Photo: Steven Bisig, USA Today Sports

Join the Footballguys Daily Update

Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.

Subscribe Now

Knowing the expected ownership rates heading into a weekend of FanDuel contests is a powerful tool. Knowledge is power. There will be heavily used players and underrated options from which to pick and choose quality lineups. Cash games are the perfect place for using a bevy of highly owned options and playing it safe. The cash line is simply finishing above the average score (typically in 110-120 point range). In a tournament field (GPP), finishing in the money takes more risk and variance to achieve a high mark worthy of cashing. There is no prize difference between finishing middle of the pack or dead last in GPP contests. Here are the strategies centered around player ownership for FanDuel this week:

*Collected ownership data from Thursday Night locking contests*

CONSENSUS PLAYS OF WEEK

For the second straight week Russell Wilson leads the pack at quarterback with 23.7% ownership, 2.5x of the second-leading option (Blake Bortles). Wilson is historically hot with four straight games of at least 3.3x value and 17 total touchdowns over the span. All four FanDuel outputs are better than any previous game this season and now his salary hits a season-high $8,800. The Footballguys projections like, but do not love, Wilson at the price, making him a play this week but not one to surpass his ownership level in terms of exposure.

David Johnson and Adrian Peterson lead the running backs at 22% and 19% ownership respectively. Johnson's salary of $6,500 is one of the more surprising lack of adjustments on FanDuel with two straight games of 120 or more total yards as Arizona's lead back. The Eagles have been stingy for running backs to hit paydirt on the ground, but have allowed an NFL-high five receiving touchdowns to backs this season - David Johnson's strength. Adrian Peterson at $8,600 is one of his lower salaries of the season after 0.5x and 1.6x games the past two weeks. After matchups with Seattle and Arizona, this week against Chicago projects as a get well game for Peterson with 87 yards and only two carries in the red zone the past two games combined.

Doug Baldwin is red hot and Seattle gets another strong matchup at home against Cleveland. Baldwin boatraced the receiver position with 37% ownership on Thursday. His $7,400 salary is by far the highest of the season and he has hit at least 3.9x value in 4-of-5 weeks of late. Eight touchdowns over three weeks is ripe to regression, especially as Baldwin is not a red zone super-sized option getting regular jump balls. His volume has been relatively low considering his production as well. While the chalk play, I would be fading Baldwin based on all factors this week and his tepid Footballguys value projection compared to his ownership. 

Jordan Reed headlines the tight ends at nearly 18% ownership, 50% more than the second tier of Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, and Ben Watson. Reed has been the go-to option for Kirk Cousins when healthy and at home the Redskins have performed far better than on the road. Reed's value return has been rocky this season - four games below 2x, including a dud two weeks ago - but his ceiling of 4x or more is better than nearly all tight ends not named Gronkowski.

For the second straight week, Seattle and Kansas City lead the way for defenses - the Seahawks at a gaudy 25%. They are back at home against Cleveland as heavy favorites. Even at $5,400 and $5,200 respectively, owners are going heavy towards these two chalk plays against weak quarterbacks. Both have hit 2.3x or better tha past two weeks. At kicker Stephen Gostkowski and Chris Boswell are the only options above 8% in early contests. The Patriots lead all Vegas team totals by two full points, while Pittsburgh is outside the top-5, behind Chandler Catanzaro, Kai Forbath, and Jason Myers of cheaper salary.

AGAINST THE GRAIN

If you know me, you know I am not one to shy away from cheap quarterbacks in any DFS format. The salary savings can be immense if the matchup is right to project a decent floor. T.J. Yates is the name for Week 15 at $6,000 at 1.1% ownership. Against the Colts, I like going with also-cheap Nate Washington as part of a tournament lineup stacked with studs across the board around them. Yates has the top value projection by Footballguys and the Colts have allowed an outlier quality game to Peyton Manning, plus multiple passing touchdowns in 5-of-6 games of late. Against the Jets last month, Yates had a respectable 229 yards and two touchdowns. 

Latavius Murray stands out of the low ownership running backs at 2.3% and a top Footballguys value proposition. There is no shortage of low-priced running backs in play this week, but Murray adds to the bunch at $5,900. Murray's salary has dropped four straight weeks and hits his lowest of the season. Green Bay is a neutral running back matchup. In Denver last week was an expected rough game (16-27-0, no receptions), but the volume has been there for Murray with at least 12 touches every game this season. Back at home, Murray has had 97, 77, and 119 total yards his last three outings despite Kansas City and the Jets on the docket.

Travis Benjamin is an outstanding combination of anemic ownership (0.9%) and Footballguys value numbers. At $5,600, he offers tremendous flexibility as a low-cost WR3. Benjamin is coming off two lackluster games, but along with Gary Barnidge, is a primary threat in Cleveland's pass game. Deep threats Markus Wheaton, Michael Floyd, and James Jones are the only receivers to hit paydirt against Seattle this season. Also, mobile quarterbacks have caused more problems for the Seahawks than traditional pocket passers. Demaryius Thomas at 2.7% owned is a quality blend of matchup (Steelers), high floor and $7,700 marks Thomas' second-lowest salary of the season.

Two tight ends standout of the low-owned group this week: Gary Barnidge and Zach Miller. The lone deficiency of the Seattle defense is against tight ends, a strength of Cleveland's offense. While on the pricey side at $6,400 Barnidge had 3.5% ownership. Seattle has not faced a decent tight end since Heath Miller back in Week 12, making their recent numbers appear better. Barnidge has hit at least 59 yards the past four games with consistent red zone involvement. Miller is a quality punt play if surrounding him with studs. At $5,500 he saves around $1,000 off the better options with an equal ceiling. Miller had an illness earlier in the week, but looks on track for the weekend after returning to practice Thursday.

The Footballguys projections at kicker are littered with low-owned options at the top. Steve Haushka, Kai Forbath, Jason Myers, and Chandler Catanzaro are all at 4% or lower ownership with Forbath an especially appealing combination of high team total, kicking in a dome, and $4,500 salary. The Steelers are the standout defense with 4.8% ownership and a top-5 Footballguys value projection for the weekend. The Broncos are a quality matchup, on the road in Pittsburgh, and have allowed 19 sacks over the past five games. The turnovers have not been plentiful, but pressure leads to mistakes over time.

EXAMPLE GPP ROSTER 1

As mentioned above, going with the Yates-Washington stack allows for a host of studs around them. Another option is Alex Smith-Jeremy Maclin as the stack with the remaining roster static.

EXAMPLE GPP ROSTER 2

Monitor Greg Olsen's status to pivot to Gary Barnidge or Jordan Reed if needed. The Stafford-Calvin stack is one of the better values on Footballguys and Latavius Murray allows for T.J. Yates-like flexibility for the rest of the lineup.

CASH GAMES: GO WITH THE HERD

Two compromises had to be made to fit under the cap this week - downshifting at kicker a couple of ownership points to Chris Boswell and Lamar Miller, another highly owned running back, over Adrian Peterson to cut salary. I mentioned my pause to roll out a Wilson-Baldwin stack with much regularity this week, but a few cash games is warranted as part of a lineup portfolio in case to tandem stays hot against Cleveland. 

Follow @ChadParsonsNFL