In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC that is at the Palms in Las Vegas. They have two different qualifiers this week one at the $109 price point with a maximum of 250 entries, and the other at the $215 price point with a maximum of 275 entries which pays out two tickets.
If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $50,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 2,500. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,000 entries.
TOP STACKS
Atlanta Falcons – QB Matt Ryan ($6,900) and WR Julio Jones ($6,000)
Last week Julio Jones showed how great of a player he is, so this one is going to be one of the more obvious stacks of the day. He had 9 catches for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jones repeating this numbers is not out of the question, as the Giants secondary is beatable, and Jones had 11 targets last week against the Eagles. Vegas has this targeted at one of the highest games of the day with an over under at 51, so there should be plenty of points to go around and Julio plays such an key position in this offense that we expect big things out of him. This stack will be the most popular on the board, and for good reason, but should still be considered as it is one of the safest stacks out there.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- QB Ben Roethlisberger ($6,750) and WR Antonio Brown ($6,100)
This stack is going to be in this article a lot this year, as it is the definition of matchup proof and safe. The 49ers looked great in their win against the Vikings, but this Steelers offense is much better than the Vikings offense that is still trying to find their rhythm. Antonio Brown has proven that there is not a more consistent wide receiver in the game, and should be considered every single week. Vegas has this game at an over under at 45.5, which while below average the Steelers are a 7 point favorite, which has their expected point total at 26. This stack may not have the upside due to the matchup that some of the other stacks have, but it should still be in consideration as it will be severely under-owned.
San Diego Chargers – QB Phillip Rivers ($6,600) and WR Keenan Allen ($5,000)
Keenan Allen had 15 catches last week against the Detroit Lions, and while the Chargers go on the road this week against the Bengals, the over under in this game is 47, which is about league average. At $5,000 to have a wide receiver have the upside of 10-15 catches, puts him in the category of wide receivers who are $1,000 more expensive than him. Find a way to capture this profit and fit Allen into your lineup. Rivers threw the ball 42 times last week for 400+ yards, and without a solid running game this team is going to develop into a team that is going to throw for a significant amount of yardage.
VALUE STACKS
Philadelphia Eagles -- QB Sam Bradford ($6,400) and WR Jordan Matthews ($4,700)
Another combination of a wide receiver having a large number of targets, as Matthews ended up with 13 targets catching 10 of them for 102 yards. He did not find the end zone, which was disappointing, but at $4,700 he makes for one of the best value wide receivers of the slate. Bradford has shown his ability to throw for a high volume passing 52 times versus the Falcons in week one and makes a great stack with Matthews. This game is the highest over under on the day at 55, which for an NFL game will be one of the highest of the season, Bradford will be forced to throw the ball often and Matthews is clearly the number one guy this season. Matthews and Bradford are just too low priced and make for one of the top stacks of the day.
New Orleans Saints – Drew Brees ($6,900) and Brandin Cooks ($4,850)
We all saw what Marcus Mariota was able to do against the Tampa Bay secondary last week. This week should be no different for Drew Brees and company as he is at home against what looks like will be one of the worst teams in football this season. While Cooks did not have a great opening week with only 4 catches for 49 yards, he was in a difficult matchup as Patrick Peterson was on him most of the game. Fortunately for Cooks, the Buccaneers do not have anyone of the caliber of Peterson and allowed 101 yards to Kendall Wright. We expect a heavy usage of Cooks as the Saints look to re-establish the connection of Brees/Cooks that was there prior to the Cooks injury.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 2.
Quarterback – Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts ($7,100)
The Colts are facing one of the toughest matchups in week two and there are better options than to spend the $7,100 to pay up for Andrew Luck. With T.Y Hilton looking like he will be unable to go, this puts Revis most likely on either Donte Moncrief or Andre Johnson. This is not a great situation for the Colts, as while they’re at home facing a Revis lead secondary without your top receiver is not an ideal situation. While Vegas hasn’t adjusted the line too much as the over under is still 46.5, there are better ways to spend your money this week than to go with Luck.
Running Back – Carlos Hyde ($4,650)
Carlos Hyde will likely be the highest owned player on this slate for multiple reasons. First everyone saw what he did on Monday night against the Minnesota Vikings, it looked as if he was back at Ohio State facing Indiana, as he was able to do whatever he wanted in that game. Second, his price is far too low, as this is a situation where the pricing for the next week comes out prior to the Monday night games being finished. Therefore you have a perfect storm, where if you’re in a cash game he looks like he is a must start. Since this article is covering GPP’s we are going to advise that you fade him this week, as coaches have seen film on him from last week, and while this isn’t the Steelers defense that we are used to, it is still Dick Lebeau who will be looking to shut down his fellow Buckeye and not be embarrassed like Minnesota was in week one.
Wide Receiver – Donte Moncrief ($4,100)
Last week we recommended avoiding Davante Adams as he was going to be over-owned in GPP formats, and the production was largely unproven. This is the exact same for Donte Moncrief as he will be over-owned especially if T.Y Hilton is ruled out prior to Monday. Moncrief is likely going to have to go up against Darrelle Revis, which makes this matchup even worse than it otherwise would have been. There is a lot of things to like about Moncrief, and if you are looking at him as a way to save salary in a cash game format that is fine, but there is too much hype for us to recommend him and therefore he has to be our fade of the week.
Tight End – Rob Gronkowski ($5,850)
Everyone saw how great he was in week one, but now that week one is over, let’s take a step back and reassess prior to just plugging him into our lineups. Rex Ryan has seemingly been the only one to shut down Gronk, as in the two games he faced Rex Ryan he had a total of 99 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo has a great defense as we saw last week against the Colts. Gronk will be one of the highest owned players on this slate as people are going to be blinded by the week one great game, but there are better ways to spend your money this week.
Defense and Special Teams – Arizona Cardinals ($3,000)
While the Cardinals are facing Jay Cutler who loves to turn the ball over, they are going on the road after an emotional win against the Saints at home. Patrick Peterson is a superstar in the league, but the Bears aren’t a team that is going to beat you with a traditional number one receiver. The Bears are a team that are going to beat you with Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett, which both should pose matchup problems for the Cardinals this week. The over/under in this game is 46.5 in a game that should be close this week. There are just better options to choose from this week than the Cardinals even though they will be highly owned due to Cutler’s history of turnovers.
HIGHEST OWNERSHIP
Quarterback
Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,400)
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($6,900)
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints ($6,900)
Running Back
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers ($4,650)
Karlos Williams, Buffalo Bills ($3,000)
Matt Forte, Chicago Bears ($5,850)
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($6,000)
Jordan Matthews Philadelphia Eagles ($4,700)
Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers ($5,000)
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots ($5,850)
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,250)
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($4,300)
Defense and Special Teams
Miami Dolphins ($3,000)
St. Louis Rams ($3,100)
Baltimore Ravens ($3,000)
LOW OWNERSHIP/Contrarian Plays
Quarterback
Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers ($6,600)
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins ($6,550)
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals ($6,500)
Running Back
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints ($4,750)
Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins ($4,800)
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings ($6,000)
Wide Receiver
A.J Green, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,300)
Deandre Hopkins, Houston Texans ($5,000)
John Brown, Arizona Cardinals ($4,400)
Tight End
Tyler Eifert, Cincinnat Bengals ($4,500)
Ladarius Green San Diego Chargers ($4,100)
Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys ($4,750)
Defense and Special Teams
New Orleans Saints ($2,750)
Indianapolis Colts ($2,700)
Carolina Panthers ($3,000)
