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This week we discuss the following:
Week 16 sleepers
Name a player that you think is likely to have a particularly good disappointing performance in Week 16.
Phil Alexander: I like Mike Evans as a top five wide receiver this week. We know the deal with Evans recently—he's been good for catching touchdowns and very little else. His dominant 57.89% TD market share makes it very likely he'll be on the receiving end of another score this week, but Evans could also rack up some big yardage numbers for the first time in over a month. The Green Bay secondary is suspect. We saw Julio Jones annihilate them two weeks ago on Monday Night Football, which was not an isolated incident. Over the last five weeks, the Packers are allowing over 25% more fantasy PPG to opposing wide receivers than the league average. Tampa is a 10 point underdog with a terrible defense, facing off with the league's best offense. They'll have to throw the ball all afternoon to keep up, which means Evans should see double-digit targets. A 100+ yard, two TD day is within the range of possible outcomes.
Matt Harmon: Fred Jackson is going to blow up against Oakland. That should hardly be a long shot, given how poor Oakland is at slowing down opposing rushing attacks. However, Jackson could be overlooked, simply because this game figures to be rather uninspiring. The veteran running back’s usage has been going up ever since he fully returned from an injury absence. He’s the only consistent asset on the Bills offense right now, and is getting plenty of run on the ground and through the air. Jackson isn’t priced like a top-10 option on and daily sites, but should score as such against the Raiders.
Andy Hicks: I'll go with Mark Sanchez against the Washington defense. Sanchez has been particularly disappointing in the last few weeks against much better defenses than Washington. Against the Seahawks, he completed fewer than 100 yards passing and then against Dallas threw for two interceptions and no touchdowns. To get the Eagles back into playoff contention they need to beat a Washington team that is defining the word dysfunction.
Against the Giants, Washington allowed three touchdowns and 250 yards to Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr and against the Rams, they gave up 213 yards and two touchdowns to Shaun Hill in a comfortable win for the Rams. Before that, a much better quarterback in Andrew Luck threw for 370 yards and five scores.
Mark Sanchez should be good for 300 yards and three scores and put himself back on the map for free agency riches. A failure here and he then becomes a much weaker proposition. He is in the best possible situation to succeed in championship week and will help a lot of sides win their leagues.
Steve Buzzard: I am going to pick Donte Moncrief under the assumption that T.Y. Hilton won't play, and a chance that both Hilton and Reggie Wayne won't play. Moncrief has gotten lost a little bit with the performance of so many great rookie wide receivers, but he has started to come on lately and is picking up more targets and snaps as the season goes. Moncrief disappointed with his zero catches last week, but if either of those receivers miss and with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, I wouldn't have a problem putting him into my championship lineup. At a minimum you should pick him up so your opponent can't use him against you.
Dynasty running backs
Who are your top five dynasty running backs right now?
Adam Harstad: By historical standards, it's kind of a bleak bunch, at least after LeVeon Bell, but here are my top five:
1. Without any question at all, the number one running back in dynasty right now is LeVeon Bell. He is a tier unto himself. Not only is he the most productive running back in the league, but he's also the most talented, and he'll be just 23 to start next season. The question isn't whether Bell should be number one; the question is how far ahead he is of every other running back in the NFL. And the answer is: really far.
2. After Bell, it's a matter of choosing between the best of a flawed pool of candidates. My number two dynasty running back right now is Eddie Lacy, who is young, productive, and in a great offense... but his volume is a concern, he's heavily reliant on touchdowns for production, and I don't think he's as talented as some of the other running backs on this list.
3. My number three running back is Jamaal Charles, who for my money is the best back in the NFL right now other than Bell, and who has a huge history of fantasy production. The problem? He's about to celebrate his 28th birthday, which means he might only have a season or two left of top production. Given the flawed field of candidates, two seasons of top production is enough for me to rank you number three, though.
4. Number four is DeMarco Murray, who has the best combination of age and production outside of Bell. He's a year younger than Charles, was a top-10 back last year, and is having a historically great season this year. The problem? He's a free agent after the season, and I don't think Dallas will bring him back. There's also concern that he might feel lingering effects of this year's massive workload.
5. Finally, LeSean McCoy checks in at number five. He is the same age as Murray and playing in a dream offense, but his production has taken a worrying tumble this year. I believe that as Darren Sproles ages McCoy will regain a lot of his receiving production, so I'm betting on a bit of a rebound in the next few years.
Phil Alexander: I am not a dynasty expert, but these are the running backs and wide receivers I'd be most excited to own if I were starting a new dynasty team today:
1. LeVeon Bell—He's the best running back in the NFL, and he's only 22 years old. I don't see much room for debate at the top.
2. Jeremy Hill—I'm guessing this ranking is outside the box, but I'm not sure everyone realizes how great Hill's debut has been. As Mike Braude from Apex Fantasy Leagues recently tweeted, Hill has averaged 21.8 carries, 123 rushing yards (5.64 YPC), and 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game in the five games he's seen at least 15 carries. He's perfectly suited for OC Hue Jackson's power run scheme, and like Bell, he's just 22 years old.
3. Eddie Lacy—I very badly wanted to finish this list with LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, and DeMarco Murray in some order, but as great as those backs are, I'm not sure any of them have more than two years left playing at an elite level. Lacy's wagon is hitched to the best quarterback in football, and he's still got significantly more tread left on his tires than any of the aforementioned trio.
4. LeSean McCoy—McCoy gets the slight edge over Charles and Murray because I believe he's still the most skilled runner in the league, and there will always be enough work to go around in Chip Kelly's run-heavy scheme.
5. Christine Michael—Truth be told, I wouldn't actually draft Michael ahead of Charles or Murray on my own team, but I felt obligated to include his name in this discussion. The bloom is off the rose a bit after the Seahawks showed zero willingness to deviate from Robert Turbin as their primary backup this season, but I remain a sucker for Michael's drool-worthy measureables. There's no shot Marshawn Lynch returns to Seattle next season. Hopefully, the Seahawks are just keeping Michael fresh for when they absolutely need him to carry the load.
Matt Harmon: Here's my current top five as we close out this season.
1. LeVeon Bell—This one is easy; Bell is the best running back in the league, and hasn’t even turned 23 yet. He’s in a profitable offense for fantasy production, and is a dynamic threat in both sectors of the game—run and pass. The best part about Bell, he’s just now reinventing his skillset. Many observers have commented on how he is a completely player now, than he was in college. This could be just the beginning of an amazing career for the Steelers running back.
2. Eddie Lacy – There are some people out there who think Eddie Lacy is not a great football player. I don’t get that. The second year runner has an all-around skillset, and is a load to bring down. Sure, his receiving prowess, and ability in space, may not compute with what you think a power back should do, but he just keeps on proving this is who he is. Believe him. His role in the Green Bay offense is the icing on the cake.
3. Jamaal Charles – As long as Andy Reid is around, Jamaal Charles will be the center piece of the Chiefs’ offense, even if he mysteriously goes away from him in games. Expect Charles’ production to begin to tail off, but there is no one who presents the guaranteed workload like him.
4. Jeremy Hill – This time last year, I would have probably had Giovani Bernard in this spot. Things have changed. The Bengals running back spot is still an excellent situation, but it no longer appears as if Bernard is the right fit. Jeremy Hill looks better suited as a bell-cow, behind a mammoth offensive line. He should be an excellent fantasy asset for many years.
5. Matt Forte – The final spot in the top-five came down to several older backs with questions marks. LeSean McCoy’s usage this season was too disturbing, and no one can know for sure where DeMarco Murray will be playing next season. Due to that, Matt Forte gets the nod. His next coach will almost certainly lean on him next season.
Andy Hicks: Some interesting choices by the other guys, but I wouldn't even consider a player like Christine Michael. He has 43 carries in two years and has been the third choice this year behind Lynch and Turbin.
Who knows what the future holds, but undelivered measureables into a third year are either a sign that he is struggling or, as Phil would probably like to think, they are keeping him on ice and running Lynch into the ground. The latter would be an interesting strategy for a team that won a super bowl last year and has a strong chance to repeat. Pete Carroll has always seemed like a best-player-plays kind of guy and not playing Michael ahead of Turbin seems to indicate the opposite of his strategy for other positions.
Overall, though, there is a dearth of top line talent at the Running Back positions which probably means that guys with high upside, like Christine Michael, enter into discussions.
Aging guys like Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett and Arian Foster are one- or two-year options at best, which is a fine dynasty strategy for some, especially at Running Back.
Younger backs like Michael, Doug Martin, Latavius Murray, Andre Ellington, Denard Robinson, C.J. Anderson and Lamar Miller are flawed, inexperienced or just not good enough
This year's rookies like Carlos Hyde, Bishop Sankey, Tre Mason, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell, Jerick McKinnon, Charles Sims and Andre Williams will either make a leap into LeVeon Bell territory or fade away quickly. Bell had a pedestrian 3.5 yards a carry in his rookie year, although there was a significant difference from the first half to the second half of the season.
The only rookie to merit serious consideration is Jeremy Hill.
Of the more experienced backs in the frame, but not good enough, we have C.J Spiller, Joique Bell, whichever back New England trots out on a week-to-week basis, ditto New Orleans, Rashad Jennings and Chris Ivory.
There way too many NFL teams with one, two or more substandard backs on their roster getting carries every week, so that essentially leaves us with Matt Forte, Giovani Bernard, Jeremy Hill, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, LeVeon Bell and Alfred Morris as candidates to be narrowed down into my top five.
Forte fits into veteran category and with chaos likely in Chicago next year I'm leaving him out.
Alfred Morris is probably in the same boat with Washington in a perpetual state of confusion. You never know who or what the next coach wants there. Morris has been a solid pro and even is catching a few passes this year. He probably falls just short of the standard required.
Two backs on the same team is not going to work out and Giovani Bernard is the one to miss out. I feared the worst when Jeremy Hill was drafted very high by the Bengals and thought that Hill would dominate the carries while Bernard is the better third down, receiving specialist. Bernard would be close and probably in were it not for Hill. He definitely has the talent to be a feature back.
LeSean McCoy is the last to miss out. He has dropped in rushing and receiving yardage, as well as receptions. Most importantly his touchdowns have more than halved. He is still young and good enough to rebound, but Sproles has taken enough of his workload to drop him down the list.
So that leaves my top five:
1. LeVeon Bell—A young workhorse who has improved in his second year may even have further improvement in year three and beyond. His skills as a receiver elevate higher than any back right now not named Matt Forte and at age 22 he is a staple of any fantasy roster lucky enough to have him. Carries, touchdowns, receptions and skill. The perfect all round back.
2. Jamaal Charles—This lightly raced soon-to-be-28-year-old is in a class above most of his compatriots. His career yards per carry of 5.53 yards a rush is ahead of ALL past players. Bo Jackson, Jim Brown, Gale Sayers, Barry Sanders, Adrian Peterson, et al. Excelling as a runner and receiver he has been the best runner in the NFL under Andy Reid, despite his coach using him far less than he perhaps should. Charles still has three good to great years left under Reid and in Dynasty that is a lifetime.
3. Jeremy Hill—It may be premature to stick him this high, after all Doug Martin looked like a hall of famer in his rookie year, but he has it all and is keeping a back 20 teams would kill for in Giovani Bernard in a secondary role. I want to see him start off strong in 2015 and not with a whimper like Martin did in 2013, but he has given no indication that he is not to be a consistent top fantasy back.
4. Eddie Lacy—Location, location, location. Lacy is in the perfect position to use his skills. A passing offense with the youngest elite quarterback in the NFL and the skills to make the most of his opportunities. I wouldn't be surprised if he never finishes as a top two fantasy back, but he should consistently rank in the top seven for the next five years.
5. DeMarco Murray—Others haven't included him and Adam basically has an asterisk against him. If he returns to Dallas then I put him higher, if not there are plenty of other teams that will sign him. He is unlikely to get a team that can run block as well as the Cowboys though. I don't share the pessimism that Adam has though and feel he will stay, even for a home price discount. Five is pretty much a holding position. If he stays I move him up to three and wait for his landing spot if he doesn't. This year's workload doesn't worry me. He doesn't have the carries a lot of backs his age would and is in his prime.
Steve Buzzard: Like Phil, I do not specialize in dynasty leagues, but I have put together some very solid teams over the years. The top of my list at running back looks like this:
1. LeVeon Bell—As others have mentioned he is the no brainer number one option right now and I don’t think it is close. Everyone summed him up well.
2. Jamaal Charles—Charles is the most talented running back in the NFL right now. He just falls behind Bell due to age, surrounding offensive talent, and a coaching staff that doesn’t properly use him.
3. Eddie Lacy—Lacy is the least talented of these five running backs but he has the best supporting cast which is extremely key for running backs. The Packers should continue to be good for a while too.
4. Demarco Murray—The only real problem I have with Murray is that he is a bit injury prone and the Cowboys beat him into a pulp with carries this year. Amazingly he has withstood the beating and continues to play well. As Adam said, I think the way the Cowboys have used Murray shows that he won’t be back next year and if he goes to less of an offense that doesn’t rely on him as much. This could make him fall quickly which is a bit of a risk the others don’t have.
5. Matt Forte—Forte is a little older than the rest of this group but he doesn’t take quite as much of a beating as the others on this list. Pass catching ability tends to fall off before running ability and since Forte hasn’t had a big decline yet I feel like he has a couple more years of excellent scoring potential in him.
Adam Harstad: Andy mentioned that I have an asterisk against DeMarco Murray. I just want to point out that, in fairness, I basically have an asterisk against everyone except LeVeon Bell. This is just such a terrible crop of dynasty running backs. Positively brutal. I've been saying that for a couple of years now, and just when I think it can't get any worse, everyone ages a year and no one new comes in. It looked like we were getting a talent infusion in 2012 with Richardson, Martin, and Wilson. Richardson stunk, Martin got hurt, and Wilson retired. Then it looked like we were getting a talent infusion in 2013 with Bell, Bernard, Ball, Lacy, Michael, and maybe a Zac Stacy. Bell and Lacy lived up to their end of the bargain, but Ball got Wally Pipped, Bernard got turned into a role player, Michael couldn't pass Robert Turbin, and Stacy just disappeared.
The Dynasty running back crop has been at "dire" for so long it's beginning to creep into "catastrophic". If the league doesn't get a talent infusion soon, we're a few years away from debating whether a 30-year-old Jamaal Charles is still a top five dynasty back.
Summary:
Player |
Adam |
Phil |
Matt |
Andy |
Steve |
LeVeon Bell |
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1 |
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2 |
4 |
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Dynasty wide receivers
Who are your top five dynasty wide receivers right now?
Phil Alexander: I'll lead things off.
1. Dez Bryant—Sometimes it's simple. The goal of fantasy football is to score the most points. Touchdowns get you the most points. Dez gets you the most touchdowns. No receiver has more touchdowns than Bryant's 38 since the start of the 2012 season, and he's just entering his prime.
2. Julio Jones—As with Bryant, we're about to see what Julio's prime years look like. If this season was any indication (93-1426-6), we're in for a treat. Let's cross our fingers his foot can stay attached for at least five more years.
3. Mike Evans—If you ask me this question at the same time next season, it wouldn't shock me if I rank Evans first on this list. What he's accomplished this season, despite being saddled with an awful quarterback situation is remarkable. Evans is one of only eight players to post at least 900 receiving yards and double-digit touchdowns this season. He's got 55% of his team's receiving touchdowns, which leads the league by a wide margin. At only 21 years old, Evans locks down your WR1 slot for the next decade.
4. Odell Beckham Jr—Speaking of locking down your WR1 slot for the next decade, have you seen Odell Beckham Jrplay football?
5. A.J. Green—Peyton Manning can't have more than a year or two left, which places Demaryius Thomas squarely behind Green (and maybe even Alshon Jeffery) in my rankings. Green has produced at an elite level throughout his career in spite of Andy Dalton, and I don't see that changing any time soon.
Andy Hicks: I can think of 15 guys right now that deserve to be in the discussion.
Before I get to my top five, I'll say a few words about the other ten. Kelvin Benjamin—I want to see want is going to happen in Carolina next year on both sides of the ball. Mike Evans—Similar to Benjamin. He is clearly top 10 for me, but the quarterback situation is weak. Josh Gordon—All world talent, but situation and one more bad decision makes him too risky. A.J. Green—Top 10 still, but Dalton continues to be unimpressive, as does Green up against Cleveland. T.Y. Hilton—Being the number one guy for Andrew Luck is going to be great, but smaller speedy guys tend to have shorter careers. DeAndre Hopkins—Has had a great second year, but quarterback situation is too flaky. Alshon Jeffery—Who knows what happens in Chicago next year, but Jeffery just sits outside the elite group. Calvin Johnson—Johnson will still sit in the top five for me next year, but niggling injuries and entering his 30th year next year moves him down a little in dynasty. Jordy Nelson—If he'd caught that 95 yarder maybe.....Seriously though will be 30 next year and although high he won't be top five. Sammy Watkins—The Bills are building from the defense up and don't have a decent quarterback to help Watkins move into the top five yet.
Now for the top 5:
1. Dez Bryant—Having only just turned 26 and still to fully mature, he is a scary proposition for opposing defenses. One of the few receivers who can destroy a defense on his own, as demonstrated against the Eagles recently, he has better stability in Dallas than most and a solid run games gives him the room to run through secondaries. Dallas has to break the bank on him. Without him this offense would fall apart.
2. Antonio Brown—Despite his undersized frame Brown is a machine. Eight consecutive games with eight catches for at least 70 yards; 30 consecutive games with at least five catches for 50 yards. That's a heck of a baseline. As for his ceiling, he's got 19 touchdowns in 30 games, and at least 90 yards in 18 of those 30 games. In a stable environment with a multitude of threats on the Steelers offense failing to disrupt his status and you have a guy that deserves to be at or near the top.
3. Odell Beckham Jrmdash;In an elite class of rookies has established himself as the benchmark for excellence. Of course there will be doubts on a possible new coach and how much Eli could regress, but Beckham is too good to miss out on the top five. I'm normally reluctant to place what will be a second year player this high, but his stats are as freakish as his ability.
4. Julio Jones—Lack of touchdowns and an Atlanta team likely to undergo a regime change holds him out of the top three, but is an elite receiver and with Matt Ryan unlikely to go anywhere has a solid passer to get him the ball.
5. Demaryius Thomas—Who knows how long Peyton Manning has left, but Thomas is clearly an upper echelon receiver with three top five fantasy finishes in the last three years. If Manning is in his last year or two then he may miss the top five until we see who the Broncos replace Manning with.
Matt Harmon: I differ from Chris in a few spots.
1. Dez Bryant – Amazing talent gets Dez Bryant the top spot. A good offense, and a quarterback that isn’t going anywhere seal the deal. Bryant does have his bouts of inconsistent stat lines, but you have to bet that won’t always be around. He’s not anywhere close to his ceiling.
2. Antonio Brown – There’s a strong argument to be made for Antonio Brown as the best wide receiver in the league. He’s consistent as they come, and plenty capable of making dynamic plays. His quarterback should be around several more years, and there isn’t much in the way of completion for targets. Not many have the all-around appeal of Brown.
3. Calvin Johnson – Many will have Calvin Johnson outside their top-5, and I get that. For me, I’m not scared of his age, and he still has as much upside as anyone. Receivers can produce well in to their thirties, so he still has many good years ahead. Injuries are a concern, but a few of his competitors have those same question marks.
4. Odell Beckham Jr – Like Phil said, have you seen this guy play? Odell Beckham Jr might be the most gifted athlete playing the position right now despite a lack of ideal height. Everything about him is ridiculous. Do not turn away now.
5. Jordy Nelson – Another older player, but another extremely safe bet. Jordy Nelson should have at least four or so more years playing with Aaron Rodgers. That is good enough right there. Nelson is a gifted receiver, but one of the best craftsmen at the position. Crossing the 30-year old mark shouldn’t slow him down. His game is built to survive a dip in athleticism.
Adam Harstad: The wide receivers are much stronger than the running backs.
1. Julio Jones—The last time Julio Jones had fewer than 50 receiving yards was 750 days ago. Antonio Brown's streak gets all the attention—as it should, since it's the longest streak in history—but Julio's streak of 50-yard games is not far behind and stands alone as the second-longest streak in history. That sort of consistency is truly amazing. Some were down on him relative to his peers early in the season when Julio wasn't scoring touchdowns, but touchdowns are extremely streaky and random; sure enough, Julio has a score in each of his last three games, and all is right in the world again. In addition to averaging more than 110 yards per game over his last two years—a plateau that Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, and Torry Holt have topped just once... combined—Julio is a Calvin Johnson-level athletic freak of nature who destroyed the combine with a broken foot. Also, he's 25.
2. A.J. Green—Green isn't the athletic freak that Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas are. He's not the unstoppable force that Dez Bryant is. At the same time, none of his peers have mastered the craft of playing receiver like Green has. And none of his peers can claim that they've made Andy Dalton look like a serviceable NFL quarterback.
3. Dez Bryant—Dez isn't the yardage threat of his peers from the first round of the 2010 and 2011 drafts, but he has established himself as the premier touchdown threat of the bunch. So why does he rank third instead of first? In my experience, yardage production tends to be a lot more predictable and reliable from year to year. Calvin Johnson, over the past six years, has scored 12, 5, 12, 16, 5, and 12 touchdowns. A guy like Julio who averages over 100 yards per game can live through some down touchdown years. A guy like Dez who only gets 80 yards per game, though, is uncomfortably reliant on them. What happens if Dallas' offense takes a step back and the touchdowns become harder to come by?
4. Antonio Brown—An argument could be made for having Antonio Brown higher, and I'd be extremely sympathetic to it. I think that right now Brown is playing the wide receiver position better than perhaps any other player in the league (the two with the closest arguments would probably be Jordy Nelson and Calvin Johnson). Brown's as young as Dez, Green, and Julio, and he's as talented as Dez, Green, and Julio. The only reason he finds himself behind them is because I think Dez, Green, and Julio have skills that will translate better into fantasy points. I think all three are going to find touchdowns easier to come by in future seasons. I think Green and Julio can match Brown in the yardage department. This isn't meant to take anything away from Brown, I just think he's going to be more of an Andre Johnson type going forward than a Calvin Johnson type.
5. Odell Beckham Jrmdash;Some would argue for putting the rookies higher. I have a hard time even putting them this high. Odell Beckham Jris coming off the best 10-game stretch I have ever seen from a rookie receiver. Ever. Including Randy Moss. At the same time, we see again and again and again that sometimes small samples fool us. What did we feel about Keenan Allen last year? What do we think about him now? How about Gio Bernard? Doug Martin and Trent Richardson? Michael Clayton? I don't mean to suggest Beckham is a bust—he's one of my top five dynasty wide receivers!—I just mean to remind that the chances are much higher that we're misjudging a guy off of a 10-game sample than they are that we're misjudging him off of a 4-year sample. So that's why Beckham stays behind the more proven members of the 26-and-under superstar club. At least for another season.
Steve Buzzard: The top of my wide receiver board is very fluid and is filled with some great assets. I think you could make a solid argument for any of them moving higher and several that I am not even listing to be included as well.
1. Dez Bryant – He has been on every one of my dynasty leagues since he was drafted so I may have a soft spot for him but he has a knack for finding the end zone.
2. Demaryius Thomas – He may be losing Peyton Manning in the next couple of years but while he has him he has the opportunity to be the best player each and every week. Once Manning leaves Thomas should still be good. While maybe not a popular opinion, I believe Thomas is the best wide receiver Manning has played with and Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison were over rated.
3. Julio Jones – Another guy I have had on a lot of my dynasty teams since he was drafted. The only thing holding Jones back from the top spot is his propensity for injuries. When he suits up he is the best in the business.
4. Antonio Brown – Brown is an absolute target hog and Big Ben loves to feed him. You can count on him week in and week out.
5. AJ Green – The only real problem with Green is Andy Dalton. If he ever gets a better quarterback I could see him competing for the top spot.
Summary:
Player |
Phil |
Andy |
Matt |
Adam |
Steve |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
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2 |
4 |
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1 |
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2 |
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2 |
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2 |
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* |
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* |
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* |
* |
3 |
* |
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* |
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5 |
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That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.