so I ended up grabbing Kareem Hunt as my second running back. I would have preferred Tyreek Hill in this spot, but he was swiped a few picks sooner. Hunt has undoubtedly been a disappointment when stacked up against the rest of this Chiefs offense, but he should have a good shot at bouncing back this week against a 49ers defense that has allowed 21 receptions and 163 rushing yards to running backs through the first two games this season.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Antonio Brown as my first round selection will make or break my week. Brown is in a great spot here with a high projected point total for the Steelers and a positive matchup for the passing attack. Tampa Bay’s secondary has allowed the second most passing yards this season with poor play coming from their outside cornerbacks. Brown has the advantage in pretty much any matchup, but he is particularly poised for success this week. The primary concerns here include what kind of play we get from “Road Ben” in addition to any negative fallout from Brown’s Twitter fiasco earlier this week. As long as his usage stays consistent, Brown should perform up to first round value.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I was thrilled to see Cam Newton come my way as the fifth quarterback off the board. He was my second overall quarterback squaring off against a Bengals defense that has given up the third-most passing yards this season. The Bengals have also coughed up the fifth-most passing yards to running backs, which bodes well for Newton’s favorite target and easy outlet Christian McCaffrey. At home in a game within a three-point spread, it should stay close and keep Newton passing the ball on a consistent basis. With the rushing upside he presents on a weekly basis, Newton was a great pick as the next-to-last player off the board.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Jordan Howard would be my selection here. He is coming off a down outing against the Seahawks, but that was a particularly tough matchup. The Cardinals have a solid interior defensive line, but they can be beaten on outside runs with the talented Bears tackles blocking. What has me most interested here though is the projected game script. The Cardinals offense has been atrocious while the Bears defense has been outstanding, so I am projecting the Bears to be up early and lean heavily on the run to protect their lead. Jordan Howard already is the clear top option in this backfield, and with the coaching staff mentioning he needs even more carries in addition to the increasing involvement he has seen in the passing game, Howard could easily be a candidate for over 25 touches this week.
james brimacombe - SLOT 6
Overview: James drew the last slot and was rewarded Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott with his first two picks. Not a bad combination at running back, especially from the back side of the draft. He followed that up with Mike Evans in the third round, who has a home game against the Steelers who just allowed 6 touchdown passes to the Chiefs. His last two picks were Odell Beckham Jr, who is capable of scoring big games, and Matt Ryan who is at home against the Saints. Ryan is long known as a better fantasy play when he plays at home. If he can stay clean in the pocket, he'll produce and that's been a common theme for Atlanta at home. A solid draft from the 6-slot.
james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I wanted volume players this week and by that, I mean players that will either see a heavy amount of carries for my running backs and potential for 10+ targets for my wide receivers. It ended well with pairing Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott at running back and following it up with both Mike Evans and Odell Beckham at receiver.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
The fact that I have two Giants on my roster is probably not the smartest move even with it being their two best with Barkley and Beckham. I will need the Giants vs Texans game to be one of the shootout games of the week and from what we have seen through two weeks that is probably not the safest bets.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I think picking at the turn worked in my favor right at the start with landing both Elliott and Barkley. Sure, they are not the big names like Gurley or Kamara but they both have very similar upside and having them paired together in a week that might have some star running backs sitting out with an injury really helps increase their value.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I like the Eagles chances this week at home against the Colts with a healthy Carson Wentz back in the picture. I think you could roster Wentz, Ertz, or Agholor and feel good about it. These are all guys you can essentially get in the last couple of rounds of 6-man contests but might have better value in 8 or 10 man type of contests.
PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
