This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 2
- Weekly ranking: 5
- Difference: -3
No, this ranking has nothing to do with the three consecutive losses for the Packers. Green Bay does miss Jordy Nelson. The game in Minnesota against the division leader should be a hard-fought battle. The Vikings are the fifth best defense in yielding points to opposing quarterbacks. The star quarterback is still a “must start” just one with limited upside. Coach Zimmer will have a game plan to limit the Green Bay passing game.
- Top 200 ranking: 5
- Weekly ranking: 9
- Difference: -4
Rivers is coming off the bye week and looking to right the ship. San Diego had been in a slump – aided by the injury bug – going into the bye. The Chargers host the Chiefs in a divisional bout. Kansas City held Peyton Manning and the Denver offense in check and will look to do the same to Rivers. We still like him as a start, just not as much as others.
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 4
- Weekly ranking: 10
- Difference: -6
Murray is finally healthy and looking strong. He gets the added benefit of Ryan Mathews possibly out of action. The issue is the matchup against the Tampa Bay defense. The Buccaneers are in the top one-third of run defenses in slowing down opposing tailbacks. Murray might see a heavy dose of carries with Mark Sanchez under center in a game the Eagles need to win. We do not expect there to be gaping holes against a solid run defense. Tampa Bay will want Sanchez to beat them through the air.
- Top 200 ranking: 16
- Weekly ranking: 22
- Difference: -6
Bernard has not been able to see consistent carries as he splits the load with Jeremy Hill. The game in Arizona will be a tough matchup for the Bengals running game. The Cardinals have the tenth best defense in allowing fantasy points to running backs. For two teams known for offensive prowess, we expect this Arizona-Cincinnati contest to be decided on the defensive side of the ball.
- Top 200 ranking: 3
- Weekly ranking: 6
- Difference: -3
Miller has played very well of late. He has played well, even while splitting time with rookie Jay Ajayi. The game against the Cowboys should be a good – not great – matchup for the Miami running attack. We are uncertain of Ajayi's role, but still see Miller as a middle-of-the-road fantasy RB1. The Dolphins need a win (against a team which has lost seven consecutive games) in order to remain in playoff contention. Miller is the key to the offense.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 9
- Weekly ranking: 16
- Difference: -7
Decker has played well this season, quietly performing as a fantasy WR1. We still like his chances of being a solid fantasy starter this week, just with less upside. Ryan Fitzpatrick should be back after having surgery last Friday on his injured hand. A Geno Smith sighting will be bad news for the Jets pass receivers. The game is against the Houston Texans will not be an optimal matchup. The Texans shut down the Bengals pass offense on Monday Night Football.
- Top 200 ranking: 7
- Weekly ranking: 17
- Difference: -10
Evans has loads of talent and is able to get open with ease most every week. He has quickly earned the trust of rookie quarterback Jameis Winston. The game in Philadelphia will be a tough contest for the young connection. The Eagles have an aggressive pass defense. With Vincent Jackson still sidelined, Evans will be the focal point of the secondary. Plus, the dropped passes will not help his cause.
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 15
- Difference: -9
Jeffery is battling both groin and shoulder injuries. He was obviously not at full strength last week, limping around the field. The Denver defense will be a difficult matchup for the gimpy Jeffery. With the shortage of weapons for the Bears, the Broncos will give the young star plenty of attention. We do not like his chances of making a huge impact on the game.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 11
- Weekly ranking: 14
- Difference: -3
Bennett – and his fellow Bears offensive players - will have a tough matchup against the Broncos this week. He has had three consecutive off games for fantasy owners, even with the wide receivers nicked up. We do not like the trend to be broken this week. The Jeffery injury may up the pass targets, but not enough to push the veteran tight end up the ranks. The emergence of Zach Miller has not helped recently, either.
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