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Each fantasy football season the landscape of the skill positions change. One year offers more depth, while another turns into a studs and duds feel to the available player pool. Dissecting key drop off points in the positional average draft position (ADP) is critical to maximizing draft day value. Here are the key pivot points for 2018 at wide receiver:
THE BIG nine
The initial tier includes wide receivers with a stranglehold on their No. 1 depth chart position for targets and minimal questions about their profile and quality of quarterback. Here are a few of the highlight target players
All three are typically gone in Round 1 of stock PPR formats. The one issue here is the positional value compared to taking a running back in their place and addressing wide receiver in a future round.
Similar to the Top 3, this group has minimal individual and quarterback questions to depress their outlook. One of these options may even last until Round 3.
THE Michael crabtree THRESHOLD
Ideally, a balanced draft approach in the early rounds features a Michael Crabtree-level wide receiver in the WR2 spot for a roster. Crabtree has a sturdy floor and a reasonable ceiling. One exception is finding value with Rob Gronkowski in Round 2-3 and blending with strong running back value and Crabtree being a failsafe as WR1. Here are the wide receiver targets leading up to the Michael Crabtree zone of ADP:
- T.Y. Hilton: Potential value with a healthy Andrew Luck
- Amari Cooper: Bounce-back candidate
- Larry Fitzgerald: A rich man's Michael Crabtree with a high floor
- Brandin Cooks: Underrated in terms of consistency in recent years
- Allen Robinson: One of the lower ADP options for likely No. 1 option
- Demaryius Thomas: In Fitzgerald mold, outstanding WR1/2 target
- Chris Hogan: High upside until Julian Edelman returns
- Marvin Jones: Another underrated recent performer
- Corey Davis: Biggest benefactor potential of Tennessee's offensive reboot from down 2017
- Michael Crabtree: Likely target load to support mid-WR2 or better fantasy production
- Julian Edelman: Absorb the early missed games for rest-of-season impact
THE potential wr1 values
These are the lower-cost wide receivers who could be the early-season WR1 for their NFL depth chart:
- Devin Funchess: Unlikely to be challenged by D.J. Moore to start the season
- DeVante Parker: Fading in appeal and outlook, but qualifies for the list
- Nelson Agholor: Could be early-season WR1 as Alshon Jeffery returns from shoulder surgery
- Kelvin Benjamin: Fits criteria perfectly
- Kenny Stills: The if-DeVante-Parker-is-not-the-answer-in-Miami play
- Allen Hurns: Low-cost bet for Dallas passing game
- Josh Doctson: Fading appeal, but wide open in Washington
- Michael Gallup: Seeing consistent first-team reps
- Danny Amendola: Could replace at least 75% of Jarvis Landry production, especially if DeVante Parker falters
- Paul Richardson Jr: Wide open in Washington
THE strong wr2 values
The exception to the 'seek No.1 receivers on NFL depth charts' rule is a WR2 with minimal competition for targets from a No. 3 target (wide receiver or tight end), or the WR2 on a potentially elite passing game.
- Will Fuller
- Randall Cobb
- Pierre Garcon
- Tyler Lockett
- Ted Ginn Jr
- Mike Williams
- Tyrell Williams
- Christian Kirk
- John Brown
- Jermaine Kearse
- Ryan Grant
Overall Strategy
Putting the entire position into a draft plan, here are some key targets which fit with the other skill positions to form an initial depth chart:
- Davante Adams or Mike Evans (mid-to-late Round 2)
- Demaryius Thomas (Round 4) or Michael Crabtree (Round 5-6)
- Randall Cobb (Round 8-9) or Kelvin Benjamin (Round 10)
- Mike Williams, Marqise Lee, or Tyler Lockett (Round 11-12)
- John Brown (Round 12-14)
- Danny Amendola (Round 15)
The draft ranges are based on ADP, so be prepared to go a little earlier when needed. The first key variable is if a running back like Christian McCaffrey or Joe Mixon, or Rob Gronkowski are preferred in Round 2. Another is how the running back position looks in Rounds 4-5 as there are plenty of targets at running back and wide receiver here between Lamar Miller, Royce Freeman, Mark Ingram, Larry Fitzgerald, and Demaryius.
With running back values stretching into the double-digit rounds (Peyton Barber, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Jeremy Hill) for early season roles, plus a late-round approach to quarterback and tight end, being selective at wide receiver is key in 2018.