In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC that is going to be held in Newport Beach, California. They have two different qualifiers this week one at the $109 price point with a maximum of 250 entries and the other at the $535 price point with a maximum of 80 entries which pays two tickets.
If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $30,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 1,510. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,020 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $5,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
TOP STACK
Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Ben Roethlisberger($6,800) and WR Antonio Brown ($6,200)
Ben Roethlisberger continues his return and should be better than he was in the first week. He is in a premiere matchup as Oakland is the second worst pass defense in the NFL as they have allowed 302 yards passing per game. Last week was a case where the game plan was quickly derailed when Le’veon Bell went down with injury, so it was a combination of Ben’s first game back and Bell’s injury that led to the Steelers only scoring 10 points. With Bell out, Roethlisberger is going to be asked to play a much bigger role quicker than expected as he is still not 100%.
VALUE STACKS
Chicago Bears – QB Jay Cutler ($6,200) and WR Alshon Jeffery ($5,600)
Jay Cutler has quickly re-established his connection with Alshon Jeffery, and now with Brandon Marshall out it seems as if Jeffery is even better without Marshall. The matchup is average, as San Diego has allowed 238 yards passing per game, but Alshon has 11+ targets in each of his three games which is a great opportunity for Alshon.
Oakland Raiders – QB Derek Carr ($6,400) and WR Amari Cooper ($5,150)
As most people expect with a rookie wide receiver there is going to be inconsistency from week to week. Amari Cooper while tremendously talented has proven this to be the case as he has three games over 100 yards and his other four games he has been held under 50 yards. This is a high risk stack this week, but the price is a tremendous value as Oakland is going to be forced to throw the ball in a high scoring game with a total of 48.5 to keep up with the Steelers offense. While we typically don’t like starting west coast teams going east for a 1:00PM game, Cooper has already passed that test with 134 yards against Cleveland in week 2. This game presents a tremendous opportunity for the unique FantasyAces double stack where you would start the two quarterbacks from the same game and stack them with their wide receivers. This would have paid off tremendously last week with Eli Manning and Drew Brees, and if there was one game that this could pay off it would be this one.
High Risk STACKS
New York Giants – QB Eli Manning ($6,950) and WR Odell Beckham Jr ($6,500)
Eli Manning proved that just when we started to forget about Odell Beckham and how great he was last year he had three touchdowns last week. This is a high risk play, as Odell Beckham has regressed a little bit to last year, but he is still priced up to last year’s salary, so he is going to have to have a big game in order to pay off his salary. The matchup isn’t an ideal one as Tampa has only allowed 222 yards per game passing, but this is one of the highest totals on the board at 50. The passing numbers for Tampa are largely skewed due to having faced, Tennessee, Houston, Carolina, Jacksonville, Washington in five of their seven games this season none of which rely as heavily on the pass as the Giants do. Beckham has tremendous upside, and we have seen that his touchdowns come in bunches as he is a very streaky player.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 5.
Quarterback – Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($6,550)
Matt Ryan is going to be one of the popular plays this week, as the San Francisco 49ers have one of the worst pass defenses in the league allowing 280 yards per game through the air. The problem with Matt Ryan is that he is going to be over-owned and he doesn’t present the upside that we typically look for in GPP plays. Ryan has only had over 300 yards twice this season and does not have a three touchdown game. There are other quarterbacks who are cheaper this week in GPP who have the same upside. In cash games he is a good play, but we do not recommend him in GPP’s.
Running Back – Darren McFadden Dallas Cowboys ($4,800)
We really like Darren McFadden in cash games, but this is another situation where McFadden is going to be over-owned due to his price, but his upside is not there to justify the high ownership. Philadelphia only allows 114 yards rushing per game so far this season, so the matchup is a tough one. McFadden in three of his last four games he has been at 3.2 yards per carry or less, which is not a great GPP play as that severely limits his upside.
Wide Receiver – Steve Johnson, San Diego Chargers ($4,350)
With Keenan Allen being out for the year, this presents a great opportunity for Steve Johnson to step in and have a bigger role in this offense. The issue is that even in games where he had eight targets he did not exceed 50 yards receiving. The question is how much is left in the tank for the 29 year old wide receiver, and with him dealing with a shoulder injury this is a week that we are going to recommend avoiding him. He will be one of the most popular plays of the day due to his price and role, but there are other receiving options on this team such as Dontrelle Inman who have the opportunity to step up in Keenan Allen’s absence.
Tight End – Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots ($5,850)
Most weeks, Gronkowski is a great GPP play, as his ability to differentiate himself at the tight end position in comparison to other tight ends is tremendous. The issue this week is that Washington is the 6th best team against tight ends, and there are other tight ends that are in a better position for you to be able to save salary. With players such as Olsen, Gates, Bennett who are all in great position to have a good game this week, we recommend avoiding Gronkowski.
Defense and Special Teams – St. Louis Rams ($2,900)
The Rams have been great for the past few weeks, but this is the first week we are recommending avoiding them. The reason is that Minnesota has only turned the ball over 8 times this season which is fourth lowest in the NFL this season. While Minnesota’s offense is not great, not turning the ball over has allowed them to have a better record than they otherwise would have.
Highest Ownership
Quarterback
Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons ($6,550)
Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers ($7,150)
Jay Cutler Chicago Bears ($6,200)
Running Back
Mark Ingram New Orleans Saints ($5,000)
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,000)
Darren McFadden Dallas Cowboys($4,800)
Wide Receiver
Martavis Bryant Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,700)
Steve Johnson San Diego Chargers ($4,350)
Michael Crabtree Oakland Raiders ($4,800)
Tight End
Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers ($4,850)
Martellus BennettChicago Bears ($4,500)
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($5,000)
Defense and Special Team
New York Jets ($3,100)
Denver Broncos ($3,300)
Atlanta Falcons ($2,700)
Low Ownership/Contrarian Plays
Quarterback
Eli Manning New York Giants ($6,950)
Tyrod Taylor Buffalo Bills ($5,850)
Derek Carr Oakland Raiders ($6,400)
Running Back
Chris Ivory, New York Jets ($4,900)
Jeremy Langford, Chicago Bears ($4,350)
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers ($4,600)
Wide Receiver
Dontrelle Inman San Diego Chargers ($3,900)
Odell Beckham Jr New York Giants ($6,500)
Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,000)
Tight End
Delanie Walker Tennessee Titans ($4,300)
Ben Watson New Orleans Saints ($4,350)
Jordan Reed Washington Redskins ($4,850)
Defense and Special Teams
Minnesota Vikings ($2,850)
Dallas Cowboys($2,500)
New Orleans Saints ($2,650)