Quarterbacks:
Josh McCown ($5,300)
Jets @ Browns
Projected Team Total: 20.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 13.7 points (2.6x salary multiple)
Josh McCown is going to be very low owned this week as people have a tendency to avoid the 0-7 Browns. Yardage has not been the problem for the Browns it has largely been the ability to score within the red zone. A lot of this has to do with the disruption that the team has had at the quarterback position. In comes Josh McCown this week who is coming back from a collarbone injury suffered in week 2 where he threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens. The Browns are not going to be able to run the ball on the stout run defense for the Jets this week as they have really struggled against the pass allowing 284 passing yards per game while only allowing 74 yards rushing per game. McCown is not the most talented quarterback but will see enough volume to pay off his low salary in this one and has the upside that we saw last season where he threw for 300 yards or more in three of his seven games. He is likely going to have to throw the ball 50+ times in this game in order for the Browns to be competitive in this one.
Drew Brees ($6,900)
Seahawks @ Saints
Projected Team Total: 21 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.8 points (3.0x salary multiple)
With Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck eating up most of the ownership in GPP’s this week, Brees is going to be completely overlooked as most people are going to look at Seattle’s defense and think that they’re a defensive juggernaut and avoid them. In reality they are 9th in passing yards allowed which typically isn’t a defense that you want to target, however if you look deeper at the numbers you’ll see that that data is skewed. The Seahawks have only faced one offense that was in the top half of the NFL in terms of total passing yards this season and that was Atlanta at home. How did they do against Atlanta at home? They allowed Matt Ryan to throw for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns. Now they face the number one passing offense in the NFL led by Drew Brees in the Superdome where he is excellent in. This is a premiere GPP option as you get a guy who is in a good matchup, at home, indoors and will be severely under-owned based on all the other options.
Cam Newton ($7,400)
Cardinals @ Panthers
Projected Team Total: 25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 21.5 points (2.9x salary multiple)
Have people forgotten about Cam Newton? It seems there has been absolutely no talk about him this week as they’re coming off a bye week. This tends to happen quite a bit where people forget about a player since they were on the bye week the prior week and they go under-owned the week after the bye. Cam Newton clearly wasn’t right after the concussion that he suffered in Week 4. It has now been almost a month since Cam suffered his concussion, and all signs are pointing towards him running the football again which is something that we did not see in his last start against New Orleans. In that start he did throw for 332 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he only ran the ball twice for one yard. Cam has as much upside as any player in the NFL, and we have seen the Cardinals struggle when they go to the Eastern time zones to mobile quarterbacks as they allowed 76 yards rushing and a touchdown to Tyrod Taylor earlier this season.
Running Backs:
Matt Forte ($6,400)
New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns
Projected Team Total: 17.9 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 21.5 points (2.8x salary multiple)
The Jets have won two games this season. In those two games, Matt Forte has 200 yards rushing, 6 receptions for 63 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Jets once again are favorites in this week against the Browns team that are allowing 140 yards rushing per game. Matt Forte never has a high ownership as people look at his age, his team’s offense, and he just not is the flashy back that you want to spend up on, however that is a misconception and he makes for a great play this week. Cleveland defensive front seven is one of the worst in the NFL and the Jets should be able to run all over the Browns in this one.
Jacquizz Rodgers ($4,300)
Raiders @ Bucs
Projected Team Total: 24.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 14.9 points (2.6 x salary multiple)
This game is expected to be a shootout with both quarterbacks having a big day. Oakland is the worst team against the pass in the NFL, and most of the ownership will go away from Jacquizz in this game as the expectation is that the Bucs will throw the ball the entire game. Oakland also struggles against the run as they have allowed 130 yards rushing per game which is 5th worst in the NFL this season. Expect the Bucs to run the same balanced approach that they have ran the past two weeks where Jacquizz gets his carries. He has been a volume workhorse averaging 31 touches per week over the last two weeks going over 100 yards in each of those games. With this game being one of the higher scoring games of the day, you’re going to want to have some action in your GPP lineups, and with most of the ownership going the way of Mike Evans and Jameis Winston, why not get a player who every time he does well it hurts your opponent which is a core GPP strategy.
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,200)
Eagles @ Cowboys
Projected Team Total: 24 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.9 points (2.9x salary multiple)
Ezekiel Elliott and the offensive line get a much needed rest after running for four straight games over 100 yards. This is another situation where a player is coming off a bye week and his ownership may be lower than it otherwise would be had he played last week. Elliott is one of the most consistent and high-volume running backs in the NFL, and with his salary at $7.2k, a lot of the ownership is going to go up to the volume workhorse David Johnson, or down to players such as Spencer Ware, Christine Michael, or Devontae Freeman. Elliott proved that he is matchup proof as he went for 157 yards against the number one ranked Green Bay Packers run defense. The Eagles defense is allowing 4.5 yards rushing per carry and is coming off a week two weeks ago where they allowed 135 yards to Matt Jones. Dallas is going to look to run the ball as much as possible in a game where they may not need to score a significant amount as Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense is really struggling of late. This will be a 25-30 carry game for Elliott and to get a running back who is going to carry the ball at that high of volume at a reduced ownership is a great GPP play.
Wide Receiver
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,500)
Cardinals @ Panthers
Projected Team Total: 22 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 20 points (2.7x salary multiple)
Looking at the Carolina Panthers, they are clearly missing Josh Norman who departed to Washington in the offseason. Here are the stat lines over the last three weeks that they have allowed to number one receivers, Brandin Cooks 7 rec, 173 yards and a touchdown, Mike Evans 6 rec, 89 yards and a touchdown, Julio Jones 12 rec, 300 yards and a touchdown. Mike Evans is going to receive a lot of the ownership in GPP’s this week, but Fitzgerald has to be considered as one of the top plays this week. Fitzgerald has seen at least 7 targets in each game this season, and while he has not gone over 100 yards, he does have two games where he score two touchdowns. This is one of the best matchups that he has had all season and should have the ability to go over 100 yards and at least a touchdown as Julio and Cooks did in the last two weeks.
Michael Crabtree ($6,700)
Raiders @ Bucs
Projected Team Total: 25.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 16.3 points (2.4x salary multiple)
Amari Cooper continues to be higher priced on DraftKings than Michael Crabtree and often is higher owned each week. From a GPP perspective so much of whether you win or lose in a GPP is based on touchdowns. Amari Cooper this season just has not been able to find the end zone as he only has one touchdown this season. Crabtree on the other hand has six touchdowns including a three touchdown game against Baltimore earlier this season. This game is projected to be one of the highest scoring games of the week. This is the best passing attack that the Bucs have faced since week one when they faced the Falcons who threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns. Interesting enough, the #2 wide receiver Mohammad Sanu out-scored Julio Jones. This is a real possibility to happen again and if Crabtree out scores Cooper, it will make for a very strong GPP play.
Deandre Hopkins ($7,400)
Lions @ Texans
Projected Team Total: 24 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 15.9 points (2.1x salary multiple)
It is now or never for Deandre Hopkins as he is in a great matchup going up against the Lions who are likely going to be without their top corner Darius Slay. This is a big loss for the Lions as Slay is one of the top corners in the NFL. Even with Slay, the Lions are averaging allowing 273 yards per game passing which is 8th worst in the NFL. Without Slay they are likely a bottom 3 offense and Hopkins is a player who is looking to take advantage and return to his great season like he had last year. Hopkins is not going to be highly owned as he has burned a number of DFS players so far this year, but without Slay, there will be no one who will be able to cover Hopkins and he should have the upside of 100 yards and a touchdown if not more.
Tight Ends
Gary Barnidge ($3,300)
Jets @ Browns
Projected Team Total: 20.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 12.9 points (3.8x salary multiple)
With all of these high priced players we have written up, we are likely going to have to save money somewhere this week for our lineups. That spot is with Gary Barnidge. With Josh McCown as the starting quarterback last season Gary Barnidge was the second best tight end just behind Rob Gronkowski. He was ahead of Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Delanie Walker, and Tyler Eifert. Now all of a sudden Barnidge’s production has decreased significantly when McCown was out with an injury and he makes for a tremendous value play. He will be popular, so this is not a contrarian play, but to win GPP’s you don’t necessarily need to go contrarian at every position. The Browns use Barnidge in a variety of sets similar to how the Chiefs use Travis Kelce who had a season best 7 reception 89 yards and a touchdown game against the Jets. This is a tremendous spot for Barnidge who should easily reach 3x value.
