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A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Players with 4 Votes
Rob Gronkowski, NE
Sigmund Bloom: It might feel weird to spend a second round pick on a player who was still sporting a limp after ACL surgery less than a year ago, but Gronkowski is one of those players who has the ability to win a week for you almost on his own. His offseason was more tumultuous last year and he was good old Gronk within three weeks of his return to the field - which will likely happen earlier this year than it did last year. Without a freak hit vs. Cleveland, he was on his way to helping his owners win leagues. His game isn’t predicated on explosion or sudden quicks, so Gronk’s power should be intact.
Steve Buzzard: Gronkowski is the type of player that will win you leagues. Yes he will probably miss some games due to injury. But when he is playing there are only a handful of players that can match the dominance that he displays. After not playing for the first six games last year he immediately came back and scored a TD or had 100 yards in 5 of the 6 games that he finished. His ADP is starting to slide back down due to some injury talks but if he is just healthy for the fantasy playoffs he will win his team some championships and will be well worth the risk and the headaches.
Ryan Hester: Despite his already lofty draft position, Gronkowski can be a value. His ADP could slide based on recent news that he’s just 50-50 for Week 1. The idea of him missing a game or two shouldn’t scare potential suitors. It should be a sign of opportunity. If Gronkowski plays 12 games at the level we know he can, him plus the average replacement you used in the games he missed are still probably the second-best tight end. It’s a weekly game, and Gronkowski is a game-changer whenever he’s on the field.
Kyle Wachtel: You can look at stats or you can look at film and there's no argument that Gronkowski is in his own tier at the tight end position. That includes Jimmy Graham. Optimism is flowing in Foxborough with all signs are pointing to a Week 1 return. He's a first round talent with an early third round price tag.
Greg Olsen, Car
Andy Hicks: Greg Olsen is the only receiver returning to the Panthers from last year and will be Cam Newton’s most valuable receiver this year. The rookie Kelvin Benjamin is attracting the headlines, but it is Olsen that will be impressing in the box score. He should post career highs in all categories and is the best of the rest as far as Tight Ends go this year if you cannot get one of the big guns.
Stephen Holloway: Greg Olsen has been a consistent producer over his seven-year NFL career and his receptions and yardage have climbed in each of his three seasons in Carolina. The past two years, he has finished as TE6 and TE8, while averaging only 107 targets per year. Career high stats are highly probable for Olsen in 2014 as he should be the primary target for Cam Newton. All of Carolina’s top three wide receivers from 2013 are gone. Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant, and rookie Kelvin Benjamin are the replacements. Is there any reason that Olsen would not be the most targeted Panther by far?
Jeff Pasquino: Quick, name a wide receiver on the roster for the Panthers that caught a pass last season from Cam Newton. Sorry, that was a trick question, as the answer is no one. That makes Greg Olsen the best veteran target in the Carolina passing game this year, and I would not be surprised if Olsen bests his gaudy 73-816-6 stat line from 2013. Olsen has seen over 100 targets the past two years and I would bank on this being the third one in a row.
Jason Wood: Olsen has finished TE6 and TE8 in the last two seasons, is in his prime, and has a perfect situation to deliver strong fantasy value. Cam Newton’s entire WR corps has turned over, there are no proven wide receivers that will absolutely demand 120+ targets, and Olsen is a sure-handed safety blanket that’s earned Newton’s trust. Olsen is safer than the TEs in his tier, and yet has as much upside as any of them.
Jordan Reed, Was
Adam Harstad: Through his first 8 games, Jordan Reed was having the best fantasy season by a rookie tight end since Hall of Famer Mike Ditka. That’s not an exaggeration- Reed was just the fourth rookie TE in history to top 4 receptions per game, and his 5.5 average was by far the gold standard. Despite a slow start to the season as he came off the bench, through 8 games Reed was on pace for 88 receptions, 1010 yards, and 6 TDs- virtually identical to Keenan Allen’s 71/1046/8 stat line, but at a position where such production is much, much rarer.
Jeff Haseley: Jordan Reed is ready for a breakout and he's in a perfect situation in Washington with offensive-minded Jay Gruden calling the shots. It would not surprise me to see him finish in the Top 5 this year. Reed should be the primary receiving option at tight end for Gruden, compared to the combination of Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham in Cincinnati. The end result could be 60+ receptions and well over 700 yards receiving.
Ryan Hester: Washington’s offense has the potential to be a machine this season. With Robert Griffin III back to full health, two great deep ball receivers in the mix, and a solid running game, this team has options everywhere. The part of the field left unoccupied by those players previously mentioned is the middle. Reed has the athleticism to strike on all levels. He can be a seam route master with the attention that will be paid to Washington’s receivers outside. Last year’s concussions are a concern, but Reed’s upside is huge.
Bob Magaw: Reed was on his way to easily the best season among TEs from the class of 2013 before his rookie campaign was cut short by a concussion severe enough to cause him to miss the last six games, with symptoms that lingered into the off-season. The former Florida multi-position athlete (QB, RB, WR and TE) should find himself even more open between the hashes with former Eagle speed merchant DeSean Jackson lined up across from Pierre Garcon on the outside, and with a rejuvenated Robert Griffin III delivering the ball. If he can avoid a neurological setback, Reed has special RAC skills for a TE, among the best in the game. New OC Sean McVay was the TE coach last year, is very cognizant of his talent, and reportedly looking forward to finding more ways to get the ball in his hands.
Kyle Rudolph, Min
Jeff Haseley: The Vikings are primed for an offensive upgrade with the presence of Norv Turner at OC. Norv has a history of success with his tight ends, which should be no different with Rudolph. We already know he'll be a threat in the red zone, but Norv will get him involved between the 20's as well. It all points to increased production from the young tight end.
Stephen Holloway: Kyle Rudolph was drafted in the 2nd round by Minnesota in 2011. His numbers have been modest thus far in his career, but he has improved every season. He missed the final half of the season last year with a foot injury, but returns healthy for 2014. The big change in Minnesota is their new offensive coordinator, Norv Turner. They will likely also have a new quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, who they traded back into the first round to draft. Rookie quarterbacks and Norv Turner both rely heavily on tight ends. Rudolph should get plentiful opportunities to make plays and he already has scored 15 TDs on only 109 career receptions.
Ari Ingel: While it seems as if he has been in the league forever, Rudolph is just 24 years old and has been held back by poor offensive scheme and horrible QB play. Fortunately this season, Norv Turner takes over as the teams Offensive Coordinator and brings to the Vikings his TE friendly scheme that helped Jordan Cameron and Antonio Gates thrive. He will also finally have a capable quarterback throwing him the ball in either Matt Cassel or Teddy Bridgewater. While Rudolph doesn’t have elite speed, he runs well, has a monster frame, possesses a quick first step, excellent hands and the body control to win jump balls. For those that miss out or pass up on the elite three or four guys, he is an excellent cheap upside pick. Minnesota also just extended him to the tune of five-years and $36.5 million, so they clearly believe in his talent.
Bob Magaw: Rudolph missed the last half of the 2013 season, but until that time was pacing as a low-end TE1 or high-end TE2. That wasn’t a fluke, as the hulking former TE U (Notre Dame) star also had a near top 10 season in 2012, his second year, on the strength of 9 receiving TDs. Opposing defenses could be heavily distracted by serial Pro Bowl RB Adrian Peterson and a pair of talented outside threats, former Green Bay Pro Bowl WR Greg Jennings and emerging star Cordarrelle Patterson. New OC Norv Turner oversaw TE Antonio Gates for over a half decade in San Diego, before turning Cleveland TE Jordan Cameron into a star (stats went from 20-226-1 in 2012 to 80-917-7 in 2013). The Vikings were confident enough in Rudolph to pay him like one of the top TEs in the league, which speaks to intended usage. He has lost weight, flashed improved quickness, played well in the pre-season and appears primed for a career year.
Player with 3 Votes
Zach Ertz, Phi
James Brimacombe: There is a lot to like about Ertz heading into his sophomore season with the Eagles. He has a QB in Nick Foles that trust him and he plays in an offense that favors his abilities and that will find ways to get him involved. The Eagles receiver situation is up in the air and to pick a top WR in the offense is very hard to do. The well balanced passing offense could benefit Ertz more than the rest of the receiving options in Philadelphia and he has a legitimate shot at leading the team in receptions.
Andy Hicks: Zach Ertz is going to be a guy that is very valuable in future years to the Philadelphia Eagles and this is the year he will endear himself to fantasy owners. The departure of DeSean Jackson is a big hole to fill and none of the other receivers are going to measure up. The offense will be retooled to take in what they have and that means more of Ertz than last year. He has been outstanding in the off and pre season and will be a defensive matchup nightmare.
Stephen Holloway: The Eagles offense commandeered by Chip Kelly drew a lot of attention a year ago, primarily related to the pace. It was very effective as the Eagles rushing yardage increased by about 25% and their passing yardage also rose. The passing game was more effective once Nick Foles took over and he returns as the starter this year. Ertz, Kelly’s second round pick in his first draft started off slowly but improved as the year went on. Over the first half of the season, he averaged less than 2 catches and 24 yards per game and did not score a TD. For the second half of the season, that production increased to just over 3 catches and 38 yards per game and he scored 4 TDs. Passing efficiency should be better in year two with Foles at quarterback and Ertz targets should climb.
Players with 2 Votes
Charles Clay, Mia
Heath Cummings: I expect a small improvement from Ryan Tannehill this year and Clay should be a big beneficiary. Clay is a multi-talented player that’s even seen some fullback work on short yardage downs. He’s the third option in the Miami passing attack and the only player other than Brian Hartline to consistently succeed underneath. Clay’s a smart bet to be a low-end reliable TE1 if you decide to wait at tight end.
Adam Harstad: This seems like an awfully low ranking for a guy who had nearly 800 receiving yards and finished 7th at his position in 2014. Clay will be a big part of Miami’s passing game going forward, and if the Dolphins’ offense improves, Clay should be able to become a fixture on top-10 TE lists.
Antonio Gates, SD
Matt Waldman: Malcom Floyd and Vincent Brown could return to the form that made them promising WR2s for the Chargers before injuries struck, but I'm not counting on it. San Diego likes to run and use a high-tempo offense. Gates and Ladarius Green are great schematic fits because of their ability to work the perimeter, the seams, and provide perimeter support as run blockers. Green may take the lead over Gates in yardage, but I won't be surprised if Gates' has similar to greater targets as the underneath option and still posts enough production in the red zone to earn low-end TE1 numbers this year.
Jason Wood: Gates is in the twilight of his career, but he’s being unfairly punished by fantasy owners’ new love affair with Ladarius Green. Gates is healthy and neither he nor the coaches have given any indication that his starting job is in jeopardy. It would be one thing if Gates was on a steady decline in terms of fantasy value, but he was a TOP TEN FANTASY PLAYER LAST YEAR (TE9). Just because Gates is no longer a lock as a top 2 or 3 at the position does not mean he’s lost relevance. At his current price, you can secure a low end TE1 for a fraction of the price.
Dennis Pitta, Bal
Ari Ingel: Pitta is fully healthy after missing most of last season with a brutal hip injury. He also benefits from the addition of a coaching change, now playing in Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak’s TE friendly system, which should see Pitta routinely split out as a wide receiver. Pitta has also has a great bromance with quarterback Joe Flacco, who looks his way early and often when the pressure comes. While TD’s are tough to predict, Pitta should be a no brainer PPR stud that should lead the team in receptions. With an ADP in the 8th round, Pitta is another solid value pick for those who wait at TE.
Jeff Pasquino: First, let’s get the downside out of the way. Dennis Pitta lost all of last year due to a bad injury in the preseason, but that is behind him now. Baltimore is going to be a very tight end friendly passing attack this season with offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak now on the staff. Joe Flacco is already best friends with Pitta and loves to target him whenever he can, so I see a tight end with Top 5 upside that can be had for much cheaper in drafts this year.
Players with 1 Vote
Martellus Bennett, Chi
Stephen Holloway: Martellus Bennett disappointed for four straight years with the Cowboys, averaging only 21 receptions and 211 yards per year. He moved on to the Giants in 2012 and caught 55 passes for 626 yards and scored one more TD (5) in one season with the Giants than he had in four with the Cowboys. That success got him a contract with Chicago and he improved again last season with the Bears, having 65 catches for 759 yards and 5 TDs. With a returning Jay Cutler and Chicago in year two of Trestman’s offense, look for the Bears to improve. Bennett could easily improve his numbers again in 2014.
Jordan Cameron, Cle
Sigmund Bloom: Cameron’s 80/917/7 line last year should be considered his floor for 2013. The Browns QB situation can’t possibly be worst than it was last year, and Cameron should be even better because he is a late bloomer on the football field as a former college basketball player. Cameron has the best red zone skillset on the team and he should be the most targeted receiver in Cleveland this year by a good margin. He will end up closer to Jimmy Graham than Jason Witten.
Ladarius Green, SD
Phil Alexander: Green’s usage in San Diego’s second preseason game was all I needed to push all in. With Antonio Gates active, Green was in the game with the first team offense on eight out of nine snaps. He lined up in the slot three times, and wasn’t asked to pass block once, finishing with two catches for 20 yards. It would appear Mike McCoy and the SD coaching staff are smart enough to realize their most explosive playmaker belongs on the field. Green's per target efficiency last year placed him in Graham/Gronk territory. If he’s used as an every down receiver, which it appears he will be, Green is an 11th round pick that will swing your league championship.
Heath Miller, Pit
Chad Parsons: Heath Miller at TE16 is reason to wait on tight end if missing out on one of the Graham-Gronkowski-Thomas options early. Miller is the best red zone threat for the Steelers and gets the fantasy-friendly 'returning from injury the prior season' discount. Paired with a younger upside play, Heath Miller is a perfect value play.
Julius Thomas
Kyle Wachtel: Manning remains sharp and with Eric Decker gone, Thomas' red zone role can only grow. A near-lock for double digit scores, he's entrenched as the third ranked tight end and the steep drop-off to the proletariat increases his value to a late-second.