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2017 Running Back Goal Line Conversion Rate Regression

Examining goal line conversion rates to highlight regression candidates for 2017 running backs

One of the biggest influences to fantasy football performances is a touchdown. There is an entire channel built upon showing red zone possessions and goal line opportunities. For running backs, few top performers can survive for long without strong goal line volume and a hearty conversion rate. Here is a look at the historical data and the top regression candidates for 2017:

Sample Size: 363 running backs from 2006-2015

Criteria: 3+ carries inside the five-yard-line in both the test season and the following season

THE DATA

Overall, these 363 criteria-fitting running backs averaged a 38% conversion rate, ranging from peak aggregate seasons of 42% down to 34%.

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