Cracking FanDuel: Week 10 - Footballguys

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 9 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

• Offensive scoring has been up all season-long and week ten has eleven teams that are expected to score 24+ points on the 22-team main slate. Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Listed by descending expected team points:
  
  
  • Kansas City Chiefs - 33.00 points (vs ARI)
  • Los Angeles Chargers - 30.00 points (at OAK)
  • Los Angeles Rams - 29.75 points (vs SEA)
  • New Orleans Saints - 29.75 points (at CIN)
  • Green Bay Packers - 28.75 points (vs MIA)
  • Atlanta Falcons - 28.25 points (at CLE)
  • New England Patriots - 27.00 points (at TEN)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 26.75 points (vs WAS)
  • Chicago Bears - 25.25 points (vs DET)
  • Indianapolis Colts - 24.75 points (vs JAC)
  • Cincinnati Bengals - 24.25 points (vs NO)

• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,600) is exceptional value - Tampa Bay's passing offense is averaging 368 passing yards and 2.8 passing TDs per contest since week 6. During that same span, Washington's funnel defense is allowing 304 yards and 2.0 touchdowns through the air. The Buccaneers have an expected team total of 26.75 points and I expect nearly all of their scoring to come through the air. WR Mike Evans ($7,500) and TE OJ Howard ($6,500) are solid stacking options.
  
  
• The studs at the running back positions have great matchups - Alvin Kamara, Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, and Todd Gurley all have two touchdown potential this week in games where their teams are heavily favored. Because of his price ($10,800), I will be fading Todd Gurley again this week despite him being my number one player at the position. In at least some of my cash games, I will be rostering Kamara, Gordon, and Hunt and look to go cheap at wide receiver and tight end to fit these players into my builds. In nearly all of my cash+ lineups, I will be rostering at least two of these backs.
  
  
• RB Chris Carson - Does he scratch, and will you know in time? - If Chris Carson scratches early, I will have RB Mike Davis ($5,800) in nearly all of my builds. The problem is we may not know early because the Seahawks don't play until the afternoon. If you do create builds with Mike Davis, make sure to put him in the flex position so you have an option to move off him via late swap should you opt to do that.
  
  
• Kelce is the best tight end on this slate, but I am fading him this week - The Cardinals have not allowed over 10 fantasy points to a tight end since Week 1 when Jordan Reed compiled 4 catches for 48 yards and a score. The Cardinals have not allowed a touchdown to tight ends from week 3 to present.
  
  
• WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,400) draws the softer coverage - Green Bay's team total of 28.75 suggests the passing game should put up some numbers. Since week 6, the Dolphins have given up an average of 2.5 passing touchdowns a game including 5 to Deshaun Watson on just 20 passing attempts in week 8. WR Randall Cobb is hobbled and will be limited at a minimum. Because of his low price, high upside, and a great matchup, I will be rostering Marquez in all my cash and cash+ builds this weekend.
  
  
• If QB Josh Allen scratches, pay up for the Jets defense ($4,900) with confidence - I like the Jets defense this week no matter who plays quarterback even with their lofty price tag. But if Nathan Peterman is behind center, I LOVE the Jets to get even more interceptions and sacks than I am currently projecting.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest cost)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / WR Tyreek Hill ($17,400)
• QB Drew Brees / RB Alvin Kamara ($17,200)
• QB Drew Brees / WR Michael Thomas ($17,000)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Cooper Kupp ($14,600)
• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick / WR Mike Evans ($15,100)
• QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($14,000)
• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick / WR DeSean Jackson ($13,900)
• QB Matthew Stafford / WR Marvin Jones Jr($13,000)
• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick / TE O.J. Howard ($14,100)
• QB Tom Brady / WR Josh Gordon ($15,000)
• RB Kareem Hunt / TD Kansas City Chiefs ($13,600)
• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick / WR Adam Humphries ($13,300)
• QB Baker Mayfield / TE David Njoku ($12,800)
• QB Marcus Mariota / WR Corey Davis ($12,500)
• QB Josh McCown / WR Quincy Enunwa ($11,200)
• RB Aaron Jones / TD Green Bay Packers ($10,400)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Mitchell Trubisky, Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Baker Mayfield
• RBs: Nick Chubb, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard, Isaiah Crowell
• WRs: Marvin Jones, Calvin Ridley, DeSean Jackson, Julian Edelman, Larry Fitzgerald
• TEs: Austin Hooper, C.J. Uzomah, Eric Ebron, Ricky Seals-Jones
• Def: Patriots, Saints, Buccaneers, Colts

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash (Projected Points = 137.4

• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB - $7,600
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO - $8,800
• RB Melvin Gordon, LAC - $8,900
• TE Jordan Reed, WAS - $5,200
• WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling, GB - $5,400
• WR Kenny Golladay, DET - $5,800
• WR Michael Thomas, NO - $8,600
• Flex RB Mike Davis, SEA - $5,800
• TD Green Bay Packers - $3,900

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash (Projected Points = 137.2

• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB - $7,600
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO - $8,800
• RB Melvin Gordon, LAC - $8,900
• TE David Njoku, CLE - $5,400
• WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling, GB - $5,400
• WR Kenny Golladay, DET - $5,800
• WR Marvin Jones, DET - $6,200
• Flex RB David Johnson, ARI - $6,900
• TD New York Jets - $4,900

Sample Roster 3 ($60K) - Cash+ (Projected Points = 136.1

• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, $7,600
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO - $8,800
• RB Melvin Gordon, LAC - $8,900
• TE Jordan Reed, WAS - $5,200
• WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling, GB - $5,400
• WR Mike Evans, TB - $7,500
• WR Kenny Golladay, DET - $5,800
• Flex RB Mike Davis, SEA - $5,800
• TD New York Jets - $4,900

Sample Roster 4 ($60K) - Cash+ (Projected Points = 134.0

• QB Marcus Mariota, TEN - $6,700
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO - $8,800
• RB Melvin Gordon, LAC - $8,900
• TE David Njoku, CLE - $5,400
• WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling, GB - $5,400
• WR Corey Davis, TEN - $5,800
• WR Michael Thomas, NO - $8,600
• Flex RB Aaron Jones, GB - $6,500
• TD Green Bay Packers - $3,900