A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 9 Votes
Jay Cutler, Chi
Sigmund Bloom: Quality of receivers, 2013 game logs, head coach/offensive philosophy and talent all point to Cutler being a near clone of Matthew Stafford in his outlook this year. The main difference is that you can get Cutler five rounds later. Cutler especially makes sense in six point per pass touchdown and big game/play bonus leagues.
James Brimacombe: The Bears offense was very exciting last season and has potential to produce just as much or if not more in year two of Marc Trestman's offensive scheme. Cutler has two of the very best WR's in the game in Marshall and Jeffery and if he can play a full 16 games will easily reach top 10 QB status with a chance of cracking the top 5. Based on weapons alone Cutler has to be one of your top candidates if you are playing to wait on QB game.
Matt Harmon: The Bears starter provides the perfect late round quarterback target. He has an excellent offensive mastermind and quarterback guru calling the shots in Marc Trestman. Cutler will be throwing to the twin towers of the emerging Alshon Jeffery and his best mate, Brandon Marshall. Chicago also boasts more than capable complimentary threats with Matt Forte, Martellus Bennett and perhaps Santonio Holmes. That’s a top-five NFL supporting cast at the hand’s of one of the leagues more gifted passers. Provided he stays healthy, Cutler is a near lock for a top-10 fantasy quarterback season. His low and safe ADP makes him an easy call to bet on.
Ryan Hester: Add together the statistics of Marc Trestman’s quarterbacks last year, and you’d have a fantasy point total that would be good for QB10. Trestman and his offense remain, and Cutler is far more talented than Josh McCown. Cutler should be going ahead of Tony Romo, Colin Kaepernick, and Cam Newton. He has three touchdown potential every time he steps on the field with his fantastic weapons of Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Matt Forte.
Stephen Holloway: Jay Cutler is normally not highly regarded due to his propensity for throwing interceptions and the number of missed games. However, in 2013 the Bears ranked #5 in passing yards, while ranking 16th in passing attempts. Cutler had the second highest completion percentage of his career with 63.2%. Cutler will be in his second season with Trestman, so continued improvement in completion percentage and TDs is expected. The Bears have awesome receiving talent and were ranked among league leaders last year, including Brandon Marshall who finished 5th among wide receivers in receptions, Alshon Jeffery who finished 10th, Martellus Bennett 8th among tight ends, and Matt Forte 3rd among running backs. Trestman’s system and coaching combined with the Bears’ receiving talent should propel Cutler to career numbers if he can stay healthy. Amazingly, when you consider only even numbered years, Cutler has missed only 2 games since taking over as starter in week 13 of his rookie campaign.
Ari Ingel: Many Fantasy owners have been burned by Cutler in the past due to his gun slinging ways and his propensity for getting injured. But Cutler’s groin injury last year was fluky and he has never been much of a runner, so injury concerns should be minimal especially compared to many of the top QB’s in the league these days. The gun slinging has also been put in check, with Cutler now being asked to throw to specific designed reads as opposed to being left to his old free wheeling ways. Cutler has one of the biggest arms in the league and his supporting cast is also arguably the most talented in the league, with beastly receivers Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Santonio Holmes and Martellus Bennett in addition to pass catching back Matt Forte. If you combine Cutler and Josh McCown’s stats from 2013, that would equate to 4,281 yards, 32 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, good enough to make Cutler a top 5 QB. With another year in Trestman’s system, there is no reason Cutler shouldn’t finish in the top 7.
Chad Parsons: Jay Cutler at QB15 is a steal. The offensive pieces are in place for a second straight season and Cutler has three of the better red zone threats in the passing game. Cutler is one of the reasons to wait until at least 10 quarterbacks are off the board in 2014 drafts.
Jeff Pasquino: The Chicago offense is poised to explode this year, and Jay Cutler could be a Top 5 quarterback as a direct result. With arguably the best wide receiver duo in the game today (Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery), Cutler has several top notch receivers at his disposal. With tight end Martellus Bennett as a big target and Matt Forte catching plenty of short passes, the Bears produced Top 5 fantasy numbers at the quarterback position (combining Cutler and Josh McNown). If Cutler stays healthy, he could be a huge value to any fantasy roster.
Jason Wood: In his first season with Marc Trestman, Cutler's stats in the ten games when he took the majority of the snaps would have translated to 4148 passing yards and over 30 passing touchdowns over a full season. With a second year alongside Trestman and all of their weapons still intact, a big campaign is ahead.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Russell Wilson, Sea
Heath Cummings: Wilson has actually seen an upgrade in weapons with the addition of Percy Harvin, but he’s being drafted to finish five spots below where he did in 2013. Wilson’s been a QB1 his first two years in the league and there’s good reason to believe that Pete Carroll will loosen the reigns again in his third year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wilson rose to QB7 or QB8 but I’d be shocked if he fell this far.
David Dodds: He finished the year as QB9 last year despite Percy Harvin contributing exactly one catch for the whole year. His WRs are better in 2014. His offensive line appears to be better. He has a better grasp of the calls, when to scramble, and his mechanics are better than ever. So why no love for the Super Bowl winning QB? Let the rest of the world fall asleep with more expensive options, Russell Wilson is bargain priced below his lowest floor projections.
Adam Harstad: Wilson is another player whose value has only fallen further since I called him undervalued in July. Wilson ranked 11th and 9th in his first two seasons even without the aid of the electric Percy Harvin. With Harvin back and Wilson continuing to develop, Seattle will route more and more of their offense through Wilson’s arm. And, of course, his rushing production is especially valuable when most fantasy leagues reward it at least twice as much as passing production.
Kyle Wachtel: Over the past two seasons, Seattle has attempted less passes than any other team in the NFL. In spite of that, Wilson has finished top-twelve at the position in each of those years. If anything, the Seahawks will begin to open up the offense in his third year and so the past two seasons can be viewed as his floor with the potential for even more upside.
Matt Waldman: Conventional wisdom on the Seahawks offense is that it's a run-heavy unit. Last year, the Seahawks were far more balanced between run and pass than the false characterization. Wilson took significant steps forward as a quarterback despite playing behind a battered offensive line and neither of its opening day starters at wide receiver. Fast forward to 2014 and Wilson has a healthy line and healthy Harvin. Look for Wilson to produce closer to the top 5 at his position rather than the top 10.
Jason Wood: I understand the hesitation to draft Wilson as your starting fantasy quarterback. After all, the Seahawks just won a Super Bowl thanks to a punishing run game and stifling defense. Seattle’s 420 passing attempts don’t leave much room for prolific passing numbers. I would counter with two points. One, Wilson has ranked 11th and 9th in his first two seasons, in spite of the limited pass attempts. Two, Wilson has shown elite underlying metrics (on a per attempt basis) and there is historical precedent to suggest Wilson’s control of the offense will continue to increase. If the Seahawks throw the ball 500 times, they’re still toward the bottom of the league but suddenly Wilson has top 6 potential combining his per-attempt fantasy production with his rushing abilities.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Colin Kaepernick, SF
James Brimacombe: Kaepernick has two back to back years of deep playoff experience and a loaded offense in Crabtree, Boldin, Johnson, Davis, Gore, and Hyde. He is going to have plenty of opportunities to out perform his current ADP and the 49ers are a team that might have to rely a little more on their offense this year as their defense has a few injuries. Kaepernick also has the threat of running that can give your fantasy team an instant edge if he is cut loose.
Matt Harmon: The young 49ers passer is another player you can get in the ninth, tenth or sometimes even the eleventh round. Colin Kaepernick should take a nice step forward this season. San Francisco indicated they wanted to put more on his shoulders by their offseason acquisitions. They added an excellent third receiver in Stevie Johnson by trade, and utility speedster Bruce Ellington in the draft. Kaepernick will have more targets to throw to than he did last season. Some of the options he has in 2013 were just dreadful. Kaepernick also has the ability to take over any game with his rushing ability. When going with a “wait on quarterback” approach having a guy who regularly picks up added running yards is a plus. Don’t forget, this will just be Colin Kaepernick’s second full year as a starter. He was considered a raw player coming out of college, and has still been very good. We could be at the door step of his fantasy explosion.
Bob Magaw: For too much of last season, while Michael Crabtree rehabbed a ruptured Achilles tendon, Kaepernick had no WR to target after Anquan Boldin. In 2014, not only is Crabtree more than a year removed from his injury, Boldin was retained, former Bill Steve Johnson (averaged 80-1,000-8 in his last three 16 game campaigns, 2010-2012) became the second WR with Boldin in as many years to be acquired by trade during the draft, and two sport star Bruce Ellington is a promising fourth round member of the good looking WR class of 2014. If the 49ers take a step back on defense (absent star LBs Navorro Bowman and Aldon Smith at least part of the season) as seemingly every NFC West team has improved on offense, more may be asked of Kaepernick. He hasn’t even started two full seasons, is well positioned to set career highs across the board in the passing game, and on the bonus plan, has one of the three best sets of wheels for a QB in the game.
Cam Newton, Car
Heath Cummings: I was down on Newton earlier this summer as well, not because of him but because of his weapons. It took a lot of information, but I’m finally starting to believe that Kelvin Benjamin could really work in Carolina as a rookie. Newton has never finished worse than QB6 and his weapons have basically been Steve Smith, Greg Olsen and his legs. Two of those three are still in Carolina; if Benjamin can be as good as an aging Smith then Newton should be fine as a mid-range QB1.
Adam Harstad: Since I wrote about Newton in our last undervalued players list, his ADP has fallen even further. It remains true that in many scoring systems, Newton has never in his career finished worse than QB4. Last year in standard FBGs scoring, Newton scored two points fewer than Matt Stafford. Not two per game, two total for the entire season. The early success of Kelvin Benjamin should have Newton’s ranking trending up, not down. It’s hard to fathom Newton falling this far when most fantasy leagues give more twice as many points for rushing production as passing production.
Jeff Haseley: The strong play of rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin in the preseason has caused me to elevate Cam Netwton's ranking into the Top 10. Word is getting out that the Panthers receiving corps is looking better than they were last year. In that regard, Newton deserves a bump - back into the Top 10.
Tony Romo, Dal
Ryan Hester: Romo has a fine set of weapons and an improving offensive line. His team should be involved in shootouts almost every week. He should be getting drafted ahead of Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton, but he currently is not. The Dallas offense should be a fireworks show in 2014.
Bob Magaw: The Cowboys are quietly building an outstanding young OL, selecting Pro Bowl LT Tyron Smith, center Travis Frederick and guard Zack Martin during the first round in three of the last four drafts. Despite the beatings routinely administered by defenses over the years that led to recent back surgery (hopefully an increasingly receding image in the rear view mirror while still in his relative prime), Romo has strung together the most consistent three year stretch of his career, albeit with only back-to-back-to-back 8-8 seasons to show for it, sandwiching a 4,900+ yard, 28 TD campaign in 2012 between identical 31 TD/10 INT seasons in 2011 and 2013 that averaged 4,000 yards. WR Dez Bryant has top 5 talent, ageless TE Jason Witten continues to play at a high level and promising second year WR Terrance Williams is an upgrade at this point over the since departed, chronically hamstrung Miles Austin. One of the biggest causes for an optimistic projection is the addition of new passing game coordinator Scott Linehan, who oversaw Matthew Stafford’s prolific passing volume outburst the past half decade in Detroit.
Jason Wood: Tony Romo’s middle name has to be Dangerfield because he gets no respect. This is a passer that ranks among the all-time greats in yards per attempt, completion rate and TD percentage; otherwise known as the metrics that most matter for fantasy productivity. Romo has been a Top 8 fantasy quarterback (on a per game basis) almost every season as a starter, yet he’s being drafted 12th this year. Makes no sense, particularly when you consider new play-caller Scott Linehan has gotten career seasons out of Matthew Stafford, Marc Bulger and Daunte Culpepper. Imagine what he can do with a legitimately elite passer?
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Tom Brady, NE
Steve Buzzard: The 2013 season was an unusual year for Brady. He lost all of his wide receivers and Gronkowski for parts of the year. His YPA dropped by about a yard as compared to the last 4 year average. Additionally the Pats situational neutral pass ratio dropped from an average of 65% all the way down to 59%. Yet he still ranked as QB13 on the year. Each of those stats should return to normal with a healthier supporting cast.
Stephen Holloway: After finishing as QB7, QB5, QB5, and QB3 from 09-12, Brady slipped back to QB13 in 2013 as the Patriots lost the majority of their receivers from the 2012 squad and few of their remaining receivers stayed healthy. Edelman was the only one that played every game. Vereen missed 8 games, Amendola, Dobson, and Thompkins all missed 4, and Gronkowski missed 9. All of them return and the law of averages should have them healthier this season. Brady’s completion percentage, yards per attempt and TDs all fell off last year, but look for those stats to climb as Brady and the Patriots offense bounces back.
Andy Dalton, Cin
Heath Cummings: The first three years of Dalton’s career look like this: QB16 -> QB12 -> QB3. So of course he’s being drafted as QB17 heading into year four. Dalton is a flawed quarterback with outstanding weapons in a new offensive system that is unlikely to reach the heights he did in 2013. That being said two of his best weapons are improving (Eifert and Bernard) and he still has one of the best young receivers in the game. Dalton is by far the most undervalued quarterback once again.
Andy Hicks: Fortunately the majority of fantasy leagues do not include the NFL playoffs, but that is what is in a lot of fantasy owners minds when they cast their eye over Andy Dalton. He has improved every year in the regular season and his new contract is a basically a pay to play one. His 3rd place fantasy season last year was in all likelihood a fluke, but he can still produce starting quarterback numbers for the price of an 11th or 12th round pick. Of course he has risk this year, but Dalton has a solid group of receivers, running backs and offensive line at his disposal and is in an excellent position to be fantasy quality in the regular season. Draft him as your backup and you’ll be sitting pretty.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
Bob Magaw: Despite the Steelers expending one starting WR after another like organizational bursts from a discharging machine gun (including first rounders Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes and third rounders Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders), Roethlisberger keeps shrugging off the personnel attrition like he does with hapless pass rushers tasked with putting him on the ground. He is a star maker for receivers, and last year it was Antonio Brown’s turn in a massive break out season (110 receptions led the NFL and 1,499 receiving yards were second). Reloaded with WR ammo in the form of young speed merchants Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant as well as long time New Orleans third down ace Lance Moore, gun slinger Big Ben remains armed and extremely dangerous to fantasy opponents.
Jeff Pasquino: The Steelers have been becoming more and more of a passing team, and Ben Roethlisberger has benefited from that change in offensive scope. Roethlisberger threw 28 touchdown passes last year and finished in the Top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks in 2013. Now he is available as a high end QB2 with improvements at receiver with the addition of former Saint Lance Moore and rookie Martavis Bryant to compliment Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton. With a modest running attack in Pittsburgh (Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount), Roethlisberger is poised for another Top 10 fantasy season.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Nick Foles, Phi
Sigmund Bloom: If there’s a QB who crash the Peyton/Brees/Rodgers elite tier this year, it’s Foles. In fact, he already has. Foles was one of the only QBs to be within shouting distance of Peyton Manning last year. Even though he lost DeSean Jackson, he gained Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Matthews, Darren Sproles, and a year of development from Zach Ertz. Foles also has one of the best offensive lines in the league, and oh yeah, Chip Kelly. If you don’t want to go in early but still want to have a potentially big advantage at QB, Foles is your man.
Robert Griffin III, Was
Jeff Haseley: I like what I see in Robert Griffin as he prepares to enter his third year in the league and second year after suffering a major knee injury. Washington has surrounded him with receiving weapons in Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed. Head Coach Jay Gruden will have the offense buzzing and Griffin will be a key component of the resurgence. Washington believes the knee injury is behind him. If he can remain healthy, he should compete for a Top 5 finish.
Jake Locker, Ten
Phil Alexander: Locker is currently being drafted after EJ Manuel according to our ADP data, which makes very little sense to me. He scored multiple TDs in four of the six games he played last season, consistently chipped in fantasy points with his legs, and now finds himself in an improved situation. New Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt has made a habit of getting the most out of his QBs, most recently helping revive Philip Rivers’ career in San Diego. With a very good offensive line and a talented young receiving corps, including Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright, and Bishop Sankey out of the backfield, Locker possesses high-end QB2 upside.
Andrew Luck, Ind
Jeff Pasquino: It might be difficult to consider aTop 5 quarterback underrated, but I can easily see Luck finishing as either the second or third best fantasy quarterback this season. The Colts have a terrible ground game with Trent Richardson, which makes the Colts a pass first offense. Luck has even more weapons this year, adding Hakeem Nicks (Giants) to an improving T.Y. Hilton and getting both Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen back from injury. Considering that Luck can run in a few touchdowns himself (nine in two seasons), has never missed a start and gets a soft schedule (AFC South and NFC East), I can see Luck topping 30 touchdowns and throwing for well over 4,000 yards.
Eli Manning, NYG
Stephen Holloway: Eli Manning and the entire Giants offense underperformed last year, with Manning throwing a career high 27 interceptions and dropping below 7.0 ypa for the first time since 2008. Manning had ankle surgery in the off-season, but looks to be healthy and is said to be energized by the new offense led by offensive coordinator Bob McAdoo. Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and 1st round rookie Odell Beckham, Jr. are all excellent fits for the new offense which depends on short routes and higher completion percentages with opportunity to run after the catch. The Giants also added Rashad Jennings, an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Over the past five seasons, Manning has averaged 60.1% completions, 4,140 yards and 26 TDs. This season, he increases his completion percentage and easily throws for more than 4,000 yards and 25 TDs.
Peyton Manning, Den
Jason Wood: How can the #1 ranked quarterback be on my undervalued list? Because he’s being drafted just outside of the first round and suffers from an unending lack of appreciation for the value of a truly elite passer. Yes, I know fantasy ‘pundits’ love to preach waiting on quarterback. But did you realize that Manning was far and away the most valuable fantasy player last year and was on more winning teams than any other player? The league’s best offense returns with an even better receiving corps (Decker leaves but Sanders and Latimer arrive) and Manning has a chip on his shoulder after last year’s Super Bowl drubbing. Manning could regress by 20% and still be the most valuable fantasy player this year; he should be a serious contender for a top five choice in any league format.
Philip Rivers, SD
Andy Hicks: Philip Rivers while not turning in a career year, at least demonstrated that he is a good quarterback who deserves to be rated much higher by the fantasy community with the arrival of the Mike McCoy regime. His ranking of 5th among passers last year was no fluke and there is every chance that the Chargers offense solidifies and becomes more reliable. Rivers has a wide array of solid receivers and a group of productive running backs. His current ADP is reflective of guys with more upside ahead of him, but by the end of the year Rivers should be a reliable starting quarterback at the price of a backup.
Matt Ryan, Atl
Steve Buzzard: The Falcons will continue to be one of the most pass happy teams in the league. In fact I have them a full 2% ahead of the rest of the league. This is due to their offensive mindset, playing 11 games in domes and all of their games with current Vegas odds within 6 points. Finally Ryan is basically adding two elite wide receivers this year if White and Jones can stay healthy.
Andy Hicks: Matt Ryan was on a steady incline towards becoming an elite fantasy quarterback, until last season. He dropped in touchdowns, yardage and increased his interceptions. Everything that could have gone wrong last year in Atlanta, did. The running game was supposed to receive a boost with the arrival of Steven Jackson. He got injured. Julio Jones was supposed to confirm his arrival into the elite receivers. He got injured. In turn Ryan was forced to make plays while the leagues worst running offense struggled to move the ball. This year there should be a little more equilibrium in the offense and in turn Matt Ryan will produce better numbers and should return to that steady incline towards the fantasy elite.
Ryan Tannehill, Mia
Jeff Haseley: If I told you Ryan Tannehill had more touchdown passes (24) than Andrew Luck (23) and was 90 yards shy of 4,000 yards passing, would you rank him as the 18th fantasy quarterback? Still not convinced, he's turning the corner? The Dolphins new Offensive Coordinator, Bill Lazor is more committed to a faster paced offense, the offensive line is improved and the weapons have gotten better. Look out for Tannehill this year.