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A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 8 Votes
Toby Gerhart, Jac
Joe Bryant: Toby Gerhart may be the best RB in the league with 4 years of experience and fewer than 300 career rushing attempts. But that's life behind Adrian Peterson. Gerhart moves to Jacksonville where he'll be the featured back for coach Gus Bradley. A team will often show their hand on how they feel about a player by what kind of effort or moves they make to add depth. Looking at Jacksonville's handling of the RB corps, they feel very confident with Gerhart. An overlooked part of Gerhart's game is his receiving ability. He scored 3 receiving touchdowns in 2011 and he's expected to be a contributor in the Jaguar passing game.
Cian Fahey: Maurice Jones-Drew wasn't at 100 percent last year after struggling with injury entering the regular season. His issues lingered long into the second half of the season, but he still had nearly 300 touches on the year. Jaguars offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch rode his best player at the position as much as he possibly could, so we should expect him to do the same with Toby Gerhart. Gerhart isn't your typical backup free agent signing who becomes a starter. He was only a backup because he played in Minnesota. He has a lot of talent both as a runner and a receiving option, with the potential to see significant time at the goal line.
Jeff Haseley: Toby Gerhart may only score 6-7 touchdowns, but he should exceed 200 carries for the Jaguars and have at least 25-30 receptions, if not more. Two hundred carries is usually a good benchmark for reaching the Top 20 and Gerhart is currently the 28th running back off the board. He has graded out well in place of Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. I expect his level of play to continue, if not increase as the lead back in Jacksonville.
Ryan Hester: Gerhart came out of college with the pedigree to be a second-round pick but was stuck behind one of the NFL’s best running backs of all time for the first four years of his career. In limited action as a primary ball-carrier, Gerhart performed quite well. He has nine games with double-digit carries in his career, and in those games, he averaged 4.71 yards per carry. Gerhart isn’t going to be confused with an elite speedster like Jamaal Charles or even a great big back like Peterson, but his situation in Jacksonville should afford him one of fantasy’s key elements – opportunity. For those that demand their fantasy rushers be pass-catchers, consider that Gerhart has 77 receptions in very limited action in his career. He’s a capable pass-blocker, meaning that he could get work on all three downs – something to monitor throughout training camps.
Bob Magaw: Jacksonville is going to feed him the pill more than a ward full of hypochondriacs. Chad Henne is expected to be a one year stopgap and caretaker QB for the season with an inexperienced WR corp that includes rookie second rounders Marqise Lee and Alan Robinson, so Gerhart could be the focal point of the offense in 2014. He has shown well in previous limited opportunity and has the collegiate resume, draft pedigree, size, strength, speed, athleticism and personal makeup to be a feature RB. Gerhart is the new Marshawn Lynch for HC Gus Bradley.
Jeff Pasquino: Remember when Michael Turner was stuck behind LaDainian Tomlinson all those years in San Diego? This is exactly what I think has happed for Toby Gerhart, who also was trapped by a super stud running back in the form of Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. Now Gerhart gets the chance to be a true feature tailback, and the Jaguars are already expecting 15-20 carries a week from him this season. There are reasons to doubt Gerhart (not a great team, weak passing game) but the signs are all there that he will be a feature back with upside for 2014.
Kyle Wachtel: This is not only an instance where opportunity trumps all (Gerhart is in line for 300+ touches), but his talent is also being undervalued; he's averaged 4.73 YPC on 276 carries with an underwhelming supporting cast.
Jason Wood: Gerhart has been a part-time contributor in four seasons in Minnesota. But don’t let his limited role fool you; any runner would’ve been used sparingly with Adrian Peterson ahead of them on the depth chart. Now Gerhart takes his talents to Jacksonville; a team DESPERATE for offensive difference makers. Gerhart is a 234 lbs. power back with good vision and patience. He’s averaged 4.7 yards per rush and has soft hands as a receiver. In Jacksonville there’s no one on the depth chart that will easily push for playing time, and given the youth movement at QB/WR, OC JeddFisch will lean on Gerhart as much as possible. He’s a legitimate high end fantasy RB2 that can be had for a fraction of the price.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Giovani Bernard, Cin
James Brimacombe: After a great rookie season where Bernard ranked in as the 16th best RB in the league with only 170 rushing attempts, I feel that he is being under drafted right now and has potential to be a late 1st round pick with his potential coming into year 2. First off he plays in an offense that can move the ball very well and there is plenty of opportunities to get touches rushing and to get touches in the air. Bernard’s most impressive stats from last year were in the air where he converted 56 catches into 514 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is on the verge of being the kind of RB that Ray Rice has been and cracking into that elite top 5 RB tier.
Heath Cummings: In a PPR format I see Bernard as a back that has a legitimate shot at a top five season. As a rookie he posted 1200 total yards and 8 touchdowns on 226 touches. That was more than we expected last year and nearly everyone believes he'll see at least a 10% increase in touches. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has very little left in the tank and Jeremy Hill isn't someone the Bengals will be able to count on early in the year. The Bengals offense seems to be perpetually underrated but with A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, and Bernard they have the dynamic weapons needed to be one of the top offenses in the AFC.
Jeff Haseley: The growth and development of Giovani Bernard is going to take a big step forward this year. Hue Jackson's offense is heavy on the running game and Bernard is the perfect fit as runner and receiver in the new Bengals offense. I fully expect him to approach, if not exceed 300 touches this year. He also is the best compact goal line runner since LaDainian Tomlinson.
Jason Wood: Bernard’s ADP likely reflects worry about a crowded backfield that includes returning veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis and thundering rookie Jeremy Hill. Yet, let’s remember Green-Ellis is a candidate for summer release, in my opinion. Even if Green-Ellis isn’t released, I see very little chance Bernard’s role doesn’t increase markedly in his second year. New OC Hue Jackson is a more conventional play-caller than Jay Gruden and Bernard is the only 3-down runner on the roster. Jackson has given no indication he intends to use a committee approach. Bernard was the 13th ranked RB as a rookie in spite of just 226 touches. That’s his floor IF I’m wrong about the committee situation. Yet, more likely, he vaults into the Top 10 as the lead back and never looks back.
Trent Richardson, Ind
Sigmund Bloom: So it has come to this? Richardson can’t be worse than he was in 2013, and the Colts appear to be committed to him as their lead back this season. Unless they just flat out bench Richardson, he should be in line for 15-20 touches and goal line opportunities, and if he finds his game in 2014, he would be one of the steals of the draft in the sixth round. If the Colts can get him more targets in the passing game, and run Richardson more out of spread sets, good things will follow.
Heath Cummings: As it often does, the pendulum has swung too far on Richardson. He's currently being drafted behind the likes of Rashad Jennings and Toby Gerhart, which to me seems absurd. Yes, Richardson struggled last year, but there's still plenty of talent (and a good situation in Indy) to make you believe in the possibility of a bounceback. He may never be as good as we all thought he could be but he'll be better than he was last year, especially in PPR leagues.
Bob Magaw: Rather than fall back on the less than convincing position, “Richardson can’t be as bad as he looked last year, can he?”, it is important to note that, unlike, say, baseball, where you can slap in a designated hitter acquired from an in-season trade, it is in the very complex and highly interconnected nature of football, the consumate TEAM sport, that can make the incorporation of an in-season trade acquisition problematic and non-trivial. He struggled to grasp the new scheme, and by his own admission, thinking instead of reacting caused him to play slow. Noting that Richardson was one of the highest drafted RBs of the past decade means little more to some than that this represents an epic overdraft example, but it was not too long ago that he had a relatively promising rookie season (267-950-11 rushing, 51-367-1 receiving) under the circumstances. On paper, the 2014 Colts should have a far more competent and productive offense than the 2012 Browns.
Matt Waldman: He’s terrible! How can you list him as a value?! He weighed 240 pounds after postseason shoulder surgery and he looked slow last year. Looking slow and being slow are two different things. He looked slow because he wasn’t familiar with the playbook last year and ran tentatively. He put in extra time to study in the offseason and he’s back at 225 pounds once the rehab from surgery reached a point where he could train. Fans cringe upon learning that Richardson’s yards-per- carry average has never been above four yards during his first two seasons. Three of Curtis Martin’s first four seasons as a pro had an average between 3.5-4.0. Willis McGahee had three seasons below 4.0 during his first five as a pro. I’m not writing off Richardson. He’s an NFL starter and the 29th RB off the board after finishing as the No.9 fantasy RB a year before.
C.J. Spiller, Buf
Sigmund Bloom: Spiller was a top five running back in 2012, and drafted to be one in 2013. An early season high ankle sprain kept that from happening, but when Spiller had a week’s rest after his injury last year, he displayed the acceleration, elusiveness, and top-end speed to be a threat to take it to the house on every touch. He’s a slam dunk as your RB2 in the third round.
James Brimacombe: What you get with Spiller is a RB2 with huge RB1 potential. Spiller is coming off a disappointing 2013 season where he was hit with nagging injuries that played into why his speed and burst weren’t up to his 2012 season. The Bills offense in general is taking a bit of a turnover and it looks as if they are going all in on the offensive side of the ball and are going to try to win with speed. Spiller has top 10 RB potential in his game and offers a huge plus in PPR formats with his run after the catch ability. He is an explosive runner that can break a run for a touchdown at any time in the game.
Cian Fahey: There wasn't much for C.J. Spiller to be happy about during the 2013 season. He lacked explosiveness but that was seemingly due to injury. Fred Jackson has fought off his decline for too long, so the addition of Bryce Brown should be more of a threat to his production than Spiller's. The additions that matter for Spiller should come on the offensive line, where an influx of rookies will compete for starting spots to upgrade the run blocking. Last year's run blocking was awful for Spiller but he is not a back who needs perfect exection upfront to be consistently productive. A fully healthy Spiller should be one of the most productive backs in the NFL in 2014.
Ryan Hester: The term “post-hype sleeper” has become popular over the past few years, but when we all look back decades from now at the glory era of fantasy football, we’ll think the term was coined for Spiller based on his 2014 season. Considered by many a breakout candidate and elite fantasy option entering 2013, Spiller was hampered by injuries throughout the season. When Spiller was healthy or rested, he looked like the player many anticipated. He had 103 yards in Week 2 against what turned out to be a stout Carolina defense; 116 against Kansas City after a DNP in Week 8; and 149 in Week 12 after a Week 11 bye. He had no more than 16 carries in any of those games. Add in the fact that Buffalo retains its coaching staff that called an NFL-high 546 rush attempts, and the opportunity comes close to matching the elite talent.
Pierre Thomas, NO
Steve Holloway: Pierre Thomas has had a very nice seven-year career with the New Orleans Saints. He originally signed with them in 2007 as an undrafted free agent. He has always been at best a member of the Saints RBBC and that will be his role again in 2014. However, last year he tied his career high with 147 carries and more importantly was a key producer in the Saints’ passing attack, catching a career high 77 passes. Although he rushed for only 3.7 ypc, the second lowest of his career, his involvement in the passing game put him over 1,000 yards from scrimmage for only the second time. With fellow pass catching stud, Darren Sproles departing for Philadelphia, Thomas will be the primary pass catcher out of the backfield and should remain active in the rushing attack. He finished as RB16 a year ago in ppr scoring and should provide similar production in 2014.
Chad Parsons: Darren Sproles and his 71 receptions from 2013 are now in Philadelphia. Mark Ingram, while he is bound to catch more than seven passes from a year ago, is unlikely to take on the Sproles role in the offense. Khiry Robinson and Travaris Cadet are wildcards. Thomas has caught 166 balls over the past three seasons and has 80-100 receptions as his ceiling this year. Even with a true committee in terms of rushing attempts in New Orleans, Thomas becomes a rock solid RB2+ with his receiving game boost.
Jeff Tefertiller: With Darren Sproles now in Philadelphia, expect the role of Pierre Thomas to expand even further. He is expected to split time with Robinson and Ingram, two hard running ball carriers. Thomas will offer value in the passing game and be a quality fantasy RB2, with a fair chance to finish in the the Top 10.
Kyle Wachtel: Thomas caught 77 of 82 targets last season, helping him to finish as the 16th running back in PPR leagues in 2013. Catch-rate regression may set in, but volume should rise.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Joique Bell, Det
Joe Bryant: Just like the situation with Toby Gerhart where the team's shown confidence in the player by not making moves to add depth behind him, the Lions showed what they think of Bell by re-signing him before Free Agency began. 2013 Reggie Bush owners know all too well that Bell's a huge threat to Reggie Bush and we don't see that threat diminishing in the least. He's a powerful runner with explosion and he'll continue to vulture goal line carries and he could easily see a much more prominent role should Bush battle injuries again. Even without a Reggie Bush injury, Bell's a valuable player.
David Dodds: Detroit went out and got a lot more weapons in the passing game this offseason and that should increase Joique Bell's chances near the goal line. My eyes tell me he is the better back (over Reggie Bush). The two backs might split carries early in the year, but my money is on Bell with the better end of the year stats (and with the bigger role in the fantasy playoffs)
Bob Henry: Bell has earned a sizable role in the Lions offense despite being a backup to Reggie Bush. He’s the team’s preferred option at the goal line and a viable pass-catching threat out of the backfield with back-to-back 50 catch seasons under his belt. New offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi adds an element of intrigue, if not risk, to Bell’s value as it remains to be seen how he’ll be utilized. Scott Linehan made him almost a 1b to Reggie Bush’s 1a in a platoon-like rotation. One thing is certain, Bell provides more in short yardage situations, he’s a highly capable third down back and if Bush succumbs to injury he instantly becomes a top 10 or 15 back. Even without injury, Lombardi has produced a pair of 70-catch backs with the Saints (Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles), and the Lions should continue to be among the most prolific, up-tempo offenses in the league.
Devonta Freeman, Atl
Joe Bryant: For the reasons I'm down on Steven Jackson, I'm high on Devonta Freeman. For this area, it's all about upside and fit. Freeman has both as Steven Jackson's on the wrong side of 30 and Jacquizz Rodgers has shown he's not the guy to fill Jackson's role. Freeman's short at 5' 8" but at 206 pounds he's big enough. If Jackson fades, and I think he will, I like Freeman as a guy with upside to leap frog over Rodgers.
Jeff Pasquino: Atlanta needs balance on offense, and they can get that if they can find a more viable backfield option than the rapidly aging Steven Jackson. Fourth round pick Devonta Freeman is just the right candidate, as he has three-down talent and I expect him to steal touches from Jackson early in the year. He could easily take over as the top tailback for Atlanta by November, which makes him a great value pick with that tremendous upside for the second half of the season. Get him on your team before the Hard Knocks hype really hits.
Jason Wood: The Falcons thought they had solved the RB conundrum last year by acquiring veteran Steven Jackson. Things didn’t go according to plan as Jackson suffered through a miserable 543-yard (3.5 YPC) season. While Jackson will be given another shot at the starter’s role, history has not been kind to backs with Jackson’s workload. Once they fall off, they don’t rebound. Enter rookie Freeman who, in my mind, is one of the most balanced runners in the draft class. As long as his reputation for being a hard worker and a committed blocker hold true, Freeman could push for playing time immediately and be the full-time starter by midseason.
DeMarco Murray, Dal
Sigmund Bloom: Murray produced at a clip right in line with LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles (minus his massive outburst vs. Oakland) during the fantasy playoffs last year. He will be a primary weapon in an offense that will be involved in more than its share of shootouts. In PPR leagues, Murray will rival McCoy, Charles, and Forte in reception totals with Scott Linehan on the coaching staff. He’s worth every bit of a late first or early second-round pick.
Chad Parsons: Murray is one of the few unquestioned starting running backs in the NFL. Murray is a near-lock for at least 50 receptions in addition with double-digit touchdown upside. He deserves to be in the first round mix, presenting a big value as a second round selection.
Kyle Wachtel: Lead backs under Scott Linehan have 16-game averages of 271 carries and 59 receptions. Murray, who has averaged 4.96 YPC in his career, is poised for RB1 production.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Arian Foster, Hou
Steve Holloway: Arian Foster ranked as RB1, RB4 and RB2 from 2010-2012, before falling back last season as he missed 8 games. The combination of that injury with the uncertainties at the quarterback position has most forecasting down seasons for Texans’ players in general, including Foster. Fitzpatrick should win the quarterback competition and start for the team this year. Even though most consider him a journeyman stop-gap player, the combination of his intelligence and the coaching of O’Brien should produce better production than the Texans had a year ago, and not be a reason to downgrade Foster. A closer review of Foster’s stats from last year reveals that he averaged 4.5 ypc, more than in either2011 and 2012. Head Coach Bill O’Brien has already offered high praise for Foster and many are expecting his receptions to increase this year. Ben Tate departed in free agency and was replaced by Andre Brown, but Foster should continue having the lion’s share of the carries.
Mark Wimer: Arian Foster is healthy; vulture Ben Tate is in Cleveland now; and head coach/offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien is on record that Foster will fill the 'Kevin Faulk' receiver-out-of-the-backfield role in the O'Brien offense on third downs as well as being the featured runner for this team. What's not to like? Foster should bounce back big during 2014. He's a steal at ninth running back off the board.
Frank Gore, SF
James Brimacombe: Gore is currently being way undervalued as he is going off as the 23rd RB on the board. It is true that Gore is getting up there in age and has taken a beating over his NFL career but there still hasn’t been a drop in his production over the past 3 seasons. If anything Gore has been one of the most consistent RB’s in the league averaging 1,183 rushing yards and 8+ touchdowns the past 3 seasons and finishing ranked 12, 11, and 13th in that stretch. He is an excellent RB2 that offers so much value at his current ADP.
Matt Waldman: I see the appeal of arguments to downgrade Gore despite his third consecutive year as no worse than the No.13 fantasy runner. He’s 31 years old, expected to slow down any year, and his team has drafted Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James, Marcus Lattimore, and Carlos Hyde. At least one of them—Hyde or Lattimore—are seen as potential successors to the throne. While Gore is 31, the 49ers back “slowed down” after successive ACL tears—in college. If he were fast, he’d have production worthy of a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Neither Hunter nor James has shown the talent to overtake Gore. Lattimore has to get his burst back and Hyde has to prove he can pass protect at the pro level. Gore might not earn 250-275 carries, but 220-240 and red zone touches with his offensive line still puts him within range of top-15 production.
Jeremy Hill, Cin
Bob Henry: Hill opened up OTAs safely ahead of veteran plugger BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The speculation has already begun that offensive coordinator Hue Jackson will use both he and Gio Bernard in the backfield together at the same time. Both have good hands and receiving skills, while Hill is better equipped for pass protection and handling early down and short yardage running duties. While my colleagues are still projecting Hill for fewer than 120 carries, I’ve already penciled him in for 180-to-200 and I believe his potential to score double digit TDs as a rookie is very real. The Bengals promise to run the ball with Jackson calling the plays and they hand-picked Hill to complement Bernard. There is plenty of room for both backs to be productive. I project Bernard as a low RB1/high RB2 with Hill as a RB3, which means his ADP hasn’t caught up to value and upside yet.
Bob Magaw: Through a quirk of fate, possibly the best RB from the class of 2014 landed square in the same backfield with the top drafted RB from the class of 2013. Perhaps it prompted by new OC Hue Jackson‘s stated intention to field a more robust and potent run game. Hill looks like an ideal complement to the good looking, Brian Westbrook-like, second year all purpose back Giovani Bernard, who will line up as a WR at times. The former LSU star’s 6.9 YPC average last season broke the SEC conference record set by Georgia’s Garrison Hearst over two decades ago. Hill has an unusual mix of size, power, quickness, feet, agility and elusiveness that makes him tough to bring down in the open field and a constant threat to break big plays in the run game. While he immediately replaces “Law Firm”, throw out the numbers put up by his plodding predecessor, as Hill is a vastly superior talent and far more dangerous and explosive weapon in the run game. Bernard put up better than top 20 production as a rookie in a RBBC time share, and Hill has a chance to replicate the feat a year later.
Chris Johnson, NYJ
Andy Hicks: Chris Johnson wore out his welcome in Tennessee and the Jets happily signed him to a 2 year contract. He lands in an ideal situation. His competition for running the ball is adequate, but hardly likely to threaten his playing time, while he has a good offensive line and a running quarterback. He may have lost a step or 2, but is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and a strong, if not explosive runner these days. He has been incredibly durable, playing in every game in which he was available in a 6 year career and will give the Jets a dimension that has been lacking since Curtis Martin retired. He should easily out produce his borderline RB2/Flex ADP.
Steve Holloway: Chris Johnson signed a two-year $8 Million contract with the New York Jets. It doesn’t sound impressive, but that was the largest contract of the 2014 running back market and was for about double of the per year pay that Chris Ivory got with the Jets a year ago. The Jets have a strong offensive line and prefer to run the ball, so even though Johnson may not get as great a percentage of the carries this season, he should get enough to again top 1,000 rushing yards, which he has done in each of his six previous NFL seasons. Johnson is not as fast as he was when he came into the league, but he can still make big plays and will again have an opportunity to catch a lot of passes. He has averaged 45 receptions per year, while Ivory has 5 catches over his four NFL seasons and Bilal Powell is likely to see his role greatly decreased since Johnson joined the Jets. Johnson is sitting out OTAs recovering from a January surgery to repair a torn meniscus, but has missed only one game in his six years in the league.
Lamar Miller, Mia
Jeff Pasquino: Everyone thought that Knowshon Moreno was going to be the starting tailback for the Dolphins this year, but so far it has been Lamar Miller who is running with the first string this offseason. Miller’s ADP has him available very late, and any time you can get the starting tailback for an NFL team after Round 10 it just screams value. You may not like Miller at all, but value is value and he is well worth adding as your third or fourth tailback for your fantasy team this year.
Jason Wood: Miller was a popular breakout candidate in 2013 but a moribund offensive game plan and woeful offensive line derailed those plans. Miller notched 879 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns; and then Miami signed Knowshon Moreno in free agency. Yet, Miller shouldn’t be completely disregarded. The Dolphins offensive line stability can’t help but be better this year, and new OC Bill Lazor believes in the ground game more than many of today’s pass-happy play-callers. Moreno has looked sluggish in mini-camps and one can fairly question whether Moreno was a beneficiary of the league’s most dangerous passing attack (Moreno was rarely the target of opposing defenses).
Bernard Pierce, Bal
Adam Harstad: Pierce will likely open the season as Baltimore’s starter with Ray Rice facing a possible suspension. If Pierce plays well, he could parlay that tryout into a regular gig. Baltimore’s rushing game was atrocious last season, but it’s primed for regression.
Bob Henry: With Ray Rice serving a multi-game suspension to start the season, the door is wide open for Pierce to grab the starting job and never look back. Pierce seems like a natural fit for new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s zone-blocking system with the one-cut-and-go running style. Despite the opportunity in front of Pierce, his ADP continues to linger around RB43 where any risk associated with the pick is vastly outweighed by his potential to emerge as a solid RB2. The Ravens offense will almost certainly take a step forward under Kubiak’s leadership as he has continually produced above the league average in terms of fantasy production out of his RBs.
Ben Tate, Cle
Alex Miglio: He was a hot name after signing with the Cleveland Browns, but Ben Tate has cooled significantly in the ensuing months. A big reason for that is the implied lack of confidence the Browns have in him as a feature back after drafting Terrance West and signing Isaiah Crowell as an undrafted free agent. True, either of those might force their way into significant playing time, but it’s likelier the seasoned veteran with a career average of 4.7 yards per carry will garner the majority of touches.
Mark Wimer: Somebody has to carry the load for the Browns this year. With a rookie QB likely under center and the team's top receiver suspended for most or all of the year, Ben Tate is the guy I think gets handed or tossed the football a LOT - as in 25 times a game. Tate will have truck loads of opportunity in Cleveland this year, and has the talent to transform those opportunities into fantasy points.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Reggie Bush, Det
Mark Wimer: Bush screams value given right now he's going off the running back board at 17th. He had over 1,500 yards combined last year, and the Lions further upgraded their offense during free agency and the NFL draft. Meanwhile, Joique Bell has had a knee surgery for an undefined issue, but has intimated that he may be out until the start of training camp. With Bell out of the picture while Bush builds on his chemistry with Matthew Stafford and company during OTAs, I think Bush could have an even bigger season in his second campaign with the Lions - he should be more comfortable in the system now. I think he should significantly outplay his draft position during 2014.
Steven Jackson, Atl
Matt Waldman: Yeah, yeah, yeah—he’s old and he looked ordinary to some watching him when he was on the field with the Falcons last year. Jackson didn’t look ordinary during the first couple of drives in Week 1 against the Saints. That was the last time he was healthy for the season—a season where the Atlanta offensive line and receiving corps was an absolute mess. The Falcons upgraded its line with the addition of Jake Matthews and Jon Asamoah. A healthy pair of wideouts should also take pressure off the ground game. The reasons Jackson is the RB No.31 on this list is fear-driven—age and injury—when last year had as much to do with injuries to others as much as Jackson.
Rashad Jennings, NYG
David Dodds: This is all about opportunity. I don't believe David Wilson is ready to resume a major role in the Giants backfield any time soon (coming back from neck surgery, and had major fumbling issues before that). The Giants also moved on from Andre Brown. This leave Rashad Jennings as a workhorse back by default.
Tre Mason, StL
Jeff Tefertiller: Rookie Tre Mason is a decent lottery pick at the end of the draft. Zac Stacy is a volume back who is replaceable. The talented Mason will have a role in the passing game early in the season and a chance to be the lead back by midseason.
Ryan Mathews, SD
Steve Holloway: Mathews remained healthy all of 2013, for the first time in his career posting career highs in carries, yards rushing, and tied for career high in TDs. His receptions did fall as Danny Woodhead was the primary pass catcher out of the backfield. The Chargers offense really changed mid-stream last year and that is where Mathews has the opportunity to excel this year. Over the team’s first 12 games, Mathews averaged 14 rushes per game. The last four games, the Chargers ramped up their running game and he averaged 27 carries per game, going over 100 yards in three games and rushing for 99 in the other. He scored almost half of his TDs and caught 1/3 of his season’s receptions in those four games. Mathew’s success will depend on the Chargers leaning more heavily on the rushing game as they did down the stretch last year, when they played their best football.
Darren McFadden, Oak
Andy Hicks: There is no doubting that Darren McFadden is an unreliable fantasy option, but for probably the first time in his career will be value in fantasy leagues. He has a litany of leg injuries and rarely manages to string more than a few games together, but for his current price he is worth the risk. His ADP is currently the 37th running back off the board and his competition for playing time in Maurice Jones-Drew is 18 months older and has shown definite signs of being finished or very close to it. McFadden may only be useful for a few weeks, but at his current price he stands a very good chance of out producing his ADP.
Knowshon Moreno, Mia
Heath Cummings: I don't expect Moreno to match last year's numbers but I do think he's a lot better than Lamar Miller. One of the reasons for Miller's struggled was the terrible blocking in front of him but the Dolphins have made significant improvements to the offensive line. Sure, Moreno won't have Peyton Manning to distract opposing defenses from him but I do see this as an improving offense in Miami, and one that is more than capable of producing a mid-level RB2.
Bishop Sankey, Ten
Andy Hicks: Rookie running backs are always a risk, but sometimes they land in a perfect situation. Such is the case with Bishop Sankey. Last years starter, Chris Johnson, has moved on and the only other back of note is the pedestrian Shonn Greene. Greene is 29 and coming off 2 knee surgeries in 12 months. Sankey will need to be able to pass protect and at least demonstrate he is worthy of playing, but it would be a surprise to not see him start on the opening day. At his current ADP there are few if any backs who are likely to exceed 200 carries and be the dominant runner on their team. If Sankey can prove he is more than average then there is only upside to those numbers.
Shane Vereen, NE
Jeff Haseley: It's a foregone conclusion that Shane Vereen is going to be a big contributor in the passing game for the Patriots. He averaged 5.8 receptions per game last year in eight games and that number jumped up to 8.2 when he and Rob Gronkowski were in the lineup at the same time (four games). I also expect to see Vereen play more of a role as rusher this season. It all points to a big year, especially in PPR leagues.
DeAngelo Williams, Car
Adam Harstad: Look, he’s old, he’s stuck in a timeshare, and his quarterback will vulture all of the short-yardage touchdowns. There’s not a lot to get excited about with DeAngelo Williams. But he’s extremely talented, has one of the best ypc averages in NFL history, and most importantly, he’s finished 26th, 23rd, and 22nd in his last three seasons. An injury to Tolbert, Stewart, or Newton will send his value through the roof. I understand not loving him, but he’s currently being drafted behind not one but TWO Oakland RBs. That’s value.
Danny Woodhead, SD
Ryan Hester: What does a little guy have to do to get some respect? In 2013, Woodhead finished 12th among running backs in PPR scoring leagues. Still being drafted after the 30th spot in such leagues this season, Woodhead continues to be a player in whom almost no one sees value. A 60-reception floor at the running back position is very valuable in PPR leagues. Only six backs had at least 60 catches in 2013. Those players were Jamaal Charles (RB1/259 rush attempts), Matt Forte (RB2 / 288), Knowshon Moreno (RB4 / 242), Woodhead (RB12 / 106), Pierre Thomas (RB16 / 147), and Darren Sproles (RB23/ 53). Throw out Sproles due to the outlier in rush attempts, and a 60-catch running back is a bona-fide every-week starter – and likely an RB1 in a 12-team league.