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Fanduel Cash Game Strategy
As part of our preseason college football content, we take a look at strategies that will help you build winning College Football lineups.
Quarterback
For most weeks the disparity between the highest priced quarterback and the lowest priced quarterback is too severe to attempt to go cheap at the position. For example, in our season-long projections we have Taysom Hill (BYU) as our number one quarterback for this upcoming season. FootballGuys has him projected at 32.75 Fanduel points per week. To compare Taysom Hill to our #80 ranked quarterback in Chad Voytik (Pitt), Voytik is only projected to have 17.3 points per week. This is a situation where you can immediately get an extra 15 points per week, which is very significant as there are typically enough value plays at other positions to make up for the extra salary that you are going spend on a top end option.
That’s not to say that you should always take the most expensive quarterback, but what we will typically recommend is to look at the Expected Points/salary for your top 5 quarterbacks and to take whichever quarterback rates out the highest. Using this approach allows you to ensure that you are not missing any value quarterbacks who may allow you to upgrade another position by downgrading slightly off of your top option. The reason we do not recommend going outside of the top 5, is that the lower you go the greater the variance is in the players that you may be starting. Cash games are all about reducing risk, so reducing the amount of variance is key to being successful on a week to week basis.
The only time we recommend going below a top 5 option is if there is a severe miss with pricing. For week one, once our slate breakdown is released you will see that we have Thomas Sirk as a recommended option. At $5,100, this is at least $1,500 lower than he should be priced. Therefore, when these pricing errors occur, the player will be 50%+ owned, and therefore he becomes almost a must play. In cash games, if a player is going to be 50%+ owned it is typically recommended to start him, as there is no reason to differentiate yourself or go contrarian in this situation.
Running Back
With Fanduel being only 0.5 points per reception, in our opinion it is all about volume and red zone looks. The difference between 5 receptions and 0 receptions is very minimal, so look at the workhorse running backs. Typically taking a running back that is a favorite to win the game is the recommended option. The reason for this is relatively simple, if a team is the favorite, they’re more likely to score more touchdowns, as well as get significant volume towards the end of the game when the team has a lead.
Early on in the season, avoid the players who are in smaller conferences that are going up against one of the elite large conference teams. The reason for this is two-fold, the first being that often times the games are not competitive, so the teams either pull their starters or throw the ball heavily. The second reason for this is that the talent disparity on the lines makes it very difficult for the team to consistently run the ball.
One thing to note is that for great players in small conferences that are playing poor power 5 conference teams, this becomes a great opportunity to take this player. Some examples of these teams are Purdue, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Cal, Colorado, etc. The reason for this is that the smaller conference teams have a legitimate chance at winning the game, and the only way to win is to ride their top players to victory. A key example of this last year was Thomas Rawls vs Purdue, in which he had 31 carries for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns along with 3 receptions for 50 yards. He was their star running back at the time, and Central Michigan rode him to victory.
Running backs in the Big 10 and SEC are typically the running backs that we recommend targeting throughout the season as you will typically see running backs that will have 20-25 carries per game. Often times the expected total points is lower, as the teams are lower tempo and more willing to keep the ball on the ground. This is especially true in the Big 10 when the weather starts to turn bad late in the season. As the season goes on, the running backs role will typically be more defined compared to early in the season. Early on the season we will typically play it more conservatively and take the returning players from last year as their role is more defined. The Freshman are a lot like rookies in the NFL, where all it takes is one fumble and you’re looking at a 0 from the running back for that week.
One mistake new players make, is that they go in with a set strategy prior to actually looking at the slate or salaries. For example, there are players who will take the top priced running back every week. The key to college football just like all of DFS is the ability to adapt your strategy week to week to find where the values are that will allow you to score the most points.
Wide Receivers
Touchdowns and yards are the key here. Ultimately when evaluating the wide receiver position, you need to look for two things. The first thing is the opportunity for the wide receiver. We typically target teams that are in pass heavy conferences such as the Pac 12 and Big 12 are great here as these teams are setup to throw the ball 40-50 times per game, thus allowing the opportunity to be greater for the wide receivers on those teams.
The second thing that you’re going to want to look at is the spread of the game. If a team is 21+ point favorites, you probably won’t want to take the wide receivers of that team in cash games as the game could get out of hand early, and the team will turn to a more conservative run based offense to bleed the clock. One of the factors that is included in our projections is a coaching factor which will take into account how each coach handles a blowout. Some coaches leave their starters in the game well into the fourth quarter during a blowout, while other coaches will pull or rotate their wide receivers once they’re up 2-3 scores.
Finally, weather can also play a factor in selecting wide receiversas the season moves along. Outside of snow, wind is the biggest factor from a DFS perspective. If the wind is 15+ MPH, then this will downgrade the wide receiver pretty significantly especially if he is a downfield type wide receiver. One thing to call out is that light rain is typically one of the more overblown statistics from a DFS perspective if there is no wind. Obviously if it is a substantial rain, then it will downgrade the wide receivers, however if the rain is the typical light drizzle/mist that we see in the fall, most of the time there is very little impact to performance of a wide receiver as the teams are not going to change their spread offenses due to a light rain.
Tight End
Tight Ends are the one position where it truly varies week to week depending on the slate. If there is a premier option such as Jonnu Smith, Cam Serigne, Bucky Hodges, we typically recommend that you find a way get them into your lineup. The reason for this is that the amount of fantasy relevant tight ends is so limited. For example, in our season long projections, Jonnu Smith is projected to score 13.75 points per week; meanwhile the tight ends that are ranked 40-65 are projected to only score 3.59 points per week. Therefore it is a significant disparity between the top end option and the lower end option. If you elect to go down the lower option, all you will be hoping for is a touchdown, which is very difficult to predict on a week to week basis.
For slates that there is not a top option tight end, this is where it becomes significantly more difficult. Typically what you are going to want to look for in cash games is consistency. Last year, a tight end such as Steven Scheu is a perfect example of this. The reason for this is that you could lock him in for consistent results as he had 3+ catches in 10 of his 12 games. Therefore, if his price is good he becomes a good play each week to lock in 5-7 points with upside if he scores a touchdown.