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True Fantasy Points: Week 7 Update

A stats-based guide for identifying buy-low and sell-high candidates.

It's time to update my True Fantasy Points (TFP) math given what's happened in the first six weeks of the 2017 NFL season. If you're unfamiliar with how my TFP system works, here are the links to my preseason articles:

  1. Quarterback TFP
  2. Running back TFP
  3. Wide receiver TFP
  4. Tight end TFP

As succinctly as I can describe my system, I calculate TFP by multiplying players' "true" efficiency stats by their opportunity, and then applying Footballguys' standard scoring system to the result:

  1. For quarterbacks, my opportunity measure is pass attempts, and the efficiency stats I turn into "true" stats are Yards per Attempt (YPA), Touchdowns per Attempt (TDPA), and Interceptions per Attempt (INTPA).
  2. For running backs, my opportunity measures are carries (in the running game) and routes run (in the passing game), and the efficiency stats I turn into "true" stats are Yards per Carry (YPC), Touchdowns per Carry (TDPC), Receptions per Route Run (RPRR), Yards per Route Run (YPRR), and Touchdowns per Route Run (TDPRR).
  3. For wide receivers and tight ends, my opportunity measure is routes run, and the efficiency stats I turn into "true" stats are RPRR, YPRR, and TDPRR.

As an example, in Rob Gronkowski's tenure with the Patriots, he has a True RPRR of 16.04%, a YPRR of 2.36, and a TDPRR of 2.39%. Given that he's run 162 routes thus far in 2017, that means Gronkowski should be expected to have 26.0 receptions for 382 yards and 3.87 touchdowns, which translates to 61.5 standard points. In comparison, Gronkowski's actually scored 64.1 standard points, which means he's currently at 2.6 points above his "true" fantasy scoring skill.

With that quick explainer out of the way, what follows is my offering of statistical evidence and advice so as to help you identify players to sell high and players to buy low as we head into the second half of the fantasy football season.


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