A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Percy Harvin, Sea
Adam Harstad: Percy Harvin joins Randy Moss and A.J. Green as the only receivers active since 2000 to begin their careers with three straight top-24 finishes. In his last full season of action, Harvin was WR8. At the time of his injury in 2012, Harvin was WR3. Perennially overlooked because of his underwhelming receiving numbers, Harvin more than any receiver in history is a great bet to pad his totals with some sneaky rushing production. A 70-catch, 900-yard season looks a whole lot better if you add in another 40 carries for 240 yards, too.
Ryan Hester: Harvin was injured almost all of last season, but when healthy, he was unleashed in the Super Bowl. With only five offensive touches and one special teams touch, Harvin made two plays of at least 30 yards including a 30-yard run play and an 87-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Harvin is like a speedy sports car. Imagine getting said new car and then having someone take the keys away for a year. How badly would you want to drive that car once you got the keys back? That’s how Seattle’s offensive staff is likely to view Harvin. He’s a touchdown waiting to happen on any given play.
Bob Magaw: Before his recent injuries, Harvin was an ascendant player having an Offensive Player of the Year-type campaign midway through the 2012 season. In his three years prior to that, he missed just three games combined, and though a sixth year vet, he just turned 26 and isn’t exactly a geezer. As to usage, the Seahawks paid a first round plus premium to acquire Harvin, than immediately paid him top 5 WR money, so it would be understandable if they want to maximize their ROI, ostensibly conservative, ground-based scheme notwithstanding. The Super Bowl was strong evidence that the pre-season hip surgery didn’t rob him of any of his signature suddenness, instant acceleration and freakish burst that makes him one of the most dynamic playmakers and electrifying game breakers at any position across the NFL landscape.
Chad Parsons: Like Rob Gronkowski, Percy Harvin has been a points-per-game monster in his career and is being discounted for his non-related string of injuries. In 2011 when Harvin played 16 games, he was WR7. In 2010, he was WR20 despite missing a game. Harvin now is healthy and with his best quarterback of his career, a rising Russell Wilson, and poised for a second WR1 campaign.
Jason Wood: Harvin has only played 55 of 80 regular season games, and essentially missed all of the 2013 season. Yet, Harvin scored two touchdowns (one receiving, one on a return) in the Super Bowl and flashed the explosive element he was meant to add to the Seahawks when they signed him to a 6-year, $67mm contract. He enters this preseason healthy, and the Seahawks need him to step into a major role with Golden Tate signing in Detroit. You may not get 16 games from Harvin, but even 12-14 games at his production will make him a draft day steal.
Greg Jennings, Min
Cian Fahey: Teddy Bridgewater is the most pro-ready quarterback of the 2014 rookie class. However, he is not guaranteed a starting spot at this point because Matt Cassel actually performed adequately last season. If Bridgewater does overtake Cassel before the start of the regular season, Greg Jennings should be the biggest benefactor. Jennings is still a very talented receiver who can work all over the field. He fits well with Bridgewater because the rookie quarterback should excel throwing to intermediate routes. Routes that Jennings can consistently get open on.
Steve Holloway: Greg Jennings signed a five-year $45 Million contract with the Vikings in March of 2013, but all of the guarantees are up after this season. He disappointed last year and the year before, his last in Green Bay. Prior to that though, he finished in the top 20 four seasons in a row averaging over 1,000 yards receiving and 8.5 TDs per season. Last year, Minnesota’s quarterback play was mediocre at best with the team using Cassel, Ponder and a one game disaster with Josh Freeman. Even with the poor passing attack, Jennings missing a game and only getting 106 targets on the season, he finished WR33 in ppr scoring. The team drafted Teddy Bridgewater and most expect improved quarterback play. Jennings could produce better than a year ago and yet is currently being drafted at WR 56. Solid value play late as a WR3.
Alex Miglio: Going from Aaron Rodgers to Christian Ponder will be bad for your fantasy health. Just ask Greg Jennings, who chose to go from quarterback heaven to purgatory when he signed with the Minnesota Vikings last year. It was a down season, but not all was lost—Jennings quietly made some noise in games Matt Cassel was under center. In fact, the veteran receiver averaged over two more receptions, over 20 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns more with Cassel as the signal caller than when Ponder or Josh Freeman were at the helm. That is a good sign heading into this season, because it seems either Cassel or rookie Teddy Bridgewater will be quarterbacking the Vikings offense.
Jeff Tefertiller: Greg Jennings had some bid games last year with Matt Cassel under center. Cassel is expected to start most of the games this season for the Vikings. Jennings is not going until the twelfth round and looks like a fantasy WR3. He should outproduce youngster Cordarrelle Patterson, even though the second-year player gets all of attention.
Matt Waldman: Unless the statement “Greg Jennings isn’t the receiver he was in Green Bay,” follows the qualifier “Because the gap in skill between Aaron Rodgers and Christian Ponder makes the Grand Canyon look like a sinkhole,” I couldn’t agree less with this assertion that Jennings has declined in skill. When Matt Cassel took over as the Vikings’ starter in Week 13 Jennings accounted for 47 percent of his 2013 receptions, 45 percent of his 2013 yards, and 50 percent of his 2013 touchdowns in 31 percent (5) of his games. Jennings was the No.16 fantasy receiver during that span with Cassel. Add Norv Turner to the mix and I’m sold that, as long as Cassel or Teddy Bridgewater are the quarterbacks, Jennings will outplay his WR56 status on this list in 2014. Expect high-end WR3 production, at worst.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Michael Floyd, Ari
Sigmund Bloom: It’s hard figure out exactly why Floyd is still falling to the sixth round. He established very good WR3/Flex level production with a stretch WR1 stat lines from week 11-13. He should only grow in his third year, and the Cardinals passing game is going to expand with an improved offensive line. Floyd has the talent to make the leap to at least strong WR2 production, and he has the fearless head coach and gunslinging quarterback to help him hit his ceiling.
Ryan Hester: With the exception of players with game-breaking speed like Antonio Brown and Percy Harvin, leaning towards taller receivers is an intelligent fantasy football strategy. Using a half-PPR scoring system going back three seasons, 24 out of the 36 players to finish as top-12 wide receivers have been 6’2” or taller. Michael Floyd is a 6’3” player entering his third season. Floyd showed nice progress between his first and second seasons and will still be in an offense engineered by the pass-friendly Bruce Arians. With Larry Fitzgerald aging, Floyd will be the team’s best vertical threat, and Arians loves the vertical passing game. Floyd will be a fantasy WR2 this season and would sniff WR1 range if not for his place in the defensive-minded NFC West.
Andy Hicks: Michael Floyd looks primed to move up a level this year. His improvement in the 2nd half of 2013 signalled he could be a value pick in fantasy drafts this year. With the Cardinals allowing Andre Roberts to leave and replacing him with players of lesser calibre, the signal is clear that they expect Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd to be the dominant receivers. Floyd crept over 1000 yards last year, but his touchdown and yardage games showed his progression towards becoming a WR1 in fantasy football as the year wore on.
Alex Miglio: The fantasy realm is abuzz with hope for Michael Floyd. The third-year wide receiver is seemingly headed to a breakout season with the Cardinals, finally cashing in on that first-round potential. If that is true, Floyd is being undervalued. The third-year receiver is being talked up by quarterback Carson Palmer this offseason, a good sign for his fantasy prospects. An even better sign was his 1,000-yard 2013 campaign, one that would have put him in the top 10 fantasy scorers at his position if he had gotten into the end zone a few more times.
Mike Wallace, Mia
Joe Bryant: Mike Wallace sank more than a few fantasy teams in 2013. In reality, expectations were way too high for a WR new to a system. (as they usually are). Ryan Tannehill will be better this year and Wallace has another year under his belt in Miami. Most importantly, new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor will add some imagination to the Dolphins offense with creative matchups and formations. Wallace even saw time at the OTAs lining up in the backfield. Bottom line is Wallace should be in better positions to take advantage of his speed and physical advantages.
Jeff Haseley: I expect Miami's offense to improve this year, especially under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. I see Wallace as a key piece of the Dolphins passing game and an excellent choice as a WR3 this year. I am on board with Ryan Tannehill growing and improving as a quarterback, which also adds to my interest. Wallace had 73-930-5 last year and the Dolphins offense, including their offensive line, should be much better in 2014.
Steve Holloway: Mike Wallace did not have the success that was expected after he signed a five-year $60 Million contract with the Dolphins last spring. There were plentiful reasons for his lack of production. Tannehill was only in his second year in the league and is still learning to play quarterback after being a wide receiver for a portion of his collegiate career. Tannehill was sacked a league high 58 times and rarely had time to throw deep, one of Wallace’s specialties. Even with these significant issues last year, Wallace finished as WR26 in ppr scoring. The Dolphins’ offensive line should be better and both Wallace and Tannehill should be improved and more acclimated to each other. Wallace went over 1,000 yards receiving in two of his four seasons in Pittsburgh and he may very well top that mark again this year. He scored a career low 5 TDs a year ago and should easily score more in 2014.
Jeff Pasquino: Mike Wallace had a less than stellar first year in Miami, where he was expected by the Dolphins to elevate their passing game and become a dominant lead wide receiver. Wallace disappointed many fans and fantasy owners alike who expected better than his 73-930-5 production in 2013. That has led to more pessimism amongst everyone and pushed Wallace all the way down to the WR35-40 range, which now makes him a solid value for this season. Even in a bad year, Wallace was still a Top 25 producer for the Dolphins in 2013. This season Wallace and quarterback Ryan Tannehill are more aligned, and new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor is looking to move Wallace all over the field to better utilize his talent and create more plays for him. Wallace is a strong WR3 pick with WR2 or better upside.
Roddy White, Atl
Sigmund Bloom: White had been considered highly durable going into 2013, but his attempt to play through a high ankle sprain made him a non-factor until Week 13. From Week 13 on, he wasn’t just his old self, White averaged over eight catches and 100 yards a game during the last five weeks of the season. The return of Julio Jones could take the edge off of those inflated numbers, but the underlying point is that White is exactly who we thought he was when he went in the third round last year, and he should go that high in PPR leagues again this year.
Steve Holloway: Roddy White’s ADP is all about his injuries a season ago. After playing in every game over his first eight seasons, White missed three games in 2013 and played through injuries in several others. He had finished among the top ten WRs for the five previous seasons, but fell off badly last year, catching only 63 passes for 711 yards and 3 TDs. It was the first year since 2007 that he failed to post over 1,150 yards receiving and 6 TDs. The Falcons still have most offensive players returning, except a void with the retirement of Tony Gonzalez. White’s targets, averaging over 170 from 2009 through 2012, will bounce back in a big way this year. Matt Ryan has passed for over 4,000 yards in each of the past three seasons and should do so again this year. White was beginning to get healthy down the stretch and caught 43 of his 63 passes in the final five games. Comeback player of the year is a possibility for White in 2014.
Jeff Tefertiller: Coming off an injury-filled season, Roddy White provides value in the fifth round of fantasy drafts. The Falcons offense will be healthy and poised to put up big points once again. White is a proven performer, able to finish as a fantasy WR1 for the season.
Matt Waldman: If you read my weekly Falcons report for Upgrades-Downgrades during the season then you know that White—not Julio Jones—was the biggest loss in Atlanta passing game last year. Don’t get me wrong Jones is a more physically talented athlete and capable of huge games, but White is a far better route runner and Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense leans on White to deliver precision plays off short drops, play action, and tight coverage on timing routes that Jones does not do. White keeps the chains moving and his high ankle sprain early in the year derailed this offense as much if not more than any player the team lost in 2013. White is a year older at 32 and probably a little slower, but he’s still a precision player with excellent hands. Before the injury he’s had five consecutive years of top-10 fantasy WR production. No.22 on this list is too conservative—I think he rebounds to the top-15.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Justin Hunter, Ten
Ryan Hester: Hunter supports my general strategy of selecting big receivers. In order to be major fantasy contributors, players under 6’0” at the position generally must possess elite speed and route-running skills or play in an offense quarterbacked by one of the league’s best (a la Wes Welker throughout his career). Those players are few and far between. So to find fantasy value at receiver, it’s wise to look at the taller players who are more likely to make the long gains on the perimeter of the field and out-leap shorter defenders in endzone situations. These players get high-value targets and make high-value catches. At 6’4”, Hunter showed flashes last season of a player who can dominate for fantasy owners. He averaged 19.7 yards per catch and caught four touchdowns on just 18 receptions with a quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick) whose skills didn’t align with his. With Jake Locker back, some bolder throws can be made, and Hunter will surprise.
Andy Hicks: Every year there are receivers who make a tremendous leap from their rookie years into their 2nd. Alshon Jeffery from last year is a classic example. I expect Justin Hunter to if not make that leap, at least look like he is getting close. He has game breaking ability and the Titans lack a receiver of his potential. With continued development in training camp his current ADP in the 12th round will be laughable and his incredibly high upside make him an almost risk free investment.
Bob Magaw: Titans wide receiver coach Shawn Jefferson used the tough love approach last year, but recently stated Hunter has the kind of talent to elevate the team to the playoffs. A former track star in the jump events, he has bulked up by adding 15 lbs. in the off-season. While not as polished or with their kind of ceiling, Hunter offers a Randy Moss, A.J. Green-LIKE combination of length, speed, hops, elite body control and finishing ability to get past, jump over and take the ball away from DBs (if he could have maintained his near 20 yards per reception average with enough catches to qualify, he would have finished among the league leaders). Huge upside if he gets the opportunity and competent QB play from a healthy Jake Locker.
James Jones, Oak
David Dodds: Someone has to end up being the WR1 in Oakland and my money is on James Jones filling that spot. The Raiders play in the high octane (and little defense) AFC West so Oakland's WR1 could have nice stats. At his current ADP, he represents a great shot to significantly out-perform his ADP.
Kyle Wachtel: Matt Schaub should add some competence to the passing game at the very least and being able to draft a team's #1 wide receiver in the 12th round would be a terrific value.
Jason Wood: James Jones isn’t a stud. In seven seasons, he’s never caught 70 passes or 900 yards. He’s only finished as a top 36 fantasy receiver once (in 2012 when he caught an astounding 14 touchdowns). So why is he undervalued? Because his current ADP (WR55) puts him among players that will barely be worth rostering in some leagues. Jones has as good a chance as any WR on the Raiders roster to earn a starting role, and Matt Schaub is the type of quarterback that will trust a big receiver in the red zone to win jump balls.
Emmanuel Sanders, Den
Jeff Haseley: I will have Sanders on many of my teams this year as long as he continues to be a good value. Enter him as your WR3 and reap the benefits. He's in a great spot in Denver's offense and should see plenty of targets and scoring chances. Three wide receivers had 10 touchdowns or more last year and Sanders is replacing one of them (Eric Decker). If I had to choose one player who would definitely outperform his ADP it's Sanders.
Bob Henry: Going off the board as WR33, Sanders joins a Peyton Manning led offense as a starting receiver with double digit TD potential and strong WR2 upside. Sanders has impressed throughout OTAs and early reports have the Broncos ready to utilize his talents in a variety of creative ways. If Sanders remains healthy, it’s hard to envision a worst case scenario where he doesn’t live up to a WR3 billing and current ADP. You simply can’t go wrong. Of course, by the time you get around to drafting in July/August I fully expect his ADP to steadily rise meaning you’ll have to take him a couple of rounds before where he’s being slated now. Stated another way, I would much rather wait a couple of rounds later to select Sanders than grab Wes Welker with an ADP of WR18 as my WR2.
Jeff Pasquino: Emmanuel Sanders rolled the dice on free agency and hit the jackpot with his new home in Denver. Peyton Manning needs a replacement for the departed Eric Decker (Jets), and what better passing offense could you ask for if you are Sanders? Talk about a win-win as Peyton Manning gets more speed with Sanders and Sanders gets more targets and a far superior offense and quarterback. It is hard to imagine Sanders as your WR4, but that is what the ADP is screaming – which is yelling value pick to me.
Terrance Williams, Dal
Jeff Haseley: The Cowboys figure to be a strong passing team and Williams is in position to benefit. His emergence last year made Miles Austin expendable. Playing opposite Dez Bryant should yield plenty of single coverage and therefore wide open targets down field. At WR35, Williams is being drafted near the end of the 8th round in 12 team redraft leagues as of mid-June. Williams is an up and coming receiver on a strong passing offense that won't be double covered. That's a perfect recipe for success. I highly recommend getting on board this train, before the window of value closes.
Ryan Hester: Between their porous defense that should put them in multiple shootouts and an offense being coordinated by Scott Linehan, Dallas could lead the NFL in pass attempts this season. Williams will assume the starting receiver role opposite Dez Bryant, who should see much of the focus of opposing defenses. Jason Witten is also aging, which should incentivize the team to ensure that Williams is given every opportunity to make a “leap.” By volume of team pass attempts alone, Williams could catch in excess of 80 passes. He had five games with at least four receptions last season as a rookie who only started eight times.
Jeff Pasquino: This time last year, Miles Austin was the second starting wideout for Dallas. How things change. Now Austin is gone and trying to recover his career in Cleveland while former rookie Terrance Williams steps up and into the starting role opposite of Dez Bryant. Williams posted an extremely respectable 44-736-5 last season on just 74 targets, a number that should approach double digits this season. Williams has lots of upside with defenses focusing on Bryant and tight end Jason Witten.
Kendall Wright, Ten
James Brimacombe: Wright has shown in two straight seasons that he can be a force in PPR leagues as he has caught 64, and 94 catches in each season. The remarkable part is that he doesn’t have the most talented QB’s throwing him the ball and that in itself is one of the big reasons for his lack of touchdowns with only securing 6 total in 31 career games. Wright might not have the high ceiling as a lot of other WR’s but if Tennessee can ever find a reliable and healthy QB to throw him the ball the touchdowns could increase and that in itself could propel him into WR2 range.
Cian Fahey: Kendall Wright is a phenomenal talent at the receiver position who is entering his third season in the NFL. Wright enjoyed a breakout season last year, but his production was hampered by the team's offense and Ryan Fitzpatrick's presence as the starter. Wright finished last year with 94 receptions for 1,079 yards and just two touchdowns. He only had two redzone targets, both of which he caught, and even though his numbers weren't spectacular with Locker, they should be a lot better over a 16 game season if he can stay healthy. Wright is the type of receiver that new head coach Ken Whisenhunt should focus his passing attack around.
Jason Wood: If I had confidence in quarterback Jake Locker, I might be pounding the table on Wright. Instead I’m pointing out that he deserves more credit than he’s getting on draft day even if the quarterback situation is less than ideal. Wright is a PPR specialist, who ranked 20th last year in spite of scoring only 2 touchdowns. Veteran fantasy owners understand that TD production is the most volatile component of fantasy scoring, and Wright is a good bet to deliver at least 5-6 touchdowns. Considering new head coach Ken Whisenhunt is a far superior offensive mind to the 2013 coaches, Wright’s stock continues to look higher.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Tavon Austin, StL
Adam Harstad: Tavon was quietly putting together a remarkable season-ending hot stretch before he got injured last season. As a top-10 draft pick, St. Louis will be very invested in giving Tavon every opportunity to show he was worth it. Like Percy Harvin, Austin can supplement unexciting receiving numbers with additional rushing yardage.
Andy Hicks: Tavon Austin has a lower ADP than he did in his rookie year. Considering the steep learning curve for wide receivers, especially one of Austin’s size that is crazy. The coaching staff took a long time to figure out the best way to use Austin, but once they did in his final 4 games of the season he produced 4 electrifying plays with 3 resulting in lengthy touchdowns. With even more time to scheme to use him best and improvement across the board on the Rams offense, expect Austin to lack quality touches, but produce quality with the touches he does have. He will be a risky week to week proposition, but in best ball leagues or those who start 3 WR’s or a flex he is an excellent investment.
Kelvin Benjamin, Car
Bob Henry: It’s easy to scoff at Benjamin’s inconsistent career at Florida State or the draft community knocking him for not living up to his potential thus far despite his tremendous size. Despite all that, I’m bullish. I was impressed with what I saw of Benjamin last year in big games. His size and skills make him an excellent player to pair with Cam Newton. Even if he only catches 45 passes, it shouldsurprise no one if he hauls in 8+ TDs. As a WR4/WR5 on draft day, Benjamin could emerge immediately as a viable WR3 in non-PPR formats. Outside of TE Greg Olsen, he’s the only game in town outside of veteran Jerricho Cotchery. I’m buying Benjamin at his current ADP. While I don’t believe he has as much upside as someone like Reuben Randle with similar ADP, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t finish the season among the top 40 WR.
Jeff Tefertiller: Rookie wide receivers are usually players to avoid. However, Kelvin Benjamin is the only viable receiver in Carolina this year. Even better, the price tag is just an eleventh round pick. Benjamin is a big, physical pass catcher who could be a flex option from week one. He will offer value as a red-zone threat at the minimum.
Dwayne Bowe, KC
Sigmund Bloom: Bowe was bitterly disappointing for most of 2013, but as the season went on, he resembled his old self a little more each week. Alex Smith was a timid downfield passer at first with the Chiefs, but he too came out of his shell later in the season. Bowe should at worst be a low-end WR2 as the clear #1 downfield option for Kansas City, but a return to strong WR2 with occasional WR1 production is certainly possible. Either way, you’ll get a core WR producer in the 8th/9th round, which is like stealing in PPR leagues.
Heath Cummings: Bowe's 2013 struggles have been well-chronicled but one of the biggest factors for that disappointment shouldn't be an issue in 2014. The Chiefs defense dominated a rag-tag group of quarterbacks in the first nine weeks, limiting Bowe's usage. In 2014 the Chiefs schedule gets more difficult and their defense looks less impressive. Expect numbers more like Bowe had in the second half of last year which would make him a steal at his current draft position.
Brandin Cooks, NO
Heath Cummings: Cooks doesn't have the best upside in this rookie class but he has a great chance to be the best in 2014. Cooks' speed on turf will play well catching pinpoint passes from Drew Brees. Brees lost a couple of his favorite short route targets in the offseason and Cooks has the skillset to fill that void. He's much more valuable in PPR leagues They're completely different players but Cooks has the skills and situation to challenge Keenan Allen's 2013 season. Even if he falls short he should be a solid WR3 in PPR leagues.
Bob Henry: You have to love the fit for Cooks and his skill set in an offense like the Saints, especially with the departure of Darren Sproles. Cooks speed, quickness and ability change direction in an instant make him a heavy favorite to hit the ground running in a high volume offense with an elite quarterback and a role that ideally suits him. Detractors might point to Cooks being the fourth target at best behind Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas or even Kevin Stills, but I believe that he could quickly become more than that. It’s always hard to predict what you might get out of rookie receivers, but in a Drew Brees-led offense with a wide open opportunity for Cooks to fill the void of Sproles and/or Lance Moore, I project him for a minimum of 50 passes and 4-to-5 TDs. Let the rookie hype begin.
T.Y. Hilton, Ind
Heath Cummings: Hilton should be a shoe-in to be the most talked about "third year breakout" candidate this summer. Even if you don't believe in that theory, there's good reason to believe he's a great value where he's being selected. His main threats for targets are Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks. Wayne is turning 36 this season and Nicks has looked like a 40 year-old man since 2012. Hilton is the young emerging threat in this offense and he's paired up with one of the best young quarterbacks in the game. His dismantling of Kansas City in the playoffs should have put fantasy owners on notice.
Mark Wimer: T.Y. Hilton should crush his current draft position of 23rd wide receiver off the board. He is a developing superstar receiver for a developing superstar quarterback. What's not to like here? I especially see Hilton ascending to top-dog in Indianapolis with Reggie Wayne at 35 years old and coming off a torn ACL/torn meniscus in late-October of 2013. Hilton should vie for a finish among the top-12 fantasy wide receivers in the NFL.
Hakeem Nicks, Ind
Steve Holloway: Count me among the rapidly reducing pool expecting a resurgent year for Hakeem Nicks. Despite finishing among the top twelve wide receivers in 2010 and 2011, he was only able to sign a one-year prove it type contract this season for $3.98 Million. The good news is he landed on the Colts and will be catching passes from Andrew Luck. The bad news is his play has been less than inspiring for the last two seasons as he caught an average of only 55 passes for 794 yards and only 3 total TDs. In addition, he has missed games in every year of his five year career and appeared to play without much effort or enthusiasm last year. For all these reasons, his ADP has dropped precipitously and he definitely is playing for his NFL future, even more than a year ago as he played out his rookie contract.
Matt Waldman: Nicks’ medical dossier since his college days is pretty thick. It includes a fractured right foot that required surgery; a surgically repaired broken toe; three foot sprains; two ankle sprains; and last year a groin strain and a knee issue. The good news is that he played 15 games last year and averaged 16 yards per catch. However, he didn’t score a single touchdown. If you believe this is the start of a downward spiral for the 26-year old Nicks, you’re not going to touch him. Me? I see a player whose injury reports are nagging, but aren’t horrific. I see a receiver capable of top-10 production paired with a more skilled quarterback than Eli Manning. And I see a fine fantasy value as the 43rd receiver on this value list.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Min
Jeff Haseley: Cordarrelle Patterson's ADP is creeping higher and higher, but I believe he will be one of the better receivers in the league as he continues to grow and develop. There is so much room for improvement despite his arrival as a rookie last year. He has a nose for the end zone and has shown that he can be a weapon as a receiver, rusher or returner. If there's one receiver that we'll all be talking about in week six, it's Patterson.
Bob Magaw: Through the first 11 games of a rookie year that was a tale of two seasons, Patterson had a modest, nondescript 1 combined rushing/receiving TD (he also had 2 kick return TDs). In an incendiary last five game scoring outburst, he had 6 combined rushing/receiving TDs, which prorates to mind boggling upside over a full season if he starts the 2014 season like he left off in 2013. Patterson has run a freakish sub-10.5 100 m. at 6’2”, 220 lbs., and has similar open field moves to Tavon Austin, but is about 6” taller and 40 lbs. heavier. New OC Norv Turner conjured up one of the most productive seasons at his position in league history from raw WR Josh Gordon in 2013, and Patterson resembles his physical tools, skill set and game far more than Greg Jennings. Gordon was a second year player and not as raw a WR, but Patterson might be faster and is more elusive in the open field.
Reuben Randle, NYG
Bob Henry: The best thing working in Randle’s (and your) favor on draft day is the disappointment that comes from overrating him last year. Randle no longer has the mental burden of Kevin Gilbride’s option routes. In Ben McAdoo’s West Coast-based offense, Randle will have to think less and get back to doing what he does best – use his 6’ 3” frame to get open and make plays downfield and in the red zone where I expect him to emerge as Peyton Manning’s top threat in the red zone. With an ADP in the WR50s, he’s all upside on draft day. I currently have him projected for 860 yards and 7 TDs, making him a mid-range WR2 in terms of projected value and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him finish among the top 20.
Kyle Wachtel: Eyeing his biggest opportunity yet, Randle has the potential to reach the ceiling that Hakeem Nicks could not. He also has at least three inches in height on the team's other top receivers, presenting himself as the best red-zone threat.
Reggie Wayne, Ind
Jeff Pasquino: Reggie Wayne is poised for a nice comeback after tearing his ACL last year. Wayne is already on the comeback trail and ready for practice, with the Colts expecting him to start opposite T.Y. Hilton and compliment Hakeem Nicks. Andrew Luck and Indianapolis have a very favorable schedule against Jacksonville and Tennessee twice each plus all of the NFC East. Wayne finished as a Top 15 wide receiver in 2012, and with his ADP far lower in the WR3 category, he is a huge value play.
Jeff Tefertiller: Yes, Reggie Wayne is past his prime. Yes, he is coming off a major knee injury. However, Wayne is expected to be healthy for training camp and is a steal at the end of the eighth round. Andrew Luck is back under center. He will be looking for his favorite receiver early and often. Wayne looks like a cheap WR3 who could finish as a fantasy WR2.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Keenan Allen, SD
James Brimacombe: The connection between Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen was something special last season, and the sky is the limit for Allen entering year 2. For a rookie WR to put up numbers of 71/1046/8 in just 15 games it is hard not to buy into the hype of what he can do in his sophomore season in the league. Allen is a strong WR1 play in all formats and is an intriguing 2nd round dynasty prospect. Lots to like about Allen's game and the upside going forward is through the roof. Even after his incredible rookie season, Allen's ADP is still not up to par with where it should be. It is a great time to try to get Allen on your team before he gets elected to that elite tier of WR's.
Danny Amendola, NE
Sigmund Bloom: Amendola’s injury history makes him seem radioactive for fantasy, but he is fully healthy again, and even though it’s just OTAs, he’s reminding some of the impressive natural chamistry he and Tom Brady displayed before he got hurt last year. Amendola should at least be a solid PPR play in any week that he is healthy, with a chance to switch fantasy fates with Julian Edelman if the oft-injured Edelman is the fragile this year, and Amendola stays off of the injury list. at a 10th round price, Amendola’s high risk factors are lot more tolerable in exchange for his underestimated reward.
Odell Beckham, Jr, NYG
Cian Fahey: Sammy Watkins is clearly the most exciting rookie wide receiver this season, while Mike Evans will be attractive because of his size and fit in the Buccaneers offense. However, the most pro-ready receiver is the New York Giants Odell Beckham, Jr. Beckham should catch a lot of passes because he projects to be the most reliable option for Eli Manning early on. Victor Cruz is a very talented receiver, but he has never been the most reliable for Manning, while Reuben Randle's inconsistency from last season is worrying. Changing the offensive approach in New York should allow Manning to throw more short, intermediate routes where Beckham will be a nightmare for the defense to cover.
Michael Crabtree, SF
Mark Wimer: Colin Kaepernick is developing into a top-flight NFL quarterback, and Michael Crabtree is his go-to guy at wide receiver. If Crabtree plays 16 games this year, he'll be one of the top-ten wide receivers in the land, and may threaten for a top-five finish. He should easily eclipse his current draft position of #17 wide receiver drafted.
Marques Colston, NO
Kyle Wachtel: A perennial value pick, Colston's game is not dependent on speed, which allows him to excel as his athleticism may fade. He remains the #2 option behind Jimmy Graham and is poised for his fifth consecutive 70-900-5 season, which is his floor.
Eric Decker, NYJ
Mark Wimer: Eric Decker is the only legitimate target at wide receiver for the Jets - he will have an astounding number of passes aimed his way during 2014. This is simply a matter of abundant opportunity that will lead to Decker scoring well in the fantasy realm. He will outplay his current draft rank of 29th wide receiver off the board.
Julian Edelman, NE
Jason Wood: The pain of losing Wes Welker was supposed to be offset by the addition of Danny Amendola, but it was long-time backup Julian Edelman who stepped into the role. Edelman caught 105 passes for 1,056 yards and 6 touchdowns (a carbon copy of what Welker used to do as a Patriot). It seems fantasy owners are reluctant to buy into Edelman’s 2013 season fully; that would be a mistake. His numbers weren’t fluky; they were a function of increased playing time. He’s always run crisp routes, and has always had good hands. Now he has a clearly defined role in Tom Brady’s route tree. He’s a surefire fantasy WR2 in PPR leagues.
Mike Evans, TB
James Brimacombe: There is a lot to like about Mike Evans with his towering size and sure hands on the field. He is extremely young and will be only 21 when the season starts, making him an excellent investment in dynasty leagues. When looking back on this year’s draft the question is always going to be, who was the better WR, Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans? For me it is Mike Evans because of his ability to make plays all over the field and his surprisingly quick speed. I think consistency is a big part of his game as well and I don't envision too many games where Evans doesn't put up decent numbers on the stat sheet. He also landed in a nice spot in Tampa Bay, with Vincent Jackson starting opposite of him and will likely be taking some of the pressure off of Evans initially and he should see his share of single coverage.
Brian Hartline, Mia
David Dodds: He quietly amasses a lot of targets and receptions yet gets little to no respect in fantasy drafts. He is annually on this list with this year no exception. The distraction of Martin/Cognito is in the rear view mirror. Brian will likely eventually be passed on the depth chart by Jarvis Landry, but he could keep you in your league early before better waiver options become available.
Vincent Jackson, TB
Mark Wimer: I think Josh McCown will lean heavily on the veteran Vincent Jackson this year - a wealth of opportunities should spell high production from the Buccaneers' top receiver, just as it did for Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery during 2013 (but here Jackson is the clear #1 wide receiver with rookie Mike Evans slated to start across from Jackson). Jackson should significantly outplay his current draft position.
Andre Johnson, Hou
Joe Bryant: The negative hysteria surrounding Andre Johnson is reaching peak levels and smart fantasy owners with a tolerance for risk may benefit. Most of the panic seems to be over new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. I get it, Fitzpatrick isn't Peyton Manning. But we forget that Andre Johnson's been an elite level WR for years. With Matt Schaub under center. Johnson is one of those rare receivers who can dramatically elevate their quarterback. His size and wingspan create huge opportunities that you can bet a QB new to the system like Fitzpatrick will lean on.
Calvin Johnson, Det
Adam Harstad: Can a guy being drafted in the top half of the first round still be undervalued? He can if he’s Calvin Johnson. The surest thing we’ve seen at the WR position since Jerry Rice was in his prime, Calvin carries all of the upside with much less of the risk than some of the RBs being taken ahead of him in PPR leagues.
Marvin Jones, Cin
Matt Waldman: Jones was the No.21 fantasy receiver last year in an offense where Jay Gruden couldn’t seem to make up his mind on how to use the second-year receiver at various points of the year. Gruden is gone, Hue Jackson is the replacement, and the new offensive coordinator has declared Jones his No.2 on the depth chart; no more games with Jones and Mohamed Sanu. While the Bengals intend to run the ball more, it doesn’t mean the No.2 receiver in the Cincinnati offense should be listed as the No.46 fantasy receiver. It took Gruden and the offense six weeks to figure out that Jones should earn more than a handful of targets per game. Even if he’s no better than a fantasy WR3, he’s a value for the 10th round. Consider him a low-floor option with a higher ceiling than credited.
Sammy Watkins, Buf
Bob Magaw: Watkins has been called the best WR prospect since A.J. Green and Julio Jones in 2011 (and they were in turn the best since Calvin Johnson in the past decade). He hit the ground running arguably faster than any other player at his position in collegiate history (only WR to be AP first team All-American as a true Freshman), and has the transcendent talent to transition quickly to the next level. While Watkins doesn’t have length of Green and Jones, he plays a lot bigger than his size, turning into a RB once the ball is in his hands, with hair-on-fire intensity. The phrase, “he can score from anywhere on the field” has become a cliche, but is applicable to the Clemson star (the only player in the nation in 2013, or in school history with two 90+ yard receiving TDs). His rare combination of freakish acceleration, acrobatic body control, sticky hands and tackle breaking physicality make him a legit threat to take it to the house on any play. Watkins isn’t a typical rookie, so don’t expect typical rookie numbers.
Wes Welker, Den
Heath Cummings: The only way I can see Welker not finishing as a top 12 PPR receiver is if he misses significant time due to injury. Emmanuel Sanders is not an adequate replacement for Eric Decker and Cody Latimer isn't going to be trusted to contribute early in the year. This leads me to believe that Welker is a lock for 90+ catches in 2014 if he can stay healthy. He did miss 3 games last year but it was the first time since 2009 that he'd missed more than one game in a season. The Broncos have to see the window closing as Manning ages and that means they should lean heavily on their veteran receiver.