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This week we discuss the following:
- The Percy Harvin trade
- Bills running backs
- Rams running backs
- Jaguars running backs
- Players who've earned more touches
- Ryan Tannehill
The Percy Harvin trade
Based on last week's performance by the Seahawks, it seems that Russell Wilson won't miss Harvin much. Is Doug Baldwin a legitimate NFL WR1?
Jeff Pasquino: I believe that Russell Wilson's athletic ability at quarterback creates opportunities for Doug Baldwin to be a WR1. Defenses have to respect Wilson as both a rusher and a passer, and that leads to more man-to-man and zone coverages (and not double teams) against his receivers. It certainly helps that both Baldwin and Kearse can get open and catch, and Paul Richardson Jr should not be overlooked as a legit WR3 for Seattle, either.
Dan Hindery: Baldwin was due for a big game after the Harvin trade. I think it was important for Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson to prove that they could put up points without Harvin and that the current wide receivers (led by Baldwin) are up to the task. Going forward, however, it is likely that this offense will still rely primarily on the legs of Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson, and we will not see a lot of 300+ yard passing days. The run-first formula has worked very well for the Seahawks the past two seasons. If the Seattle defense bounces back a little, expect this offense to return to its run-first tendencies. The biggest reasons for optimism on Baldwin (and the case for his fantasy WR2 upside) are the injuries to Seattle's defense and the growth of Russell Wilson. Seattle is without LB Bobby Wagner for at least a few weeks as he recovers from turf toe. Injuries are really piling up at CB and DT as well and Seattle is simply not as dominant on defense as they have been in past years at this point in the season. If the defensive struggles continue to persist, Seattle will have to place more on Russell Wilson and the passing game and attempt to win some shootouts. Wilson has shown that in his third season he is able to take on a more prominent role. These pass-heavy, higher scoring games are the type of game scripts that could lead to big weeks for Baldwin like we just saw against St. Louis.
John Lee: The Percy Harvin trade still baffles me. For their end, the Seahawks traded first- and third-round picks to acquire Harvin, sign him to a lucrative extension, and then gave him a grand total of six games to find his place in their offense. Reports out of Seattle suggest that Harvin was unable to fit into Seattle's system, both on and off the field; his exit may have more to do with his inability to play nicely with others than his football prowess because Harvin apparently also clashed with former Viking Coach Leslie Frazier, one of the reasons he was traded the first time.
The Seahawks passing game did look unaffected last week against the Rams, but I do not think we can pretend like Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse are reliable weekly fantasy options. In fact, we have a year's worth of data to examine exactly how good or bad they can be in this offense; in 2013, Baldwin and Kearse were the Seahawks' primary receiving options while Harvin was sidelined with an injury. Baldwin averaged 3.1 receptions, 48.6 yards, and 0.3 TD's per game in this same offense last year; Kearse was worse: he averaged 1.5 receptions, 23.1 yards, and 0.3 TDs per game. Even if we assume the Seahawks involve them more heavily this year, they are still WR3/flex plays, at best, in a season-long format. Paul Richardson Jr is a talented rookie receiver who could benefit most from the Harvin trade, but he likely will not be fantasy-relevant until 2015.
Ryan Hester: I like what Pasquino said about Wilson's athletic ability being a key to Baldwin's production. Baldwin doesn't have NFL WR1-caliber skills, however, and I see his production sinking from a Week 7 performance in St. Louis that will be his high watermark on the season. Let's keep in mind when discussing the fantasy outlooks of each member of the Seattle offense that Russell Wilson averaged 400 pass attempts in his first two seasons (25 per game).
While there is a natural increase due to his progression as a player into his third season, he's still averaging just over 29. Alex Smith has more attempts. Brian Hoyer does as well. You may cite that Wilson has already had his bye week, which skews those numbers. But both Smith and Hoyer have, too. Seattle's Week 7 performance was very volume-based.
Their desired game script sees Wilson throwing 25 times for 220-250 yards and running the ball a handful of times for 30-60 more. It doesn't see double-digit targets for Baldwin or any receiver. In Seattle's ideal game, Marshawn Lynch also eclipses his 18 Week 7 carries and runs for 85 or more yards. Wilson is still a QB1 but not an elite one, and Lynch is still an RB1.
Stephen Holloway: Jeff's description of Russell Wilson's athleticism is on target, but Wilson uses that ability to run almost as often as he does to hit receivers after scrambling. The Seattle offensive game plan is balance and they average an NFL high 5.4 yards per rush in 2014. Prior to this week when Wilson threw for over 300 yards, he had averaged 195 yards passing and the team ranks 29th in passing yards per game.
Where do you rank Baldwin among wide receivers for fantasy purposes going forward?
Jeff Pasquino: Baldwin is a fantasy WR3 because I don't think he will consistently command targets from Wilson, who will just move the offense with whoever is open.
Dan Hindery: I like Baldwin as a guy on the WR2-WR3 border for now. He has the potential to move up to a high-end WR2 but it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up showing too much inconsistency to be anything more than a WR3-WR4 type, either.
Ryan Hester: Baldwin is a WR3.
Stephen Holloway: Baldwin will see more targets with Harvin gone, but his average targets per game is more likely to be seven than the 11 he had this week. He is a solid WR3 going forward and it would be surprising if he has another outburst like this over the remainder of the season.
Scott Bischoff: I think Dan has the Baldwin situation summed up really well, and I like what Jeff said about Wilson's abilities leading to Baldwin's opportunities and production. I think Wilson will get Baldwin into fantasy WR1 territory here and there, but the reality is that Baldwin is more a high-end WR3 with Kearse being more in the WR4/flex play range.
After Baldwin, which Seahawks wide receiver has the most upside potential in redraft leagues this season: Jermaine Kearse or Paul Richardson Jr?
Jeff Pasquino: I think Kearse has more upside this season than Richardson, who has more talent but is more raw as a rookie.
Ryan Hester: Kearse is a boom-or-bust, what-the-heck flex in a good matchup, which is more than I would say for Richardson.
Stephen Holloway: Richardson has much more upside than Kearse, but he is still learning to play in the NFL. He would definitely be my preferred player on the end of the bench, but the likelihood of consistent production is slim, again due to lack of consistent usage as much as ability.
Scott Bischoff: I like Kearse a little more than Richardson only for this year, as I think Richardson has electric ability to be a very good deep threat in the NFL. I would watch for "package plays" that the Seahawks might run for Richardson as a sign that he may have jumped Kearse to be more productive in fantasy football.
How will Harvin's arrival in New York affect the Jets offense? Does it give Geno Smith hope for fantasy relevance?
Jeff Pasquino: Harvin's arrival in New York is a very interesting development. Geno Smith now has a WR1 and someone who can threaten opposing defenses with his speed, ability to run the ball and also to get deep and stretch a defense. Up until now, the Jets lacked all of that.
Dan Hindery: Percy Harvin is a huge unknown but he steps into a pretty good situation. The Jets are seriously lacking in the explosive playmaker department and were reportedly hot after Tavon Austin in the draft two years ago. They should go out of their way to get the ball into Harvin's hands in an attempt to create big plays as nobody else on the roster has the same big play ability. He will get his 6+ touches a game and it will be up to him to turn a couple of those touches into big plays. As we have seen in the past, Harvin has more than enough talent to do so. There is also a psychological aspect to the change in teams that bodes well for Harvin. He is going to have a chip on his shoulder to prove Seattle wrong and Geno Smith's recent comments to the NY media show he too has a chip on his shoulder (as does Rex Ryan) and is aching to prove his detractors incorrect. Smith has plenty of experience playing with a Harvin clone (Tavon Austin) at West Virginia. Harvin could be just the guy that Smith needs to get his career headed back in a positive direction, especially if the Jets can incorporate some of the elements of the WVU offense into the pro game.
John Lee: the Jets seem to get Harvin for a bargain (a fourth round pick), but have no quarterback to get him the ball. Geno Smith is the worst-rated quarterback in the entire NFL and is showing no signs of improvement from his rookie year. To argue that the arrival of Percy Harvin will make the Jets a better team is difficult; Geno Smith is connecting on only 57% of his passes, which is more a reflection of him than the talent around him. (Despite being a poor run-blocking team, the Jets are slightly above-average in pass blocking per ProFootballFocus.) If Harvin is to make an impact, Rex Ryan and the Jets' coaching staff will have to be ingenuitive in designing plays to get him the ball in space...but if Pete Carroll could not do it, I'm not convinced Rex Ryan will be able to.
Stephen Holloway: I don't see significant changes for Geno Smith, who continues to struggle in his second season, or Eric Decker, who should continue to be the most targeted Jet. Harvin could steal some of the tight end targets from rookie Jace Amaro.
Scott Bischoff: I agree with Dan that Harvin is a big unknown entering a nice situation. I think it is fair to say that the best thing the Jets can do is to get the ball into Harvin's hands and that's via quick slants, wide receiver screens, and quick-hitting plays. That helps Geno Smith as he won't have to stand in the pocket to allow plays to develop, and he can make a quick, single read to hit Harvin near the line of scrimmage. The volume is great for Harvin and getting the offense moving will be a very good thing for Smith. Geno Smith will remain a fantasy backup but he should now be a clear number-two quarterback on fantasy rosters. I see him finishing the season in the QB15-20 range. I also think that tight end Jace Amaro will have a lot more room to operate in, and he could push into TE1 range with more targets. Amaro is already on pace for 62 catches, and I think that will tick a little higher.
Mark Wimer: As I have stated in the past, I am not a fan of Percy Harvin—I think that his play as a pro has NOT lived up to his usual billing of "a threat to take it to the house on every play," etc. In fact, his 6.0 yards-per-reception average so far this year is worse than even I expected to see—but he's always been lackluster on a yards-per-reception basis, or in terms of receiving touchdowns (no more than six receiving touchdowns in any season since turning pro). The expectations for Harvin in Seattle were always wildly optimistic given the fact that he has NEVER been over 1,000 yards receiving, and has only gone over 1,000 yards combined in one season.
Regarding his prospects with the Jets—I'm not sure that this serial assaulter of team-mates is going to suddenly become a good team player in New York City—and I agree with much of what John said about the leadership of the Jets' team and how it is hard to expect Rex Ryan to suddenly be able to use a player like Harvin properly when Pete Carroll couldn't make it work with Harvin in Seattle. Color me skeptical, friends.
In short, I will not be rushing out to add Jets' players as a result of the Harvin trade.
What impact will Harvin's arrival have on Eric Decker?
Jeff Pasquino: Eric Decker belongs as an NFL WR2, not a WR1, and Decker should be able to get open more now with defenses having to focus on Harvin first.
Dan Hindery: If Harvin can create some big plays, he will open up the entire Jets offense and prove beneficial to both Smith and Eric Decker. It is somewhat cliché to say, but it is true that the presence of Harvin makes life easier for other players because opposing defenses put so much thought and effort into stopping him. Using Harvin as a decoy on end-arounds, fake bubble screens and deep routes should open up more single coverage for Decker. Instead of facing Darrelle Revis twice a year, Decker may draw the second CB with teams focused on stopping Harvin.
John Lee: As I said earlier, the Jets' offense will continue to be hampered by Geno Smith; until they have a starting quarterback who can throw more touchdowns than interceptions, I cannot get behind any receiver in this offense, including Decker or Harvin. Chris Ivory is the only Jet I am willing to roster moving forward.
Ryan Hester: Eric Decker remains a WR2 candidate who might be a good buy-low right now because he does have touchdown ability and might be freed up vertically with Harvin stretching defenses side-to-side.
Scott Bischoff: I think this trade could open up the offense a little, and it could make life a little easier for Decker who should now be a high-end fantasy WR2. I believe it opens up his side of the field for deeper throws as teams account for Harvin's speed.
Where would you rank Harvin among the league's fantasy wide receivers from here on out?
Jeff Pasquino: I would put Harvin at around WR20-25 going forward once he shows that he is fully integrated into the Jets' offense.
Dan Hindery: As with Baldwin, I'd put Harvin on the fantasy WR2-WR3 fence for now. He's going to need to grow into the Jets' offense and become consistent in order to move solidly into fantasy WR2 territory.
Ryan Hester: He's just a WR3 in PPR leagues due to his dearth of touchdown potential. He would need six or more catches to get into WR2 range in any given week because he's not likely to score a touchdown, and in order to find him, his new quarterback will likely have to do so on short passes.
Stephen Holloway: Percy Harvin may surprise and produce with the Jets, but he will not do it on my team. He has amazing athletic skills, but he still seems to produce best on running plays and screens, just like he did at Florida. Despite his ability to break and avoid tackles, he averages 11.4 yards per reception because of the high number of extremely short routes that he runs. He had issues early in his career with migraines and you don't hear about him having them anymore, but he sure gives his coaches headaches.
Scott Bischoff: At the end of the day, I wouldn't trust Harvin to be more than a WR3 until we see how the Jets deploy him, partly because of the situation at quarterback and partly because there will be a lack of chemistry between Harvin and Smith early. For the rest of the season I see Harvin as a consistent WR2 in yardage and PPR leagues and a flex play in TD heavy leagues.
Bills running backs
The Bills have lost both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller for at least the next month (and in Spiller's case, probably for the season). That leaves Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon as the primary ball-carriers. Is this going to be a committee approach, or is one guy much more talented than the other?
Jeff Pasquino: Buffalo certainly wants to run the ball, and I would expect that the Bills split the backfield between Dixon and Brown at first—but they will ride the hot hand should one develop, and won't hesitate to do so. They traded for Brown thinking that he can be a true feature back, and now he gets his shot to prove that to be true. Kyle Orton has actually played very well for Buffalo, which gives the offense balance and keeps defenses from thinking run first, so should Brown get 15-20 touches a week he could be a solid fantasy RB2.
Phil Alexander: I have no doubt there will be plenty of value residing in the Buffalo backfield over the next four to five weeks. Fred Jackson was quietly the PPR RB9 before getting injured, and as Jeff pointed out, the Bills game plan each week is to establish the run. While they haven’t always been able to stick to their desired script this season (41:59 run-pass ratio), Buffalo still involves their running backs when in catch-up mode, as evidenced by Jackson’s 42 receptions.
Bryce Brown is 23 years old, 220 lbs., runs a 4.48 forty, and has flashed lead back ability at the pro level. There’s nothing in 27-year-old Anthony Dixon’s career profile (3.4 YPA) to suggest he’s the more enticing pickup, but I suppose a case can be made. He seems to think he’ll get the opportunity to be a work horse, he’s been active on game days ahead of Brown this season (albeit due to his special teams prowess), and possession could be nine tenths of the law with Dixon, who’s coming off an 18-touch performance.
If you need a fantasy running back to start this week, it may be a wiser move to put in a claim on Dixon, who I have a hunch will receive more carries than Brown initially. But if you can afford to grab one of these guys and stash him on your bench until we see how things shake out, take a home run swing on Brown, who’s the only one of these two capable of delivering you a championship.
John Lee: I have to disagree with Phil on this one. Despite Bryce Brown being more talented, Dixon is going to get his share of carries. The dreaded RBBC will likely play out with the Bills riding the 'hot hand' when either Brown or Dixon get off to a quick start, but it is difficult to envision either of them having any success against the quality of defenses they will face over the next month. The Bills' near-term schedule is not favorable for running backs—they face the Jets this week (8th against the rush) and have a bye week before going against the Chiefs, Dolphins (10th against the rush), and Jets again thereafter; that is four weeks out of the next five where any Bills' running back fantasy production will be likely be minimal...and that is assuming you guess the running back who gets the most action. By then, we arrive to Week #13 and Fred Jackson should be returning from injury, who should regain his starting position.
Where Brown is concerned, he is definitely the more talented back, but his tendency to lose the ball has to be a real concern for Buffalo, a team that is ranked 27th in the NFL in points scored per game (Dixon has never fumbled). With the upcoming tough schedule, Dixon ahead of him on the depth charts, and Fred Jackson likely returning in a month, there is little reason to be excited about Bryce Brown.
Ryan Hester: The answer to "is this going to be a committee approach, or is one guy more talented than the other" is yes. Brown has the game-breaking skill and pass-catching ability to be able to be a guy who can get the ball in space and make splash plays. However, this team's running game and offensive playing style requires a committee approach. They'd like to play fast and run hard if they can control the game enough to do it, so both Brown and Dixon have value starting this week as flex-level players, though the Jets are a difficult matchup despite their last two weeks.
Stephen Holloway: The Bills have not been as successful running the ball this season as I had expected. They rank 19th in rushes per game, 23rd in rushing yards per game and 16th in yards per carry. Even more surprising is that Anthony Dixon leads the team with 5.1 yards per carry. Dixon was an all-purpose running back for Mississippi State and led the Bulldogs in rushing in each of his four seasons. He also had 56 receptions and averaged 8.0 ypr. He has not been used as a receiver much in the NFL, but he is capable. He has had rushing opportunities already in four games in 2014 and is ready to plug and play as witnessed by his 13 carries for 51 yards and three catches for 15 more in last week's game with the Vikings. It would not surprise me if Dixon was the lead back as long as Jackson is out. However, Jackson could return in only four weeks and the schedule is tough while he is out, with the Bills facing the Jets (8th), Chiefs (18th), Dolphins (10th) and Jets (8th) again. Dixon will be challenged to produce at RB2 status through that stretch, even if Brown's role is slim and it should be at least 40% and possibly more.
Scott Bischoff: Much like everyone else, I agree with the sentiment that there will be a committee approach here early as the Bills transition to Dixon and Brown. I see a scenario where Brown works a bunch between the 20’s as he is a far better athlete. He is not near as dynamic as Spiller and a touch more athletic than Jackson. Dixon will remain in the mix and most likely get significant work near the goal line. I think Brown will see about 65 percent of the running back workload but Dixon will see more touchdowns on the next 4-5 weeks. I see Brown as a flex play in yardage and PPR formats and Dixon as a vulture type in TD heavy leagues.
Rams running backs
We talked a few weeks ago about Zac Stacy potentially losing carries to his teammates, but at the time Benny Cunningham seemed like the bigger threat than Tre Mason. If we held a fantasy draft today for the second half of the season, where would you rank Mason among running backs? Can Zac Stacy be dropped in 12-team leagues—both redraft and dynasty?
Jeff Pasquino: Tre Mason is emerging now, just like Stacy did at about this same time last year. He has the talent and as long as the Rams are moving the ball with Austin Davis, Mason would be a decent RB2 with upside, somewhere around RB20-25, especially with all of the injuries (and suspensions) starting to pile up across the NFL running backs through seven weeks.
Stacy's value is declining each week, and Mason's fresh legs and ability has shown to most observers that Mason is more legit than Stacy—and Stacy's reduced playing time indicates that the coaches see the same thing. Can he be cut completely? That depends on the depth of the league, but barring an injury to Mason I just don't see Stacy being productive enough to warrant a roster spot for 2014. He may get another shot later on (2015+) which would warrant a roster spot in a Dynasty league, but that depends on the depth of the league. I would keep him in most formats as I see him in the Top 50-60 running backs, which are all usually rostered in Dynasty.
Phil Alexander: Tre Mason looked like a star last week against the Seahawks. If forced to choose between him and either of the Bills’ running backs, I’m taking Maseo’s kid with zero hesitation. Zac Stacy was considered a top 15 back by many analysts coming into the season, and while I may not go that high on Mason if we were drafting today, it’s certainly within his range of outcomes. My only hesitation would be the schedule, as the Rams play the Chiefs, 49ers, Cardinals, and Broncos in the next four games. Each team ranks inside the Top-10 at limiting fantasy points to opposing running backs. And yes, Zac Stacy can be dropped in 12-team leagues.
John Lee: Zac Stacy has lost his fantasy luster; he is losing carries every week and has only a single touchdown on the season. I think it is safe to drop him in all formats at this juncture.
I would not get terribly excited about Tre Mason in redraft leagues just yet, but that has nothing to do with his talent or fantasy potential. The Rams' defense is yielding nearly 30 points per game to their opponents, which has largely affected their ability to run the ball; they are currently ranked seventh in pass attempts per game (36.7), but only 27th in rush attempts per game (25.8), which severely dampens any fantasy value for any member of the Rams' backfield. In dynasty format, however, I would stash Tre Mason and feel confident that his value will take a big jump next year when this young team has an additional year of experience and can better support the running game.
Ryan Hester: Zac Stacy's redraft value is basically none right now. He's safe to drop in 12-team redraft leagues. In terms of dynasty leagues, they're all so different and most are pretty deep, so I'm not going to venture a guess at whether he's droppable there as it depends on league size. As for Mason, I may miss the boat, but I'm not as high on him as many others seem to be. He's a wildly inexperienced pass-blocker after coming from a run-heavy, option-style collegiate offense.
This means he's unlikely to be on the field for passing downs. Despite St. Louis' last two strong showings against division rivals San Francisco and Seattle, they're not a team that will be staying competitive in games all season long. While I'm sure Mason can receive the ball better than a guy like Alfred Morris, he's quite similar to Washington's running back because he can phased out of a game completely without actually doing anything wrong. That's a dangerous floor to play with in fantasy football.
Stephen Holloway: Mason had excellent production when he finally got an opportunity. Even while playing against two tough defenses in Seattle and San Francisco, Mason averaged 5.4 ypc on 23 carries, a full yard and a half more than Stacy or Cunningham have produced thus far. Mason has had only one target and one catch over those two games, however. Cunningham has been effective as a receiver and should continue to garner those opportunities. I favor Mason slightly overall, but Cunningham can also be productive in PPR leagues. Even though Coach Fisher continues to talk up Stacy, he has lost his grip on lead back and can be dropped, particularly in redraft leagues.
Scott Bischoff: One has to wonder if Stacy is banged up and that’s leading to what has happened here. Clearly he isn’t the same player he was last year and it has opened the door to Cunningham and now to Mason. I think it is far too soon to give this job to Mason, and I like him, but he only has 23 professional carries and as Ryan pointed out, he isn’t reliable on third down and he’ll come off the field in situations when the Rams are down in games. To answer the question, I would put Mason in the flex range of running backs but I would go in understanding his floor is much lower than that. It would be different if the Rams were up in games like they were versus Seattle, but that won’t be the cases looking at their upcoming schedule.
Clearly, Stacy has been a giant disappointment, but it is too soon to outright drop him. I think he is hurt and I think he will have an opportunity to get back into the lineup when he gets right. Ultimately it’s a question as to the room on your bench, and if there’s room I would hold onto him in both formats, especially in dynasty leagues.
Mark Wimer: I would think that barring significant injury to Mason, he is now the lead back for the Rams—it wouldn't surprise me to see Zac Stacy as a healthy scratch some weeks going forwards. In terms of his redraft value, Mason probably will fall on the cusp between fantasy running back number two and a flex option most weeks—a serviceable bye-week filler or a guy to grab if your fantasy running back stable has been decimated by injury. On such a young offense there are bound to be growing pains, which will make Mason even more variable from week to week than he might be on a more veteran squad.
Jaguars running backs
Last week's effort by Denard Robinson was by far the best game by any of the Jaguars' running backs this season, and it looks like he'll be the starter going forward. Who do you like better from here on out between him and Tre Mason? Can Toby Gerhart be dropped in twelve-team leagues?
Jeff Pasquino: I have a hard time trusting any back in the Jacksonville backfield, especially one that looks so thin and fragile as Robinson. He looks like he is one good hit away from being sidelined for a while, and I have a difficult time believing he can be a between the tackles runner. At under 200 pounds, Jacksonville is going to pair him with Gerhart when both are healthy, but they will likely use Robinson as more of a perimeter rusher and receiver out of the backfield and let Gerhart run it up the middle. I'd rather have Robinson than Gerhart, especially in a PPR league, but I'd take Tre Mason over both by quite a wide margin.
Phil Alexander: If I were ranking this week’s top waiver backs, I’d go Mason > Brown > Dixon > Robinson. Robinson’s breakout is made less impressive when you consider it came against the Browns, who allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The Jaguars have the 29th ranked offensive line per Football Outsiders, and (perhaps not) coincidentally, they also rank 29th in running back fantasy scoring this season. To make matters worse, the Jacksonville defense has been horrendous, and they’re not helped by Blake Bortles, whose propensity for throwing interceptions keeps them fighting losing battles against poor field position. Robinson is an interesting prospect, and definitely the Jaguars’ back to own, but favorable game scripts (like the one he enjoyed against Cleveland) will be hard to come by going forward. The time to drop Toby Gerhart in redraft leagues was weeks ago.
John Lee: The Jaguars have the third worst offensive line for rush blocking (per ProFootballFocus) and will likely be playing from behind for 90% of their remaining games; for that reason alone, it is difficult to get excited about any running back, Gerhart included, on the Jacksonville squad. Denard Robinson had a very nice game last week, but let's not forget it was against the Browns, who are ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (155). To expect similar output in future games is nothing more than wishful thinking. Stay away.
Neither Robinson, nor Mason get me excited about their prospects this year, but Mason is my choice between those two simply because he has a better offensive line and his team will be able to keep games close...something that the Jaguars cannot do to support Robinson's fantasy production.
Ryan Hester: Jacksonville's offensive line still isn't good, and their performance against Cleveland doesn't just flip the switch on that. Cleveland was without three of their top five defensive linemen for the game and had been getting creased by the run all year heading into Week 7. Robinson was the beneficiary of great volume, decent scheme, and a large amount of opponent inferiority. Add in the fact that Jacksonville had a run-friendly game script (something that almost definitely won't happen every week), and Robinson's showing might be a mirage.
As for dynasty purposes, I prefer Mason. He'll learn to pass-block eventually, and he's showing the abilities of a traditional NFL running back. He's compact but big enough to handle being beaten up, and he runs very hard. Toby Gerhart can be dropped in redraft leagues.
Stephen Holloway: Robinson had a great day rushing for 127 yards, more than any other Jaguar running back has on the season. Caution must be exercised going forward as the Jaguars will be behind in most of their games and unable to run as effectively or as often as they did against the woeful Browns rushing defense. I would rank prefer to pick up either Mason or Cunningham over Robinson, but all three will likely be waiver-wire selections with the many running back injuries and disappointments thus far in 2014. In dynasty, Mason is the top choice all day long.
Scott Bischoff: Much like the Mason situation, I think Robinson’s game is more anomaly than anything going forward. Robinson is little, and he has a history of being banged up at Michigan carrying the ball far fewer than he will if he is to be fantasy relevant in the NFL. I like Mason better throughout this season as Mason can physically handle the workload and Robinson will not, and Robinson is far more suited to be a complimentary piece, which brings us to Gerhart. It’s tough to find running backs who can handle a full workload and Gerhart definitely can, but he has been injured and has never found a rhythm in Jacksonville. Sometimes we need to be patient, and if you have room you should hold Gerhart for later this season. Gerhart might be a player I would target for a very cheap price in dynasty leagues with the intent of storing him for next year.
Mark Wimer: I agree with Jeff's analysis of the Jacksonville running back situation—I am not sold on Denard Robinson and have avoided picking him up, which most likely means that I've lost my chance to roster him in most leagues—but I am at peace with that as I don't see him as an effective back in the middle-to-long-term. Like Jeff, I would prefer to roster Mason over Robinson—Bortles is turning the ball over so much right now that scoring opportunities are going to be few and far between for Robinson and company.
Players who've earned more touches
There seem to be a few players who have performed well on limited touches, but their touches have stayed curiously limited nonetheless. Pick a player who fits that description and provide an educated guess about whether he'll actually get more touches over the second half of the season, substantially increasing his fantasy value.
Jeff Pasquino: The first name that comes to mind for players who have performed well on limited touches is Antone Smith. Smith has scored in five of seven contests this year with crazy stats on a per-touch basis (16-136-2 rushing, 12-219-3 receiving). You would think that Smith's 8.5 yards per carry and 18.25 yards per reception would earn him more than 2-6 chances a game, but the Falcons are using him as a situational player that can really change the field. Smith has broken off some plays that looked like short gainers and just taken off with the ball, but Atlanta has yet to get him the ball enough. I think that the Falcons will use Smith more the rest of the way as Atlanta has to decide what their backfield plans will be for 2015 (Smith is a free agent, Steven Jackson has one year left but is aging fast, and Devonta Freeman is a young prospect).
Phil Alexander: This one’s for deep leagues only, but Brice Butler has my attention. He’s emerging as a deep threat for strong-armed rookie Derek Carr, catching passes of 47 and 55 yards in Oakland’s last two games. The former San Diego State Aztec wasn't a combine invite entering the 2013 draft, but his Pro Day 40-yard dash time (4.36), broad jump (10’9), and vertical (39”) would have landed him in the top three of each drill that year. True degenerates who played preseason Daily Fantasy Sports will recall Butler finished third in receiving yards, and tied for first with four touchdowns before the games started counting. Among receivers with at least 10 targets this year, Butler’s 13.36 yards per target ranks him behind only the aforementioned Antone Smith for the league lead.
Can Butler actually start seeing enough playing time to be worth our while this year? It's entirely possible. The Raiders are going nowhere, and it would make sense for them to start getting a look at their younger players—especially those who deliver big plays every week despite limited snaps. There's no need to pick him up just yet, but if you see the 6’3’’, 210 lb. Butler’s snap count spike, sprint for the wire—splash plays will ensue.
John Lee: Ahmad Bradshaw is the player that immediately comes to mind.
Through seven games, Bradshaw is in the top 20 in total rushing yards (336) and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry on the season, not to mention scoring six touchdowns as a receiver out of the backfield. Despite his success, Bradshaw is only getting 10 carries per game and is playing only 47.7% of the Colts' offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Trent Richardson is getting a bigger workload on a similar snap count and putting up pedestrian numbers—he is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry and has two touchdowns on the season.
None of this makes any sense, except to say that the Colts' organization, from the front office down to the coaching staff, seems determined to prove to the fan base that Richardson was worth the first round pick that they traded for him last year. As we near mid-season, there is no reason to believe that Pep Hamilton will give Bradshaw increased snaps due to his success or else that would have happened already. Temper your expectations.
Ryan Hester: Travis Kelce was the guy who immediately came to mind for me. Cordarrelle Patterson is another player who should get the ball more on his mediocre offense. I know he has route-running issues, but I'd use him simply on handoffs if I had to. Digging deeper (and perhaps this is even deeper than Phil went), I can think of two wide receivers who should be on the field seeing more targets.
The first is Donte Moncrief in Indianapolis. If Hakeem Nicks' physical abilities were once a giant block of ice, they're currently a puddle on the floor. With their young core of explosive players, Indianapolis has no upside playing Nicks. They have a nice lead in their division, they have other playmakers who can carry the load while Moncrief gets his feet wet, and playing him more now gives him a chance to develop more chemistry with Andrew Luck in future seasons. Reports in camp were that Moncrief was like a puppy dog following Reggie Wayne everywhere to learn how he did everything. Now, with Wayne injured, it's time for Moncrief to follow Wayne into the starting lineup and see five-to-seven targets per game.
The next young receiver deserving of more looks is Martavis Bryant in Pittsburgh. ESPN made a significant deal about Bryant being activated for the first time in his young career. This was mainly because they were lacking of any "fringe" stories about Houston and Pittsburgh after getting past the "Watt against Roethlisberger" marquee topic. But Bryant delivered in the game, securing a 35-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter.
He also had legitimate chances on deep throws on two other occasions. On the first one, he ran a bad stop-and-go route and still had two steps on the defender but was overthrown (in part because he didn't "go" fast enough on the stop-and-go). Bryant deserves a shot in part because of what he did but even more so because of what Markus Wheaton isn't doing.
Wheaton and Roethlisberger aren't even in the same book lately. Wheaton appears to run incorrect routes at least once per game, and he's actually making Roethlisberger look wildly inaccurate. But when it's first-year starter against two-time Super Bowl winner, I tend to think the youngster is wrong—not the veteran. Bryant deserves to take some of Wheaton's snaps soon and should take most of them by season's end.
Stephen Holloway: Kenny Stills' preseason injury kept him off the practice field for much of the preseason and he his opportunity was lost to the extremely successful rookie Brandin Cooks. Stills missed the first game, but he has played in every game since, but averages only four targets per game. Prior to last week, he had minimal success, catching only 10 passes for 141 yards and no touchdowns. With Graham slowed and Pierre Thomas out for a while, Stills could see more targets. He averages a very nice 18.8 yards per reception and has scored six touchdowns on 47 career receptions. He could be consistently productive if Graham is slow to return and even more so, if one of Cooks or Colston were to miss games.
Scott Bischoff: Two more players deserving of more time than they have received so far are Washington running back Roy Helu and Lions running back Theo Riddick. Helu is a super reliable third down specialist, and he has caught 20 out of 23 targets through seven games but he has only carried the ball 25 times total in 2014. He is averaging 5.4 yards per carry though and he might be a nice change of pace for the Washington offense. Riddick is in a very intriguing situation as he is clearly a change-of-pace back behind Reggie Bush, but he attacks the defense more decisively than Bush and he is just as shifty and elusive as Bush is with the ball. Bush has been dealing with ankle issues and it might open the door for Riddick who has been dealing with a hamstring issue himself. The Lions need more from Riddick to lighten Bush's workload and Riddick could really shine with that opportunity.
Ryan Tannehill
If we were holding a fantasy draft for just the second half of the season, where would you rank Ryan Tannehill among quarterbacks?
Jeff Pasquino: Ryan Tannehill is not a QB1 by any stretch of the imagination, but his ability to both throw and run in a productive fashion certainly puts him in the solid QB2 category. I would have him somewhere around QB15-18 as he seems to now have a true WR1 (Mike Wallace), is getting production from a tight end (Charles Clay), and has the benefit of a decent running back (Lamar Miller) on top of Tannehill's own rushing ability. Would I start him most weeks? Probably not, but I would use him for my QB1 on a bye week without hesitation.
Ryan Hester: Tannehill has proven quite effective, particularly because his running ability supplements his fantasy scores. If the season started today, I'd probably draft him around QB15. There are players I'd draft ahead of him who have played worse at times (Tom Brady), but those players have either shown signs of improvement or have the pedigree to make me think they'll improve.
Stephen Holloway: I agree with Jeff and Ryan that Tannehill ranks in about the QB18 range and I would probably still not draft him until then. The Dolphins' rushing success continues to limit their passing production. Despite ranking 12th in offense, the Dolphins are 22nd in passing yardage per game. Tannehill has not had one game with over 300 yards passing. Even considering that he has rushed for an average of 44 yards in three straight games, there are simply too many quarterbacks with better passing production to consider Tannehill any higher than QB18.
Scott Bischoff: Tannehill has been adequate as a fantasy backup but looking at the Dolphins second half schedule, it's not going to be easy on the Dolphins. They get Jacksonville this week, but then they get San Diego, Detroit, Buffalo, Denver, Baltimore, New England, Minnesota and the Jets twice. I'm not saying there aren't matchups to exploit, but there aren't enough to make him more than quarterback 20 for the second half.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.