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Draft This, Not That: Target-Avoid Players by Round

Streamlining a draft plan into target and avoid players by round

Cost is key for fantasy football drafts as a player can be a screaming value in Round 5, but squeezing all the profit out if snagging them in Round 3. In the style of Draft This, Not That here are the standout target and avoid players for 2017 drafts:

* ADP data 'after August 1, 2017' for 12-team redraft leagues*

Round 1

Draft This

Any of the 'Big 2' running backs

Without Ezekiel Elliott at the top of the draft, David Johnson and LeVeon Bell stand alone as clear luxury selections at 1.01 and 1.02. Without separation from 1.03 to the later 1st, having a later pick is the next best draft position.

Melvin Gordon

Gordon is the favorite value option in the later first. With no Danny Woodhead for most of 2016, Gordon was commonly among the top running backs in the league on a weekly basis in snap rate (north of 90%) and usage. Woodhead is gone to Baltimore and Branden Oliver (recovering from Achilles injury) is the closest replacement as the Chargere eschewed the running back position in their off-season to-do list. 

Not That

Wide receiver with the exception of Jordan Nelson, if pressed at running back options, late in the round

While other owners pay a higher price for Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and potentially other receivers mixed into the earlier Round 1 zone, Jordy Nelson is the value play if going receiver in the first. Nelson has 13+ touchdowns in three of his last four healthy seasons and finished in the top-2 of fantasy receivers each time. Nelson is the unquestioned No.1 receiver for Aaron Rodgers and has seen 150+ targets each of the last two seasons (not counting his missed 2015 year).


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