Knowing the expected ownership rates heading into a weekend of FanDuel contests is a powerful tool. Knowledge is power. There will be heavily used players and underrated options from which to pick and choose quality lineups. Cash games are the perfect place for using a bevy of highly owned options and playing it safe. The cash line is simply finishing above the average score (typically in 110-120 point range). In a tournament field (GPP), finishing in the money takes more risk and variance to achieve a high mark worthy of cashing. There is no prize difference between finishing middle of the pack or dead last in GPP contests. Here are the strategies centered around player ownership for FanDuel this week:
*Collected ownership data from Thursday Night locking contests*
CONSENSUS PLAYS OF WEEK
Derek Carr sits atop the Week 11 ownership at quarterback and for good reason. Oakland's passing game has been consistently solid and the matchup with Detroit is one of the best for quarterbacks of the week. Carr is third in the NFL with 21 touchdown passes (multiple scores in each of the last four games) while Detroit has allowed marginal fantasy options like Alex Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, and (yes) Peyton Manning to log multiple touchdowns through the air this season. At 16% Carr dwarfs Cam Newton and Tom Brady, the only other quarterbacks eclipsing 6% in Thursday tracked contests.
Charcandrick West is coming off a strong performance, faces the Chargers, plus a gaudy 34% ownership at a reasonable $7,100. As I mention below for Alex Smith, the Chargers defense has been consistently poor, allowing 22 points or more in every game this season. The Chiefs keep the game script close to the vest, blending well with West to have a solid floor and ceiling. San Diego is allowing 5.1 yards per rush to running backs and nearly six receptions per game. The list of running backs to hit 20 points or more against the Chargers is deep: Adrian Peterson, Duke Johnson Jr, LeVeon Bell, James Starks, and Jeremy Langford with three more hitting 15+ points. Honorable mentions this week are Devonta Freeman (25%) and Lamar Miller (18%). Freeman has the better matchup of the two against Indianapolis, plus Freeman is looking to snap a three-game dry spell for rushing touchdowns, spanning 58 carries.
The quartet of highly owned receivers for Week 11 are Danny Amendola, Julio Jones, Michael Crabtree, and Amari Cooper - all between 19% and 27%. As mentioned with Derek Carr, the Detroit defense is a strong matchup for opoosing defenses despite Green Bay's struggles last week. Amendola sees a significant bump in his floor and ceiling projections with Julian Edelman out and costing $6,100. Julio Jones faces Indianapolis, a team who has allowed five receivers to hit 21+ points this season, including Kendall Wright. Percy Harvin, Danny Amendola, and Philly Brown all had highlight games of their season against the Colts. For Amendola, the Bills allowed 32 points to Julian Edelman in Buffalo Week 2, plus 18 points to Jarvis Landry in Week 9 as similar players.
Greg Olsen and Rob Gronkowski are the chalk plays at tight end, both above 14% ownership. Both have strong Footballguys projections and high target floors within the scope of their passing games. Buffalo has been stingy of late against tight ends (Gronkowski's matchup), but they have not faced quality options outside of Tyler Eifert (4-30-1) since Gronkowski himself poured on 7-113-1 back in Week 2. Olsen gets Washington, who held Gronkowski to 4-47-0 in a comfortable New England win a couple weeks ago. It is worth noting Washington has allowed only one touchdown to tight ends all season.
The Seahawks and Stephen Gostkowski are the chalk plays of the week by a near 2-to-1 margin at their respective positions. Both are costly at more than $5,000 each. The Patriots have the highest Vegas team total of the week yet again. The Seahawks get Blaine Gabbert, in Seattle, in what could be one of the ugliest offensive outings of the entire season.
AGAINST THE GRAIN
Alex Smith is the perfect combination of a quality matchup, low salary, and low ownership. Smith has not thrown an interception since Week 3, has gained at least 15 rushing yards in 7-of-9 games this season, and is a solid bet for a passing touchdown despite his close-to-the-vest playing style. The Chargers had only five interceptions on the season, have a multiple sacks in just 4-of-9 games and have allowed 22 or more points to opposing offenses in every game this season. Smith is a safe bet with 2% ownership.
Frank Gore is the low-ownership running back this week standing out at 3%. Gore has a choice matchup against Atlanta and $6,600 salary. The Falcons have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns to backs this season, second-most in the NFL. Their roster of opposing backs has not been all that strong either and remember Joseph Randle nearly hitting 30 points against them in Week 3. Plus Chris Polk and Shaun Draughn hit double-digits. Gore has hit at least 70 rushing yards in 4-of-5 games of late and the receiving production has been much stronger than the opening month of the year.
Jordan Matthews, Steve Johnson, and Calvin Johnson populate the strong plays at wide receiver with low ownership. Matthews has the lowest early ownership at 4%. Jordan Matthews has a strong matchup with Miami, who has struggled of late, allowing 27 or more points to Nate Washington, Sammy Watkins, and Julian Edelman in the last month. Steve Johnson faces Kansas City, who has allowed at least 13.5 points to every leading receiver this season. In Week 9 without Keenan Allen, Johnson saw 10 targets (7-68-0). Now Malcom Floyd has a torn labrum in his shoulder and Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green are dinged up as well. Touchdowns have been the weak point of Calvin Johnson this seaosn (plus a current career-low 13.5 yards-per-catch), however his floor has been high with at least 56 yards in every game since Week 1 and at least 81 yards in the last four.
Eric Ebron is my favorite low-owned tight end for Week 11. At 4% and $5,400, Ebron gets Oakland in a potential shootout and the Raiders have allowed an NFL-leading 10 touchdowns to tight ends, over 20% touchdown rate. The only game where a tight end did not find the end zone against Oakland was Owen Daniels back in Week 5. Rhett Ellison and Jesse James are among the off-the-fantasy-radar names to find paydirt against the Raiders.
Matt Bryant is my kicker of choice with less than 5% ownership (2.4% in Thursday contests). The Falcons at home with a high team total and are known to struggle in the red zone. The Bears are not an elite defensive unit, but draw Denver's in-flux offense (to be kind), in Chicago, Denver leads the NFL by a signficant margin with 18 interceptions allowed (we will see if Brock Osweiler slows down that rate) and the Broncos are among the worst rushing teams in the league.
EXAMPLE GPP ROSTER 1
Position | Player | Salary | Own% |
QB | Matthew Stafford | 7000 | 4.7 |
RB | Devonta Freeman | 9100 | 25.0 |
RB | Frank Gore | 6600 | 3.0 |
WR | Calvin Johnson | 8100 | 8.0 |
WR | Larry Fitzgerald | 7400 | 12.1 |
WR | Steve Johnson | 5600 | 8.9 |
TE | Eric Ebron | 5400 | 3.9 |
K | Stephen Gostkowski | 5100 | 15.8 |
DST | Seattle Seahawks | 5400 | 20.0 |
59700 | 11.3 |
This lineup features the Lions stack of Stafford-Calvin-Ebron. Steve Johnson and Frank Gore are preferred low-ownership plays.
EXAMPLE GPP ROSTER 2
Position | Player | Salary | Own% |
QB | Derek Carr | 7700 | 16.1 |
RB | Charcandrick West | 7100 | 34.1 |
RB | Frank Gore | 6600 | 3.0 |
WR | Amari Cooper | 7200 | 22.9 |
WR | Michael Crabtree | 6500 | 19.8 |
WR | Julio Jones | 9100 | 25.8 |
TE | Greg Olsen | 6400 | 20.3 |
K | Matt Bryant | 5000 | 2.4 |
DST | Chicago Bears | 4200 | 4.3 |
59800 | 16.5 |
On the opposite side of the Detroit-Oakland game, this lineup features Carr-Cooper-Crabtree, all reasonably priced. Again Frank Gore and this time kicker and defense are the notable low-ownership pieces with quality matchups.
CASH GAMES: GO WITH THE HERD
Position | Player | Salary | Own% |
QB | Cam Newton | 8600 | 11.7 |
RB | Charcandrick West | 7100 | 34.1 |
RB | Lamar Miller | 7400 | 18.3 |
WR | Danny Amendola | 6100 | 27.1 |
WR | Michael Crabtree | 6500 | 19.8 |
WR | Amari Cooper | 7200 | 22.9 |
TE | Greg Olsen | 6400 | 20.3 |
K | Stephen Gostkowski | 5100 | 15.8 |
DST | Seattle Seahawks | 5400 | 20.0 |
59800 | 21.1 |
This lineup is can also shift from Cam Newton to Derek Carr for an Oakland triple-stack or higher-ceiling contests, allowing extra salary for Calvin Johnson over Amari Cooper or a running back like DeMarco Murray (9%) over Lamar Miller if desired.