With mandatory mini-camps now upon us, the time to start searching for market inefficiencies in ADP data is now. Whether you’re currently churning through Best Ball drafts or getting an early jump on research for your redraft leagues, deciding which late-round players are worth reaching for ahead of their respective ADPs is an important exercise.
The following eight players are routinely available in the double-digit rounds of early drafts but have paths towards becoming every-week fantasy starters. For as long as their current ADPs hold, prioritize them in your late-round draft plans.
At this time last year, Jameis Winston was widely considered an ascending talent, ready to stake his claim as an elite fantasy quarterback. One injury-dampened season later, he’s available at a four-round discount from his 2017 draft cost. What we’re seeing with Winston is a clear example of market overcorrection due to recency bias.
Last year, Winston’s sprained AC joint didn’t place him on the injury report until Week 7 and didn’t prevent him from playing until Week 10. But it’s been reported the shoulder injury originally occurred back in Week 3 -- only the second game of the season for Tampa Bay. After taking a three-week break to rest the injury, Winston returned to finish the season as the top-scoring fantasy quarterback from Weeks 13-17.
Despite the bum throwing shoulder, Winston set career-highs in completion percentage, yards per game, and yards per attempt in 2017, while also trimming his interception rate to a career-low 2.5%. Add in the strength and depth of Tampa Bay’s offense at every skill position, and the case can easily be made Winston is once again positioned for a breakout year. The difference from last year is the expected improvement is not already priced into his ADP.
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