Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 2 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each particpant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
Official DRAFT Scoring Format
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
The participants for the Week 2 Draft:
1.01 Sean Settle
1.02 James Brimacombe
1.03 Keith Roberts
1.04 Devin Knotts
1.05 Dan Hindery
1.06 Justin Howe
DRAFT Results
Draft Evaluation
Sean Settle - slot 1
Overview: It's difficult to not like this team. Sean did a great job of assembling his running backs and receivers while managing to mix in Aaron Rodgers at quarterback in a game that favors offense. The Green Bay at Atlanta Sunday Night game is projected to be a high-scoring affair with an over/under of 53.5 points. Only the New England at New Orleans game is higher (55) this week. I would've liked this team more if Sean elected to take Devonta Freeman at 5.01 who is David Dodds 6th ranked running back in 0.5 PPR scoring this week. Dalvin Cook is not a bad option, but for my liking, the Freeman play, at home, with the high-scoring projection would've been my pick. Larry Fitgerald could pay dividends this week especially with David Johnson not a part of the game plan. Last year the two combined for 49% of the team's completions. The target percentage to Fitzgerald with Johnson out of the lineup could be one of the highest in the league.
Sean's commentary on his draft:
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My strategy was to draft the best overall player I could with my first pick and then to focus on playing matchups rather than using season long rankings to determine my picks. The toughest position to fill is always running back, especially when 12 are being drafted. I was able to take the top running back first overall followed with the top quarterback in Aaron Rogers who is playing a porous Atlanta secondary.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
I am most excited about Larry Fitzgerald this week. While injuries are never a good thing, with David Johnson being out the Cardinals will have to rely more on their passing game for the rest of the season. This should bump Fitzgerald’s already high number of targets and increase his production.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Aaron Rodgers came with the best value at the end of the second round. He is the top-rated quarterback for season long and has a very good matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. With an elite core of wide receivers that are finally healthy, I expect him to put up great numbers this week.
James Brimacombe - Slot 2
Overview: I get why Ezekiel Elliott is a high pick this week, but I don't love the matchup on the road at Denver. The Broncos held Melvin Gordon to 54 yards rushing last week. He did score a receiving touchdown, but was not a factor running the ball. I have a feeling Elliott could suffer a similar fate. At pick 1.02 you want a player who fits the bill in several categories. I don't see that from Elliott this week. Keenan Allen sandwiched in between Jordy Nelson and Larry Fitzgerald seems off. If Philip Rivers can hit him on two touchdowns, all is forgiven, but that pick feels like a reach. I would've selected Tyreek Hill there myself, especially with the return touchdowns awarded in this format. It's hard to draft a perfect team in this format and I'm against two of James' picks. I do love Leonard Fournette, Michael Thomas and Russell Wilson. All are players with promise and/or a good matchup.
James' commentary on his draft
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
In these five player drafts I like to make sure I have my pre-rankings set well in advance and adjust them as news and information come in. The key for the 6-Team drafts is to find your favorite 6 quarterbacks, 12 running backs, and 12 wide receivers and have them ready to go. In this style, there is a premium at the running back position as there will be 12 players drafted so I like to get those two positions filled within my first three picks. I went with an RB-WR-RB-WR-QB draft which is usually the way I go if not RB-RB-WR-WR-QB. I was debating going with Ezekiel Elliott or Melvin Gordon at the 1.02 spot as they are both heavy volume players and never seem to leave the field. The Broncos are known to have a top defense but most of that comes from the pass defense and they have some holes in their run defense so I liked my chances with Elliott this week. I paired him up with rookie Leonard Fournette who looked outstanding in his debut and he is another guy that will see 20+ touches. I like to wait until the last round to draft my quarterback in these leagues as I know I am guaranteed a top six quarterback and that is who I got with Russell Wilson against the 49ers who is set for a bounce back game.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
I am most excited about Ezekiel Elliott and the volume of work that comes with him. He is coming off a 29 touch (24 rushes, 5 reception) game and was in on 60-of-74 of the offensive snaps. He did not find the end zone in Week 1 and will be hungry to get that first touchdown of the season. For the Cowboys to hang with the Broncos this week they are going to have to look at controlling the game with their run game and it all starts with Elliott this week and that is why he is my top play over LeVeon Bell and Melvin Gordon.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Waiting at quarterback always makes me feel like I get the best value at that position. Getting Russell Wilson with my last pick seemed like a no brainer as he is in a prime bounce back spot against the 49ers. The Seahawks looked bad on offense in general last week and now getting the 49ers at home they will look to put some points on the board. With the struggle in their run game, it all starts with Russell Wilson this week. Also when taking a quarterback as your last pick you will likely always find value in your running back and wide receiver spots in the first four rounds as there will be other teams that draft their quarterbacks early.
keith roberts - slot 3
Overview: I love the Tom Brady pick at pick 1.03. He was the only quarterback to be selected in the first round and I believe it's warranted. Brady and the Patriots struggled against a good Chiefs defense (especially when Kansas City still had Eric Berry making plays) but from my vantage point, Brady didn't look his age. Perhaps he was a little rusty, but still capable from a passing standpoint. There were opportunities to score through the air, but interference calls and Mike Gillislee's goal line abilities took away from Brady's touchdowns in the box score. He'll bounce back against the Saints. If he doesn't, it may be time to panic. I don't love LeSean McCoy and Todd Gurley at running back for Keith this week. McCoy will be on the road in Carolina, who held the 49ers to 56 yards rushing last week on the road, including 8 rushing yards in the second half. McCoy also lost a touchdown plunge last week when Mike Tolbert's name was called at the goal line. Coach Sean McDermott knows Tolbert and trusts his ability to punch it in. That's not the best news for McCoy. Todd Gurley may be on a more potent offense, but he still managed just over 2.0 yards per carry in a primo matchup against the Colts and their injury-riddled defense. I'm concerned about Gurley, because we saw similar lower numbers last year. Mike Evans and Doug Baldwin are good receiving options this week. Keith may need them and a big game from Brady to win.
keith's COMMENTARY ON HIS DRAFT:
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I specifically wanted Tom Brady on my team this week, and that is what I built my strategy around. With the third pick, I had a good feeling that I would get him behind a couple of running backs coming off the board first. I then proceeded to draft based on pure value according to my rankings. With this draft format consisting of a shallow roster and quick turnaround, it is very important to have the top end of your rankings buttoned up. This will be an immense help as you move from round to round, having to react quickly to picks of others who likely have similar players ranked near the top. I was very pleased with how this team turned out as I managed to find great value with nearly every pick.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
I am by far most excited about Tom Brady. Brady has a premium matchup this week against the Saints defense that had Sam Bradford looking like a league MVP as he racked up 346 passing yards and three touchdowns on his way to the week’s 2nd best quarterback rating of 143.0. The Saints secondary has been bad for a while, and it does not appear to be improving this season as they will be without one of their best cornerbacks in Delvin Breaux for at least half of this season. Brady did not look sharp last week, but he should be fully expected to bounce back in a much better matchup here. This game also sports the highest point total of the week with the Patriots owning the top spot on projected implied team totals.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I view LeSean McCoy as the best value on my team, despite selecting him with my second pick. McCoy was the fifth running back off the board, yet the second ranked running back according to my projections. McCoy is what this Bills offense must revolve around to be successful. He was very heavily relied upon last week with 22 carries and five receptions for 169 total yards. Despite tough rushing matchup this week, McCoy is a running back you can rely on to get plenty of volume regardless. I also expect him to find space out of the backfield to haul in plenty of passes as Tyrod Taylor’s best check down option.
devin knotTs - SLOT 4
Overview: I like every pick but one in Devin's draft, but he nailed the receiver position with Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson so I want to start there. Stealing Brown at pick 2.03 was brilliant, but doing again with Nelson at 4.03 may be the golden ticket to Devin winning this week. By not taking a receiver with his first pick Devin was able to secure the Week 1 darling Kareem Hunt. I doubt we will see Hunt come close to his Week 1 performance, but a steady game with at least one touchdown is definitely a possibility. His position-mate Ty Montgomery isn't as sexy of a pick, but the matchup makes up for it. The high-scoring projection of 53.5 points in the Green Bay at Atlanta game is enough for me to be okay with the pick. Montgomery didn't have super stats last week but he commanded 19 of the team's 21 carries, which tells me he's the lead back for the Packers and they will use him throughout the entire game. The pick I didn't like as much was Ben Roethlisberger, but I get why Devin went with him - the stack with Antonio Brown. I don't want to discount that decision, but I'm a bit iffy on the matchup against a good Vikings defense, especially their front 7. Roethlisberger at home is a better play than on the road, but I'm a bit wary on him having a big game. If he doesn't, chances are Brown doesn't either. The determining factor for Devin this week is clearly Roethlisberger. It's a boom/bust decision that could pay big dividends or be the reason for a 3rd place finish.
devin's COMMENTARY ON HIS DRAFT:
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My draft strategy was to go running back running back in the first two rounds, and while it did not work out the way that I wanted, being able to get Antonio Brown was great value. It ended up working out well even though I deviated from my strategy as I was able to get Ty Montgomery in the third round who would have been the running back I would have taken in the second round had Brown not been there.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
I am really excited about Kareem Hunt. While it may have been a reach at 1.04 to take him over someone like Melvin Gordon, I knew that Hunt was not going to get back to me in the second round so I gladly took him. We all saw the rookie dominate in the season opener againt the Patriots with 147 yards rushing and 98 yards receiving with three touchdowns in what was thought to be a difficult matchup against the Patriots. While the matchup this week is just an average matchup, Hunt's versatility and usage in both the passing game and the rushing game makes me think he will continue to play a big role in this Chiefs offense. This is a team that does not have a lot of weapons and Andy Reid has shown that when he has a running back that he likes that he will continue to use them and they will be extremely productive.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Getting Ty Montgomery in the third round was an absolute steal. Montgomery was on the field for 74/82 plays in week one and showed that he is a versatile three down back that the team is trusting and relying on compared to last year where he did not receive nearly the volume and snaps that he saw in the opener. The Falcons had a tough time in the season opener defending the run as evidenced by both Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard racking up 186 total yards in the season opener against the Falcons.
Dan hindery - SLOT 5
Overview: Dan waited until the 4th round to select his quarterback - Matt Ryan, which worked out perfectly with the rest of his draft. I'm not a believer in Marshawn Lynch for the long haul, but Week 2, he should still have plenty of vigor and power in his game, especially against the Jets at home. The Julio Jones/Matt Ryan stack may wind up being the reason why Dan wins this week. I like Melvin Gordon at home vs. Miami and Tyreek Hill at home vs. Philadelphia. Both are solid options who should put up decent numbers to help anchor this team. The return factor in DRAFT scoring should not go un-noticed. Tyreek Hill could break a return any given week as long as Kansas City allows him to stay a returner.
dan's COMMENTARY ON HIS DRAFT:
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
In the first round, I was targeting a running back and hoping to land Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell or LeSean McCoy (in that order). Getting my top overall target at 1.05 was an ideal way to start the draft. I love the matchup for Gordon against a Miami defense that is traveling cross country and breaking in a new middle linebacker. I always like to double-check my projections against the professionals like Maurile Tremblay, David Dodds and Sigmund Bloom. Maurile was the only one with early projections posted to the site as of the time of this draft and he projects Gordon as the top RB by a full 2.5 points over Ezekiel Elliott. Maurile also has Gordon projected to have the highest spread over the lowest at his position (RB12) at 6.5 points.
At quarterback and wide receiver, I knew I wanted to get a piece of the action in either the Green Bay-Atlanta game or the New England-New Orleans game. Both of those games have totals well over 50 points, feature four of the league’s best quarterbacks and should see a lot of passing. In Head-To-Head and 3-Man formats, I don’t see much benefit in stacking. But in 6-Man or 10-Man, it provides a little bit of an advantage to target a correlation play. If your stack hits, you have a great chance of gaining a little extra separation. Thus, I had a few stacks in mind targeting these games. Julio Jones and Matt Ryan is my favorite stack of the week and I was very happy being able to lock these two up playing at home and on turf. Jones is my top wide receiver target this week (just narrowly ahead of Antonio Brown and Mike Evans) and I liked getting him at the top of the second round. If the top four running backs I listed above were all gone, I would have taken Jones at 1.05. Matt Ryan is a solid, high-floor option playing at home in a game where he is likely to have to throw a lot to keep up with the Packers. He also has major upside at home and a solid chance to be the week’s top-scoring quarterback. The other two stacks that I had in mind as backup plans if I missed on Julio Jones/Matt Ryan were Tom Brady/Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Rodgers/Jordy Nelson.
I’ll go into more detail on Lynch below, but he was also a big part of my plan. The only position I wasn’t particularly enthused about was WR2 with Tyreek Hill. While I think he is a solid choice at home against Philadelphia, he is a little too boom/bust for my tastes. I would have preferred Jordy Nelson, Doug Baldwin or Keenan Allen as my second wide receiver, but they flew off the board between by 4th and 5th round picks. Hill was the best of the remaining options at 5.05, but I was hoping one of the other receivers with similar upside and higher floors would drop to me.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
Without a doubt, I’m most excited about Marshawn Lynch making his home debut for the Oakland Raiders. I think you can often make mistakes in buying too much into narratives instead of just looking at the stats. But this is one of the rare cases where I think you have to take into account the intangibles. Lynch is an Oakland native who came out of retirement to play for his hometown team and is set to play in front of a rowdy home crowd. The coaching staff is very likely to feed him around the goal line and make sure he scores at least one touchdown.
Even aside from the narrative angle, Lynch profiles as an excellent play this weekend. The Raiders are a whopping 14-point home favorite against the lowly Jets. It is almost a certainty that Oakland is going to be playing from ahead in the second half and trying to burn the clock running the ball with their workhorse back. While the Jets have historically been a good run defense, they’ve had some turnover in their front seven with long-time stalwarts like Sheldon Richardson and David Harris moving on. The Jets gave up 190 rushing yards last week and it shouldn’t be a surprise if they give up a similar total after the long trip to the west coast.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I touched on this a little bit in my answer to the first question, but to go into a bit more depth, Melvin Gordon is the top overall player on my board this week and I think he’s a steal at 1.05. Even in a slow-paced game (just 56 offensive snaps for San Diego) and playing from behind in Week 1, Gordon touched the ball 23 times against the Denver Broncos (18 rushes and 5 catches). His weekly floor for touches is as high as any running back in the league. He also has a plus matchup against the Dolphins. The Chargers are solid 4.5-point home favorites and facing a Miami defense that is likely to be starting Rey Maualuga at middle linebacker. Maualuga was signed off the street just a few weeks ago after starter Raekwon McMillan went down with an injury. Aside from the favorable matchups against the Miami defense, the Miami offense helps Gordon’s projection as well. The Dolphins ran a lot of hurry up offense in the preseason and look like a team that wants to play fast. We should see plenty of snaps for the Chargers offense. Plus, Jay Cutler has a well-earned reputation as a turnover-prone passer who is willing to take risks. There’s a decent chance we see at least one Miami turnover that sets up the San Diego offense in great field position.
In terms of comparing Gordon to the other top options, the thing that separates him this week is the matchup. While Gordon’s is favorable, Ezekiel Elliott has to travel to Denver to face one of the league’s best defenses in what should be a slow-paced game. LeSean McCoy is also on the road and facing a loaded Carolina front seven that has historically been very stingy against the run. The Steelers are at home but facing Mike Zimmer’s talented Vikings defense.
justin howe - SLOT 6
Overview: This feels like a team with the 6th pick. I don't dislike this team, but it feels as if some picks were forced. If I were Justin I would've selected Antonio Brown or Julio Jones at pick 1.06 over Brandin Cooks. I understand why he decided on Cooks - it's a high point projected game and Cooks has the revenge factor against the Saints for trading him out of New Orleans. Brown or Jones has more appeal to me, as both are more consistent scorers and producers week in and week out. Drew Brees as the second quarterback off the board also seems off to me. Brees and the Saints offense struggled Week 1 and couldn't find a rhythm on offense. New England struggled on defense themselves in Week 1, so it could be a good matchup, but I would've been happier with Aaron Rodgers here. The decision to take Rob Gronkowski over Jordy Nelson and Larry Fitzgerald may come back to haunt Justin - then again it might be the reason why he wins this week. I would've liked to have seen more from Gronkowski in Week 1 to pull the trigger there, but I won't fault Justin for taking a chance. There's definitely potential with this lineup, but I can also see potential going the opposite direction.
justin's COMMENTARY ON HIS DRAFT:
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I took a best-player-available approach to wrapping up my roster in the Patriots/Saints game. The guys combined to snipe my literal top-5 plays, so I figure that my best play is stacking the upside in those passing-game fireworks. Tom Brady was taken, so with two picks on the turn, I leapt at Brandin Cooks and Drew Brees. Cooks has the obvious narrative going for him, but is also in his best position of the year to scorch the earth. Last week's line was suboptimal but explosive (3 catches, 88 yards), and he also drew 3 penalties - 2 inside the 2-yard line. That's an indicator that Cooks is on the verge of producing both huge splash plays and touchdowns, and who better to fire him up against? I then added Rob Gronkowski down the line, and I feel that, more or less, I'm holding over 50% of the passing/receiving ceiling in that potentially wild game.
2. Which player on your roster are you most excited about?
I'm usually not one for home/road splits, but there's definitely something special in the Superdome for Brees. Over the past 6 seasons, he’s averaged home boosts of 64% in touchdown rate, 13% in yards per attempt, and 31% in standard fantasy scoring. The Patriots can't stop anyone down the field right now, so Brees has a strong outlook for intermediate and deep passing. If Vegas' scoring projection holds, there's almost no path to those Saints points without hefty production from him. I'm not very interested in parsing the value of his receivers, whose production tends to scatter and be less predictable. I'm fine holding a strong stack on the other side and reaping "just" Brees' numbers.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
It's hard to poke holes in what these guys did here, but Gronkowski shouldn't have lasted to the 18th pick. He's perceived as increasingly volatile, but is he? He's topped 55 yards in 5 of his last 6 games - and topped 92 in 4 of them. He's still Tom Brady's top read on many snaps and a world-class playmaker on the ball. And it's not as though he needs the matchup boost, but few defenses allow points to tight ends than these Saints. It's early in the week, but I'm loving the Gronkowski/Cooks stack.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
