The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 8 Votes
Matt Ryan, Atlanta
Phil Alexander: Prior to last year's MVP performance, Ryan had exactly one cumulative top-5 fantasy finish (2012) in his previous eight seasons. If you're okay with Ryan's current asking price, you're ignoring an unsustainable 7.1% touchdown rate (nearly a full 2% above his previous career high) and the departure of Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator. Shanahan was replaced by Steve Sarkasian, whose schemes at Washington and USC featured power running and lots of plays from the shotgun. By contrast, Shanahan used an outside zone scheme with Ryan taking most of his snaps from under center. The expectation is Sarkasian won't tinker much with what worked so well last season, but it's still another reason to question paying the career year tax to get Ryan when the quarterback position is so deep.