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Strategy Roundtable: Early-round Bust Pick

Footballguys staff members offer their thoughts on early picks who could bust

No one wants to blow an early round selection. Name a Top 20 player who you are avoiding. Why?

Chad Parsons: My pick is DeAndre Hopkins. Houston was No.9 in pass attempts last year, an attempt figure I can see dropping by 40-50 passes. Secondly, Houston has Jaelen Strong entering his second season with strong reports. Will Fuller was drafted in the first round. Finally, Lamar Miller offers a substantial upgrade in the backfield over all non-Arian Foster options who logged most of the carries. There are more viable weapons in Houston than at any point in Hopkins' career to-date.

At 7.9%, Hopkins has not been a noteworthy touchdown scorer in his career. At near 10%, 2015 marks Hopkins' best season in the touchdown department. I am very wary of players coming off a career-high touchdown season. Hopkins was also dead last in the NFL for wide receivers in yards-after-the-catch per reception. Drafting a wide receiver highly in fantasy means securing a high ceiling and floor. I do not see a top-5 ceiling for Hopkins this season - his sticker price - and project his floor outside the top-15.

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