A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Rob Gronkowski, NE
Sigmund Bloom: Most of the news coming out about Gronkowski’s recovery is positive, and his injury cocktail to come back from this year is less recent and simpler than last year’s much shakier and escalating offseason of pain. Gronkowski returned to his dominant form before his severe knee injury, which happened on a hit that would have put anyone out. He played in the first 42 consecutive regular season games of his career, so Gronk isn’t as injury prone as some believe. He’s still the the kind of commodity that helps you win titles when he is in your lineup.
Adam Harstad: News out of New England is that Rob Gronkowski is ahead of schedule in his rehab and is already cutting after his offseason ACL surgery. For his career, Gronkowski has consistently outscored even Jimmy Graham when he’s on the field, and could easily justify this draft position even if he only played 12 games.
Chad Parsons: The primary reason for getting any discount on Rob Gronkowski compared to Jimmy Graham is because of his injury history. Any player in the league would have torn their ACL on the hit Gronkowski took last season. As a result, Gronkowski becomes one of the biggest value plays in the early rounds this season. Gronkowski gives a historic weekly advantage to fantasy owners without the top-15 overall cost of Jimmy Graham.
Kyle Wachtel: There is growing optimism for his health and he's a notch above Jimmy Graham when on the field; At their three-year averages, Gronkowski needs only 14 games to match full 16-game season from Graham.
Jason Wood: By the time most leagues draft, Rob Gronkowski’s ADP will be a lot higher. But for now, if you happen to draft this early, taking Gronkowski in the late 3rd, early 4th is about as close to a no brainer as we’ve seen in a long time. As long as Gronkowski is healthy (admittedly a big question mark of late), he remains one of the league’s few matchup nightmares. He can’t be stopped in single coverage and could easily return to the role of Tom Brady’s favorite red zone target. You would be MUCH better off betting on Gronkowski a round later than hoping Julius Thomas’ breakout season is repeatable.
Greg Olsen, Car
David Dodds: Carolina jettisoned virtually every wide receiver on their team this offseason as they go through a youth movement at the position. This puts reliable Greg Olsen front and center as a major contributor for the Cam Newton led offense. Olsen had a career high number of targets (111 in 2013) and I fully expect those numbers to increase.
Cian Fahey: Cam Newton's weapons have been revamped and Greg Olsen is the only familiar piece that remains. Olsen had a career-high in receptions last season and even though the Panthers added two veteran possession receivers, he should be the Panthers' most well-rounded receiving option in 2014. Much like Vernon Davis for the 49ers last season, Olsen can be a primary receiver from the tight end spot. Unlike Davis, Olsen plays for a quarterback who is more likely to target him repeatedly.
Ryan Hester: Much was made of Carolina’s lack of activity at the receiver position this offseason. On a team whose projected starting receivers are a rookie who had mixed reviews as a first-round pick and an average-at-best veteran entering his 11th season, someone is going to have to consistently make plays as a pass-catcher. 2013 was Olsen’s best year in terms of receptions with 73. This season should see him eclipse that mark and perhaps surpass 80 catches. He has Cam Newton’s trust, and the young quarterback will lean on him in 2014.
Steve Holloway: Greg Olsen has been a consistent producer over his seven-year NFL career. His receptions and yardage have climbed in each of his three seasons in Carolina. The past two years, he has finished as TE6 and TE8, while averaging only 107 targets per year. Career high stats are highly probable for Olsen in 2014 as he should be the primary target for Cam Newton. All of Carolina’s top three wide receivers from 2013 are gone. Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant, and rookie Kelvin Benjamin are the replacements. Is there any reason that Olsen would not be the most targeted Panther by far?
Jeff Pasquino: Quick, name a wide receiver on the roster for the Panthers that caught a pass last season from Cam Newton. Sorry, that was a trick question, as the answer is no one. That makes Greg Olsen the best veteran target in the Carolina passing game this year, and I would not be surprised if Olsen bests his gaudy 73-816-6 stat line from 2013. Olsen has seen over 100 targets the past two years and I would bank on this being the third one in a row.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Martellus Bennett, Chi
David Dodds: He had his best season as a pro with career highs in targets, receptions and yards. He managed just 1 TD over his last 8 games, but I expect that to change going forward. I see an ever-increasing redzone role for the big talented TE.
Jeff Haseley: Martellus Bennett flew under the radar last year and finished with a Top 10 finish in his first year in Marc Trestman's offense. He is still flying under the radar and will be on many of my teams this year as long as he continues to be available after ten other tight ends are selected.
Steve Holloway: Martellus Bennett disappointed for four straight years with the Cowboys, averaging only 21 receptions and 211 yards per year. He moved on to the Giants in 2012 and caught 55 passes for 626 yards and scored one more TD (5) in one season with the Giants than he had in four with the Cowboys. That success got him a contract with Chicago and he improved again last season with the Bears, having 65 catches for 759 yards and 5 TDs. With a returning Jay Cutler and Chicago in year two of Trestman’s offense, look for the Bears to improve. Bennett could easily improve his numbers in 2014 and he finished as TE10 a year ago.
Mark Wimer: Martellus Bennett is in a great situation as a trusted target for Jay Cutler, and he has Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery to draw coverage away from Bennett's routes. He'll thrive on short-to-intermediate routes again this year, and everyone will be more comfortable in the Trestman offense this year in the second year of executing plays in this system. I think the Bears' offense as a whole is on an upward trajectory. He should crush his current ADP of 12th fantasy tight end off the board.
Jordan Reed, Was
Heath Cummings: Washington's 2013 campaign was an unmitigated disaster but Reed's rookie campaign was one of the few bright spots before his concussions. Reed averaged 5 receptions and 55 yards per game in his 9 starts. He's certainly an injury risk but has more upside in 2014 than just about anyone being drafted below him. Desean Jackson should help spread the field, opening up the middle for Reed. If he stays healthy this will look like an absolute steal, and that's well worth the 7th round pick that he'll cost you.
Adam Harstad: Through his first 8 games, Jordan Reed was having the best fantasy season by a rookie tight end since Hall of Famer Mike Ditka. That’s not an exaggeration- Reed was just the fourth rookie TE in history to top 4 receptions per game, and his 5.5 average was by far the gold standard. Despite a slow start to the season as he came off the bench, through 8 games Reed was on pace for 88 receptions, 1010 yards, and 6 TDs- virtually identical to Keenan Allen’s 71/1046/8 stat line, but at a position where such production is much, much rarer.
Jeff Haseley: Jordan Reed is ready for a breakout and he's in a perfect situation in Washington with offensive-minded Jay Gruden calling the shots. It would not surprise me to see him finish in the Top 5 this year. Reed should be the primary receiving option at tight end for Gruden, compared to the combination of Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham in Cincinnati. The end result could be 60+ receptions and well over 700 yards receiving.
Bob Magaw: Reed was on his way to easily the best season among tight ends from the class of 2013 before his rookie campaign was cut short by a concussion severe enough to cause him to miss the last six games and with symptoms that lingered into the off-season. The former Florida multi-position athlete (QB, RB, WR and TE) should find himself even more open between the hashes with former Eagle speed merchant DeSean Jackson lined up across from Pierre Garcon on the outside, and with a rejuvenated Robert Griffin III delivering the ball. If he can avoid a neurological setback, Reed has special RAC skills for a TE, among the best in the game. New OC Sean McVay was the TE coach last year, is very cognizant of his talent, and reportedly looking forward to finding more ways to get the ball in his hands.
Kyle Rudolph, Min
Bob Henry: I really like Rudolph’s chances to bounce back as a top ten tight end this year now that he’s fully healthy and has the benefit of playing in Norv Turner’s fantasy friendly offensive system. Cordarrelle Patterson is an electric playmaker with immense potential, but it remains to be seen if he’s capable of being a high-target receiver or if Turner will utilize him in that manner. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rudolph emerge as the team’s leader in targets, catches and touchdowns. He’ll probably never become a big play, down-the-seems receiver, but he’s a strong red zone option who could thrive under Turner as defenses will be forced to contend with Adrian Peterson’s threat in the running game.
Steve Holloway: Kyle Rudolf was drafted in the 2nd round by Minnesota in 2011. His numbers have been modest thus far in his career, but he has improved every season. He missed the final half of the season last year with a foot injury, but returns healthy for 2014. The big change for Minnesota is their new offensive coordinator, Norv Turner. They will likely also have a new quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, who they traded back into the first round to draft. Rookie quarterbacks and Norv Turner both rely heavily on tight ends. Rudolf should get plentiful opportunities to make plays and he already has scored 15 TDs on only 109 career receptions.
Bob Magaw: Rudolph missed the last half of the 2013 season, but until that time was pacing as a low-end TE1 or high-end TE2. That wasn’t a fluke, as the hulking former TE U (Notre Dame) star also had a near top 10 season in 2012, his second year, on the strength of 9 receiving TDs. Opposing defenses could be heavily distracted by serial Pro Bowl RB Adrian Peterson and a pair of talented outside threats, former Green Bay Pro Bowl WR Greg Jennings and emerging star Cordarrelle Patterson. New OC Norv Turner oversaw TE Antonio Gates for over a half decade in San Diego, before turning Cleveland TE Jordan Cameron into a star (stats went from 20-226-1 in 2012 to 80-917-7 in 2013).
Jeff Tefertiller: With Norv Turner now in Minnesota, tight end Kyle Rudolph has a chance for a breakout season. Matt Cassel and Teddy Bridgewater will combine for improved quarterback play. Throughout his career in the coaching ranks, Turner has leaned heavily on the tight end position. Rudolph is the beneficiary.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Jordan Cameron, Cle
Sigmund Bloom: Cameron was ablaze with Brian Hoyer in the lineup for two games in 2013, accounting for four scores and 16 catches. Obviously he won’t produce at that clip all year, but either Hoyer or Manziel will be an improvement over his quarterback situation last year, and Cameron is only getting better as a basketball convert and late comer to full focus on football. His numbers could rival Graham/Gronkowski when the dust settles if he can even half of the quarterback play they get because he’ll be the best receiver on the team this year unless Josh Gordon’s suspension is less than a full season.
Bob Henry: Looking at the top 15 tight ends and their average draft position right now, I don’t see too many true values. It’s hard to say Cameron could be a value at his TE5 expectation now, but with Josh Gordon likely out for the year, I believe he’ll take another step forward and finish among the top 3. If Rob Gronkowski can stay healthy, he’s a shoe-in in the top 3, but he hasn’t been able to do that very often. Vernon Davis will have even more competition for targets and he seems perennially stuck in the 50 catch range despite having outstanding TD production. Cameron’s ceiling remains high even as a TE5 pick with what could be a huge volume of targets and a young, mobile rookie quarterback in Johnny Manziel looking to make him his version of Mike Evans. My strategy at tight end is basically Graham/Thomas/Cameron or wait.
Ryan Hester: Similar to my other tight end recommendation – Greg Olsen – Cameron should be the most targeted pass-catcher on his team this season. His athleticism as a former basketball player was on display in 2013, when he was able to box out and out-jump defenders of multiple positions. Johnny Manziel showed in college that he loves to make bold throws and put his faith in tall receivers, and Cameron is his best option for that type of pass. Last year, Cameron made the leap from “sleeper” to TE1. This year, he’ll leap from TE1 to an elite tier-two option at his position with Julius Thomas and Rob Gronkowski after the Jimmy Graham-by-himself tier.
Charles Clay, Mia
Heath Cummings: Clay had a breakout year in his third year, developing rapport with Ryan Tannehill and finishing as the TE7. His development has been a quiet one and that's why his draft position doesn't quite match his production. The Dolphins have experimented with using him as a hybrid player which shows their desire to get him the ball. Outside of Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline he doesn't have a lot of competition for targets. If Tannehill takes the step that many think he will this year Clay could even improve on last year's numbers.
Andy Hicks: It is easy to fret when you miss out at the big names at tight end this year, but Charles Clay is a good bet to come to your rescue. The Dolphins offense had significant issues last year, but should be much improved in 2014. Clay however was a pleasant surprise coming from relative obscurity to post a 7th ranked finish for fantasy tight ends. With Ryan Tannehill leaning on him, expect that to continue and for him to at least keep pace with last years numbers. Any improvement in red zone looks and Clay will finish well ahead of his luxurious current ADP.
Jeff Tefertiller: Charles Clay enjoyed a very good season last year, yet is drafted in the eleventh round this offseason. It was a relief that the Dolphins did not bring in competition for Clay. There is even talk that the team is looking to extend the contract of the undersized tight end. He is an every-week starter at tight end at the price of a backup.
Ladarius Green, SD
James Brimacombe: With the recent emergence of Philip Rivers play, a guy like Green is very intriguing. Green has plenty of things working in his favor with Gates finally slowing down and is clearly not the player he once was, also he has shown he can make big plays for the Chargers as he caught 17 passes last year for an astonishing average of 22.1 per catch.
Andy Hicks: The presence of stalwart Antonio Gates will frighten many off taking Ladarius Green, but Gates is now 34 and tight ends not named Tony Gonzalez struggle to make an impact at that age. Pushing Gates to a limited role even more will be Green who showed game breaking ability and will be ready to move up a level this year. Look for the Chargers to be inventive in their formations to utilize both of their tight ends, but expect Green to be the better playmaker as the year rolls on.
Matt Waldman: The one factor that you can’t always see on film is desire and consistent effort behind the scenes. If you see a player who displays fanatical consistency with form and technique there’s often a correlation. However, some players come from small programs where more guidance is necessary. There was never any question that Green has the athleticism to become a quality contributor in an NFL offense. What’s worth noting is the work he’s putting into his job. As TE15 on this list, I’m game. His ceiling is high enough that he’s worth consideration if you’re looking at the position later in drafts.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Zach Ertz, Phi
James Brimacombe: Ertz offers a lot of upside as he has shown he is a trusted asset in the Chip Kelly offense, look for him to have a strong offseason and hit the ground running once the season kicks off. A 50-60 catch season is very likely for Ertz in 2014 and with that production he should see close to 700-800 yards and 6 or 7 touchdowns. The TE position if pretty top heavy and finding a guy with high upside later on is going to allow you to draft the RB/WR positions more heavily in the first few rounds.
Steve Holloway: The Eagles offense commandeered by Chip Kelly drew a lot of attention a year ago, primarily related to the pace. It was effective as the Eagles rushing yardage increased by about 25% and their passing yardage also rose. The passing game was more effective once Nick Foles took over and he returns as the starter this year. Ertz, Kelly’s second round pick in his first draft started off slowly but improved as the year went on. Over the first half of the season, he averaged less than 2 catches and 24 yards per game and did not score a TD. For the second half of the season, that production increased to just over 3 catches and 38 yards per game and he scored 4 TDs. The Eagles offense will be different this year as they lost DeSean Jackson and gained Darren Sproles and have Jeremy Maclin returning. Passing efficiency should be better in year two of the offense with Ertz targets climbing as Brent Celek’s fall back.
Antonio Gates, SD
Kyle Wachtel: He's not getting any younger and while his targets dropped in the second half of 2013, his snaps remained consistent and those final games would still project to 58-644 over 16 games - borderline TE1 numbers.
Matt Waldman: We sure love to predict the demise of quality fantasy options when they get older. As a 33-year-old tight end in 2013, Gates was the No.9 fantasy option at the position and a value. Ladarius Green flashed skills as the beneficiary of wide open creases thanks to defenses occupied with Gates and Keenan Allen. Why can’t San Diego have two productive tight ends—they lack a slam dunk, No.2 receiver? No, Gates isn’t the athletic specimen he was five years ago, but it didn’t stop Tony Gonzalez. Like Gonzalez, Gates changed his diet last offseason and other than a late-season hamstring injury, he was healthy. Until the Chargers find a second receiver better than Malcom Floyd, Gates will be one of the top-three options in 2014 and a fine, late-round value.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Jimmy Graham, NO
Alex Miglio: Before you go, hear me out. Sure, Jimmy Graham is generally ranked in the top 10 overall, here at No. 7. That seems like the opposite of value, until you take a closer look anyway. Graham is in a tier all by himself at tight end, unless you want to risk Rob Gronkowski. He outscored the field by nearly 80 points last season, and there is little reason to believe there won’t be a similar disparity this year. Drafting Graham gives you a distinct advantage at tight end like you won’t see at any other position, which makes him a value here in PPR formats.
Dennis Pitta, Bal
Jeff Pasquino: First, let’s get the downside out of the way. Dennis Pitta lost all of last year due to a bad injury in the preseason, but that is behind him now. Baltimore is going to be a very tight end friendly passing attack this season with offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak now on the staff. Joe Flacco is already best friends with Pitta and loves to target him whenever he can, so I see a tight end with Top 5 upside that can be had for much cheaper in drafts this year.
Jason Witten, Dal
Mark Wimer: Jason Witten is simpatico with Tony Romo, and with Johnny Manziel in Cleveland the Cowboys are wedded to Romo's preferred targets for the foreseeable future - Witten has seen over 110 targets per season for seven straight years, and has finished in the top five among tight ends in four of those campaigns and finished sixth twice, including last year. He's a legitimate threat to finish over 1,000 yards receiving with high-single-digit TDs again during 2014. He should be much higher up the tight end board at the end of 2014 compared to his current draft position.