#Trendspotting: Week 5 - Smoothing the Tension

Examining player and team trends to identify valuable DFS options

Graphics Tutorial

I've gotten feedback that my graphics aren't as self-explanatory and intuitive as I think they are, so let's start this week with a brief tutorial.

Tutorial Pic

The graphics are designed to show an offense vs. a defense. For instance, above is the Dallas offense vs. the Green Bay defense. The idea is to look at each team's offensive strength (how good the offense is) and if they favor the pass or the rush. The same look is given for the defense. All ranks in the "Yards/Gm" and "FanPts" sections are on a per game basis.

Color-Scaling

  • Offense: green is a strength; red is a weakness.
  • Defense: red is a strength (i.e. a defense we want to avoid); green is a weakness (i.e. one we want to exploit).

Red Circles: Yards per Game

Examples:

  • The Dallas offense gaines the 12th-most total yards per game. Green Bay allows the 6th-fewest.

Blue Circles: Yards per Play

Examples:

  • Dallas ranks 4th in rush yards per attempt. In an uptempo game, they could be expected to exceed their yards per game number, which the previous section told us is 14th.

Green Circles: Yardage Distribution

Examples:

  • Green Bay allows 62.9% of its total yardage via the pass. That cell is color-scaled orange to indicate a better-than-average ratio.

Yellow Circles: Points Distribution

Examples:

  • Dallas has scored 51.1% of its total points via passing touchdowns. That cell is color-scaled green to indicate a higher-than-average ratio.

Bottom Sections: Fantasy Points Scored vs. Allowed

  • Ideally, you want to see green (offensive strength) vs. green (defensive weakness) when considering a player.

Reader's Guide

  • Green text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players.
  • Red text is a bad matchup.
  • When a player's name is green, it means that he exceeded 2.75x value on his DraftKings salary that week.
  • If a name is red, it means that player was under 2x his value.
  • All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
  • All stats reference the full 2017 season unless otherwise specified.
  • All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

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