In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC that is going to be held in Newport Beach, California. They have two different qualifiers this week one at the $109 price point with a maximum of 250 entries and the other at the $535 price point with a maximum of 80 entries which pays two tickets.
If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $30,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 1,510. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,020 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $5,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
TOP STACK
Green Bay Packers – QB Aaron Rodgers($7,550) and WR Randall Cobb ($5,150)
Aaron Rodgers has struggled over the last few games, but he is back home this week which he has one of the biggest home road splits in the NFL over the course of his career. At home his completion percentage is 3% higher, he has thrown for 21 more career touchdowns, and his yard per attempt is 8.48 compared to 7.91. This is a much needed reset for Rodgers as he is returning home against the Lions who are allowing 252 yards passing per game and have not won at Lambeau since 1991. Randall Cobb finally is seeing more targets after Davante Adams returned from injury and the defense has someone else to focus on besides just Cobb. He had 12 targets against Carolina which is right on pace with what we saw earlier in the season when Adams was healthy. Cobb is underpriced, which should help alleviate some of the salary constraints that will be brought on by starting Rodgers
VALUE STACKS
Houston Texans – QB Brian Hoyer ($5,700) and WR Deandre Hopkins ($6,200)
While Deandre Hopkins has struggled a little bit over the last few games, his targets have remained consistent. He faced a very tough Tennessee secondary last week, and the game prior to that was against Miami and the game was never competitive. This should be the week that Hopkins gets back on track, as while they’re big underdogs Houston should be forced to throw the ball quite a bit this week. Hopkins has eleven or more targets in each game this season, and that’s exactly what you want to look for in a GPP.
Oakland Raiders – QB Blake Bortles ($6,300) and WR Allen Robinson($5,000)
Baltimore continues to have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, as they’re allowing 288 yards passing per game. While Bortles price has continued to rise, Robinson is still underpriced this week. Robinson has nine or more targets in every game over his last seven games. At $5,000 in a premium matchup, Robinson is one of the top plays of the day with or without Bortles.
High Risk STACKS
New York Giants – QB Eli Manning ($6,650) and WR Odell Beckham Jr ($6,350)
There is not a wide receiver with more upside on a weekly basis than Odell Beckham Jr. This week is no different as the Giants will be forced to throw the ball in what is projected to be the highest scoring game of the day. With no consistent run game, Beckham had 17 targets last week, which he should see double digit targets again this week. The Patriots pass defense allows 244 yards per game, but so far this season the Patriots have had one of the most favorable schedules in terms of quarterbacks that they have faced.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 5.
Quarterback – Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins ($5,500)
Kirk Cousins is going to be the highest owned player at quarterback this week, and possibly the highest owned of any positions. Yes, New Orleans has one of the worst passing defenses in the league and are coming off of a game where Marcus Mariota threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns. However, let’s assume Kirk Cousins has a bust rate of 25%, so a 75% chance to make value which seems high. Now let’s assume he is 40-50% owned, you essentially have a 25% chance to get a major advantage over 50% of the field. There is not a statistic that can tell me he is a bad play, this is purely a move to fade the highest owned player on the board.
Running Back – Deangelo Williams Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,300)
We fully expect Deangelo Williams to be the highest owned running back on this slate and for good reason. Cleveland has the worst run defense in the league, and with Le’veon Bell out for the season, Williams will continue to see the bulk workload. So the question becomes why fade him? In cash games, we are absolutely going to have Williams, but this game is projected to be one of the lowest scored games this week. There are plenty of options this week at the running back position and guys that are cheaper who are also in great matchups (Mark Ingram, Demarco Murray, and Darren McFadden). He is still 32 years old, and is not the most skilled running back on the slate, which causes concern and if he struggles you’ll have a tremendous advantage over the field.
Wide Receiver – Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,300)
Mike Evans continues to be underpriced and while we have recommended him for the past few weeks, we are recommending fading him this week. The issue is not a Tampa Bay issue it is more of a Cowboys issue. With Sean Lee being out for this game, we expect that Tampa Bay is going to go to a run heavy offense which will limit Evans’ upside. We have seen high ownership percentages in each of the last few weeks, and we expect that to continue this week, but this is the week that we are finally recommending going in a different direction. There are also better options at the same price than there have been in previous weeks, players such as Randall Cobb ($5,150), Allen Robinson ($5,000), Calvin Johnson ($5,450) are all in the same price range as Evans.
Tight End – Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,600)
Travis Kelce is typically a great GPP play, as a few times per year he will have a two touchdown game. His price has gotten to a point where his ownership percentage is going to start increasing, but we recommend waiting another week before jumping in at the discounted price tag. The primary reason is that the Denver defense has the best pass defense in the NFL and Kelce has already struggled against them once this season.
Defense and Special Teams – Baltimore Ravens ($2,650)
The Baltimore defense has not been the same Ray Lewis lead defense for a few years, but for whatever reason they still have a perception that they force turnovers and their ownership percentages are too high every single week. So far this season they have four total turnovers which is last in the league, and they are one of the worst against the pass. While Jacksonville has thrown ten interceptions this season, Baltimore only has three total takeaways this season, there are better options this week.
Highest Projected Ownership
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins Washington Redskins ($5,500)
Drew Brees New Orleans Saints ($7,500)
Blake Bortles Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,300)
Running Back
Deangelo Williams Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,300)
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,900)
Mark Ingram New Orleans Saints ($5,000)
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,000)
Michael Crabtree Oakland Raiders ($4,900)
Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,300)
Tight End
Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,950)
Delanie WalkerTennessee Titans ($4,550)
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($5,100)
Defense and Special Team
St. Louis Rams ($2,900)
Green Bay Packers ($2,750)
Baltimore Ravens ($2,650)
Low Ownership/Contrarian Plays
Quarterback
Eli Manning New York Giants ($6,650)
Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers ($7,550)
Derek Carr Oakland Raiders ($6,650)
Running Back
Demarco Murray Philadelphia Eagles ($4,850)
Lamar Miller Miami Dolphins ($5,100)
Jeremy Langford Chicago Bears ($4,750)
Wide Receiver
Deandre Hopkins Houston Texans ($6,200)
Calvin Johnson Detroit Lions ($5,450)
Brandin Cooks New Orleans Saints ($4,800)
Tight End
Martellus Bennett Chicago Bears ($4,450)
Ben Watson New Orleans Saints ($4,500)
Jordan Reed Washington Redskins ($4,800)
Defense and Special Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers ($2,950)
Denver Broncos($3,300)
Oakland Raiders ($2,600)
