In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC. They have two different qualifiers this week one at the $109 price point with a maximum of 250 entries and the other at the $535 price point with a maximum of 80 entries which pays two tickets.
If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $40,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 2,000. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,000 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $5,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
TOP STACK
Arizona Cardinals – QB Carson Palmer 7,100) and WR Larry Fitzgerald ($6,400)
The Cardinals passing game is in a great spot this week against Baltimore. The Ravens are allowing the 27th most passing yards per game this season. Not only did they allow Colin Kaepernick to throw for a season-high 340 yards on them last week, but they let Josh McCown set a franchise record in passing the week prior with 457 yards. Carson Palmer is averaging nearly 300 yards per game with 14 touchdowns and is coming off a season-high 421-yard performance against Pittsburgh last week. Larry Fitzgerald has been Palmer’s favorite target and one of the most consistent wide receivers in the NFL as he has yet to drop below double-digit fantasy points this season. Fitzgerald leads the league in both touchdowns (6) and receptions of 20+ yards (12), so a stack with Palmer most definitely has some huge upside.
San Diego Chargers – QB Phillip Rivers ($6,900) and WR Keenan Allen ($5,750)
Phillip Rivers has been on fire as he has passed for over 1200 yards and 7 touchdowns in the past 3 weeks. Rivers now leads the league in both pass attempts and yards, and his matchup this week is excellent facing a Raiders pass defense ranked dead last in the NFL allowing 299 passing yards per game. Their running backs have not been able to hold on to the ball, so Rivers should be primed for another big passing game as he shoulders the load again this week. The primary beneficiary of Rivers’ success has been WR1 Keenan Allen. Allen leads the league in receptions with 53, and is one of only 7 players averaging over 100 receiving yards per game this season. While there is some injury concern this week, if healthy Allen is a target monster with plenty of upside in this offense. Stacking Rivers and Allen has paid huge dividends a few times this season, and given the matchup this week, we see it as an excellent play yet again.
VALUE STACKS
Detroit Lions – QB Matt Stafford ($6,350) and WR Calvin Johnson ($5,250)
We finally saw the vintage Calvin Johnson that we are used to seeing over his career as he had six receptions for 166 yards and a touchdown. This is one of those situations where it takes a few weeks for his salary to catchup to his potential production. He has one of the highest upsides on any slate, and he is facing a Minnesota Vikings team that he had 17 targets on the road in week two. He is the main focal point of this offense even though he is now 30 years old.
Matt Stafford is a pure GPP play every single week, as he throws for enough volume that he has great upside, but the problem is that you never really know what you’re going to get with that volume as he has some of the highest variance in the league. The matchup is relatively neutral as Minnesota has allowed 240 yards passing per game, but Stafford if he’s on he has a ceiling that is as high as anyone on the slate.
Houston Texans – QB Brian Hoyer ($5,500) and WR- Deandre Hopkins ($6,100)
Deandre Hopkins is on pace to have a huge record breaking season. He has had double digit targets every single week this season, as he has 52 receptions for 726 yards. The only issue if you’re going to complain about Hopkins this year is that his touchdowns have been largely inconsistent which is a huge factor in a cash game, but not a huge factor in a GPP, as in a GPP you’re looking at upside and he has the upside to have a two touchdown game having done this twice already in the six games that the team has played.
Hoyer is one of the best values on this slate, as he continues to show that he is fantasy relevant each week. The matchup is relatively neutral as Miami has allowed the 16th most passing yards at 247 per game. He has thrown for an average of 302 yards and 2.5 touchdowns over the last two games and should be in a great position to continue to find Hopkins as he has done so far this year.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 5.
Quarterback – Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($6,850)
Matt Ryan is going to be a popular play due to the Falcons being 7 point favorites and an expected point total of 26.5. The problem for the Falcons is that Tennessee has one of the top pass defenses in the NFL as they have only allowed 184 yards passing per game, which while part of that is skewed due to their schedule, they are still facing NFL talent. At this price, Ryan is just not a top option this week, as there are better plays with more upside at a cheaper price point such as Eli Manning, Cam Newton, and Matt Stafford.
Running Back – Frank Gore Indianapolis Colts ($4,400)
New Orleans run defense is very poor as it is third worst in the league allowing 138 yards per game on the ground. The matchup combined with the price is going to drive Frank Gore’s ownership percentage up this week. The problem with this however is that Frank Gore has not seen the number of carries that we typically want to see in a GPP running back. Typically you want a running back who can go for over 100 yards which Gore has yet to do as the coaches keep talking about the pitch count that he is on as they try to keep him fresh throughout the year. While Gore is a good cash game play at this price, it is difficult to recommend using a roster spot on a player whose upside is 80-90 yards and a touchdown. If he was going to be under-owned we would consider it, but considering his ownership is going to be relatively high, this is not a play we can recommend this week.
Wide Receiver – Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins ($4,550)
The Miami Dolphins culture has completely changed so far under the new coach Dan Campbell. They seem to be going to a team that is going to be run heavy with Lamar Miller and not pass nearly as much as the previous Joe Philbin regime. This issue was clear last week as Jarvis Landry who is typically a high volume receiver only saw four total targets. With Landry not scoring a lot of touchdowns during his career, he is going to rely on catching the football along with yardage and if he is not getting the targets he is going to be in a difficult spot to have the upside that you’re looking for in a GPP. The price is great and his ownership percentage will be higher due to this, which is another reason we are recommending to not start him this week.
Tight End – Antonio Gates ($4,800)
Antonio Gates has come back from suspension looking like a completely different player this year. It appears that the time off has rejuvenated him for this season, which his recent success is going to drive up his ownership percentage this week. He has 27 targets in two games this season which is extremely high for a tight end. The issue is that he is dealing with an MCL sprain that has him questionable for this game. While all signs are pointing towards him playing in this game, it is not a great situation when you factor in that anything that will slow the 35 year old down may severely hurt his production.
The Oakland Raiders have one of the worst passing defenses in the country and have been horrible against the tight end, but we recommend fading Gates this week, as he is a guy who we are more concerned about the injury than the matchup. He should be one of the highest owned players on this slate, which if he performs poorly gives you a great advantage over your competition.
Defense and Special Teams – St. Louis Rams ($2,650)
The St. Louis Rams are going to be one of the highest owned defenses this week and for good reason. The Browns are projected to score the lowest amount of the points this week as they go on the road to face a good Rams defense. This is our preferred cash game play this week, as their floor is the highest on the board, but for GPP’s we cannot recommend the Rams this defense this week as they are 11th in team takeaways with nine forced turnovers this season. The Browns turnover numbers look worse than they truly are due to Johnny Manziel turning the ball over five times on his own due to a bad fumbling habit in the two games that he started at quarterback.
Highest Ownership
Quarterback
Cam Newton Carolina Panthers ($6,700)
Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers ($6,900)
Carson Palmer Arizona Cardinals ($7,000)
Running Back
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccanneers($4,800)
Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts ($4,650)
Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins ($4,800)
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs Minnesota Vikings ($4,000)
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($5,450)
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts ($4,800)
Tight End
Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers ($4,800)
Gary BarnidgeCleveland Browns ($4,800))
Greg Olsen Carolina Panthers ($5,200)
Defense and Special Team
St. Louis Rams ($2,650)
Washington Redskins ($2,650)
Miami Dolphins ($2,500)
Low Ownership/Contrarian Plays
Quarterback
Brian Hoyer Houston Texans ($5,500)
Zach Mettenberger Tennessee Titans ($4,800)
Eli Manning New York Giants ($6,750)
Running Back
Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams ($6,000)
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints ($4,900)
Arian Foster, Houston Texans ($5,600)
Wide Receiver
Steve Smith Baltimore Ravens ($4,650)
Amari Cooper Oakland Raiders ($5,300)
Willie Snead New Orleans Saints ($4,300)
Tight End
Delanie Walker Tennessee Titans ($4,350)
Ben Watson New Orleans Saints ($3,900)
Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs ($4,750)
Defense and Special Teams
San Diego Chargers ($2,600)
New England Patriots($2,800)
Houston Texans ($2,600)
