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This week we discuss the following:
- Struggling Wide Receivers
- Quarterbacks on the rise
- Jerick McKinnon
- Hillman and Oliver
- Antone Smith
- Wide receivers on the rise
- DeMarco Murray
- Struggling running backs
- Jordan Reed
Struggling wide receivers
Percy Harvin. Keenan Allen. Wes Welker. Cordarrelle Patterson.
Which ones are most likely to recover some fantasy value this season, and which should be written off as wasted picks?
Andy Hicks: All the players listed still have a little bit of value, but they are truly testing the patience of their owners.
Keenan Allen has performed the best, if that word can be used, out of these four players with 28 receptions for 296 yards. Of most concern is his zero touchdowns, when Philip Rivers has thrown for 15 of them. Outside his big game against Jacksonville he has been as poor as the others though. Those that have been burned by the second year busts of boom rookies like Mike Williams, Eddie Royal, Michael Clayton etc. of the past are dreading Keenan Allen joining that list. I wouldn't write him off just yet though as he is getting the targets of a WR2, he just isn't converting them into fantasy points. He cost you a high pick and unless you are loaded, he is worth at least a couple more weeks to see if he can get back on track. He is reported to have leg injuries and while most players in the NFL are carrying something at this stage of the year, he is struggling to reach his performance levels of last year.
Cordarrelle Patterson is not coping with expectations, especially once Adrian Peterson was not the primary focus of opposing defenses. When Peterson was there Patterson was able to break out with three rushing attempts for 102 yards, including his spectacular 67 yard run. As a receiver he has been average all year though and I feel he can be safely benched or dropped in smaller leagues. He could follow up on his promise, but the Vikings are struggling to move the ball on offense and Patterson is not getting open enough and using his game breaking skills.
Wes Welker has been back for only three weeks and still has use, especially in PPR leagues. His first two games were six- and seven-catch efforts at about nine yards a reception, before he was barely used against the Jets. His 10 touchdowns on 73 receptions last year artificially inflated his worth this year and given the significant drop in targets from his Patriot days he is as I expected this year, a WR3 at best now. Manning has an array of targets ahead of Welker now in both Demaryius and Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Fourth in line is still useful in the Broncos offense, just not what some expected.
Percy Harvin is the interesting one. I had doubts heading into this year for two reasons: (1) He had barely played for almost two years; and (2) the Seahawks rely on their defensive and running game, and Russell Wilson is not the kind of quarterback to heavily lean on one receiver. Harvin has however been a strong part of the offense in four of their five games to date with at least six touches in those four games. In the game where he had only three touches he registered a touchdown. As his owners will no doubt know, his stat line would look a whole lot better if even one of those three touchdowns against the Washington team counted. Alas, they didn't, and Harvin looks like a fantasy afterthought. He will not return the value that his draft price dictated, but could still have several solid games before the end of the fantasy season. He is a must start in leagues that start three wide receivers (or two wide receivers and a flex) and is still the only Seahawks receiver worth owning.
Matt Waldman: Allen is in decent shape to produce at a better clip if his nagging leg injury has gotten better. On paper, it would seem that Allen should benefit from Eddie Royal's injury as well. However, I was saying in the summer that on paper, Allen was a borderline WR1 and Philip Rivers manages to target the likes of Royal, Antonio Gates, and Malcom Floyd with greater fantasy efficiency. Remember, Rivers was the same quarterback who, a few years ago, had top-10 production at his position with the likes of Seyi Ajirotutu and other journeymen has-beens/once-weres/and never-will-bes. I'd still consider Allen, but anything more than WR3 expectations in an offense that has been winning without his production is risky. There's also the possibility that Ladarius Green earns more of Royal's production.
Percy Harvin is a massive talent. I know some writers who will disagree with this notion because his box score stats look bad, but they weren't taught the word "context." Harvin is suffering a bit from the New Orleans-Reggie Bush Factor and I'm not talking about the desire to make foolish decisions that cost the player yards because he's trying to be a human highlight film on every play. The positive New Orleans-Reggie Bush Factor for a team that is a negative result for fantasy owners is the one I'm referencing: Harvin's alignment, shifts, and usage does as much or more for the offense when he doesn't get the ball as when he does earn a touch.
I wouldn't completely give up on Harvin's production yet. The Seahawks have made changes to its offense after the first half of the season during the past two seasons. Both years, Russell Wilson went down field more often than what we've seen thus far. Wilson's deep target percentage is among the lowest of active starters this season and I expect this percentage to have nowhere to go but up.
With Seahawks are 4-2 and despite some clear rough spots the offense hasn't forced the coaching staff to assess its game plan. However, a home loss—the first in years—will put the team on notice. One thing I have seen during the past six weeks is far too much reliance on Harvin at or near the line of scrimmage. As we saw in Minnesota, Harvin is capable of getting open in the intermediate and deep ranges of the field and the game plan has to do some things where Harvin isn't solely a horizontal distraction to get other players open in the intermediate range of the field.
Again, Wilson and his current deep ball frugality is not indicative of the Wilson who averaged over eight yards per attempt in the second half of 2012 and all of 2013. I'm not as confident about starting Harvin in leagues that start only two wide receivers, but in leagues where you start four, I'm still holding on.
Patterson's problems are easy to identify: (1) He doesn't run routes like a veteran professional, and (2) the Vikings offensive line doesn't afford its quarterback time in the pocket to go downfield. I've studied Patterson at Tennessee and now Minnesota and the young receiver has not developed a consistent, technique-savvy approach to releasing from the line of scrimmage to force a defender to turn his hips and run. This is a problem regardless of the defender playing off coverage or pressing Patterson at the line.
What Patterson does best is win the ball in the air with his athleticism or use that athleticism to make plays after the catch that would make Gale Sayers nod with approval. Unfortunately, great athletes at wide receiver still don't get proper position on a break or get free of a defender if they aren't disciplined with working into the body of the defender and using the hands and feet to stack (get hip-to-hip) and shed the man. Receivers like Patterson are too prone to run away from defenders too early—relying more on their speed and not technique—rather than attacking the defender's position and force the defender to turn. This analysis of a receiver failing to do this on a fade route is a good example.
Watch the Vikings offense and you'll see a lot of quick plays off short drops or Bridgewater checking down due to a lack of time. The quick plays are often play action slants, wide receiver screens with some play action or misdirection to set up the throw, crossing routes, and quick comebacks. Norv Turner is doing what he can with his current personnel, but Matt Asiata and this offensive line do not scare defenses.
Patterson may generate some big plays down the stretch, but I'm not counting on him in my fantasy leagues.
Chad Parsons: I like Cordarrelle Patterson to rebound in the second half of the season. It's hard not to. I trust the athletic talent and his anointment as a WR1 for 2014 was likely the 'year too early' clause we get about high-upside young players from time to time. On the flip side, I am weary of older receivers like Wes Welker that fall off, and Denver has plenty of weapons to not force the ball to Welker. Relying on quickness, Welker's margin for error to maintain his 'edge' over the middle was a ticking time bomb for the past year or two.
Matt Harmon: I’m a well-known sucker for Cordarrelle Patterson. I have to trust in the talent evaluation, and that the team will begin to feature him more in the second half of the season. You just cannot drop a player of his caliber and upside, but you also cannot start him at this time. It may never happen this season, but I am willing to ride it out.
None of the other players really excite me.
Welker is fourth in line for targets in the Denver passing game, and may be falling behind the running backs in general offensive priority.
There is too much variability to trust Keenan Allen as a no-hesitation starter anymore. Some weeks, he’ll see five or fewer targets based on the game plan. I trust he’ll be better than what the numbers we’ve seen so far, but not by a drastic amount. If I had to bet my savings, I suppose Allen would be my choice.
Percy Harvin is a boom-or-bust player. You can play him, but only safely as a WR3. Harvin has volume in some weeks, but low yardage and touchdown totals scare me off.
Will Grant: I like Patterson's talent, but I think the issue with him is that he's in Minnesota. Without Adrian Peterson to pull the defensive focus, and a bunch of questionable quarterbacks with just three passing touchdowns between them, it's going to be hard for any of the Minnesota receiving corps to perform at a high level. Patterson might be worth picking up if he's in a league that awards points for punt and kick returns, but aside from that, I think he's going to underperform all season.
As others have pointed out, Welker too looks like a busted pick because he's really the fourth receiving option on the team. Manning is going to throw a ton of passes this season, but Welker's opportunity to catch them will be limited.
Keenan Allen is probably the guy that I'd stick with if you have him on your team. He's had 24 targets over the last three games, so he's clearly an important part of the offense. He just hasn't been coming down with the big receptions that we saw from him last season. Give him a little more time. He's a solid talent and he's going to turn those opportunities into bigger plays.
Quarterbacks on the rise
Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, and Tom Brady have been inconsistent this season, but they all seem to be getting hot right now. Who has the best chance for sustained success from here on out?
Matt Waldman: All three have a solid chance and I'd probably trade for any of the three in a package deal if I could get a quality starter at another position in return.
Newton is the most promising talent of the three because he hangs in the pocket with the best of them and still has the mobility to make plays outside its confines. Kelvin Benjamin is playing excellent football for a rookie, and his skill to make plays in physical coverage makes it even more difficult for opposing defenses to focus solely on Greg Olsen. The Panthers still need more consistent production from the ground game and a second outside option with more all-around skill, so Newton is my lowest-ranked of the three as it comes to success moving forward.
Brady and Belichick will continue to figure out ways to make this offense work. Still, the offensive line has to prove for multiple weeks that it has solidified its play before I'm sold. Rob Gronkowski is workmanlike with a lot of targets, which is good, but he's not playing like the dominant force he was pre-injuries. The ground game is also a question mark without Ridley (and Blount) and I'm not sold on James White as the answer. I'd consider Brady above Newton because I have more trust in Belichick's coaching crew than Ron Rivera's in Carolina—even if the skill talent is about even.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but Flacco might be my top choice. The offensive line is playing well, the ground game is clicking and has multiple running backs capable of getting the job done, and Steve Smith, Owen Daniels, and Torrey Smith are a solid trio of receivers. The Smiths in particular are dangerous and I wouldn't be surprised if slot option Michael Campanaro, who was hurt during the summer but caught a touchdown pass in the first half last week, becomes helpful option for the offense by year's end even if his presence aids teammates more than fantasy owners.
Chad Parsons: While the rushing production has been vacant until this past week, Cam Newton has been showing improvement as a pure pocket passing along the way. Add back even half of his former rushing numbers and Newton is an easy weekly starter and the clear preferred option down the stretch over Brady and Flacco.
Andy Hicks: With 46 pass attempts and 17 rushing attempts, Cam Newton is going to produce fantasy stats. Anyone want to hazard a guess on a repeat? To put it into perspective, before the shootout against the Bengals, Newton had only six games previous in his career to date with more than 10 rushing attempts and 17 was by far a career high. Newton had not also attempted 40 passes since his rookie season, let alone 46. Opportunity in this case led to a great fantasy day. He may have a few more this season, but Cam has had a lot of injury issues this year and with Greg Olsen also a bit sore the passing offense has a limited ceiling. If the Panthers can get one or both of their veteran running backs and not guys who were on the scrap heap a few weeks ago, then it will give some semblance of balance to the offense and at this stage I'd have Newton as a bottom end QB1.
Same with Joe Flacco: five passing touchdowns against a poor Buccaneers outfit is a hard game to replicate on a regular basis. The previous week he didn't throw a touchdown pass, failed to make 250 yards, and threw an interception to boot. He is best played as part of a committee or a weak QB1 option, which is a big improvement on last year's sterile performance.
Tom Brady, on the other hand, seems to have found some rhythm on offense and, probably not coincidentally, Rob Gronkowski is back to full health. Add in Brandon LaFell presenting himself as a reliable receiver and Brady just may be truly a player on the rise. Now at age 37 and with the running game having all kinds of question marks, Brady only presents himself also as a bottom end QB1 as well.
Adam Harstad: I wouldn't say that Cam Newton has been inconsistent; on the contrary, he's finished with between 250 and 285 passing yards in four of his five games, and he's thrown for a touchdown in each contest. The big difference this last week was simply that he got unleashed in the running game. Newton had 14 carries for 42 yards in his first four games, and the team called few designed runs to take advantage of his skills. This last week, Newton demolished his year-to-date production with 17 carries for 107 yards, many of them designed. As Newton continues to get healthier, his rushing skills will play a bigger and bigger role. He's a better passer than he's been at any point of his career, and the prospect of adding all that rushing production back makes him my clear choice for the best fantasy quarterback going forward.
Justin Bonnema: Cam Newton is going to finish as a top-10 quarterback. Once the Panthers get through their Week 8 engagement with the Seahawks it's smooth sailing for the rest of the season, especially as his chemistry with Kelvin Benjamin grows. I'm not as confident about Flacco or Brady, but both will at least offer good streaming options.
Matt Harmon: It’s Cam Newton; and there is not a single doubt in my mind. Newton is playing the best football of his career right now. He’s a fully developed passer. He’s throwing with unreal velocity and is more accurate than we have ever seen him. Add in that Cam’s legs have returned to full strength as one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL, and you have a fantasy stud. Kelvin Benjamin’s presence only adds to the appeal. This is a top-five quarterback the rest of the way.
Will Grant: Brady has proven time and again that he can throw to the water boy and he'll be productive. He's had a few ups and downs, but overall, he's going to be a solid quarterback option the rest of the way. As others have mentioned, Newton has been inconsistent early, but as he builds rapport with his new receiving corps, he's going to consistently improve. He has battled injury early but as he gets better and stronger, you can expect his rushing stats to increase, making him the offensive threat that people want from him.
Adam Harstad: Also worth noting: the Carolina Panthers quarterbacks, as a unit, have scored the 4th-most fantasy points in the NFL. If you prorate to account for byes, they fall to fifth behind the Broncos. Even after Brady and Flacco's recent explosions, the Ravens and Patriots rank 10th and 12th. If you pro-rate the teams who have had their byes, Baltimore and New England fall to 12th and 14th in quarterback production.
Jerick McKinnon
Jerick McKinnon appears to have taken over as the starting running back in Minnesota. We all understand that he's not Adrian Peterson, but he does appear to have some intriguing talent. Is the Vikings' offense going to allow him to achieve strong fantasy-RB2 status going forward this season?
Matt Waldman: McKinnon will continue to split with Asiata in this offense and he's purely a fantasy RB2 matchup play against bad defenses and a bye-week/flex shot with a puncher's chance for a breakaway run against better options. McKinnon is a physical talent, but he's still learning the nuances of playing it in a non-option offense behind a bad offensive line and a rookie quarterback. There's only so much I expect in this situation.
Chad Parsons: The touchdowns will be tough to come by, but the ability to break down a defender one-on-one is evident for McKinnon. Let's remember this is a top-100 draft pick that did not even play running back full-time in college...at a no-name school. McKinnon is progressing at a rapid rate (remember the 'impressing Adrian Peterson' news items in the offseason?). Without much touchdown upside (outside of breaking long-range runs), I put McKinnon in the RB15-25 range for the rest of the season.
Andy Hicks: Until we see something from the Vikings offense, he presents no better than a flex option. When the key piece of the offense in Adrian Peterson is no longer there, the inexperience and lack of talent is evident in Minnesota and if opposing defenses let the Minnesota offense learn on the run, then McKinnon could be better than a flex option, but I wouldn't count on it.
Adam Harstad: He's absolutely a strong fantasy RB2. Since Peterson left, Minnesota's running back corps is 15th in fantasy points. It'd be one thing if Minnesota looked like it was going to be using an RBBC, but if this last game was anything to go by, they're opting for a complete switch. McKinnon played three times as many snaps as Asiata and had 17 touches to Asiata's three. If the backs maintain those ratios going forward—or really, anything close to those ratios—then McKinnon will be an every-week starter in all fantasy formats.
Justin Bonnema: Jerick McKinnon is so talented but talent and opportunity don't always run parallel. He'll still lose out on goal line carries to Asiata, and even if his usage continues to grow, the Vikings offense can't be relied on. I'll keep him stashed or throw him out as a flex option but expectations are low.
Matt Harmon: No, I do not think he's a fantasy RB2. McKinnon has some electrifying ability, and great physical talent. However, there will be far too many weeks when he sees a low workload and does not break a big run. If this were a better offense with a stronger line, I’d be quicker to buy in as a consistent starting option this year.
Hillman and Oliver
What are the odds that Ronnie Hillman will retain a major role in the Broncos' offense after Montee Ball returns from injury? How about Branden Oliver after Ryan Mathews returns?
Matt Waldman: Brandon Oliver and Ronnie Hillman are competent, but not special. Oliver's low center of gravity and effort makes him a difficult out for defenders who get lazy and try to hit rather than hit and wrap. It was a huge reason for his success against the Jets two weeks ago. I think there was a lot of hand-wringing last year about Danny Woodhead taking away Ryan Mathews last year and it turned out to be the opposite. I think Oliver earns change-of-pace carries and a role rotating with Mathews early on, but if Mathews looks healthy enough, I don't think Oliver will be a significant fantasy option down the stretch. By Week 12, I have doubts that Oliver will be a consistent flex option.
Hillman has more top-end speed than Oliver, but he lacks strength. Hillman's pass protection is also inconsistent. I think Hillman has a greater chance to maintain viable production because I doubt Montee Ball will be completely healthy enough to contribute at a consistently high level when fantasy owners need him. Hillman and Manning left opportunities on the field last week in the passing game and I expect the quarterback and runner to iron this out. Even if I think Hillman will be a more reliable option than Oliver by Week 12 due to Ball's injury, I'm not targeting either option at this point.
Chad Parsons: I have more confidence in Oliver being a Danny Woodhead 2013 option with the incumbent starter back in the mix (Mathews is a not a high-volume passing down back historically anyway) than Hillman supplanting Ball in a significant way.
Adam Harstad: I wouldn't want to bet on Hillman continuing to play a big role once Ball is healthy. Denver's coaches have had more than a year to evaluate the two backs and had come to the conclusion that Ball was substantially better; Ball played 70% of the offensive snaps in each of his games, and prior to Ball's injury against Seattle Hillman had only played a single snap. It's possible that Ronnie Hillman plays so well in the coming weeks that he forces the team to consider expanding his role, but based on his career to date, I wouldn't bet too much on it.
Branden Oliver, on the other hand, has been a revelation for the Chargers, and with Woodhead gone for the season, I could easily see Oliver retaining flex value after Mathews returns.
Andy Hicks: The consensus preseason ranking of Montee Ball was one that had me scratching my head, almost as much as the Broncos decision to move on from Knowshon Moreno in a very limited championship window. The Broncos need a running game and Ball has struggled so far this year. At least Hillman gave them a 100 yard rusher in his first really serious effort as a starter. He wouldn't be the first running back to outperform coaches' expectations, but we are talking about a solitary game right now. Let's get through a second week, then a third, before we anoint him as the clear starter. As Adam states, Ball has outperformed him from the coaches' point of view to get the opportunity first. Hillman has posted his first riposte against the Jets. This situation will remain fluid until it isn't. In other words with a poor game against the 49ers, Hillman takes us back to square one. While on the other hand, a good to great game moves this discussion further forward with a clearer picture.
Branden Oliver, on the other hand, has two great games to draw on before we even have to think about Ryan Mathews coming back. Odds are that Oliver will once again be the primary ball carrier against the Chiefs this week, so Oliver is clearly the better option right now and at the very worst retains a Danny Woodhead role moving forward. The Chargers have clearly demonstrated that two backs can have serious value in their offense, even if Ryan Mathews returns to full health and returns to last year's form. Anything less than that and Oliver could easily rise to RB2 level, with an outside chance of RB1 value if breaks go his way.
Justin Bonnema: The Broncos running game was frustrating for Montee Ball owners before he got hurt. Once he returns this entire backfield may need to be avoided. A full committee approach tied to an offense that struggles to run-block but excels in the passing game means bad news for anyone but Manning and his receivers. I'm a little more confident in Branden Oliver retaining his value and usage for San Diego once Ryan Mathews returns. We saw what Danny Woodhead did last year. There's no reason Oliver can't play that role.
Matt Harmon: I think Hillman has a better than 50-50 chance of remaining the starter for the rest of the season. There is no set date for Montee Ball’s return, and Hillman was the man for John Fox and company even after a fumble last week. Not to mention, Ball has done nothing to inspire faith that he will be gifted the starting job once he returns. He’s been a pretty poor player.
Will Grant: I have concerns about Hillman. He seems to find himself in the doghouse a lot. In Denver, that means one week he'll get 20 touches, the next week he'll get two. Ball is really the guy they want to bring along and when he returns from injury, I expect Hillman's production to take a hit. Oliver will probably see a drop as well, but not nearly as much. Ryan Mathews is an injury waiting to happen and given how he can't stay healthy, it won't surprise me if the Chargers move on without him after the season is over. He's a free agent, and given Oliver's production so far, I don't see them giving Mathews a chance to finish strong and demand a big contract next year
Antone Smith
His production on limited touches has been kind of insane. Is he going to get a much bigger role in the offense soon?
Matt Waldman: Antone Smith is playing great football in his role. I wrote about Smith this week. Atlanta likes to mix up formations and personnel and it's tough for defenses to predict when Smith is getting the ball. I'd love to see him take over Jacquizz Rodgers' role, but I'm not counting on significant changes of usage patterns from the offense at this time.
Chad Parsons: His acceleration on the first three or four steps is pretty ridiculous. I am a regression guy, so skeptical every single week that this 'touchdown on such low volume' streak continues. What typically happens is by the time folks buy in enough to pick a guy like Smith up and actually start him, the production evaporates. Buyer beware even though I love the story and impact thus far.
Andy Hicks: Every year there are freak results that need to be discarded very quickly, whether they are for four weeks, eight weeks, or even for an entire season. Once they get into a second season we can be less skeptical. I mean seriously, Smith is 29 years old, with six career carries heading into this year. The offense has been very successful at using him to catch opposing defenses napping. If you are struggling at running back or have deep rosters, he is a definite what-the-heck kind of option, but you can realistically expect more games like his effort against the Bengals than the other five.
Adam Harstad: In 2005, Tatum Bell went berserk for a four-week stretch. During that span, he scored touchdowns of 34, 55, and 67 yards, and added non-scoring gains of 37 and 68 yards. At the time, many were beginning to question whether that sort of production was, in fact, sustainable. With the benefit of hindsight, it's a lot easier to see it for what it was—a really fast home-run threat in the middle of a hot streak. People underestimate how streaky truly random events really are. Sometimes coin flips come up heads eight times in a row.
Even among great players, long touchdowns are streaky. DeSean Jackson scored 18 touchdowns of 50+ yards for Philadelphia. Eight of them came during a single season, and he averaged two a year during the rest of his tenure. Chris Johnson had 10 touchdowns of 50+ yards for Tennessee. Seven of them came during a single season. Sometimes players go on this ridiculous stretches. Smith is a 29-year-old 5th-year veteran. Prior to last year, he'd never scored a professional touchdown. Obviously the ability to score long touchdowns is not a sustainable skill that he can rely on going forward.
With that said, this really is a remarkable streak, and I'm sure we'll remember it for years to come once it's finally over.
Justin Bonnema: Please feed him.
Matt Harmon: Even if his workload never increases, Smith is a massive upside flex play. I’m comfortable starting him if the rest of my team is strong, as he can be the piece that puts me over the top. You have to be ready to except a two-point game if the big run or catch never comes. Yet those big plays keep coming.
Will Grant: Harmon's right. He's a flex play with upside potential. Not sure I'm as confident starting him though. He's only getting single digit touches a game, and while he's making big plays with them, it just isn't enough to make you comfortable starting him unless you are hurting because of injury or bye week.
Wide receivers on the rise
Andre Holmes, Brandon LaFell, and Mohamed Sanu have all come on strong lately. Which of the three do you like best going forward?
Matt Waldman: I like Sanu the most in redraft leagues this year. He's the best talent of the three as a player in the air and after the catch. If we learn Marvin Jones' ankle injuries have true long-term consequences to his career longevity or durability then I also like Sanu best in dynasty. Even if Sanu gets benched or limited if or when Jones and Green return, I won't be investing heavily in Holmes or LaFell. I like Holmes more than LaFell, so I'd take a chance on the Raiders' receiver, but neither is a fully dimensional receiver who runs the full route tree, nor are they as versatile as Sanu. I'd rather draft a rookie or trade for someone else.
Chad Parsons: I think Holmes is the best pure talent to stick. In redraft, at least with A.J. Green out, I like Sanu the best.
Andy Hicks: Andre Holmes is looking like the kind of guy that will be the Raiders' WR1 with Rod Streater injured, James Jones purely a complementary receiver, and Denarius Moore soon to be forgotten. Of course, he has to do this on a regular basis and not drop simple chances like he did against the Chargers. Derek Carr has seen good results when he chucks it to Holmes for now, so I give him a conditional thumbs-up.
Mohamed Sanu has struggled in the shadow of A.J. Green, but is finally getting a chance to showcase his developing skills. With Marvin Jones gone for the year and Green out for at least another week, Sanu has to be the go-to guy for Andy Dalton. The problem will be when Green gets back and how Sanu adapts to a secondary role. Right now ride the wave, which could last awhile given how horrible toe injuries can be, but be prepared for a WR3 at best situation should Green return to is best.
Brandon LaFell is interesting, but will ultimately be hit-and-miss on a week-to-week basis. Maybe Brady can trust him as the Patriots are struggling to get consistent production from a bunch of other guys, but LaFell in his days at Carolina was a guy that did the same. LaFell is worth an investment, but I wouldn't expect his upside to be as high as Sanu or Holmes. The downside, well we've seen it before from him.
Justin Bonnema: I don't trust any of these guys, but if I had to pick one I'd go with Andre Holmes. He fits the big wide receiver, end-zone threat we all want on our teams. It's hard to say with confidence that he'll continue to put up consistent numbers in an offense that suddenly appears to be rich at wide receiver, but he's a better option than LaFell and Sanu.
Matt Harmon: Andre Holmes in both redraft and dynasty leagues. He is by far the best physical talent amongst this trio. Holmes also has the strongest chance to emerge as his team’s number one option in the passing game. Derek Carr looks to be improving with each week. He’s a WR3 in redraft leagues, and could be on the up-and-up in dynasty leagues. Always bank on the superior upside play, and that's Holmes.
DeMarco Murray
You own DeMarco Murray. Is there any player you would trade him for right now?
Matt Waldman: I'd trade him for multiple players, but not a one single player. The offensive line is playing too well and even with the loss of Doug Free for a few weeks, I'm optimistic about Murray maintaining a strong RB1 level of production.
Chad Parsons: In redraft leagues, I would trade him for Giovani Bernard or LeVeon Bell if I could get a small upgrade elsewhere on top. In dynasty, there are plenty of wide receivers I would trade Murray for straight up in addition to Bell, Bernard, and maybe LeSean McCoy at the running back position. In 6-pt passing touchdown leagues, I would take Andrew Luck in dynasty as well as Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.
Adam Harstad: In standard scoring, no, there's no one I'd prefer over DeMarco Murray. In PPR leagues, though, I'd trade him straight-up for Matt Forte. Forte currently leads the league in receptions. Note: he does not lead all running backs in receptions, he leads the entire NFL in receptions. Matt Forte has more receptions than Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, or Antonio Bryant. He's a phenomenal bet to top 100 receptions on the season. That kind of value boost is massive in PPR scoring. Demarco Murray's had a historically great start to his season, but he's on pace for 424 carries. That pace is not going to hold up. His rushing numbers will come back to earth some, and when they do, Forte's receptions will become a substantial advantage.
Andy Hicks: It depends on what the rest of my lineup is like, and whether I have depth at running back. As Matt suggested, it would have to be for a package of players, but only if I was struggling at two positions and had depth at running back..
Let's say I owned Drew Brees, Andy Dalton, A.J Green, Victor Cruz, Keenan Allen and Jason Witten as well as Murray and two or three other performing backs. I would like to find an owner who had depth at quarterback, wide receiver or tight end and was struggling at running back, and go for a two- or three-for-one swap.
Justin Bonnema: There isn't a player I'd trade DeMarco Murray for. I could see trying to work a package deal but those are usually difficult to structure. As it stands, Murray will win people championships. Can't trade that away.
Matt Harmon: A player-for-player trade involving me sending away DeMarco Murray seems unlikely right now. There are fewer than 15 running backs I’d feel no hesitation starting in any given week. Murray was one of the few running back missiles that hit the target from August drafts. The only reason you’d want to deal him is if you’re just terrified of his injury history. That’s playing far too scared for my tastes. It would take a stunning multiple-player offer to pry the stud Cowboys’ runner off my roster. It’s one that probably would not come.
Struggling running backs
Who do you like better from here on out: Alfred Morris or C.J. Spiller?
Matt Waldman: I'll definitely take Alfred Morris. The Washington runner still looks good; he makes good plays better and bad plays livable. I can't say the same for Spiller, who continues to bounce runs outside when he needs to keep the ball between the tackle and avoid losses that screw up the schedule of his offense. As I said in the Gut Check this week, when Anthony Dixon begins earning carries at Spiller's expense you know it's time to temper expectations.
I'll be surprised if Spiller is back in Buffalo in 2015 and he'll need to learn whatever Reggie Bush did between New Orleans and Miami to become the player he's capable. Keep in mind that Bush actually knew how to run between the tackles with maturity at USC (despite the popular misperception that he was wild and undisciplined there because of all of his great highlights in the open field) and tried too hard to be a hero in New Orleans. The Clemson offense often enabled Spiller to remain an immature high-end athlete. While I have seen flashes of progress from Spiller as far back as two years ago, he still lapses into this "I'm a great athlete" behavior that doesn't work as well in the NFL.
Chad Parsons: Yuck. I guess I'd go with Spiller as I deplore backs that are heavily reliant on goal line carries and a positive game script like Alfred Morris—both of which are working against him this season.
Adam Harstad: I'd prefer Morris by a substantial margin. The 2012 season was amazing for C.J. Spiller, but he can't keep coasting off of that one year forever. Spiller has a small role in Buffalo's offense, and he isn't playing very well on the limited opportunities he's getting. Alfred Morris may not catch passes, but he's a heck of a runner whose role is secure.
Andy Hicks: Can't really add much more to what Adam said. Morris ran into the Seahawks and Cardinals in the last two weeks so can be forgiven for a couple of bad games. Before that he was averaging 18 carries a game at 4.45 yards a carry and had three touchdowns. Spiller has gone from 18 touches to 12 to six in the last three weeks, is averaging less than 3.5 yards a carry, and hasn't reached the end zone since Week 1.
Justin Bonnema: I'd go with Alfred Morris and it's not close. I still believe in Washington's ability to run the ball and their willingness to do so. Establishing a deep threat, as they've done over the last few weeks, should help reprogram this offense and I think Morris stands to benefit.
Matt Harmon: It has to be Morris. The Washington running back has well-known flaws at this point. He does not contribute an ounce of production in the passing game, and can be eliminated by the game script with ease. He’s not a player you want to rely on as a top running back on your fantasy squad. Too often, if he does not score a touchdown, his ceiling is nine points.
But is C.J. Spiller a player we can rely on at all? I’d argue no. He should be a big-play maven, and a strong asset in the passing game out in space. Unfortunately, that is in theory only. In reality, Spiller is a square peg that isn’t playing well being smashed into a round hole by his coaching staff. They seem insistent on asking Spiller to run in between the tackles. That aspect of his game has, and always will be, a weakness, so you wonder why the coaching staff continues to ask that of him. If Spiller found his way to a new team by the trade deadline, we could revisit this. As it stands today, Spiller is someone you just cannot count on in any fashion.
Jordan Reed
Where do you rank Jordan Reed among fantasy tight ends for the rest of this season?
Matt Waldman: I'll put Reed in my top five now that he's healthy. He's the closest thing to Aaron Hernandez on the field as we're going to see: strong, fast, agile, quick, and capable of wide receiver-like plays in tight coverage. I know that Arizona has a fantasy-friendly track record against tight ends this year, but I'm not believing Sunday is a one-time deal.
Chad Parsons: In the top-five mix for sure. Plenty of comeback efforts for the rest of the season for Washington.
Adam Harstad: I've consistently been among the highest staff members on Jordan Reed in both redraft and dynasty since before he ever played a single snap, so it's probably no surprise that I'd have him in my top five going forward. He's clearly behind the Graham, Gronkowski, and Thomas tier, but I think Reed and Cameron are the best of the rest. Any questions of whether Jay Gruden's offense would feature the tight end should have been handily answered by now, as only three offenses have thrown for more yards to the tight end position than Washington's, (and two of those three offenses feature Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski).
Andy Hicks: Purely on his tendency to miss games, I'd rank him as a bottom-end TE1. Washington has got significant production out of Niles Paul in his absence and although that augers well for the much better-skilled Reed, I have a feeling there will be a few more missed games before the season is out.
Justin Bonnema: It's hard to rank Jordan Reed at the moment. I do love him against a leaky Titans' defense that has allowed four touchdowns over the last three weeks to tight ends. If he can take advantage of that situation I'll be comfortable throwing him into top-eight territory. Seems like things are coming together for Washington's offense with players getting healthy. Morris and Reed are guys I might try to trade for while they're still cheap.
Matt Harmon: I’ve never been crazy about Reed, and even thought Niles Paul might replace him when his moment was strong at points this season. That may not happen, but Reed has enough questions to make me cautious. You have to like that both Robert Griffin and Kirk Cousins tend to lean on him, because he gets open quickly. And he can rack up points for fantasy in shootout situations. Yet he isn’t so physically gifted to make me fall in love with him, has major health issues, and won’t consistently be his team’s top target. Tight end is so fluid week to week that Reed is a TE1, but not a slam-dunk top-five guy as others may think.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.