This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 5
- Weekly ranking: 9
- Difference: -4
Roethlisberger has been red hot in the first two games of the season. Pittsburgh travels to St. Louis in Week 3. The Rams defense plays much better at home than on on the road, as evidenced by last week's debacle in Washington. Roethlisberger would have been ranked even lower had the bevy of quarterbacks not been injured this week. Let's remember how St. Louis shut down Seattle in week one. It could happen in this game … or at least slow down the downfield passing attack.
- Top 200 ranking: 8
- Weekly ranking: 21
- Difference: -13
Rivers and company are facing another tough defensive squad on the road this week. The Chargers travel to Minnesota to face the Vikings, a team who has yet to find their stride on offense, but is playing well on the defensive side of the ball. The back-to-back road contests will take their toll this weekend. It is difficult to recommend the San Diego passing game in Week 3.
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 3
- Weekly ranking: 8
- Difference: -5
Forte has been the lone bright spot in the Chicago Bears offense. He will have his hands full this week as his team travels to the Pacific Northwest to meet the Seattle Seahawks. Making the situation even more difficult is the hamstring injury to Jay Cutler, possibly keeping him out of the lineup. The 0-2 Bears have a tall order in from of them as the 0-2 Seahawks are hungry for a victory at home. This game could get ugly in a hurry. If so, we do not like Forte's chance to run the ball often.
- Top 200 ranking: 20
- Weekly ranking: 40
- Difference: -20
Hill is coming off a disappointing game where he was pulled from the lineup after another fumble. He must be able to not turn the ball over in order to stay on the field. Hill's absence allowed Giovani Bernard to have a monster outing against the Chargers. This week's game in Baltimore will set up a negative game script for Hill as Cincinnati will not be able to play with the lead all game, milking the clock with a strong running game … a situation in which Hill thrives. He is a player to avoid this week.
- Top 200 ranking: 22
- Weekly ranking: 30
- Difference: -8
Abdullah, like Joique Bell, struggled to get carries last week. This week, the Lions host the Broncos in a tough matchup. Denver has a strong front seven and will be focused on slowing down the electric rookie. There will be great matchups down the road. For now, it might be best to wait and see how the Detroit coaching staff uses Abdullah before inserting him back into the lineup.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 20
- Weekly ranking: 31
- Difference: -11
Cooks has been slow to warm up this season. This raises the questions regarding how he is used and if the second-year pass catcher is as good as hoped. Possibly having a backup quarterback under center will not help Cooks against the fearsome Panthers defense on the road. Josh Norman has played very well this season and could be locked on Cooks for at least half of the game.
- Top 200 ranking: 24
- Weekly ranking: 51
- Difference: -27
Tate and the Lions offense will face a stiff task against Broncos secondary. The Denver cornerbacks have played exceptionally well to begin the season. We do not recommend starting Tate this week and Calvin Johnson moves from a great WR1 candidate to a middle-of-the-road WR2. The Broncos secondary is THAT good. The only hope for either pass catcher is garbage time targets. The rib injury to quarterback Matthew Stafford only makes a bad situation worse. Tread lightly.
- Top 200 ranking: 9
- Weekly ranking: 23
- Difference: -14
Green and the Bengals offense has gotten off to a hot start to the season. Cincinnati is 2-0, traveling to Baltimore, a team who is 0-2. Yes, the Ravens defense has struggled after losing Suggs. But, this is one of those divisional matches where we can throw out the records. Baltimore is hurt, angry animal trapped into a corner. The Ravens need a win at home. Temper expectations on Green this week.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 4
- Weekly ranking: 16
- Difference: -12
Graham has not been involved in the Seattle offense, at least not to the degree he was in New Orleans. In fact, there was a report Tuesday evening detailing his frustration with the lack of pass targets. Graham is a mismatch for opposing defenses, but is not the focal point of the offense. We expect the game against the Chicago Bears to be lopsided and not many passes attempted by quarterback Russell Wilson. It might take the Seahawks until midseason to figure out how best to utilize the Pro Bowler.
- Top 200 ranking: 15
- Weekly ranking: 19
- Difference: -4
Ertz has been slow to garner the role his fantasy owners desire. The sports hernia surgery meant the absence from much of training camp. The tough game in New York against the tough Jets defense leaves Ertz as an undesirable fantasy option. We suggest avoiding the athletic tight end until his role grows. It is possible that he never surpasses Brent Celek on the depth chart.
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