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A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
PlayerS Receiving 7 Votes
Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
Sigmund Bloom: Roethlisberger was a solid QB1 in the second half of the 2013 season, with more no huddle and freedom for him mixed into the offense. There’s no indication that trend will slow down in 2014, as the Steelers will get a much healthier Heath Miller and a newly minted big, speedy target in fourth-round pick Martavis Bryant. He’s a safe low QB1 that you can get at a QB2 price.
David Dodds: He threw for 16 TDs with just 5 interceptions in the last 8 games of 2013. He also recorded 5 games where he threw for over 340 passing yards. In a year where the QB position is very deep, Ben is exactly the reason it pays to be patient at the position. The offensive line should be much better (having given up the 5th most sacks last year after the Pouncey injury). At his current ADP, he is all upside.
Bob Henry: As the 17th quarterback off the board, Roethlisberger has the proven ability to deliver solid QB1 value on a week to week basis. He’s arguably the top QB value on the board for anyone looking to eschew the top QBs on draft day and go with the late round QB draft strategy. If the second half of last season was any indication of what we could see in 2014, you’ll be rewarded nicely. The Steelers expect to use more no-huddle offense after Roethlisberger and the offense took flight late last year once Todd Haley got out of the way. Despite losing Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery, the Steelers have younger, capable players ready to replace them in Markus Wheaton, rookie Martavis Bryant and veteran newcomer Lance Moore. They also have a healthier Heath Miller, now a year removed from ACL surgery and one of Ben’s favorite red zone targets.
Bob Magaw: Despite the Steelers expending one starting WR after another like organizational bursts from a discharging machine gun (including first rounders Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes and third rounders Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders), Roethlisberger keeps shrugging off the personnel attrition like he does to hapless pass rushers tasked with putting him on the ground. He is a star maker for receivers, and last year it was Antonio Brown’s turn in a massive break out season (110 receptions led the NFL and 1,499 receiving yards were second). Reloaded with WR ammo in the form of young speed merchants Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant as well as long time New Orleans third down ace Lance Moore, gun slinger Big Ben remains armed and extremely dangerous to fantasy opponents.
Jeff Pasquino: The Steelers have been becoming more and more of a passing team, and Ben Roethlisberger has benefited from that change in offensive scope. Roethlisberger threw 28 touchdown passes last year and finished in the Top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks in 2013. Now he is available as a high end QB2 with improvements at receiver with the addition of former Saint Lance Moore and rookie Martavis Bryant to compliment Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton. With a modest running attack in Pittsburgh (LeVeon Bell, LeGarrette Blount), Roethlisberger is poised for another Top 10 fantasy season.
Matt Waldman: The No.17 fantasy QB on this list, Roethlisberger was the No.8 QB in 2013 and even better between Weeks 9-17 when he threw 20 touchdowns in 9 games. The Steelers will be using more no-huddle looks this year and the addition of the savvy Lance Moore along with young rising talents like Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant could keep Roethlisberger’s production high enough for him to be twice as good as his current projection on this list.
Jason Wood: Roethlisberger has been a top 12 fantasy quarterback in each of the last three years (on a per game basis), yet is being drafted toward the latter end of QB2s in 12-team leagues. That’s puzzling when you consider his play has improved of late (his completion rate has risen four consecutive seasons) and his supporting cast looks better this year with the return of Heath Miller, and the additions of Lance Moore and Martavis Bryant. Perhaps the semi-public spat between OC Todd Haley and Roethlisberger continues to muddy the waters, but it’s clear from studying the game tape that their working relationship is on solid footing. If you opt to wait on quarterback on draft day, Roethlisberger is a perfect target.
Russell Wilson, Sea
Sigmund Bloom: Plenty of eventually great quarterbacks were eased into larger roles in the offense as their careers got rolling. Wilson will only be more involved as a passer this year, and he showed more boldness as a runner in 2013. Wilson had a run of six straight multi-TD passing games in 2013, and he could be ready to iron out the low points in his weekly profile. He’s easy to like as one of the last QB1s off of the board.
Heath Cummings: I was maybe more surprised by Wilson's ADP than I was any other player. In his second year in the league Wilson finished as the QB9 overall and now adds Percy Harvin to the mix. It's true the Wilson doesn't get to throw the ball as often as most of the elite quarterbacks in the game but his efficiency and production on the ground make that a mute point. If Pete Carroll were to take the reigns off this year (and I don't believe he will) Wilson could easily vault into the top five fantasy quarterbacks. Even if Wilson just matches his modest statistical improvement from last year we should be looking at a valuable week-to-week starter.
Cian Fahey: In spite of his relatively limited role on offense for the Seattle Seahawks during the 2013 playoffs, quarterback Russell Wilson should have a big year in 2014. Wilson played phenomenal football up until Week 13 of the regular season, but his production was limited because he was playing behind a very ineffective offensive line and because his team was constantly playing with a lead in the fourth quarter. With a hopefully more healthy offensive line and a better supporting cast of receiving options, Wilson has all the tools to set himself up for a breakout fantasy season.
Adam Harstad: Wilson ranked 11th and 9th in his first two seasons, even without the aid of the electric Percy Harvin. With Harvin back, Lynch reportedly waffling on his NFL future, and Wilson continuing to develop, Seattle will route more and more of their offense through Wilson’s arm. And, of course, his rushing production is especially valuable when most fantasy leagues reward it at least twice as much as passing production.
Bob Henry: At his current QB13 ADP, Wilson is being drafted at or even below his “floor”. Despite having attempts the fewest passes in the league, Wilson has consistently delivered QB1 value in his first two seasons. His ability to create big plays with his legs, arm and his strong mental makeup, Wilson is about as safe as it gets at this point in the draft. If the Seahawks defense slips at all, or their vaunted running game loses a step, Wilson’s value only goes up with more passing attempts meaning more opportunities. The loss of Golden Tate is more than offset by the return of Percy Harvin and the Seahawks added a pair of young, but talented receivers later in the draft that seem like great fits for what this offense likes to do.
Chad Parsons: Wilson being valued outside of QB1 territory speaks both to the perception of the conservative Seattle offense as well as the depth of the quarterback position. Wilson has finished as QB11 and QB9 (Footballguys scoring) in his first two seasons. In 2014 Wilson is expected to have a healthy Percy Harvin out of the gate. Wilson’s rushing ability (more than 1,000 yards in his career) is an underrated boost to his weekly upside.
Matt Waldman: Entering his third year, Wilson has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback for the past two years. The fact that he’s No.13 on this list appears reasonable if you’re only looking at where Wilson finished the past two years. But I like context with my lists, don’t you? Here’s a little something to chew on: Wilson had a receiving talent the caliber of Percy Harvin for all of one game in the past 32 regular season contests. Remember when Wilson was the No.2 fantasy QB for almost half of the 2012 season? Yes, it’s “run, run, and run some more” in Seattle, but 57 total touchdowns to 19 interceptions without the likes of Harvin encourages me to believe Wilson will still be a value as the No.13 QB off some draft boards.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Jay Cutler, Chi
Sigmund Bloom: Cutler will pilot a top passing offense that is set up for him to churn out 250+/2 TD games routinely. No QB has a better set of top wide receivers, and Cutler also benefits from having a running back who is also a terrific receiver in Matt Forte. I would feel just fine trotting him out as my starting fantasy quarterback week 1 against the Jairus Byrd-less Bills pass defense in Soldier Field as one of my two QBBC options.
James Brimacombe: It has always been a hard sell to list Jay Cutler as a QB1 in the fantasy football circles. He often shows flashes of brilliance on the field but he also equally shows flashes of frustration and inconsistency. Injuries are often in play with Cutler as well, as he has an offensive line that has struggled to keep him upright over the years. There has been some changes in Chicago recently as they have vowed to improve their offensive line via the draft and they have become a true passing team with the emergence of Alshon Jeffery. Add in one of the best WR’s in the game with Brandon Marshall and a star RB in Matt Forte who can catch anything out of the backfield and you have a Jay Cutler with plenty of weapons and one that has top 10 potential at the position.
Cian Fahey: Brandon Marshall is still in his prime. Alshon Jeffery is about to enter his. Martellus Bennett remains a matchup problem, while Matt Forte is one of the best receiving options out of the backfield in the whole league. A strong and relatively young offensive line that should grow together and a head coach who understands how to get the most out of the quarterback position. All the pieces are in place around Jay Cutler for him to have a massive fantasy season, he just needs to stay healthy and sustain his consistency.
Steve Holloway: Jay Cutler has typically has not been highly regarded due to his propensity for throwing interceptions and missing games. However, in 2013 the Bears ranked #5 in passing yards, while ranking 16th in passing attempts. Cutler had the second highest completion percentage of his career with 63.2%. Cutler will be in his second season with Trestman, so continued improvement in completion percentage and TDs should be possible. The Bears have awesome receiving talent including Brandon Marshall who finished 5th among wide receivers in receptions, Alshon Jeffery who finished 10th, Martellus Bennett 8th among tight ends, and Matt Forte 3rd among running backs. Trestman’s system combined his coaching and the Bears’ receiving talent should provide Cutler the opportunity for career numbers if he can stay healthy. Amazingly, when you consider only even numbered years, he has missed only 2 games since taking over as starter in week 13 of his rookie campaign.
Jeff Pasquino: The Chicago offense is poised to explode this year, and Jay Cutler could be a Top 5 quarterback as a direct result. With arguably the best wide receiver duo in the game today (Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery), Cutler has several top notch receivers at his disposal. With tight end Martellus Bennett as a big target and Matt Forte catching plenty of short passes, the Bears produced Top 5 fantasy numbers at the quarterback position (combining Cutler and Josh McNown). If Cutler stays healthy, he could be a huge value to any fantasy roster.
Jeff Tefertiller: In year one under coach Trestman, Jay Cutler and former teammate Josh McCown combined for the third highest quarterback points in fantasy leagues. Expect improvement in year two. The Bears offense is full of weapons and will put up enough points for Cutler to finish as a Top 5 fantasy passer this year if he can remain healthy.
PLAYERS RECEIVING 4 VOTES
Andy Dalton, Cin
Heath Cummings: It feels like I may have to beat this drum for the entirety of Dalton's career. Last year he surprised even me by finishing as the QB3 overall, but no one should have been surprised that he was a top-12 quarterback. He's in the perfect situation, on a team loaded with weapons. Giovani Bernard's ability after the catch only makes things easier on Dalton and A.J. Green is still one of the best young receivers in the game. Dalton is exactly the type of quarterback that has made the late round QB strategy so popular. If he plays 16 games there is no reason to believe he won't post his third consecutive QB1 season.
Andy Hicks: Fortunately the majority of fantasy leagues do not include the NFL playoffs, but that is what is in a lot of fantasy owners minds when they cast their eye over Andy Dalton. He has improved every year in the regular season and in his 4th year faces a crucial junction in his career. His 3rd place fantasy season last year was in all likelihood a fluke, but he can still produce starting quarterback numbers for the price of an 11th or 12th round pick. Of course he has risk this year with the Bengals signing Jason Campbell and drafting A.J. McCarron to have a backup plan should Dalton fail to lift the team. Dalton has a solid group of receivers, running backs and offensive line at his disposal and is in an excellent position to be fantasy quality in the regular season. Draft him as your backup and you’ll be sitting pretty.
Alex Miglio: It’s a bit mind-boggling to see last year’s third-best fantasy-scoring quarterback—a 26-year-old entering his fourth season throwing to an elite receiver—being completely overlooked. This is a guy who threw for 4,293 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2013. Andy Dalton might not be a sexy name, but he is quite the value heading into the 2014 season. Sure, “Bad Andy” shows up from time to time, but hopefully those dud games will come less often. He is the perfect quarterback-by-committee or best-ball value candidate, a guy who is liable to explode or implode on any given Sunday.
Mark Wimer: Honestly, I have no clue why everyone seems to be down on Andy Dalton. He has one of the top wide receivers in the NFL to throw to (A.J. Green) and a fine #2 wideout (Marvin Jones). He enjoys two quality pass-catching tight ends (Jermaine Gresham, Tyler Eifert) and has a quality pass-catching running back in the backfield (Giovani Bernard). Dalton is surrounded with fine talents, and fantasy owners shouldn't care about his playoff record as most leagues finish in Week 16 of the regular season. He finished in third place among quarterbacks last season behind Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, for heavens' sake! Offensive Coordinator Hue Jackson will adapt to the talent on this team and make the most of it.
Colin Kaepernick, SF
Ryan Hester: Last season was supposed to be a breakout year for Kaepernick, but his performance was spotty and inconsistent. A lack of weapons and a rugged, defensive-minded division can have that effect on a quarterback. However, 2014 brings the return of Michael Crabtree for a full season and the acquisitions of Steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd to join Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. Also, San Francisco’s NFC West foes placed an emphasis on offense this offseason and could be a bit more wide-open in 2014, allowing for quarterbacks of traditionally run-based, defensive-minded teams (like Kaepernick and Seattle’s Russell Wilson) to attempt more passes. Even if the offensive focus of the division doesn’t turn into more high-scoring games, Kaepernick’s natural running ability gives him the ceiling of a top quarterback in any given game, regardless of opponent.
Bob Magaw: For too much of last season, while Michael Crabtree rehabbed a ruptured Achilles tendon, Kaepernick had no WR to target after Anquan Boldin. In 2014, not only is Crabtree more than a year removed from his injury, Boldin was retained and former Bill Stevie Johnson (averaged 80-1,000-8 in his last three 16 game campaigns, 2010-2012) became the second WR with Boldin in as many years to be acquired by trade during the draft. If the 49ers take a step back on defense (absent star LBs Navorro Bowman and Aldon Smith at least part of the season) as seemingly every NFC West team has improved on offense, more may be asked of Kaepernick. He hasn’t even started two full seasons, is primed to set career highs across the board in the passing game, and on the bonus plan, has one of the three best sets of wheels for a QB in the game.
Alex Miglio: It seemed that Colin Kaepernick was on his way to a special fantasy season after his Week 1 super nova. The nova quickly cooled, however, as he failed to score or throw for a touchdown in the ensuing two games. Having only one real weapon can be problematic from a consistency standpoint. If the defense or a malady took Vernon Davis away, Kaepernick had a tough time getting going. He still had his legs—Kaepernick did rush for 524 yards and four touchdowns—but the passing game was rather inconsistent. Kaepernick’s arsenal got a significant upgrade this offseason. Aside from Davis and Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree is healthy—for now, anyway—and the 49ers traded for Steve Johnson, the former No. 1 receiver in Buffalo who could thrive with the change of scenery. The 49ers also drafted Bruce Ellington and have second-year man Quinton Patton pushing for playing time.
Mark Wimer: Look at how much money the 49ers paid Colin Kaepernick - they think he's ready to become an elite NFL quarterback, and I agree with them. A healthy Michael Crabtree from day one this season also helps pump up Kaepernicks' passing stats this year. Kaepernick should be a dual-threat fantasy force again this year, and he's undervalued at 11th quarterback drafted.
Andrew Luck, Ind
Cian Fahey: Once again Andrew Luck enters an NFL season with a subpar offensive line in front of him, but he should have more receiving options than ever this year. Even Pep Hamilton, who is one of the most conservative offensive coordinators in the NFL, will have a hard time ignoring a passing game that features Dwayne Allen, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, Coby Fleener, and T.Y. Hilton. Luck offers all the quarterback tools to throw for more than 4,800 yards and 40+ touchdowns, but it's his added rushing ability that should make him more productive than the fifth quarterback in 2014.
Steve Holloway: Andrew Luck played well as a rookie passing for 4,374 yards and 23 TDs, but he completed only 54.1% of his passes. That percentage rose in his second season to 60.2, but the Colts threw the ball 3 less times per game. The loss of Dwayne Allen and Reggie Wayne hampered the passing production. Both Allen and Wayne should return and the Colts added Hakeem Nicks. Expect Luck to post career numbers in completion percentage, ypa, passing yardage, and passing TDs. Even though none of the Colts’ receivers are considered among the NFL’s elite, they have an abundance of quality. The strength of the team is Luck and the receivers. Look for them to impress in 2014.
Alex Miglio: Perhaps the biggest candidate for a major leap in fantasy scoring calls Lucas Oil Stadium home. Andrew Luck has been in the top 10 in fantasy scoring in each of his first two seasons with health and rushing touchdowns to thank. One thing he couldn’t thank was a solid offensive line or a heavily stocked armory. Those aren’t problems anymore, particularly the latter one. Luck has had Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, to be sure, but only both at the height of their powers for a short time together. Hilton was an inconsistent rookie alongside Luck in 2012, and Wayne was injured early last year. They will be back this season, joined by Hakeem Nicks and rookie Donte Moncrief. Tight end Dwayne Allen will also be back. Then there are those points he will add on the ground, which should continue to be be more than most quarterbacks in the league. A breakout season is in store for the third-year quarterback.
Jeff Pasquino: It might be difficult to consider aTop 5 quarterback underrated, but I can easily see Luck finishing as either the second or third best fantasy quarterback this season. The Colts have a terrible ground game with Trent Richardson, which makes the Colts a pass first offense. Luck has even more weapons this year, adding Hakeem Nicks (Giants) to an improving T.Y. Hilton and getting both Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen back from injury. Considering that Luck can run in a few touchdowns himself (nine in two seasons), has never missed a start and gets a soft schedule (AFC South and NFC East), I can see Luck topping 30 touchdowns and throwing for well over 4,000 yards.
Philip Rivers, SD
James Brimacombe: Having Rivers listed as the 15th QB off the board seems a little odd after his top 5 fantasy ranking last season. He is coming off a season which saw him pass for nearly 4,500 yards and 32 total touchdowns. He is gaining some chemistry with rookie WR Keenan Allen and 3rd year TE Ladarius Green and is a solid bet to be a top 10 QB once again in 2014.
Jeff Haseley: Philip Rivers finished as the 5th overall quarterback last year in Mike McCoy's offense. He may have overachieved to some extent, especially early on in the season, but is worth much more than the 15th ranked quarterback. He is an excellent QB2 to target who could start in a pinch, if needed.
Andy Hicks: Philip Rivers while not turning in a career year, at least demonstrated that he is a good quarterback who deserves to be rated much higher by the fantasy community with the arrival of the Mike McCoy regime. His ranking of 5th among passers last year was no fluke and there is every chance that the Chargers offense solidifies and becomes more reliable. Rivers has a wide array of solid receivers and a group of productive running backs. His current ADP is reflective of guys with more upside ahead of him, but by the end of the year Rivers should be a reliable starting quarterback at the price of a backup.
Matt Waldman: Let me get this straight: Rivers was the No.5 fantasy QB last year and other than a blip last year (No.20) he has been a top-10 QB in six of the past eight seasons—half of these seasons top-5—and he’s No.15 on this list? It’s not April 1, is it? Keenan Allen didn’t get hurt, did he? Ladarius Green didn’t collide with Antonio Gates and wipe out Danny Woodhead in the process, right? And isn’t Malcom Floyd healthy now? Last year I heard, Frank Reich is keeping the offense the same, but upping the tempo. I’m buying.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Robert Griffin III, Was
James Brimacombe: Griffin is currently being taken as the 7th QB off the board which is a big value. He offers a huge amount of upside this year especially after coming off a year which saw him take a drop off in production mainly due to some restrictions placed on him due to his ACL tear which he suffered in his rookie season. He went from 833 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground to 489 rushing yards with 0 rushing touchdowns. Look for Griffin to rebound nicely in 2014 with Washington adding plenty of new options in the passing game. With the signing of DeSean Jackson alone, Griffin is going to see better looks in the passing game and potential more holes in the running game.
Jeff Haseley: I like what I see in Robert Griffin as he prepares to enter his third year in the league and second year after suffering a major knee injury. Washington has surrounded him with receiving weapons in Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed. Head Coach Jay Gruden will have the offense buzzing and Griffin will be a key component of the resurgence. The believe the knee injury is behind him. If he can remain healthy, he should compete for a Top 5 finish.
Ryan Hester: After finishing as fantasy’s fifth-ranked quarterback in 2012, Griffin struggled in 2013. Much of what he accomplished in his 2012 rookie campaign was due to his ability to make plays with his legs. After the near-gruesome knee injury in the 2012 postseason, hindsight would easily say that he came back too soon. With nearly 18 months between the injury and Week 1 of 2014, Griffin should once again be the player he was in 2012. Add in the fact that his new head coach has a pass-first mindset that made a pedestrian talent like Andy Dalton a top-five fantasy quarterback last season, and the arrow is pointing up for Griffin.
Tony Romo, Dal
Joe Bryant: How the most visible player for one of the highest profile teams can be perennially under rated is one of the NFL's greatest mysteries. This year will be even worse for that as Romo returns from injury, but all signs point to a full recovery. "I'll be able to play for a while," Romo said. "There are way too many cases where you see people come back; Troy Aikman had it -- they won a Super Bowl the same season. Joe Montana comes back and wins two Super Bowls. They had the same surgery." He brings back a solid supporting cast with one of the best WRs in the game with Dez Bryant and the ultra reliable TE Jason Witten. New offensive coordinator Scott Linehan should be a positive as well.
Bob Magaw: The Cowboys are quietly building an outstanding young OL, selecting Pro Bowl LT Tyron Smith, center Travis Frederick and guard Zack Martin during the first round in three of the last four drafts. Despite the beatings routinely administered by defenses over the years that led to recent back surgery (hopefully an increasingly receding image in the rear view mirror while still in his relative prime), Romo has strung together the most consistent three year stretch of his career, albeit with only back-to-back-to-back 8-8 seasons to show for it, sandwiching a 4,900+ yard, 28 TD campaign in 2012 between identical 31 TD/10 INT seasons in 2011 and 2013 that averaged 4,000 yards. WR Dez Bryant has top 5 talent, ageless TE Jason Witten continues to play at a high level and promising second year WR Terrance Williams is an upgrade at this point over the since departed, chronically hamstrung Miles Austin. One of the biggest causes for an optimistic projection is the addition of new passing game coordinator Scott Linehan, who oversaw Matthew Stafford’s prodigious passing volume outburst the past half decade in Detroit.
Jason Wood: Tony Romo’s middle name has to be Dangerfield because he gets no respect. This is a passer that ranks among that all-time greats in yards per attempt, completion rate and TD percentage. You know, the metrics that most matter for fantasy productivity. Romo has been a top 8 fantasy (on a per game basis) almost every season as a starter, yet he’s being drafted 12th this year. Makes no sense, particularly when you consider new play-caller Scott Linehan has gotten career seasons out of Matthew Stafford, Marc Bulger and Daunte Culpepper. Imagine what he can do with a legitimately elite passer?
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Tom Brady, NE
Joe Bryant: Brady battled through a sub par (for him) 2013 mostly due to a new and injured receiving corps. He's always been a guy that relied more on mental preparation and adjustments than overpowering anyone physically and mentally he seems as sharp as ever. It's a lot easier to battle age when your game is based on reading the defense and finding the open receiver. Danny Amendola has a season of experience in the system and the hope of staying healthy (although that's a reach with Amendola). Julian Edelman established himself and the team expects to have TE Rob Gronkowski back on the field.
Steve Holloway: After finishing as QB7, QB5, QB5, and QB3 from 09-12, Brady slipped back to QB13 in 2013 as the Patriots lost the majority of their receivers from the 2012 squad and few of their remaining receivers could stay healthy. Edelman was the only one that played every game. Vereen missed 8 games, Amendola, Dobson, and Thompkins all missed 4, and Gronkowski missed 9. All of them return and the law of averages should keep them healthier than a year ago. Brady’s completion percentage, yards per attempt and TDs all fell off last year, but look for those stats to climb as Brady and the Patriots offense bounces back.
Johnny Manziel, Cle
Adam Harstad: Nobody would ever accuse Vince Young or Tim Tebow of being good quarterbacks, but they were both good FANTASY quarterbacks. Both players consistently ranked among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks when they were starting because, (and you might be noticing a theme in my selections here), rushing production is so much more valuable than passing production in fantasy football. Manziel will probably struggle mightily on the field. He’ll also probably put up garish rushing totals and could easily be the latest quarterback to shock the world and put up high-quality fantasy numbers in his rookie season.
Ryan Hester: As is the case with any rookie, Manziel will have plenty to learn in terms of passing fundamentals and playing the game from the pocket. But his ability to make plays with his legs can’t be ignored. In fact, with a lack of nuance to his passing game and a dearth of playmaking options among his pass-catchers, he may tuck and run more than his team’s play-calling would indicate he should. Manziel has the talent and athleticism to run for 800 yards. To put into perspective just how what rushing quarterbacks can do in fantasy football, consider this: since the NFL merger, only eight quarterbacks have rushed for 600 or more yards, passed for 3,000 or more yards, and rushed for five or more touchdowns. Six of those eight had 300 or more fantasy points, which would have landed a quarterback at QB15 last season. While 3,000 may sound like a lot of passing yards when discussing a rushing quarterback, consider that 21 players (including pedestrians talents like Geno Smith and players with “disappointing” seasons like Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III) threw for over 3,000 yards in 2013.
Matt Ryan, Atl
Andy Hicks: Matt Ryan seemed to be on a steady incline towards becoming an elite fantasy quarterback, until last season. He dropped in touchdowns, yardage and increased his interceptions. Everything that could have gone wrong last year in Atlanta, did. The running game was supposed to receive a boost with the arrival of Steven Jackson. He got injured. Julio Jones was supposed to confirm his arrival into the elite receivers. He got injured. In turn Ryan was forced to make plays while the leagues worst running offense struggled to move the ball. This year there should be a little more equilibrium in the offense and in turn Matt Ryan will produce better numbers and should easily approach the top 6 quarterbacks and be good value in fantasy drafts.
Mark Wimer: Matt Ryan had an off season due to serious injuries to his top two wide receivers - and he STILL threw for 4,515 passing yards and 26 TDs with Harry Douglas as his top wideout for many games last year. With Julio Jones and Roddy White back in action this season, Ryan should comfortably finish among the top-20 fantasy players, overall, and easily among the top-five fantasy quarterbacks. People are over-reacting to Jones' absence last year (and also Tony Gonzalez's retirement). He is a bargain at eighth quarterback off the board.
Ryan Tannehill, Mia
Jeff Haseley: If I told you Ryan Tannehill had more touchdown passes (24) than Andrew Luck (23) and was 90 yards shy of 4,000 yards passing, would you rank him as the 18th fantasy quarterback? Still not convinced, he's turning the corner? The Dolphins new Offensive Coordinator, Bill Lazor is more committed to a faster paced offense, the offensive line is improved and the weapons have gotten better. Look out for Tannehill this year.
Bob Henry: The Dolphins were a hot mess last year with an offensive line that was ravaged by injuries and the hazing scandal. With new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor implementing a faster paced offensive system similar to Chip Kelly’s in Philadelphia, Tannehill should have even more opportunity to amass fantasy stats with more passing attempts and arguably improved talent around him. Mike Wallace will now be moved around like DeSean Jackson was to optimize his talent. Jarvis Landry was drafted and Brandon Gibson returns from injury to give Tannehill a pair of quality targets competing for the inside, slot receiver. The Dolphins offensive line play can only get better and Tannehill was among the most consistent performers at QB last year despite having no protection. If he continues to improve with the mental part of his game, he could ascend from being a middle tier QB2 into a potential top 10 QB.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Hou
Joe Bryant: Fitzpatrick arriving in Houston seems to be welcomed with groans and panic over the fantasy outlook for the Texans. Granted, Fitzpatrick isn't Peyton Manning. But neither was Matt Schaub and we loved this offense then. Fitzpatrick has the one giant advantage a great many average QBs don't have - a talent like WR Andre Johnson. Johnson's size and wingspan are a new quarterback's dream. His current ADP of QB30 seems way too low given the weapons around him.
Nick Foles, Phi
Kyle Wachtel: Only Peyton Manning recorded more fantasy points per start than Foles in 2013. While DeSean Jackson may be gone, Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Matthews, and Darren Sproles will be added to the offense. Chip Kelly also intends to pick up the tempo and it should be no surprise to see Foles finish alongside the elite three.
Peyton Manning, Den
Jason Wood: How can the #1 ranked quarterback be on my undervalued list? Because he’s being drafted just outside of the first round and suffers from an unending lack of appreciation for the value of a truly elite passer. Yes, I know fantasy ‘pundits’ love to preach waiting on quarterback. But did you realize that Manning was far and away the most valuable fantasy player last year and was on more winning teams than any other player? The league’s best offense returns with an even better receiving corps (Decker leaves but Sanders and Latimer arrive) and Manning has a chip on his shoulder after last year’s Super Bowl drubbing. Manning could regress by 20% and still be the most valuable fantasy player this year, he should be a serious contender for a top five choice in any league format.
Cam Newton, Car
Adam Harstad: In many scoring systems, Newton has never in his career finished worse than QB4. Last year in standard FBGs scoring, Newton scored two points fewer than Matt Stafford. Not two per game, two total for the entire season. Yes, his receivers suck this year. They sucked last year, too- nobody topped 750 receiving yards except for TE Greg Olsen (who returns), and that didn’t stop him. It’s hard to fathom Newton falling this far when most fantasy leagues give more twice as many points for rushing production as passing production.