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This week we discuss the following:
- Young running backs: short term and long term
- Rams offense
- LeSean McCoy
- Sell-high candidates
- Jordan Cameron
- Rookie wide receivers
Young running backs: short term and long term
With injuries to Rashad Jennings, Monte Ball, and Donald Brown (as well as Ryan Mathews), some young running backs had some good showings on Sunday.
Andre Williams, Ronnie Hillman, and Branden Oliver look like they'll be starting for the next two weeks or so. What's each guy's fantasy value over the next couple weeks, and his long-term potential in dynasty leagues?
Phil Alexander: If I had to rank them in terms of waiver priority, I’d go Oliver, Williams, Hillman. It’s not just that Oliver had the best game of the three last weekend (19-114-1 rushing, 4-68-1 receiving), or that he did it against a defense who hadn’t let up more than 46 rushing yards to a fantasy running back this season, but he also has the best opportunity to carve out a significant role when the injured starter ahead of him returns. There’s no doubt Ryan Mathews will reclaim his starting job when he comes back in another week or two, but Danny Woodhead’s season ending injury opens up a passing down role for Oliver that resulted in 76 receptions for Woodhead a year ago. Plus, Ryan Mathews presumably still has 12 metal screws attaching his shoulders to his body—who says he can make it through the rest of the season unscathed? The Chargers have the Raiders and Chiefs coming up in the next two games, so the matchups are also in Oliver's favor.
Early indications are that Rashad Jennings’ knee sprain should only cost him about two weeks, and while I do expect Andre Williams to flirt with RB1 stats in the upcoming games against the Eagles and Cowboys, I don’t know how viable he'll remain when Jennings returns. Coming into last week, Jennings had handled 40.7% of the Giants’ offensive touches, one of the heaviest usage rates in the league. Maybe if Williams shows well as a starter, the Giants will lighten Jennings’ load a bit when he comes back, but otherwise Jennings has done nothing to lose the majority of the carries. When Jennings is healthy, Williams is little more than a high upside handcuff.
As of now it’s unclear how much time Montee Ball will miss, but early reports are that he’ll avoid surgery, and his absence could be as little as two weeks. If that’s anything close to an accurate prognosis, it could be a blessing in disguise for Ball owners. Denver gets the Jets and 49ers in the next two games, and both defenses rank inside the top six at limiting opposing running back fantasy scoring. Given the matchups, I don’t expect much from Hillman short term, even if he does continue to dominate snaps in Ball’s absence (no guarantees there). Unless Hillman looks like a world beater in the next few games, I expect the Broncos to hand the starting gig back to Ball as soon as he’s healthy. In fact, send out some buy low trade offers to the Ball owner in your league. Starting in Week 8, the Broncos get the exploitable run defenses of the Patriots, Raiders, Rams, Dolphins, and Chiefs in their next five games.
Stephen Holloway: Brandon Oliver is easily first of the three. The Jets have had a dismal season, but even including last week when Oliver ran all over them, they are giving up only 3.3 yards per rush, which is fifth lowest in the NFL. The other Charger running backs are averaging between Mathew's 3.1 ypc and Draughn's 1.9 ypc. Oliver is averaging 4.8. In addition, he has caught all eight of his targets and averages 12.6 yards per catch. For sure until Mathews returns, Oliver will get the lion's share of the running back touches. Even when Mathews returns, he could remain as part of an RBBC.
Andre Williams is next for me, primarily because of the opportunity over the next two games. He has not been as productive as Jennings to date, averaging only 3.1 yards per carry and is limited in the passing game with only four catches on eight targets for 25 yards. Jennings could miss only two games, which further limits Williams' value. On the other hand, the Giants will be playing the Eagles giving up 4.2 ypc and the Cowboys which allow 5.2.
Even though Montee Ball could miss the most time of the starters being compared here, the running back that will take advantage of that is not clear. Ronnie Hillman played well this week, but has not had consistent success over his three seasons with the Broncos as witnessed by his only playing in 25 of the 48 games and totaling 156 carries. The 15 rushes last week was his career high. C.J. Anderson, even though he has had far fewer opportunities in his two seasons, he has a career average of 5.2 ypc, but only one catch. He likewise has played in only seven games over two seasons. Juwan Thompson, the undrafted rookie out of Duke was active last week while Anderson was a healthy scratch. During Ball's absence, Anderson would be my favorite to be the lead back, but at a minimum Hillman will be involved and he could be the lead back. The more likely scenario is that Denver emphasizes the passing game with their team's strengths and Manning and the receivers benefit from the absence of Ball.
Jeff Haseley: All three are capable of being decent replacements, but all three have some wall in front of them keeping them from assuming the role when the incumbent running back returns from injury.
I like Andre Williams the most of this group in the short term. He should receive the bulk of the Giants carries in Rashad Jennings' absence. There is not much competition and Williams has shown he can be a success when given the chance. Long term, Williams has potential, but I don't see him catapulting ahead of Jennings anytime soon. He won't reach full time pay dirt until a major injury opens up an opportunity for him or he finds greener pastures via free agency.
Branden Oliver has the ability to be a key part of the offense even when Ryan Mathews returns, but I don't see a lot of volume for him. At best he's Michael Turner to LaDainian Tomlinson. At worst he's poor man's Danny Woodhead with opportunities as a change of pace back. The next few games could be very productive for Oliver, so we'll see where it takes him and what type of role he'll have in the offense when Mathews returns. The opportunity is there for the taking in the short term. His involvement should yield positive production going forward.
Ronnie Hillman to me has an opportunity to make some waves in the short term, but his value long term is probably the lowest of the three in question. He is more suited as a change of pace back, however a similar back in Justin Forsett is thriving in Baltimore with a similar skill set. Hillman also has competition in C.J. Anderson and Juwan Thompson, both of whom are built for greater carry volume and sustained stamina not only throughout the game, but also as the season wears down. And let's not forget Montee Ball. Who's to say Ball doesn't seize the opportunity back when he returns from his groin injury? There a too many question marks in Denver right now. Will Hillman see more carries or will Anderson be more effective and assume the role? The opportunity is definitely there. The primary rushing role on a high scoring offense is loaded with fantasy potential. This will be a heavily observed situation in the next few weeks. Choosing the right (or wrong) beneficiary of this opportunity can make or break your fantasy season.
Ari Ingel: Oliver has the most value even when Mathews returns. I think he could certainly seize the Danny Woodhead role. So he has a chance to be a great play all season, especially in PPR.
Williams will be great until Jennings returns, and that is only for two or three weeks. So his value will be limited after that. Maybe they begin to trust him more around the end zone, but they really trust Jennings.
I'm not sold on Hillman being the lead guy. To me, C.J. Anderson is the sleeper here. I wouldn't read anything into last week's de-activation. Remember in 2012 when Lance Ball and Hillman were active when McGhee went down? Moreno was activated and was the lead guy. That's how I see it going again. Hillman is their change of pace back.
Scott Bischoff: I like our overall view of Oliver in the short-term because he's the number one, and the long-term because of his ability on third downs.
As far as Williams goes, one thing that was obvious in the six games I watched of him in college was his inability to move laterally. Once he gears down to stop moving forward, he has a very hard time getting going again because he isn't an explosive athlete. If he tries to bounce something outside and meets resistance, he stops his feet and slows down and is easily tackled. I like his as a downhill runner, but any movement other than North and South is his undoing. Teams will see this and make him move laterally which will dramatically limit his effectiveness.
John Lee: I agree with the others who have stated that Oliver is the guy to have over the next few weeks. First, he accumulated some impressive statistics against a stout NY Jets' front seven last week—the first running back to break 100 yards rushing against them this season (he was the first back to break 50 yards, too). Next, the Chargers have shown that they are not afraid to give a running back 20+ carries per game, if the ball is being moved efficiently, so there is little reason to fear that Oliver will get limited carries in a backfield with otherwise limited options. Lastly, his next two games are plus-matchups against the Raiders (30th against the run) and the Chiefs (22nd against the run).
In dynasty leagues, Andre Williams is the clear-cut back to have. Despite some of the negative things being said about him here, he has always found a way to be productive (nearly 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns at Boston College). Sure, NFL teams will try to play to his weaknesses, but let's not ignore how he runs: HARD. Watch some film on Andre Williams and it's easy to see how he has a future in the NFL...he runs downhill with power. Tom Coughlin will eventually scheme to get Williams the ball in situations where he can exploit his power running style and results should follow.
Of the other two (Oliver & Hillman), I am down on Hillman because he has not shown much over the past two years in a Peyton Manning offense, so there is not much reason to think his output will change hereafter; Oliver, the other option, is intriguing, but he would seem to be too small to be a long-term, every-down back in the NFL at 5'7" and 200 pounds.
Rams offense
Austin Davis put up some big numbers last week. Was that a fluke, or does he have legitimate fantasy value as a high-upside QB2 in twelve-team leagues?
Stephen Holloway: Austin Davis has always been an over-achiever so it shouldn't be that big of a surprise that he is experiencing success. He was a walk-on at Southern Miss and after red-shirting his first year, was named as the starting quarterback as a freshman, the first freshman to start in almost twenty years. He finished his career breaking many of Brett Favre's school career records including most passing yards. He led the team to bowl games in all four of his seasons and they have not been back since he left. He was undrafted in 2012 and spent time on and off practice squads at St. Louis and Miami. He was re-signed by St. Louis in October 2013. All he has done as a starter is complete 68% of his passes for 7.90 ypa. The Rams were supposed to be a top defense, but thus far in 2014 they are giving up 29.8 point per game which ranks 30th in the NFL. The Rams finally have decent receiving options and Davis has passed for an average of 351 yards the past two games with six touchdowns against only two interceptions. Expect Davis' production to cool somewhat, but he could finish the season on the fringes of the top twelve quarterbacks.
Jason Wood: Steve really nailed Davis' situation. I will say, having been at the Eagles game to watch Davis in person, this was as much about the porous nature of the Eagles defense and the fact they were playing with a huge lead as it did any particular skill of Davis'. While the Eagles are 4-1, their defense has been generous at times. That said, Davis appears to have job certainty and a fair share of weapons. What I'm really struggling with is the state of the Rams defense. What was a consensus top five fantasy unit in the preseason has disappointed; which has in turn allowed for the aforementioned 40 pass attempts per game. If you think the Rams defense settles down, I would argue that takes the top of Davis as a fantasy viable starter in 12-team leagues.
Jeff Haseley: One of the biggest stats that I look at when determining a quarterback's value, especially his ability to be an effective fantasy quarterback, is his yards per attempt. A yards-per-attempt of 8.0 or higher is a good indication that a quarterback has the ability to put up strong fantasy numbers. Austin Davis is hovering at 7.9 yards per attempt right now. Only a handful of others have a higher mark—such as Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Andy Dalton. Davis has shown the ability to get back into games with his arm, which is definitely a notable characteristic. I'm on the bandwagon that believes he'll be a reliable fantasy option down the stretch. He could finish in the Top 12, if not higher.
Ari Ingel: I agree with much of what has been said. Davis' biggest impediment to being a solid starter every week though ... his schedule. Next seven weeks: against San Francisco, against Seattle, at Kansas City, at San Francisco, at Arizona, against Denver, at San Diego. That's pretty brutal. If he can keep it going against San Francisco and Seattle, then I'm all in. But it is a tall order. Even if he throws no picks, is he really going to toss three or four touchdowns and throw for over 250 yards on those teams? I don't see it happening. But I hope it does.
Scott Bischoff: I thought Shaun Hill would be a decent number two type quarterback because of the situation he is in, and I think it is no different with Davis. The Rams have very big wide receivers in Kenny Britt and Brian Quick and a very big tight end in Jared Cook. One of the interesting things that Davis has going for him (that he showed last week) is his ability and willingness to put the ball up for grabs with these big players in the red zone. There are going to be struggles, and we haven’t really seen what pressure does to him, but as long as he can drive the ball down the field he should have some measure of fantasy success. I believe there will be big highs and lows with Davis and I agree with Jason’s assertion that the Eagles defense played a role here. He will go as his matchup goes. I’m not sure I consider him a high-upside QB2 because of the lack of consistency, but there’s value in the weeks where he goes off. Take a look at your current starter’s bye week and the Rams matchup that week, and if it looks good then go for it.
This appears to be a breakout season for Brian Quick. Among all wide receivers, he's currently averaging the eighth-most fantasy points per game (non-PPR). Where you do you expect him to rank among fantasy wide receivers at the end of the season?
Stephen Holloway: Brian Quick has been a surprise this season, but his production will likely not be sustained. The Rams have averaged almost 40 pass attempts per game and that number should decrease going forward. Although Quick leads the team with 31 targets, they have six other players that already have double-digit targets in only four games. The sheer volume of viable receivers should limit Quick's targets and production. He has not had double-digit targets in any game despite the Rams throwing almost 40 times a game.
Jason Wood: I'm less pessimistic about Quick than Steve is. Lots of targets isn't a bad thing, particularly when he's doing a lot with those targets. Do I think Quick will be a top 10 fantasy receiver this year? No. Yet he's still un-owned in a decent number of leagues and that's absurd. He should be in someone's starting lineup until he strings together multiple letdown games.
Jeff Haseley: Brian Quick and Jared Cook have developed into Austin Davis' top receiving targets. Looking at Quick, I expect the targets and receptions to continue. His ability in the red zone makes him more valuable, especially if Davis continues his pace as a quarterback prone to high yardage games. When it's all said and done this year, Quick could work his way into a top 25 ranking, which is definitely worthy of a flex start on a weekly basis.
Ari Ingel: Once again, schedule hurts. But I think he finishes top 25 in standard leagues, and that is worth a start in a majority of leagues. Keep rolling with him while he's hot. Davis will throw the ball, and he likes Quick.
Scott Bischoff: Quick is a very big wide receiver at 6’3”+ and 220 pounds and he is finally running routes with certainty which is allowing him to run them at a faster pace than in his first two seasons. Quick isn’t an explosive athlete and his success is dependent on his ability to run very sharp, crisp routes combined with the size of his body. However, he’s too big for corners to handle down the field and he is certainly an attractive red zone option. It seems we’re in lockstep with the concept that the passing game volume has to get reduced and that means less opportunity for him. He’s seen 31 targets in four games (7.75 targets per game) and it’s hard to see that number growing. I think we are seeing his maximum output right now, and I expect his production to slip making him a bottom-tier fantasy WR2 at year’s end.
Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt have the physical talent to make an impact. Is either realistically likely to become a decent what-the-heck flex option?
Stephen Holloway: These two could and likely will have some explosive games. Britt is averaging 17.1 yards per reception and Austin's speed gives him a chance to break long plays from time to time. However, due to the abundance of decent receiving options on the team, the likelihood of either Britt or Austin providing consistent production is minimal.
Jason Wood: I see them eating each other's lunch, and it's a Lean Cuisine at that.
Jeff Haseley: Kenny Britt, maybe, but he needs to be more consistent. Tavon Austin, no. I have separated myself from Austin, simply because he hasn't turned into a deep threat where the big boy yards are. He's still a low-intermediate ranged receiver, who isn't even getting a lot of those looks right now. Until Austin shows me he can be a weapon on offense, I'm not buying in.
Ari Ingel: I have a tough time starting either, especially Austin. If they fire their offensive coordinator in the off-season, both guys could have value, but that's next year. So in dynasty leagues, they are worth a $1 or $2 at the end of the season as nice holds.
Scott Bischoff: I don’t see Austin being a reliable, consistent option as the speed of the NFL has really hindered his ability to play as fast as he timed. If we see the Rams put together plays designed specifically to get Austin in space at full speed then I will be one of the first to jump because of his physical talent, but at the current time I don’t see Austin being much of a factor. As for Britt, his size has him in a nice situation in the red zone with Davis’ willingness to allow Britt to go get the ball. Like Davis, I see Britt being very dependent on the matchup he faces and against certain defenses he will be a nice flex option, while other matchups will have him on fantasy benches.
How big a threat is Benny Cunningham to Zac Stacy's fantasy value?
Stephen Holloway: Once Stacy took over as the starting running back last year in Week 5, he averaged 21 rushes per game and caught 26 passes. This season, he has yet to see 20 carries and only has one game with over 12. Cunningham has been almost equally effective already this season. Unless Stacy is injured, he will continue to garner more carries than Cunningham, but the carry split could remain 60/40, as it has been over the past two games, with the targets fairly equal. The overall story is that Stacy's upside is severely hampered by Cunningham's participation and neither will see sufficient work to be more than a flex play.
Jason Wood: Zac Stacy was a volume back last year. Without the volume there's not much to be excited about. Benny Cunningham isn't special either, but he runs with purpose and balance and, frankly, that's about as much as you can ask for compared to a pedestrian Stacy. I see St. Louis going with the hot hand and neither having consistent fantasy value as long as they're both healthy.
Jeff Haseley: I still believe Zac Stacy has the ability to put up decent numbers if called upon. He's the Rams best option at running back, which leads me to believe he'll be featured more going forward. I tend to think Benny Cunningham is mainly insurance for Stacy. I don't see a big role opening up for him and that includes a committee approach. I think we'll see more Stacy in the next few weeks and as long as he can be effective, it should stay that way.
Ari Ingel: I'm staying away from this backfield. To me, it just doesn't offer that much upside and is a tough call week-to-week.
Scott Bischoff: Stephen has this situation mapped out really well. I agree with everything he said.
Jared Cook is fourth among tight ends with 7.8 targets per team game. What are his odds of becoming a decent option as a starting fantasy tight end this season?
Stephen Holloway: Cook has always been a fantasy tease. He began last season with a first game stat line of seven catches for 141 yards and two touchdowns. For the rest of the season, he managed 44 catches 531 yards and three touchdowns. Thus far in 2014, Cook is second on the team in receptions but has not scored a TD. The odds of him being a decent fantasy starter are slim and none, except in best ball where you don't have to pick which game he finally exceeds expectations.
Jason Wood: Cook has never lacked eye-popping athleticism. He's fast. He's strong. And in practice he has great hands. But he's never been a gamer, and we're seeing it now. He's not converting enough of those targets into productivity, and since I think the Rams pass attempts/game are due for a downtick, I'm betting that Cook's production flatlines or, quite possibly, falls a bit.
Jeff Haseley: I like those odds, especially because Austin David has latched onto him as a viable target. That should continue and as long as Davis is slinging 280+ yards per game, Cook should benefit.
Ari Ingel: At best he is a bye week or injury replacement. We have been here before, and it just doesn't pan out. Once again, tough schedule, so even more tough to trust.
Scott Bischoff: Cook will go with the offense as a whole, but it appears that he is a bit of a security blanket for Davis, and that will insulate him from some of the bad games that are coming. As long as he stays healthy I see him as a No. one tight end capable of providing enough to warrant consideration as a very low end starter.
LeSean McCoy
We've discussed LeSean McCoy's slow start a few times this season, and the consensus has been that he'd break out of the doldrums and return to fantasy RB1 status. But with five uninspiring games in five weeks, is it time to worry yet?
Phil Alexander: Sure it’s time to worry, but hope isn't lost for the rest of the season. As far as I can see, McCoy’s problem is that the Eagles offensive line is in tatters—a situation that should improve as time passes. They got starting RT Lane Johnson back last week, and McCoy responded with 81 rushing yards—his highest total of the season (albeit on 24 carries). I would expect McCoy to have a similarly decent game against the Giants this week (they’ve let up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs), before the Eagles head into their bye. When they come off the bye in Week 8, they face a tough matchup against Arizona, followed by a winnable one at Houston. Starting RG Evan Mathis (who was graded by Pro Football Focus as the NFL’s best run blocking guard in 2013) should be back for the Week 10 game against Carolina, at which point I would expect something closer to the LeSean McCoy you thought you drafted. If you’re sitting at 4-1, or 5-0 and could afford to wait things out, I would be looking to buy McCoy on the cheap. He remains a difference making talent, on an offense committed to running the football.
Stephen Holloway: The fact that Darren Sproles at age 31 is averaging 6.9 ypc and McCoy only 2.9 is mind boggling. Sproles has remained effective in the passing game with more targets, more catches and far more yards than McCoy, but that was somewhat expected. McCoy has a career average of 4.8 ypc and last year averaged 5.1 on a career high 314 carries. His production will undoubtedly improve from his dismal numbers thus far, but his cost is likely higher than I would be willing to pay for the remainder of the season.
Jason Wood: I'm not only a Footballguy, I'm an Eagles season ticket holder. I thought this week against St. Louis would be McCoy's "get right" game. He practiced all week, the Rams defense has struggled, and Lane Johnson returned to the lineup. Yet, what I saw really depressed me. McCoy is hurt and/or he no longer trusts his line. He bounced to the outside and stutter stepped on every run, which is something he did in college at Pitt, but broke free of once he became a pro. I can only assume he's regressed because something isn't right. five games is one-third of the season, and unfortunately I'm (a) worried he's set to fall well short of expectations and (b) he's been bad enough for long enough this year that his trade value has plummeted.
Jeff Haseley: I think he's definitely someone to be concerned about for now, until he rights the ship and has a big game—I think that's all it will take to get him going again. He does have two games of 100+ total yards, but he's not getting many long runs at all, which has always been a common occurrence for him, especially last year in Chip Kelly's offense. He'll come around.
Ari Ingel: I'm worried. Preseason I projected him as the safest back in the league, but that is over now, time to re-adjust. I own him in the Football Guys league and he is just not getting it done. The o-line is not performing well and he is dancing too much to try and find space. That said, unless you have legitimate other options, you just need to roll with him and hope for the best. At least I don't see any fall off in his talent level, but with bad quarterback play, a bad o-line and no real receding threat to scare defenses, it's a tough slog for McCoy.
Scott Bischoff: McCoy is injured (or he seems to be) and it seems like his ability to process information has been hampered. He looks to be bouncing everything outside and I wonder if the few big hits he took to the head early this year haven’t fully cleared. Phil brought up great points about the offensive line and overall, I think this situation requires patience.
John Lee: It is time to worry with LeSean. Last year, his offensive line ranked out as one of the best of all-time in the NFL; just 12 months later, the Eagles' offensive line is grading out at 30th after five games. The majority of the offensive line woes are due to injuries/suspensions, rather than a lack of talent, but the reason is irrelevant to fantasy owners.
With the extreme differential in blocking from last year to this year, it is easy to one reason why McCoy has struggled, but he is also showing signs of slowing down, himself. McCoy, who has traditionally made his reputation off his shifty running style, is far from shifty in 2014. Currently, McCoy ranks 43rd in the league in yards after contact with 1.9 per rush; this is almost half of what guys like Chris Ivory and DeMarco Murray are currently averaging. If LeSean is getting poor blocking and cannot find a way to get past that initial defender, it is difficult to envision his fantasy performance rising dramatically from this point forward.
Sell-high candidates
Name a player who's put up enticing fantasy stats over the past few weeks, but is very unlikely to keep it up.
Phil Alexander: Ahmad Bradshaw is fun to watch, and I understand the fantastic return he’s given you on your minimal investment to this point (he’s the RB6 in standard scoring), but I’d get out while the getting’s good. Take a look at Bradshaw’s recent injury history. There’s not much there to inspire confidence he’ll make it through the season with his feet still attached, especially considering he was spotted in a walking boot as recently as 10/1. If there’s a chance you can sell Bradshaw to a fantasy running back needy owner for anything that resembles a Top-24 wide receiver (think Mike Wallace), I’d strongly consider it.
John Lee: I am selling high on Ahmad Bradshaw, too. The Colts seem determined to play Trent Richardson more snaps than he deserves, to justify that price they paid to Cleveland for him last Fall; despite Bradshaw's performance through five games, the Colts have maxed out Bradshaw's snap count to ~ 50% of the offensive snaps. To date, Bradshaw has been on the field for 194 snaps and he has been given the ball (via rushing or targeting via pass) 70 times, which is a 36.1% usage rate; furthermore, he has scored four touchdowns on 21 targets in the passing game. His usage rate and his abnormally high touchdown per touch rate are both unsustainable in an offense that also includes two marquis receivers who have not yet reached their stride this year (Wayne & Hilton have ~750 yards receiving, but only a single touchdown).
Stephen Holloway: Martellus Bennett is an excellent sell-high candidate. He is leading all tight ends with 32 receptions on the season. He is tied with Matt Forte for the most targets among Bear players. As soon as Marshall and Jeffery get healthy, his opportunities will recede. Despite his high number of catches, his yards per catch is only 9.8, lower than his 11.5 over the past two seasons. He has already scored four touchdowns and his career high is 5.
Jason Wood: Larry Donnell. He's a pedestrian player in the right place, right time. But with Beckham back in the mix, I think you need to trade him NOW before folks stop looking at him as a TE1.
Jeff Haseley: Eddie Royal. We've seen this song and dance before where he has a few good games and then returns back to earth, usually after an injury sidelines him. He doesn't absorb hits well and it often results in a minor injury that is enough to keep him out of the limelight for a few weeks, where he returns to a non-productive wide receiver on your bench. I'm not getting drawn into the hype.
Ari Ingel: Terrance Williams. He is scoring touchdowns every game, can't argue with that. But when you only get three targets a game, he is also hard to trust. No TD and his stats are bad. Touchdowns are always a bit fluky, so this feels like Eddie Royal 2013 to me. Sell him high.
Scott Bischoff: Larry Donnell is a very good football player and he is in a nice situation but he isn’t talented enough to be a top-12 tight end at year’s end. The Giants got first-round pick Odell Beckham Jr back this past week and it didn’t take long to see what kind of route runner he is, and what kind of damage he is capable of for the Giants offense. I think Beckham’s return and strong play push Donnell down the list of priorities for Eli and the passing game.
Jordan Cameron
Is Jordan Cameron still a fantasy starter in twelve-team leagues?
Jason Wood: No. He's not.
Stephen Holloway: Jordan Cameron had seven targets in last week's game and almost doubled his targets on the season. He will continue to be involved more in the game plan going forward and despite his slow start could be a fantasy starter for the remainder of the season. Even though he only has six catches thus far, he is averaging 17.2 yards per reception. His targets, receptions, and touchdowns will all climb over the remainder of the season and he could lead the team in receiving yardage and touchdowns.
Jeff Haseley: He hasn't had more than three catches yet this year, which is a concern. Other receivers have picked up the slack in his absence. Andrew Hawkins, Travis Benjamin, Miles Austin all have outplayed Cameron so far. The running game is also front and center, which is limiting the number of passes to go around. His shoulder injury has affected his ability to be all he can be on the field and now Brian Hoyer is comfortable with his other receivers. I don't think Cameron's poor play will continue. I'd be shocked if he didn't start to produce here soon enough. Until he does though, no he is not a fantasy starter.
Ari Ingel: I think he is. The tight end position really doesn't have many consistent options outside of the top three or four guys. So if you have Cameron, you keep him going.
Scott Bischoff: He isn’t a fantasy starter right now, but he will be when wide receiver Josh Gordon returns to the Browns offense. Cameron needs space to operate and he doesn’t have that right now, but it is coming. To me, he is a hold because you’re not getting anywhere near full value in a trade and he isn’t playable right now, but in a few weeks he will be back to producing very good TE1 numbers.
Rookie wide receivers
Now that Odell Beckham Jr has gotten on the field and Sammy Watkins has Kyle Orton at quarterback, how do they stack up against Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks (and dark horse Allen Hurns?) for Rookie of the Year honors at WR?
Stephen Holloway: The rookie wide receiver class was highly regarded during the off-season and they have not disappointed. Before the season, my favorites were Beckham and Cooks. Benjamin is the current fantasy leader as he has 24 catches on 47 targets for 367 yards and three touchdowns. Cooks has the most receptions, but many of his routes have been short and he is averaging only 8.0 yards per reception on his 32 catches. Watkins will get a boost with expected improved quarterback play with Orton playing in Buffalo. Beckham finally got on the field in Week 5 and caught four passes on five targets for 44 yards and a score.
Watkins should finish on top as long as Buffalo stays with Orton, but Benjamin, Cooks and Beckham will all be viable starters for the rest of their rookie seasons.
Jason Wood: Too early to give ROY predictions but I took Beckham with high picks in several dynasty leagues and genuinely believe he could be the best wide receiver of this rookie class, over his career. It was encouraging to see him play such a prominent role in his first week back practicing, and I would comfortably target him in trades over everyone in the class other than Sammy Watkins.
Jeff Haseley: As good as Odell Beckham looks, he has some ground to make up behind the trio of Sammy, Kelvin and Brandin. I think it's safe to say that Sammy Watkins is going to be the most targeted rookie of the bunch. Buffalo is doing everything they can to get him the ball and so far it's working. If I had to pick the Rookie of the Year after Week 5, I'd say Watkins is the early clubhouse leader with Benjamin close behind.
Ari Ingel: Cooks is my favorite still. He gets the targets and Brees trusts him. I'm also hopeful that this offense will eventually click. That said, I could see Watkins giving him a run for his money as Orton peppers him with targets. I would then rank Benjamin and Beckham right behind them. But if you are in a dynasty league, you have to get a piece or two from this year's rookie wide receiver class. All four of these guys will be studs next year and Donte Moncrief, Cody Latimer, Davante Adams, Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson and Paul Richardson Jr should all make significant impacts as well.
Scott Bischoff: In my opinion, Odell Beckham Jr came into the NFL as the draft’s best route runner and he went to an offense that would take advantage of his skill and savvy setting up defenders with head and shoulder fakes and start/stop moves along with his skill in running routes at different stride lengths. It’s the stuff of veterans, and it’s very good news for the Giants going forward. It was obvious after Sunday’s Bills game that Orton was going to help Watkins in a big way, and he will continue to look for him everywhere. I believe that Beckham Jr.’s injury has hurt him, but there are 11 more games in the season and Beckham Jr. and Watkins have to be considered the front runners to win Rookie of the Year.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.