With ownership information extinct without Thursday contests in the playoffs, this weekly column takes a turn. Instead, I will focus on cash game strategies for this weekend's slate of games. My exposure rates are built upon how the value tiers lay out from Footballguys projections within each position plus Austin Lee's terrific strength of schedule data.
QUARTERBACK
Player | Salary | Value | TGT |
Cam Newton | 8700 | 24 | 30 |
Alex Smith | 7200 | 22 | 15 |
Tom Brady | 8600 | 22 | 15 |
Russell Wilson | 8400 | 22 | 15 |
Peyton Manning | 7000 | 22 | 15 |
Carson Palmer | 8900 | 21 | 10 |
Peyton Manning has the best matchup of the week by a decent chunk, however, is one of the more tenuous plays in a vacuum. Aaron Rodgers notably did not make the cut after a rare quality game in the wild card round with a stingy matchup.
RUNNING BACK
Player | Salary | Value | TGT |
David Johnson | 8500 | 21 | 60 |
Jonathan Stewart | 6300 | 17 | 40 |
C.J. Anderson | 5900 | 16 | 30 |
Ronnie Hillman | 5900 | 16 | 30 |
Charcandrick West | 6300 | 14 | 20 |
James Starks | 5800 | 14 | 20 |
Johnson fits the criteria to surpass the general 50% threshold as the best clear lead back and the best matchup against Green Bay. The Cardinals are also strong favorites. The options are slim this week and both Denver backs make the top-5 value plays at 30% exposure.
WIDE RECEIVER
Player | Salary | Value | TGT |
Michael Floyd | 6500 | 21 | 50 |
James Jones | 6500 | 19 | 40 |
Markus Wheaton | 6000 | 19 | 40 |
Martavis Bryant | 7100 | 17 | 30 |
Albert Wilson | 5400 | 17 | 30 |
Demaryius Thomas | 8100 | 17 | 30 |
Emmanuel Sanders | 7700 | 16 | 25 |
John Brown | 6700 | 16 | 25 |
Doug Baldwin | 7400 | 16 | 25 |
Antonio Brown is looking doubtful this weekend with a concussion. Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant are significant benefactors even with a less-than-100% Ben Roethlisberger and underdogs to Denver. James Jones continues to be a low-salary option with big-play upside and Davante Adams is unlikely to play this week.
TIGHT END
Player | Salary | Value | TGT |
Greg Olsen | 6500 | 18 | 30 |
Rob Gronkowski | 8300 | 17 | 25 |
Travis Kelce | 6600 | 17 | 25 |
Owen Daniels | 4800 | 14 | 10 |
Richard Rodgers | 5100 | 13 | 10 |
The top of the tight end board is tightly contested and the target exposure mirrors the sentiment. Daniels and Rodgers are reserved for rounding out tournament lineups.
KICKER
Player | Salary | Value | TGT |
Chandler Catanzaro | 4800 | 22 | 35 |
Brandon McManus | 4700 | 18 | 20 |
Graham Gano | 4900 | 17 | 15 |
Mason Crosby | 4500 | 17 | 15 |
Stephen Gostkowski | 5200 | 17 | 15 |
Rarely is a kicker in a tier by themselves, but the Cardinals have the highest team total by far this week - a difference of five points from New England. Gostkowski's higher salary pushes him down the overall value board.
DEFENSE
Player | Salary | Value | TGT |
Denver Broncos | 5300 | 23 | 35 |
New England Patriots | 4700 | 21 | 25 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 4700 | 20 | 20 |
Arizona Cardinals | 4800 | 19 | 15 |
Carolina Panthers | 5000 | 18 | 5 |
The Denver-Pittsburgh game has by far the lowest over/under of the week with the Steelers at a paltry 16-point team total. The Patriots and Cardinals are also strong Vegas plays.
EXAMPLE LINEUP
Player | Salary | Value |
Cam Newton | 8700 | 23.9 |
David Johnson | 8500 | 20.8 |
C.J. Anderson | 5900 | 15.9 |
Michael Floyd | 6500 | 20.9 |
James Jones | 6500 | 19.4 |
Albert Wilson | 5400 | 16.7 |
Rob Gronkowski | 8300 | 16.9 |
Chandler Catanzaro | 4800 | 21.5 |
Denver Broncos | 5300 | 22.5 |
59900 | 19.8 |
This lineup has a strong balance of teams, perfect for a cash game lineup. Wilson and Jones benefit from injured receivers on their depth charts. Rob Gronkowski and David Johnson are high-upside options to anchor the team at positions with few secure plays.