Unlock More Content Like This With A
Footballguys Premium Subscription
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE
A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player with 4 Votes
Joique Bell, Det
Steve Buzzard: Bell broke out in a big way last year and I expect him to be heavily involved in a high scoring Lions offense. We will split carries with Bush but will lead the way in goal line carries after scoring on 7 of his 12 attempts last year. The other benefit of Bell is just like Bush he is heavily involved in the passing game so game scripts are less likely to take him out of the game.
David Dodds: Detroit went out and got a lot more weapons in the passing game this offseason and that should increase Joique Bell's chances near the goal line. My eyes tell me he is the better back (over Reggie Bush). The two backs might split carries early in the year, but my money is on Bell with the better end of the year stats (and with the bigger role in the fantasy playoffs).
Adam Harstad: This year, I’m planting my flag in the Detroit and New Orleans running games. The offensive system these two teams run has been the most prolific offense for PPR RB production in NFL history, regularly resulting in 180+ targets for the RBs. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell are both phenomenal receivers and will be threats to lead all RBs in catches in 2014.
Ryan Hester: Last year started out with Reggie Bush as the feature back, but Bell worked his way into a pretty even split by season’s end (223 carries for Bush, 166 for Bell). This season should begin with the two starting pretty close to even. There are some concerns that the backfield could become three-headed with Theo Riddick, but Bell is entrenched as the goal line back and seems to be the least likely to be injured during the season. Bell and Bush are both more talented than Riddick.
Players with 3 Votes
Toby Gerhart, Jac
Jeff Haseley: Toby Gerhart may only score 6-7 touchdowns this year, but he should exceed 200 carries for the Jaguars and have at least 25-30 receptions, if not more. Two hundred carries is usually a good benchmark for reaching the Top 20. He has graded out well in place of Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. I expect his level of play to continue, if not increase as the lead back in Jacksonville.
Bob Magaw: Jacksonville is going to feed him the pill more than a ward full of hypochondriacs. Chad Henne is expected to be a one year stopgap and caretaker QB for the season with an inexperienced WR corp that includes rookie second rounders Marqise Lee and Alan Robinson, so Gerhart could be the focal point of the offense in 2014. He has shown well in previous limited opportunity and has the collegiate resume, draft pedigree, size, strength, speed, athleticism and personal makeup to be a feature RB. Gerhart is the new Marshawn Lynch for HC Gus Bradley..
Kyle Wachtel: Gerhart has averaged 4.73 yards on 276 career carries for a team that didn't boast a threatening passing game. Set up to be the workhorse back in Jacksonville, he's a capable starter with the potential for 300+ touches. Opportunity like that is tough to come by and Gerhart is being drafted at least a full round later than he should be.
Mark Ingram, NO
Heath Cummings: At his ADP (RB52) Ingram is more of a deep sleeper, but he provides excellent value too. The Saints are sliding Pierre Thomas into the Darren Sproles role and dividing a majority of the carries between Ingram and Khiry Robinson. If Ingram can come anywhere close to his 2013 career-high 4.9 YPC he’s going to get a bigger chunk of the pie. His ceiling is borderline RB2, but at this cost that’s a steal.
Adam Harstad: This year, I’m planting my flag in the Detroit and New Orleans running games. The offensive system these two teams run has been the most prolific offense for PPR RB production in NFL history, regularly resulting in 180+ targets for the RBs. Mark Ingram has traditionally not been involved in the passing game, but New Orleans has averaged 12 passes to its RBs in the preseason, and Pierre Thomas only has three targets. Several players who have not been involved in the passing game before are going to be involved in it going forward, and at his dirt-cheap cost (and current 1st-string position on the depth chart), Ingram is a phenomenal gamble.
Kyle Wachtel: Nearly written off as a bust, Ingram showed signs of life last season, averaging just over 5.0 yards-per-carry on rushes including the playoffs. He will open up 2014 as the lead back and admitted to being motivated by the opportunity to land a new, lucrative contract.
Fred Jackson, Buf
Sigmund Bloom: Jackson is officially the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy running backs. CJ Spiller’s injury did create some added opportunity for Jackson, but the core of Jackson’s value came from goal line rushes and use in the passing game. There’s no sign that he won’t play a similar role this year in a backfield that has enough to go around while leading the league rushing attempts last year despite going 6-10.
Ryan Hester: Buffalo ran more plays than any team in the NFL last year. They play a hurry-up style of football and have a young quarterback. That should lead to a surplus of rushes again in 2014. If looking at Weeks 1-16 from last year, Jackson finished as RB12 in PPR scoring. While C.J. Spiller is back in the fold limiting Jackson from that ceiling, his current RB36 spot is far too low. It’s Jackson – not Spiller – that gets the high-value fantasy work in this offense: passing downs and red zone touches. Jackson’s ceiling and his floor are higher than this draft position.
Chad Parsons: Fred Jackson is a steal as a low RB3 investment. He is the only complete back on the Bills depth chart, will get goal line opportunities regardless of C.J. Spiller's health and is the best pass-blocker. Jackson is a flex play at his floor with high-RB2 upside with a Spiller injury.
Chris Johnson, NYJ
Andy Hicks: Chris Johnson wore out his welcome in Tennessee and the Jets happily signed him to a 2 year contract. He lands in an ideal situation. His competition for running the ball is adequate, but hardly likely to threaten his playing time, while he has a good offensive line and a running quarterback. He may have lost a step or 2, but is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and a strong, if not explosive runner these days. He has been incredibly durable, playing in every game in which he was available in a 6 year career and will give the Jets a dimension that has been lacking since Curtis Martin retired. He should easily out produce his borderline RB2/Flex ADP.
Stephen Holloway: Chris Johnson signed a two-year $8 Million contract with the New York Jets. It doesn’t sound impressive, but that was the largest contract of the 2014 running back market and was for about double of the per year pay that Chris Ivory got with the Jets a year ago. The Jets have a strong offensive line and prefer to run the ball, so even though Johnson may not get as great a percentage of the carries this season, he should see enough to again top 1,000 rushing yards, which he has done in each of his six previous NFL seasons. Johnson is not as fast as he was when he came into the league, but he can still make big plays and will again have an opportunity to catch a lot of passes. He has averaged 45 receptions per year, while Ivory has 5 catches over his four NFL seasons. Bilal Powell is likely to see his role greatly diminished with Johnson joining the Jets. As an added bonus, Johnson has missed only one game in his six years in the league.
Jason Wood: Chris Johnson is being drafted outside the top 20 at his position, which is mind-boggling. Johnson is a shadow of the player who once amassed 2,500 yards from scrimmage, but that doesn’t make him an invaluable asset. I hear a lot about Johnson’s struggles – yet he finished as RB9 last year! He was a top 10 fantasy runner and joins a Jets team with a defensive-minded head coach, limited weapons in the passing game, and a plus offensive line. Johnson may not FEEL like a great pick, but as your RB3 he’s a steal.
Lamar Miller, Mia
Ryan Hester: Last year’s preseason hype on Miller was never realized, mainly due to poor coaching and a stubborn refusal to involve him in the offense. This year, the free agent signing of Knowshon Moreno seemed to be a roadblock for Miller once more. However, Moreno report to OTAs out of shape and had a knee injury that delayed his start to camp. New Offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor is a Chip Kelly disciple, and the team already showed flashes of read-option, hurry-up, and a willingness to use Miller as a receiver in their first preseason game. He will be at least a two-down back for Miami, an offense that will emphasize the run and have an extra blocker play-side.
Ari Ingel: Miller burned Fantasy owners last season and that’s why the team felt the need to sign Knowshon Moreno in the off-season. While Moreno has started to come on recently, Miller has looked fantastic in camp so far and is drawing praise from the coaching staff. Some of Miller’s shortcomings last year were due to a poor fit in in their offensive scheme and brutal offensive line play. This season Chip Kelly protégé, Bill Lazor, takes over as offensive coordinator and he should do a much better job at getting Miller into space as Miller takes on the LeSean McCoy role. The offense should more be up-tempo with a ton of runs, as the Eagles ran the 4th most run plays of any team last season. And despite the injury to Center Mike Pouncey, who may miss the first month of the season, the Dolphins also did a good job of upgrading their offensive line, bringing in Brandon Albert from the Chiefsand spending their first round draft pick on Ja’Wuan James. He’s no lock, but Miller is still a value pick at the moment.
Jeff Pasquino: Everyone thought that Knowshon Moreno was going to be the starting tailback for the Dolphins this year, but so far it has been Lamar Miller who is running with the first string this offseason. Miller’s ADP has him available very late, and any time you can get the starting tailback for an NFL team after Round 10 it just screams value. You may not like Miller at all, but value is value and he is well worth adding as your third or fourth tailback for your fantasy team this year.
Pierre Thomas, NO
Adam Harstad: This year, I’m planting my flag in the Detroit and New Orleans running games. The offensive system these two teams run has been the most prolific offense for PPR RB production in NFL history, regularly resulting in 180+ targets for the RBs. Pierre Thomas is a beast in the passing game who led all RBs with 77 receptions last year and whose receiving role might be even larger still with the departure of fellow 70-catch RB Darren Sproles.
Stephen Holloway: Pierre Thomas has had a very nice seven-year career with the New Orleans Saints. He originally signed with them in 2007 as an undrafted free agent. He has always been at best a member of the Saints RBBC and that will be his role again in 2014. However, last year he tied his career high with 147 carries and more importantly was a key producer in the Saints’ passing attack, catching a career high 77 passes. Although he rushed for only 3.7 ypc, the second lowest of his career, his involvement in the passing game put him over 1,000 yards from scrimmage for only the second time. With fellow pass catching stud, Darren Sproles departing for Philadelphia, Thomas will be the primary pass catcher out of the backfield and should remain active in the rushing attack. He finished as RB16 a year ago in ppr scoring and should provide similar production in 2014.
Kyle Wachtel: One would have assumed that the ADP for a back who led the NFL with 77 receptions in 2013 would only soar after the departure of Darren Sproles. That hasn't been the case and Thomas is available at the ripe price of a late sixth round pick.
Players with 2 Votes
Giovani Bernard, Cin
James Brimacombe: People are being scared off Bernard a little due to the Bengals bringing in Jeremy Hill and the thought of him losing goal line carries. Bernard is entering his second season and looked explosive and quick in his rookie season. I see no reason why the Bengals won't use him to his full potential and a 300 touch type of season is not out of the question.
Jeff Haseley: The growth and development of Giovani Bernard is going to take a big step forward this year. Hue Jackson's offense is heavy on the running game and Bernard is the perfect fit as a runner and receiver in the new Bengals offense. I fully expect him to approach, if not exceed 300 touches this year. In my estimation, he is the best compact goal line runner since LaDainian Tomlinson.
Devonta Freeman, Atl
Jeff Pasquino: Atlanta needs balance on offense, and they can get that if they can find a more viable backfield option than the rapidly aging Steven Jackson. Fourth round pick Devonta Freeman is just the right candidate, as he has three-down talent and I expect him to steal touches from Jackson early in the year. He could easily take over as the top tailback for Atlanta by November, which makes him a great value pick with that tremendous upside for the second half of the season. Get him on your team before the Hard Knocks hype really hits.
Jason Wood: The Falcons thought they had solved the RB conundrum last year by acquiring veteran Steven Jackson. Things didn’t go according to plan as Jackson suffered through a miserable 543-yard (3.5 YPC) season. While Jackson will be given another shot at the starter’s role, history has not been kind to backs with Jackson’s workload. Once they fall off, they don’t rebound. Enter rookie Freeman who, in my mind, is one of the most balanced runners in the draft class. As long as his reputation for being a hard worker and a committed blocker hold true, Freeman could push for playing time immediately and be the full-time starter by midseason.
Jeremy Hill, Cin
Bob Magaw: Through a quirk of fate, possibly the best RB from the class of 2014 landed square in the same backfield with the top drafted RB from the class of 2013. Perhaps it was prompted by new OC Hue Jackson’s stated intention to field a more robust and potent run game. Hill looks like an ideal complement to the good looking, Brian Westbrook-like, second year all purpose back Giovani Bernard, who will line up as a WR at times. The former LSU star’s 6.9 YPC average last season broke the SEC conference record set by Georgia’s Garrison Hearst over two decades ago. Hill has an unusual mix of size, power, contact balance, quickness, feet, agility and elusiveness that makes him tough to bring down in the open field and a constant threat to break big plays in the run game. If/when he replaces “Law Firm”, throw out the numbers put up by his plodding predecessor, as Hill is a vastly superior talent and far more dangerous and explosive weapon in the run game. Bernard put up better than top 20 production as a rookie in a RBBC time share, and Hill has a chance to replicate the feat a year later.
Jeff Pasquino: Jeremy Hill is poised to be a breakout rookie for the Bengals this year. He is already second on the depth chart, behind Giovani Bernard but ahead of BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Cincinnati is going to use two backs a lot this year, and Hill is expected to get 10-15 touches a game. Bernard may be more of the receiving option, but Hill could get more goal line work, adding to his value this season.
Rashad Jennings, NYG
Jeff Haseley: The loss of David Wilson accentuates my interest in Jennings, but even before Wilson was an afterthought, I was high on Jennings and his versatility as a rusher and receiving option for the new-look Giants offense. I expect him to reach upwards of 40 receptions along with 200+ carries. Getting him as an RB3 is one of the better values among running backs this year.
Matt Waldman: David Wilson's career is over, Andre Brown wasn't retained in New York, and rookie Andre Williams is big and fast, but his production between the tackles and skill on third down are question marks, and Jennings is a "young" 29 with the combination of power, agility, and speed to produce as a fantasy RB1 in an offense that will lean on him -- especially in the short passing game. Look for Jennings to have a career year in Washington, despite an overhauled offensive line that might limit his efficiency, but not his workload.
Ryan Mathews, SD
Matt Harmon: You can get a reliable RB2 at a very manageable cost this year in Ryan Mathews. He finished in the top-16 of PPR leagues and that’s a format that doesn’t suit his strengths. This year in drafts, you can regularly get him in the fourth round, but sometimes he even falls to the fifth. Mathews suffered a few minor ailments last season, but played through pain and was tough throughout. The injury prone label should not be as a big of a factor as it once was when assessing this player. The Chargers have other capable backs on the roster, but they are actually there to benefit Mathews. San Diego realizes they over worked him towards the end of 2013. Brining his 285 carries down could actually help his 4.4 yards per attempt go up. Despite the presence of Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead, Mathews is still the leading man in the San Diego backfield, and can be had at a manageable cost.
Stephen Holloway: Mathews remained healthy all of 2013, for the first time in his career and posted career highs in carries, yards rushing, and tied for career high in TDs. His receptions fell as Danny Woodhead was the primary pass catcher out of the backfield. The Chargers’ offense really changed mid-stream last year and could improve Mathews’ opportunity to excel this year. Over the team’s first 12 games, Mathews averaged 14 rushes per game. The last four games, the Chargers ramped up their running game and he averaged 27 carries per game, going over 100 yards three times and rushing for 99 in the other. He scored almost half of his 2013 TDs and caught 1/3 of his season’s receptions in those four games. Mathew’s production will depend on the Chargers continuing to lean more heavily on the rushing game this season as they did down the stretch last year, when they played their best football.
Ray Rice, Bal
Andy Hicks: Ray Rice has an ADP that keeps dropping and while a 2 game suspension is significant, he will return to being a fantasy force this year. The Gary Kubiak system is very friendly to running backs and Rice has lost weight that was probably a significant factor in his underachievement last year. He can be drafted as a 3rd running back and will outperform a lot of guys ahead of him. Remember that this guy has finished as a top 4 fantasy running back in multiple seasons and is still only 27. The definition of value.
Matt Waldman: Josh Gordon missed four games due to a suspension and was a top-5 fantasy receiver. Ray Rice is only missing two games. Rice is also healthy, lost weight and appears quicker, the Ravens upgraded its offensive line, and the coaching staff acquired Gary Kubiak and his zone running game that features two-tight end sets. Some fantasy owners fear that Bernard Pierce's opportunities won't fade away when Rice returns and it could lead to a full-blown committee. Pierce could earn some short yardage carries, but Rice outclasses Pierce as as passing down player -- even if Pierce has shown gradual improvement since his college years at Rutgers where pass protection was a deficiency.Look for Rice to have a rebound season as a top-12 fantasy runner. He may not return to the top 5, but don't let the specter of workload scare you off when the data isn't reliable and the reasons for Rice's down year are explainable.
Bishop Sankey, Ten
Phil Alexander: Despite the clues pointing to a RBBC in Tennessee, I remain a believer in both Sankey’s talent and opportunity. What we know about Sankey - he possesses elite lateral agility, he was a proven all-purpose workhorse back in college, and the Titans invested significant draft equity (2nd round pick) to acquire him. What we know about Shonne Greene - only three of his 899 career carries have gone for 30+ yards, he’s had two surgeries on the same knee in the last ten months, and he’s already aggravated the injury this preseason. In short, I’m not worried about Greene getting in Sankey’s way for long. Dexter McCluster will have a role too, but San Diego running backs combined for 112 receptions last season under Ken Whisenhunt. There’s room for both Sankey and McCluster to thrive in the passing game. I might end up going down with the ship, but Sankey remains one of my top RB2 targets.
Andy Hicks: Rookie running backs are always a risk, but sometimes they land in a perfect situation. Such is the case with Bishop Sankey. Last years starter, Chris Johnson, has moved on and the only other back of note is the pedestrian Shonn Greene. Greene is 29 and coming off 2 knee surgeries in 12 months. Sankey will need to be able to pass protect and at least demonstrate he is worthy of playing, but it would be a surprise to not see him start on the opening day. At his current ADP there are few if any backs who are likely to exceed 200 carries and be the dominant runner on their team. If Sankey can prove he is more than average then there is only upside to those numbers.
C.J. Spiller, Buf
Sigmund Bloom: Spiller was a strong RB1 in 2012, but suffered a high ankle sprain in 2013 and only exhibited his old form when he had a week to rest his injury. The league high volume of the Bills running game should give Spiller the foundation he needs to get back to his big play ways and provide plenty of RB1 weeks for an RB2 price.
James Brimacombe: If you don't get one of the top 4 RB's in Charles, McCoy, Peterson, and Forte, it is nice to not have to settle for one of the other names in the 1st round that you are unsure of and rather use your pick on a star TE or WR and then grab Spiller in the 3rd round. Spiller might have lost a lot of leagues for people in 2013 but you have to remember what he did on the field in 2012. He has some huge upside and is well worth the price in round 3.
Players with 1 Vote
Reggie Bush, Det
Adam Harstad: This year, I’m planting my flag in the Detroit and New Orleans running games. The offensive system these two teams run has been the most prolific offense for PPR RB production in NFL history, regularly resulting in 180+ targets for the RBs. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell are both phenomenal receivers and will be threats to lead all RBs in catches in 2014.
Matt Forte, Chi
Steve Buzzard: I expect the Bears offense to be one of the better ones in the league. The biggest knock on Forte is his goal line usage but last year he was given 54% of the goal line carries and was successful on 61% scoring 6 touch downs. Behind the same line Michael Bush was only successful 20% of the time. Carey will cut into his usage but I see Forte as an elite difference maker RB and should be near the top of the big 4 not the bottom.
Arian Foster, Hou
Stephen Holloway: Arian Foster ranked as RB1, RB4 and RB2 from 2010-2012, before falling back last season as he missed 8 games. The combination of last season’s injuries, this year’s missing practices and the uncertainties for Houston at the quarterback position has depressed the market for Texans’ players in general, including Foster. Regardless of who is quarterbacking the team, O’Brien’s coaching should improve the consistency of the Texans’ offense and provide Foster an abundance of opportunities to run and catch the ball out of the back-field. A review of Foster’s stats from last year reveals that he averaged 4.5 ypc, more than in either2011 and 2012.
Frank Gore, SF
Ari Ingel: San Francisco is a run based offensive, so Gore is going to be involved. The Niners also have a quality group of receivers and the biggest quarterback running threats in the game to keep defenses honest. While Gore is getting up there in age and the cliff can come at any time, he appears to be running well in practice and could easily produce RB2 numbers.
Carlos Hyde, SF
Jason Wood: The 49ers depth chart has thinned considerably over the preseason, with Kendall Hunter’s season-ending injury and Marcus Lattimore’s slow recovery. Hyde is now unquestionably the backup and even if you think Frank Gore has another solid season (I do), Hyde becomes a must add because he’s one injury away from being the lead back on a run-heavy team with a top-tier offensive line. That’s to say nothing of Hyde’s talent – unlike many handcuffs I have no doubt Hyde can be a feature back if given the role.
Steven Jackson, Atl
Sigmund Bloom: Jackson is old and already hurt, but he is still the lead back in an offense that produced five 20+ point games from a running back in PPR leagues last year. He’s still a solid pass catcher and short yardage back. That’s enough to make him a solid RB2 any week that he’s healthy enough to start. Consider him a good fallback plan if you only take one running back in the first six rounds of your draft.
Marshawn Lynch, Sea
Ari Ingel: Fantasy owners and NFL owners are not always on the same page and I think that is the case here with Lynch. Fantasy teams are enamored with Christine Michael, but Lynch’s demise is not yet to be. Just like Allen Iverson, Lynch isn’t talking about practice. Beast Mode is about game day and at 28 years old, he still has another season of dominating the touches in this run based offense. While not extremely undervalued, that you can get your RB1 stud in the middle of the second round, that’s value.
Doug Martin, TB
Heath Cummings: I actually had Martin as a value play before the Charles Sims injury, but that certainly helps. Martin will once again be running behind a bad offensive line, but I have much more faith in Lovie Smith and Jeff Tedford finding a solution than I did Greg Schiano. Martin is an extremely talented back that can fulfill any role you ask of him. He’s excellent in open space and has shown a nose for the goal line. Bobby Rainey and Mike James may see some work in the offense but Martin will still see a large majority of the touches.
Bernard Pierce, Bal
Matt Harmon: Someone from the Ravens backfield is going to feast this year with Gary Kubiakcalling the shots. Kubiak runs a derivation of the famous zone running scheme Mike Shanahan made famous in Denver. It is well known for churning out productive running backs, even ones with suspect talent levels. Bernard Pierce is a more talented player than many others who have thrived in this scheme. Don’t be scared off by his 2.9 yards per carry figure. That low mark was due to a non-threatening pass offense and a woeful offensive line. The Ravens have worked to revamp the line, and the passing game has received a shot in the arm. Pierce has been building a strong buzz all offseason, and is definitely in the mix to start. He’ll get the call for the first two games due to Ray Rice’s suspension. It doesn’t sound like the Ravens will be looking for a reason to go back to Rice if Pierce runs away with the chance. The more experienced player in Rice could be the one who lands the opportunity in this prosperous system. However, Rice has a ton of mileage on his body, is aging and once again struggling with injuries this preseason. Given their ADPs, Pierce is the better value play.
Khiry Robinson, NO
Matt Harmon: New Orleans runs one of the most profitable backfields for fantasy in the NFL. The trouble is guessing which player will lead the show. Considering cost and ability, Khiry Robinson feels like the safest bet this year. It is highly unusual to see Robinson come off the board before the ninth round of fantasy drafts. He’s sandwiched between Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram, but might be the superior player to both. Robinson looks ready to take a few of the receptions Sproles left behind that everyone is penciling in for Pierre Thomas. Observers at training camp praised his pass catching ability. Robinson also has looked like a better runner than Ingram, at times. Whenever Robinson has seen the field, he’s been powerful and decisive. The same cannot be said for the former Heisman trophy winner. The Saints are likely to field a committee backfield. Thomas will keep his role as a pass catcher, and a strong bet in PPR leagues. However, Robinson is the only one of the group capable of emerging as a lead running back.
Terrence West, Cle
Chad Parsons: Terrence West, RB36, is a terrific investment in two regards: he can be a three-down option and Ben Tate has consistently missed time in his NFL career even without a full complement of touches. The Browns will be run-heavy, making West a flex play even when Tate is healthy, with upside from there.
Danny Woodhead, SD
Heath Cummings: The Chargers don’t have a lot of options in the passing game and Woodhead was excellent there in 2013. For those worried about touches, Woodhead finished as PPR RB12 last year with 182 touches. Even if he sees that number fall to 150 he should be a really good bet to be a borderline RB2.