In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC that is at the Palms in Las Vegas. They have two different qualifiers this week one at the $109 price point with a maximum of 250 entries and the other at the $535 price point with a maximum of 80 entries which pays two tickets.
If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $40,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 2,000. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,000 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $5,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
TOP STACK
New England Patriots – QB Tom Brady($7,100) and TE Rob Gronkowski ($6,400)
This is our favorite stack of the week, but is likely to be the most popular. Tom Brady is on a mission to set every possible NFL record as vengeance for the Deflategate situation prior to this season. This game has even more to watch as the Colts were the team that started this Deflategate situation, so if there ever was extra motivation this would be the game. The over under in this game is 54, which the Patriots are projected to score 32 points. This is by far the top stack and should be highly used in all of your cash games, while it will be popular in GPP’s with how large the rosters are on Fantasy Aces this is one of the times that you may not want to fade the chalk play.
Green Bay Packers – QB Aaron Rodgers($7,500) and WR Randall Cobb ($5,800)
If you are looking to fade the Patriots stack, it might be wise to look at the Packers combination. While it has been a few weeks since they hooked up for three touchdowns against the Chiefs, this is the perfect time to go back to them. The Packers have the second highest expected points on the board. This is a team that allowed 356 yards passing to Josh McCown and the Cleveland Browns offense. While the Chargers have been pretty good overall against the pass, this is the type of matchup Aaron Rodgers is looking to rebound after his worst home start in 3 years. Over the course of his career, Rodgers has been a different quarterback at home where he had a QBR of 133.2 at home and threw 25 touchdowns at home. Cobb’s recent slump has a direct correlation with Rodgers, and we fully expect that the combo will try to get back in sync this week.
VALUE STACKS
Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Blake Bortles ($5,800) and WR Allen Hurns ($4,700)
Blake Bortles has been a great surprise this season, and his price has not adjusted to his production. Bortles is currently on pace to throw for 4,157 yards this season with 32 touchdowns which would put him in great company for the second year quarterback. Coming off three state road starts the Jaguars return home to a favorable matchup against a Texans team that so far this season has been pretty good against the pass statistically. However, the Texans have not faced a team that was as committed to the pass as the Jaguars are (except for Atlanta, but that game was a blowout situation). This is the type of stack that will allow you to save enough salary that you will be able to spend up on another position. Bortles also has been running more than a lot of quarterbacks having ran for 20+ yards in four of the five games this season.
Allen Hurns is coming off two straight 116 yard games, he draws a favorable matchup as Allen Robinson should see a significant amount of Jonathan Joseph. The Texans have allowed more fantasy points this season to the number two wide receivers on a team than the number one, which is why we prefer Hurns over Robinson in a GPP, as he will also be lower owned than Robinson. He is questionable for this matchup, so make sure that he is playing.
Detroit Lions – QB Matthew Stafford ($6,150) and WR Calvin Johnson ($5,000)
If we were to tell you that Calvin Johnson was priced at $5,000 over the course of the last several years he would be a plug and play. The Bears defense so far this season has left a lot to be desired, and it is reflected in the line this weekend as the Lions are favored by three points at home. The one great thing about the Lions is that they are still throwing the ball as much as they ever have averaging 46 times per game so far this season. Calvin Johnson has seen 10+ targets in three of the five games. While it is risky, he is still Calvin Johnson and he is only $5,000 which allows you to spend big elsewhere. Calvin will be highly owned due to his name, but Stafford should throw 45-50 times which him a high upside play.
HIGH RISK STACK
Houston Texans – QB Brian Hoyer ($5,300) and WR- Deandre Hopkins ($5,700)
Brian Hoyer is showing once again that in short spurts he can be fantasy relevant as last week he had 312 yards passing against the Colts. While the Jaguars pass defense is slightly better than the Colts, they still are in the bottom third in the league. With Arian Foster still not 100% healthy, this is a great opportunity for him to continue to build on the success that he had last week. Hoyer is risky as if he gets off to a slow start there is always the potential of Bill O’Brien to make a quarterback change, but he is a streaky quarterback that at $5,300 is one of the best values of the day.
Deandre Hopkins has been one of the highest targeted wide receivers in the NFL. Once Andre Johnson left the team he really is the only show in town. He has had 11+ targets each week including a week that he had 22 targets. This stack overall is risky due to the nature of the Texans offense, but Hopkins plays such a critical role in this offense that his upside is one of the highest in the NFL.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 5.
Quarterback – Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,850)
Andy Dalton seems to be getting a lot of hype this weekend largely due to Buffalo allowing 274 yards passing per game which is 24th in the league. The issue with that is that those statistics are largely skewed as they have faced teams with strong quarterback play so far. Andy Dalton is a safe play, but he doesn’t really present the 3-4 passing touchdown upside that you typically are going to look for when you’re taking an expensive quarterback. For GPP’s you are looking for pure upside, but Andy Dalton has the same upside as a player like Brian Hoyer or Blake Bortles.
Running Back – Charcandrick West, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,400)
Let’s start this by saying that in cash games we love Charcandrick West. Minnesota has allowed 125 yards per game rushing, and we fully expect Charcandrick to get the bulk load of the work this week. The issue with Charcandrick is that he is going to be one of the highest owned players on this slate. We believe that he is going to be good long-term for your season long leagues, but realistically until we see him play it is largely speculation. This is one of those situations where if he does not score a touchdown you are immediately able to get a leg up on the competition.
Wide Receiver – Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,950)
Jeremy Maclin is another guy who we love in cash games, but want to fade in GPP’s. The reason for this is that the Chiefs just do not throw touchdowns to wide receivers. Minnesota is 12th in passing yards allowed, which is not an ideal situation combining a wide receiver who doesn’t score touchdowns with a wide receiver who is in a tough matchup. He will be over-owned due to his price and some of the yardage numbers that he has posted in the past, but since FantasyAces is not a full point PPR it will be hard for Maclin to hit the 20 points needed in order to hit GPP value.
Tight End – Gary Barnidge ($4,550)
Gary Barnidge is off to an incredible start this season, the issue though is that the Browns are in a tough spot as Denver’s defense is one of the best in the NFL holding Travis Kelce to four catches for only 58 yards. The Broncos have a secondary who is one of the top in the leagues allowing just 192 yards passing per game. The Broncos will focus on shutting down Barnidge and will be over-owned based on his past production.
Defense and Special Teams – Seattle Seahawks ($2,800)
The Seahawks every single week are one of the highest owned defenses and in a game with the Panthers only expected to score 17 points, the Seahawks will be highly owned. What most people will disregard is that the Panthers do not turn the ball over. They have only turned the ball over three times this season so far which is the lowest in the league. With how run heavy the Panthers are, it is not recommended to start a defense against as the upside just is not there with how limited the turnovers are.
Highest Ownership
Quarterback
Tom Brady New England Patriots ($7,400)
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,800)
Carson Palmer Arizona Cardinals ($6,800)
Running Back
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers ($4,950)
Dion Lewis, New England Patriots ($4,800)
Charcandrick West Kansas City Chiefs ($4,400)
Wide Receiver
Larry Fitzgerald Arizona Cardinals ($5,300)
Jeremy Maclin Kansas City Chiefs ($4,950)
Calvin Johnson Detroit Lions ($5,000)
Tight End
Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers ($4,350)
Gary BarnidgeCleveland Browns ($4,550)
Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots ($5,800)
Defense and Special Team
New York Jets ($3000)
Seattle Seahawks ($3,200)
Detroit Lions ($2,500)
Low Ownership/Contrarian Plays
Quarterback
Brian Hoyer Houston Texans ($5,300)
Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers ($7,500)
Peyton Manning Denver Broncos ($7,000)
Running Back
C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos ($4,700)
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers ($4,650)
Matt Forte, Chicago Bears ($5,800)
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants ($6,400)
Emmanuel Sanders Denver Broncos ($5,700)
Randall Cobb Green Bay Packers ($5,800)
Tight End
Tyler Eifert Cincinnati Bengals ($4,900)
Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs ($4,650)
Martellus Bennett Chicago Bears ($4,650)
Defense and Special Teams
Arizona Cardinals ($2,950)
Green Bay Packers($2,900)
Denver Broncos ($3,100)