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Overvalued Players: Week 9

A look at players who could have unexpected disappointing fantasy weeks

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers

  • Top 200 ranking: 2
  • Weekly ranking: 6
  • Difference: -4

Rodgers has the unenviable task of consecutive road games against two of the stronger defenses. After the blistering on Sunday Night Football, the Packers travel to Carolina to meet the Panthers in a huge game for both teams. Green Bay does not want consecutive losses and Carolina is looking to stay unbeaten.

Derek Carr

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -6

Carr is coming off back-to-back big games and leads the Raiders across the country to face the Steelers. The loser of this game will have an uphill battle for the playoffs. The Pittsburgh pass defense has improved, as evidenced by the strong showing against Cincinnati a week ago. Considering the strong quarterbacks on bye this week, the ranking signifies to fantasy owners to look for other options.

Blake Bortles

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 20
  • Difference: -12

Bortles has a tough matchup against the Jets in New York. This will be a tough test for the Jacksonville pass offense versus one of the top defenses in the league. We do not like the chances of the young offensive players excelling against Todd Bowles' aggressive defense.

Running Back

Duke Johnson

  • Top 200 ranking: 22
  • Weekly ranking: 26
  • Difference: -4

Johnson has been misused by the Browns coaching staff this year. He has flashed talent but shares touches with Isaiah Crowell and Robert Turbin. The game against the Bengals on Thursday night will be a tough matchup for the Browns running game. The addition of Johnny Manziel to the lineup means fewer dumpoffs to the running backs and more shots down the field. This is a tough week to have confidence with Johnson inserted in fantasy lineups.

Latavius Murray

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 16
  • Difference: -5

Murray has been riding high with the recent success of the Raiders offense. But, we do not like the chances of any of the Oakland skill players of having a huge game in Pittsburgh this week. West coast teams struggle when traveling across the country. Murray is still a fantasy RB2 this week, just not the upside as most games.

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson

  • Top 200 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 21
  • Difference: -9

Robinson will see a lot of Darrelle Revis this week as the Jaguars travel North to meet the Jets. The Jets desperately need a win and will rely on a stout defense to make it happen. We do not like any of the Jacksonville passing game this week.

Dez Bryant

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 20
  • Difference: -7

We love Bryant and his outlook for the fantasy playoffs. But, as long as Matt Cassel is under center, we are not high on the superstar receiver. The game against the Eagles will be a tough divisional matchup for both teams. The loser of this game will be at a disadvantage for the playoff push. The Cowboys have lost five straight games with Tony Romo out of the lineup.

Brandon Marshall

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -2

We are especially leery of the star pass receiver. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will start the game even with torn ligaments in his left hand. His backup, Geno Smith, was nicked up in last week's loss to Oakland. Smith could play if Fitzpatrick gets re-injured. Making the situation worse for Marshall is the toe and ankle injuries sustained last Sunday. While we expect him to play, Marshall has a lower ceiling than normal.

Tight End

Jason Witten

  • Top 200 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -5

Just like with Bryant above, we have a difficult time getting behind any of the Dallas fantasy players as long as Cassel is throwing the passes. The only hope is that the Eagles can score enough points to force the Cowboys into throwing the ball down the field. Now is the time to buy, before Romo comes back.

Vernon Davis

  • Top 200 ranking: 17
  • Weekly ranking: 24
  • Difference: -7

The low rankings is not indicative of the matchup or Davis' talent. We just expect the veteran tight end to need a week or so to get acclimated into the Broncos offense. Sure, Peyton Manning could show him a little love in Davis' first game wearing a Denver jersey. But, we are not buying this week. Maybe next, though. However, beat reporter Mike Klis opined Wednesday that it could be "a month" before the newly acquired tight end "starts to become a serious threat" in the offense.

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.