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This week we discuss the following:
- Rookie wide receivers on the rise
- Are you buying or selling?
- Top-tier tight ends
- Patriots wide receivers
- Golden Tate and Mohamed Sanu
Rookie wide receivers on the rise
The top tier of rookie wide receivers—Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin—all made their mark pretty quickly this season. (We can probably count Odell Beckham Jras well, who made an impact as soon as he was healthy enough to play.)
There are also a number of rookie wide receivers who are just starting to take on much bigger roles in their respective offenses and are finding success:
John Brown
Donte Moncrief
Allen Robinson
Davante Adams
Jarvis Landry
Martavis Bryant
Paul Richardson Jr
Which guys from that second group are you most excited about—this season and beyond—and why?
Matt Waldman: Bryant and Brown are by far the most exciting of this group. I've written extensively about Bryant (and several of the others on the list) in this week's Gut Check. The basic highlights of my take on Bryant: He was a dangerous vertical and red zone threat at Clemson who flashed potential as a route runner in the middle of the field when called upon. Since his timing training with the Steelers, Bryant's routes have improved considerably, especially his hands and footwork when releasing from the line of scrimmage and hand-checking defenders down field.
It doesn't matter if Bryant becomes the official WR2 or remains a part of the Steelers' rotation without an official designation; Ben Roethlisberger is confident in Bryant and loves having a receiver with speed, height, and hands—something he's never had in one player during his NFL career. As I said in this week's column, Bryant may not be as talented as A.J. Green, but he has enough skill to earn double-digit touchdowns for multiple seasons in Pittsburgh for as long as Roethlisberger is at the helm. I think Bryant has a better future than Justin Hunter, even if Hunter is a slightly more talented athlete. But if Hunter continues to display focus issues and is paired with inconsistent quarterback play, I'd rather have the Steelers' rookie. Bryant reminds me of a more focused Chris Henry.
I didn't see Brown in college, but what I've seen at Arizona is impressive. Beyond the fact that he's lightning-fast, he's sure-handed and adjusts well to the football in tight coverage. Moreover, he's confident and studious. The story on Brown is that he paid his own way to work with Carson Palmer between minicamp and training camp and stuck to Larry Fitzgerald like glue to learn everything he could. Brown's attitude is "there's no such thing as just a rookie," in the NFL and his work ethic, his understanding of who to reach out to, his ability to properly prioritize his focus are three traits that separate rookies who develop from rookies who struggle.
Ari Ingel: I love them all. Honestly, I have been hammering people since the preseason and in my weekly column, The Docket, for dynasty owners to get as many pieces of this rookie wide receiver class as possible. In my dynasty league I own Cooks, Latimer, Beckham and Moncrief ... and I want more. In fact, Latimer isn't even in the discussion shows you how deep and talented this rookie class is. Sig was early on Latimer, but he will be starting for the Bronco's next year ... and a starting wide receiver for the Bronco's is Fantasy gold. And Jordan Matthews is missing too. Another stud.
This is how I rank them for the season and beyond ... but an argument can easily be made for one to be higher or lower than the others:
For this season:
Sammy Watkins
Kelvin Benjamin
Brandin Cooks
Odell Beckham Jrbr /> Mike Evans
Allen Robinson
John Brown
Martavis Bryant (going to get a deep shot or two a game, in addition to red zone targets)
Davante Adams
Donte Moncrief
Jordan Matthews
Jarvis Landry
Paul Richardson Jr
Dynasty Rankings:
Sammy Watkins
Kelvin Benjamin
Brandin Cooks
Odell Beckham Jrbr /> Donte Moncrief (if he is starting, he will be beastly. Greg Cosell compared to Andre Johnson and Josh Gordon)
Cody Latimer (Erick Decker 2013 is his floor)
Martavis Bryant (if he improves his route tree, real stud potential)
John Brown (Depends on if they keep Fitz, could be higher if starting in two wide receiver sets)
Allen Robinson (Going to be a PPR stud)
Mike Evans (the quarterback play and OC caps him for the foreseeable future right now big time)
Davante Adams (a monster if Cobb or Nelson gets hurt)
Marqise Lee
Jordan Matthews
Jarvis Landry
Paul Richardson Jr (this offense caps his upside, has the talent)
Jeff Janis (probably two years off)
Jeff Haseley: What a rookie class! Really, this could be one of the best wide receiver classes in a long time. The touchdowns are already flowing and we still have a whole half a season to go. All of the above are players to watch, but the ones I am most interested in are Davante Adams, Martavis Bryant. If Green Bay decides not to retain Randall Cobb after the season, Adams immediately becomes a fantasy WR2. Martavis Bryant is emerging as the Steelers WR2 behind Antonio Brown and is a perfect fit for their offense. Donte Moncrief is also someone I like, but his value will likely diminish once Reggie Wayne returns from his injured elbow. Next year definitely looks promising for him to emerge, especially if Wayne elects to retire.
Kyle Wachtel: It takes opportunity to make an impact and of that second group of receivers, Robinson, Landry, and Bryant are the most likely to finish out the season as a top-two receiver for their team on their own merit. It's tough to envision the Jacksonville offense ever hitting stride this season, but Robinson is guaranteed the most snaps of the group, which makes him the pick of the litter in redraft leagues. Ryan Tannehill has been playing much better lately and should continue to improve alongside Bill Lazor, but Landry profiles more as a underneath receiver, which limits his upside to only a WR4. Bryant is an explosive athlete and is in good hands with Roethlisberger, creating a situation where the rookie can develop into a WR3 sooner rather than later.
In dynasty leagues, the two that I'd most like to have on my roster are Moncrief and Adams. This season, Wayne will resume his role as the No. two receiver when he returns from his elbow injury. However, his declining skills are tough to ignore and even if he hangs around for another year, I'd expect him to take a backseat to Moncrief, who boasts measureables that encroach on Andre Johnson territory and flashed some of his mammoth potential this past weekend. Meanwhile, Adams passed Jarrett Boykin on the depth chart in short order and has worked himself into fantasy value near the WR3/4 border. As Jeff mentioned, it's not a lock that Cobb returns for another year and if he does depart, you can lock Adams in for near-WR1 production.
Ari Ingel: I would be shocked if Green Bay doesn't retain Cobb. I think Adams fills the now exited James Jones, outside receiver role, while Cobb is great in the slot. Jeff Janis is also an outside guy. With no reliable tight end on their roster, once again ... I'd be shocked if Green Bay doesn't keep Cobb.
That said, I think Adams will have great value in this offense, that will grow every year and this is an offense, like Denver now, that can accommodate three or even four receivers.
Are you buying or selling?
Are you buying or selling the following players?
Matt Waldman: I'm holding on Foles. He's a matchup play because of his offensive line, which is bad enough to make the remaining schedule a bigger factor than your better quarterback/O-line combos in the NFL.
Ari Ingel: I'm holding, but his real life play has been much worse than his fantasy numbers. As crazy as it sounds, I wouldn't be shocked if Sanchez overtakes him next season or they draft someone else to compete with Foles if they let Sanchez go. But for Fantasy, there is weekly value at the quarterback position in this offense and I think it continues. In fact, with the Eagles O-Line getting healthy, I think Foles production could get a little better. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Carson Palmer and perhaps Big Ben performed better than him down the stretch.
Jeff Haseley: If I'm not holding Nick Foles, I'm selling him. He has made a lot of mistakes this year and some that weren't turnovers as well. The offensive line is a big reason for his struggles at times. He can still make plays each week but I think we'll see more of a turn downward than upward in the second half of the season.
Steve Buzzard: I am selling slightly. I wasn't a big fan of Foles coming into the season and he hasn't really done anything to dispel those thoughts. I think the league has more tape on Foles and the Eagles offense and they are able to force Foles into more mistakes. The offensive player typically will adjust to this defensive adjustment but it isn't something I would want to bank on. Foles is a QB1 streamer for me.
Kyle Wachtel: I'm holding Nick Foles. The offensive line should be back among the NFL's best with the nearing returns of C Jason Kelce and LG Evan Mathis, both of which rank among the best at their positions. Philadelphia has plenty of weapons around him as well. There's a turbulent schedule ahead though that contains both favorable and unfavorable matchups. In the end, he should perform as a mid-to-low QB1, which is right where he's ranked.
Matt Waldman: I'm buying Vereen. Yes, New England doesn't trust Vereen to be the feature back due to his size, but they try very hard to get him single coverage matchups as a receiver and I think Gronkowski and LaFell's recent rise in production will only create more opportunities for Vereen to hit some big plays.
Ari Ingel: It's just so hard to trust a running back in this offense on a week-to-week basis. It really has nothing to do with Vereen's talent either, it is more a product of New England dialing up a new game plan every week, and that sometimes doesn't include Vereen as a featured part of this offense now and again. But I am holding here too, especially in PPR leagues. I will say I would rather have Mark Ingram, who can probably be traded for more cheaply.
Jeff Haseley: Ari hit the nail on the head with the uncertainty of the Patriots game plan week to week. Vereen definitely has the talent and if you could convince me that he'll be the primary ball carrier going forward, I'd be a big-time buyer here. The problem is nobody knows what the Patriots will do, which is what will ultimately be the reason why he isn't a consistent fantasy option each week. I'm holding for now.
Steve Buzzard: I am also slightly selling on Vereen. First of all because I am typically always selling on the Pats running backs for the same reasons my fellow staffers have mentioned. I just can't trust their running back usage on a weekly basis. Jonas Gray was very heavily featured in the game plan last week and he looked solid doing so. While they are obviously quite different this lowers the ceiling on Vereen and when you have uncertainty without high ceilings I will look to sell.
Kyle Wachtel: It'd be tough to find an owner willing to take on Vereen's share of New England's volatile backfield after a five-carry, 22-yard performance on the ground with just another three receptions for 23 yards. He's best suited as an RB3/Flex play in standard leagues and as a volatile RB2 in PPR formats. He'll have another big game that injects belief into his fantasy prospects, but I'd look for the next opportunity to sell for a more consistent player.
Matt Waldman: I'm selling Tate. I've studied every Browns game and while I was initially bullish on Tate as a guy to buy low (as long as you paired him with Isaiah Crowell), the loss of center Alex Mack has hurt this offensive line. Center might be the most important position on the offensive line if you're talking about the player most vital for the entire line to play well as a unit, and we're seeing the impact of Mack's absence in Cleveland right now. That said, Mike Pettine has limited Crowell's carries the past couple of weeks and Crowell has looked a lot better than both Tate and West even in this limited time. Crowell is more decisive, equally as powerful, and a more consistent pass protector. Unless Pettine has limited Crowell because of off-field or practice issues (which was the reason Crowell was a UDFA) then I'd be betting that Pettine has given West and Tate one last series of chances to perform before he hands the first opportunity to Crowell.
Ari Ingel: I'm selling if I need help until week 12. I'm holding if he's my number three and don't need to rely on him. The loss of Center Alex Mack is huge; so are the injuries to Jordan Cameron and the suspension of Josh Gordon. With no Mack, Cameron and Gordon, defenses can stack the box and dominate. Once Gordon and Cameron come back, I think life gets a bit easier for this run game. Both Cameron and Gordon will help open the field big time, and I'll tell you what, Andrew Hawkins and Miles Austin are not bad complimentary pieces if those two guys are taking the lead. Do I think Crowell should be the lead back? I certainly do! Do I feel as if the Browns' organization is willing to do that now? I do not. When you pay Tate a decent amount to be there and when you draft West in the second round, going to the undrafted rookie as your bell cow in year one is a bit tough for the organization to swallow. Next season, I hope that changes.
Jeff Haseley: I'm selling Ben Tate, simply because I feel Isaiah Crowell is the better back for Cleveland. Matt Waldman is dead on about the offensive line woes with Alex Mack's injury. It may take some time for the OL to gel and get some cohesion. Right now they aren't a strong unit and that affects all of the Browns backs.
Steve Buzzard: Tate is another guy I am slightly selling. Tate wasn’t someone I was too fond of to start the year. First of all, he is in the Browns offense which while not as bad as it once was is still led by Brian Hoyer. Additionally, he has two competent backs that the coaches seem interested in keeping involved in the game plans and a significant injury to Alex Mack has left the line a fraction of its original self. The Browns are still the third most run-heavy team after adjusting for situation and have Josh Gordon coming back so there is some upside, but I would rather take my chances with someone like Ingram or this level of wide receiver.
Kyle Wachtel: Heading into the season, I viewed Tate as a high-end RB2 and he's flashed that potential at times, but the entire running game, which was a strength for Cleveland, has fallen on hard times. As mentioned by the others, Alex Mack's injury occurred at the same time of the descent and he won't be returning this season. Tate led the team in snaps and touches this past weekend, indicating that the starting job is still his to lose, but he doesn't have a stranglehold on the lead role. Best case scenario is that he puts together a nice game versus Tampa Bay this weekend to open up a sell-high window.
Matt Waldman: I'm holding Forsett only because Lorenzo Taliaferro will earn enough opportunities to keep a lower ceiling on Forsett than the veteran is capable if he were the only show in town.
Ari Ingel: I'm holding. Lorenzo Taliaferro will continue to get touches and I like where Forsett is right now. Probably the best pure waiver wire find at running back this season, especially in PPR leagues. He'll continue to be very active ever week and the Ravens look like they have officially moved on from Bernard Pierce.
Jeff Haseley: I'll hold onto Justin Forsett for now simply because there is no better option on the team at this point. Lorenzo Taliaferro is intriguing, but he is not a good pass-catching back, nor does he have the speed and quickness that Forsett brings to the table. Baltimore likes to infuse the pass out of the backfield in their offense—hence the reason for Forsett's value.
Steve Buzzard: I am going to hold Forsett. Which I wouldn’t have predicted at the beginning of the year at all. Oh, what might have been with my preseason favorite of Ray Rice! Once you start getting into this range of running backs there isn’t really a lot of good value and Forsett is getting a consistent workload.
Kyle Wachtel: Forsett is hands down the best running back on Baltimore. While Gary Kubiak won't be handing him a workhorse volume or even goal line carries any time soon, he's locked in as the lead back in this committee and has done nothing but produce to the tune of top-eight ranking in STD and PPR leagues. The public perception of him isn't strong enough for him to be a prime sell-high candidate and the chances of getting the value back for him aren't high. I'd rather hold onto him as a strong RB2.
Matt Waldman: I'm also holding on Fitzgerald. Even if Michael Floyd misses time, I don't expect breakaway touchdowns to be the rule for the veteran. I would like to see Palmer show more trust in Fitzgerald on 50-50 routes, which hasn't happened since the veteran quarterback arrived in Arizona. I also think it's a reason some people claim Fitzgerald "isn't what he used to be." I may be wrong that Fitzgerald's still got it, but until I see evidence that Fitzgerald can't outrun defenses in the open field or make plays in tight coverage (if Palmer ever targets him) then I don't think these people know what they're talking about . Unfortunately, I think John Brown and Floyd are the only two options slated to see vertical targets in the Arians offense. Watching the scheme send Fitzgerald into the flats on dump-off routes is disheartening to me, which is more the reason I'm holding than it is Fitzgerald "getting old." BAH!!
Ari Ingel: I'm holding. I think Fitz is starting to pick up steam, but this offense also spreads the ball around on a week-to-week basis. If Palmer gets hurt again though ... sell, sell, sell.
Jeff Haseley: I'm holding Fitzgerald, mainly due to his experience and veteran leadership. Carson Palmer knows that when he needs to rely on someone, Fitzgerald is there. Arizona is a contender in the NFC this year and Fitzgerald has the ability to be a big part of keeping the momentum going in desert.
Steve Buzzard: Fitzgerald is a sell for me. Although I wasn't high on him during the preseason, I wouldn’t have guessed he would fall quite this far. But he isn’t getting targeted enough to be a difference-maker ever week. I own him in one league and if someone offered me guys like Brandin Cooks or DeAndre Hopkins I would accept in a heartbeat. Coming off his big game is a perfect time to pull the trigger.
Kyle Wachtel: Fitzgerald leads the team in targets (46), receptions (30), and receiving yards (443). He also led the team in targets and receptions, clearly indicating that he's the No. one option in this passing game. His current production is sustainable and with many people not buying into his high-end WR2 value, it's a good time to buy-in on him.
Matt Waldman: I'm holding on Brandon Marshall. He's a top-10 receiver. I'm not worried about the ups and downs of the Chicago and national media soap opera scene. The team may be struggling, but Marshall will be fine.
Ari Ingel: This one is price-sensitive because I'd expect people's valuations of Marshall to vary pretty widely right now. In most leagues, however, you should be buying. I suspect many of his owners are very frustrated with is production and willing to sell for pennies on the dollar, especially with the bad vibes surrounding the Bears right now. Marshall is a beast and there is no drop off in his game. Cutler will start feeding him soon enough.
Jeff Haseley: If anything, I am buying Brandon Marshall. The Bears offense and Marshall's talent are too good to ignore. He can get two touchdowns any given week, and then again the next week. He is the type of player who can get hot and stay hot for a few weeks. Right now he is lukewarm, but I don't expect that to continue.
Steve Buzzard: I think Ari nailed this one. If the Marshall owner in your league is frustrated, take a shot and throw out an offer for a guy that will be a top-10 wide receiver for the rest of the year. The only note of concern is if you are nearly assured of making the playoffs I might be willing to sell because the Bears are playing a lot of cold-weather games to finish off the year.
Kyle Wachtel: There may not be a better buy-low than Marshall right now. As mentioned in this week's Forensics Report, he's been held to 50 or fewer receiving yards in six of eight games this season and hasn't scored a touchdown in the past four games. Don't be fooled though; he's the same player that was fairly valued as a mid-WR1 in the preseason and will return to that production sooner rather than later.
Matt Waldman: Walker is another hold. One week of Zach Mettenberger and lower than average production from Walker does not a stretch-run make or break. I could see Walker as a sell if Mettenberger forgot what a tight end is while he was at LSU (and watching LSU over the years, this is easy for a quarterback to do). However, I think Walker is the best receiver on the team and Mettenberger might just be smart enough come to that realization now that J.J. Watt has ripped the rookie's head out of his smart phone.
Ari Ingel: I'm holding Walker. He should be fine, which means finishing well behind that top tier of dominate tight ends (Graham, Gronkowski, Thomas) and just behind the second tier (Bennett, Gates, Olsen).
Jeff Haseley: I'm also holding on Delanie Walker. The Titans offense is a mess right now with no clear savior in sight at quarterback. The best option for him may be a return of Jake Locker, but I also need to see more of a sample size from Zach Mettenberger. If the Titans offense can get some rhythm Walker may be a decent tight end, but decent isn't going to win you a championship.
Steve Buzzard: I would be willing to sell Delanie Walker to anyone who values him as a mid-tier fantasy starter, but I am not sure I could really get that value for him. Walker is actually one guy that I liked in the preseason and have in a few leagues. He has even outperformed my expectations but I am worried what the offense will do with Zach Mettenberger.
Kyle Wachtel: After a torrid start to the season, Walker has cooled off considerably. However, he remains the leader (or tied for the lead) in all of the receiving categories for Tennessee with 52 targets, 35 receptions, 475 receiving yards, and four receiving touchdowns. Those numbers put him on pace for a career line of 70-950-8, which is within reach playing in Ken Whisenhunt's tight end friendly offense.
Top-tier tight ends
Who will score the most fantasy points from here on out: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, or Julius Thomas?
Matt Waldman: My bet is still on Graham among the tight ends. Watching his confidence increase throughout the Packers game was fun and an indication that he's over the psychological hurdle of the shoulder injury. Although Gronkowski is gaining ground and I almost put him over Graham, the big fella in New England still looks limited as a runner. The burst isn't quite there. A pre-injury Gronkowski would have scored against the Bears without the pursuit catching him at the end and all year, Gronkowski has appeared as if he's running in sand compared to his old self. He's still a very good tight and fantasy option, but not the otherworldly, destructive force that could have been in an X-Men production.
Truth be told, I'd take any of these three tight ends, and I wouldn't be splitting hairs about which one might outscore the others by a few points down the stretch.
Ari Ingel: Gronkowski, but it's close with Graham. With Gronkowski, Brady seems to look his way often and I believe he is really the only receiver he truly trusts. I think getting Gronkowski going fires Brady up, which then fires up the whole offense. Watch Brady run up to Gronkowski after tossing him a TD: his excitement is obvious. It looks like two bros, broing out big time.
That said ... never count out Graham. If he stays healthy, he is a beast.
Jeff Haseley: Boy, I don't think you can go wrong with either of those three, but my money is on Jimmy Graham. He appears to be returning back to full health or at least close to it. When the race is close, look a little further. In this case, I see Graham's NFC South division as the tiebreaker. The NFC South is by far the best division for fantasy points scored. The needle shifts to Graham, but any of those three could help your team win a championship.
Kyle Wachtel: In order, the top-three tight ends are Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and then Julius Thomas. I don't believe that order is as interchangeable as many think and there's a large enough sample size to back that up as well; here's a look at their recent per game production since each of their first breakthroughs:
Gronkowski (Since 2011—a total of 42 games): 5.3 receptions, 77.8 receiving yards, 0.93 touchdowns—13.36 STD FPPG / 18.66 PPR FPPG
Graham (Since 2011—a total of 54 games): 5.7 receptions, 73.0 receiving yards, 0.74 touchdowns—11.74 STD FPPG / 17.44 PPR FPPG
Thomas (Since 2013—a total of 21 games): 4.5 receptions, 53.1 receiving yards, 1.00 touchdowns—11.31 STD FPPG / 15.81 PPR FPPG
At this point, Graham's current injury situation neutralizes any concern regarding Gronkowski's health. Even with both players limited, Gronkowski more so than Graham, for stretches during the above timeframes, there's a large gap in the production between the two.
While those two tight ends are the clear number one options on their teams, Thomas is no higher than third in the Denver receiving hierarchy and his low reception and yardage totals are a direct result.
Steve Buzzard: Ari really nailed my thoughts on this one. It’s tough to nitpick between these three. The most important thing is to get one of them. Whomever you can get. Fantasy football is a weekly game and once you make the playoffs these guys are going to be the ones that help you win a title since they give you a significant advantage each week. If I had to choose right now given Gronkowski is further along on his injury recovery I would say Gronkowski would be the leading scorer the rest of the way.
Patriots wide receivers
Has Brandon LaFell surpassed Julian Edelman as the Patriots' best wide receiver?
Matt Waldman: It appears LaFell has been the most productive. He and Brady are meshing down field, but I still have issues with LaFell dropping the ball at inopportune times. I don't trust Patriots receivers at this point, but if you don't have the luxury to pontificate about New England's receiving corps from afar and you're forced to play one them, then yes, I'd begrudgingly go with LaFell.
Ari Ingel: I think so. Edelman is the least exciting wide receiver worth starting in all of Fantasy. Is anyone ever fired up when they submit their lineup and he is in it? He catches a ton of passes, but so little upside. I think Brady likes having a bigger receiver like LaFell to throw to. That said, if Gronkowski goes down, sell, sell, sell. He makes this offense tick.
Jeff Haseley: In the "What have you done for me lately?" NFL, the answer is Brandon LaFell. Julian Edelman and LaFell are nearly neck and neck in the last four games with the exception of touchdowns. LaFell's three scores is the difference. Looking ahead, I see more scoring opportunities for LaFell than Edelman and we already know the chemistry is there with LaFell and Brady. It's not a foregone conclusion, but LaFell would be my choice here.
Kyle Wachtel: Brandon LaFell teased fantasy owners his entire career in Carolina before becoming an afterthought in New England. I touched on him in this week's Forensics Report (http://subscribers.Footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=wachtelredraftbuysellweek9_14) and in the past six games that he's started, his numbers would project to 80-1,229-10.7 over sixteen games. However, it'd be unwise to expect any starting slot receiver for the Patriots to fall of the map completely. In standard scoring leagues, the nod would be to LaFell, but he's a better sell than hold, and in PPR scoring, my money is on Julian Edelman to get back on track as early as this weekend versus Denver when Tom Brady will need his security blanket.
Steve Buzzard: I largely agree with Kyle. Edelman’s production has been down the last few weeks but this last week was the first week that it really kept Tom Brady from targeting Edelman. Prior to this week he was averaging 10 targets a game over the past five weeks and those targets were pretty consistent. That all fell apart this last week with four targets compared to LaFell’s 11. Their yardage total is pretty even due to LaFell's bigger play capability. Going forward I think Edelman will go right back to getting more targets and will make him a safe but low ceiling weekly play, especially in PPR whereas LaFell will give you a bigger upside. In standard league I would only really want LaFell but would tend to prefer Edelman’s consistency in PPR leagues.
Golden Tate and Mohamed Sanu
What kind of fantasy value will Golden Tate and Mohamed Sanu retain once Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green return to their respective lineups?
Matt Waldman: Tate and Sanu will continue to be fantasy starters, but I think their WR1 upside will be far less consistent with the two big guns returning. That said, both are very similar players in style: tough competitors with the ball in the air and excellent against tight coverage down field. I see strong WR3 production as their fantasy average once Johnson and Green return.
Ari Ingel: Golden Tate is a stud. I think his value doesn't fall off at all, in fact, I think he sees even lighter coverage with Calvin commanding double teams and safety help when he comes back. He will remain a very solid WR2 with WR1 upside. Hindsight is 20/20, but how bad must the Seahawks feel that they signed Harvin instead of retaining Tate? Major blunder. They had their guy.
As for Sanu, I think his value does diminish, kicking him to that fantasy WR3 role. I don't believe this offense, with Dalton at the helm, is capable of allowing Sanu to keep putting up the sort of numbers he has been when Green returns. He will be the third option behind Green and Bernard. And then when Eifert returns, is he the fourth option? To me, he may settle into a more of a Terrence Williams sort of role ... three or four targets a game, with a TD opportunity every game possible.
Jeff Haseley: Both Golden Tate and Mohamed Sanu were performing fairly well before Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green left the lineup. Both will be their respective team's second wide receiver option, so there is still adequate fantasy value for both. I can make a case for Tate because he'll see a lot of single coverage and Matthew Stafford is a better fantasy quarterback than Andy Dalton, in my opinion. I like Sanu because I'm not sold on A.J. Green returning to form with a nagging toe injury that likely will affect him for weeks to come. I would not be surprised to see both Tate and Sanu continue to excel, although to a slight lesser degree than they are now. Harry Douglas continued to excel after Roddy White returned from injury last year. Granted Julio Jones was also out, but as with Douglas, I see both quarterbacks maintaining confidence in their secondary receivers, which will go a long way in keeping the fantasy numbers high.
Kyle Wachtel: Coincidentally, I recently tweeted out the splits for these two receivers with and without their team's respective No. one receivers. Tate has been producing as an elite WR1, but should settle in as a low-to-mid WR2 after Johnson returns. While Sanu, who was performing as a WR1, is likely to fall off to low-end WR3 production once Green returns.
Steve Buzzard: Tate and Sanu will both continue to have value when Johnson and Green return to the lineup. Obviously they will both drop down the ranks but the drop may not be nearly as much as you would think because they have gained the trust of their respective quarterbacks. Tate in particular has been extremely efficient catching 69% of his passes for 14.5 yards per reception and Sanu isn’t that much behind catching 61% for 14.8 yards per reception. Those are good stats for a number one receiver without anyone taking the pressure off of them. Johnson and Green will obviously demand a lot of the targets going forward but with the efficiency that Tate and Sanu have achieved so far it may actually take a target or two away from Johnson and Green. That might not be a bad thing either since they are some of the most heavily targeted receivers in the game. All told I would still rank Tate as a WR2 going forward and Sanu as a WR3 with the upside of a WR2 in the right matchups.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.