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This week we discuss the following:
- Week 15 sleepers
- Fantasy defenses for Weeks 15-16
- Matthew Stafford
- Josh Gordon
- Giants running backs
- Kerwynn Williams or Latavius Murray?
Week 15 sleepers
Pick one player you wouldn't consider an every-week starter, but you'd feel pretty good about putting him in your starting lineup this week.
Let's start with quarterbacks.
Jeff Pasquino: Call me crazy (it won't be the first time), but the first person that comes to mind is Jake Locker. He's starting again and he faces the Jets at home, a very soft pass defense. I could see Locker throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns plus running for 40 or more yards himself.
Stephen Holloway: I'm going accept Jeff's invitation to call him crazy. Despite the fact that the Jets defense has refused to intercept passes thrown directly to them in recent weeks, Jake Locker will find a way to produce turnovers. If forced to name a quarterback, I would prefer Manziel against the Bengals.
Chad Parsons: I think both Locker and Manziel have decent upside this week because of their rushing ability.
How about some running backs?
Jeff Pasquino: At running back, I'll go with Chris Johnson. Yeah, that guy. Against Tennessee, I can see a game script where the Jets want to run as much as possible, so he could present solid RB2 value.
Matt Waldman: I agree with Jeff on Chris Johnson facing his former team.
Kyle Wachtel: Chris Johnson has been borderline useless for a majority of the season, but there's just too much going for him this week to be written off. In fact, he can be safely inserted into starting lineups as an RB2 for this week. Rex Ryan has brought the team back to the "ground and pound" philosophy that led them to back-to-back AFC Championship games and there's now plenty of carries to go around. In the past two weeks, Johnson and Chris Ivory have had at least 16 carries in each game. There's no reason for that to regress either and on deck is Tennessee, which may have the worst run defense in the NFL. Andre Williams was the latest running back to resemble an All-Pro this past weekend. Not to mention, this will be the first time that Johnson plays his former team and although I'm not normally one for revenge games, Ryan is the type of coach that would happily put Johnson in position to seek that revenge and the Jets being out of playoff contention makes that all the more likely.
Chad Parsons: Sticking with the Jets RBs, I normally deplore running backs that do not catch passes, but even I like Chris Ivory this week in a matchup that the Jets have a chance to control.
Ari Ingel: Jonathan Stewart had a great game last week, and I think he should perform well again this week. He's failed us many times in the past, but I think he'll give us a second consecutive strong game.
Are there any Wide Receivers you like here?
Matt Waldman: Stedman Bailey comes to mind this week against Arizona, despite a decent secondary on paper that limited the Rams' receivers to seven catches for 53 yards in Week 10. Bailey has become a bigger part of the offense since then, showing fine rapport with Shaun Hill. The second-year receiver was a yard away from a touchdown reception last week against Washington. The game script favored the ground game by the third quarter, which factored heavily into Bailey's 2-catch, 47-yard day. I expect a more competitive contest this week and it means Bailey will be more involved.
Jeff Pasquino: My pick is Donte Moncrief. Reggie Wayne (torn triceps) will be limited at best, and Moncrief could find himself as the the WR2 for Andrew Luck. Giddy-up.
Matt Waldman: I'll add Marquess Wilson to the mix against the Saints. Wilson will have a full week of practice with Jay Cutler leading to this contest so they can establish a little more rapport on vertical routes. Wilson has more speed than Marshall and he's quicker in the open field after the catch. I expect Alshon Jeffery to lead the way with 90-120 yards, but the Saints have given up at least 65 yards to six "secondary" receivers in numerous matchups this year, including against Atlanta, Green Bay, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh—all offenses that have quarterbacks capable of pushing the ball down field and/or receivers with skill in the open field after the catch. Cutler-Jeffery-Wilson-Forte meet this profile. I'll take my chances with Wilson as a No.3.
Stephen Holloway: I like Matt's call on Wilson for the Bears against New Orleans and I will add Cole Beasley for the Cowboys against the Eagles in a couple of shoot-out games.
John Lee: I kind of agree with the Marquess Wilson call by a few of the guys, but I'm going to take the other receiver who should benefit from Brandon Marshall's season-ending injury: Josh Morgan.
Morgan is likely available in 99% of season-long leagues and has the absolute best WR-CB matchup of the week against the Saints' Corey White, who is allowing opposing quarterbacks to rate out at 125.5 when throw in his direction (from the slot position). ProFootballFocus ranks Corey White as the NFL's worst slot coverage corner and in the bottom five when covering outside of the slot (71st out of 75 qualifying CB's). Morgan should be open all afternoon on Sunday against White and I fully expect him to see 6+ targets, including high-value redzone targets, given his coverage and decent size (6'1"). In season-long format, Morgan is an option for extremely deep leagues, but in DFS-format, Morgan is a strong GPP option, in my opinion.
Chad Parsons: Kenny Stills and Marquess Wilson are prime examples of opportunity windfalls due to injury around them, but have enough talent to capitalize on the playing time bump. Wilson has a high floor for targets as the Bears for the season have four players with more than 100 targets and no other player with even 20 looks. Wilson is moving from the second group to replacing Brandon Marshall from group one.
Matt Waldman: Harry Douglas against the Steelers comes to mind immediately. The Steelers' pass defense is among the most forgiving to fantasy receivers this year and Julio Jones will at least be limited with a hip pointer. Roddy White still looked gimpy on Monday night, too. Douglas is a competent receiver who should get open and earn prime opportunities for the Falcons at home.
Ari Ingel: Kendall Wright hasn't been great, but I think this week he is a sneaky play against a horrible Jets secondary. Tennessee will also have to throw as Wilkerson is back and the Jets will be tough to run on.
Anyone have a tight end they like?
Chad Parsons: Tight end is tough as such a touchdown dependent and week to week proposition. I like Delanie Walker more than usual in the mid-TE1 range.
Fantasy defenses for Weeks 15-16
For people who've been streaming their fantasy defenses all season, what are some good Week 15 and Week 16 candidates to pick up (or stick with) during the final weeks of the fantasy playoffs?
Jeff Pasquino: You have to consider Tennessee against the Jets and Jacksonville in Weeks 15 and 16. I also like Baltimore (JAX, @HOU) and the Rams (AZ, NYG).
Matt Waldman: The Giants are worth consideration after the unit's work against the Titans (8 sacks, two interceptions, a fumble recovery, and a touchdown) where it only gave up 207 yards and a seven points. Washington and Robert Griffin are next. Griffin is close to hitting bottom as an NFL quarterback, and the offense is a complete mess. Expect more sacks, interceptions, and fumbles.
Stephen Holloway: I agree with Jeff's call of the Rams for DST for the next two games. They have posted back-to-back shut-out wins over Oakland and Washington, and now have the Cardinals without Palmer and Ellington, and then the New York Giants. They lost key defenders and have them back healthy. Consider also that with the return of Chris Long, Janoris Jenkins, and Trumaine Johnson, they have had 13 sacks over those two games while they only had 23 in the previous 11 games. Look for the Rams to continue to pressure and sack the quarterback and get more turnovers.
Ari Ingel: Yes, if the Rams happen to be out there, grab them and play them. They are playing like the best defense in football right now. I doubt they'll be on the waiver wire this week, but many teams that have been streaming defenses all season may have picked them up in the last week or two. If that's you, hold onto them for the rest of the ride. I also agree with Matt's mention of the New York Giants defense at home against Washington this week; and in Week 16, I think the Jaguars at home against Tennessee will be a great option.
Kyle Wachtel: I’m going to piggyback on Matt’s call of the New York Giants. They’ve only been middle the road when looking at the season as a whole, but they have a plus pass rush and that was on display the past two weeks when they recorded seven sacks against Jacksonville and then followed that up with eight more against Tennessee. Washington is on deck and has struggled mightily to protect their quarterback with another questionable offensive line in St. Louis to follow. The Giants are available in more than 60% of Yahoo! leagues and can be trusted as top-12 options in each week.
John Lee: This is one of those instances where it’s worth mentioning that this type of information is spoon-fed to all Footballguys as one of the weekly subscriber features; Clayton Gray puts together a weekly Strength of Schedule that outlines upcoming matchups based on historical fantasy points allowed and presents it in a reader-friendly fashion. If subscribers are not using this tool, they’re doing themselves a disservice because it is extremely useful for streaming positions and/or filling bye week gaps.
Of the teams likely available on waiver wires for Week 15, I think that Tennessee is a strong play at home against the Jets. Anytime that Geno Smith is running an offense, I feel that the opposing defense is highly likely to have a big play or two; the likelihood of the Jets scoring more than 20 points is low, which further supports the Titans as a decent streamer for this week. Other options might be Carolina (at home versus Tampa Bay), Tampa Bay (at Carolina), and the NY Giants (at home versus Washington). Streaming into next week, Tennessee could once again be a viable option against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are leading the league in sacks allowed.
Chad Parsons: John just mentioned the Titans and I think they are the fantasy defense of choice for the fantasy playoffs. On their own merits, they are not that great. Their matchups, however, are ideal. The Jets this week are followed by the Jaguars in Week 16. The odds point to streaming with the Titans matching or eclipsing most of the deemed weekly plays on defense in the playoffs.
Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford has been disappointing for long stretches of the season, but he seems to be picking up steam just in time for the fantasy playoffs. How reliable do you consider him to perform well over the next couple weeks?
Jeff Pasquino: With Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush both healthy now, I like his chances—in good weather. Home against Minnesota should be okay, but the road game in Chicago could be a challenge in Week 16. The Lions simply have to keep winning to setup the Week 17 matchup at Green Bay for the division, as that might be the only way the Lions get into the postseason. I would feel better starting Stafford both weeks if I knew that the weather in Chicago was favorable, but if you assume it is passable, I would pencil Stafford in as a QB1 for both weeks.
Matt Waldman: I expect good work from Stafford. The Vikings defense has played reasonably well, but the game will be at home, Calvin Johnson is healthier, Reggie Bush is healthy, and Joique Bell is playing well. Stafford's weaponry is in place for a solid stretch run. As long as the weather isn't a factor Week 16 in Chicago, I'd have confidence in Stafford as a mid-level QB1 (in the #5-#8 range).
Stephen Holloway: I also agree with both Jeff and Matt that Stafford will continue to produce with the now-healthy Calvin Johnson, the already effective Golden Tate, and several excellent receiving backs. Definitely solid this week and only dependent somewhat on the weather next week at Chicago.
Ari Ingel: Start Stafford with confidence the next two weeks and don't overthink it. He's playing better, the teams he is playing are weak, and he has a healthy compliment of weapons.
Kyle Wachtel: Minnesota has played respectable defense this season and held Matthew Stafford to just 185 passing yards and one touchdown in the first matchup, but Calvin Johnson will be back this time around and Stafford has the potential to post borderline QB1 numbers just by throwing to him alone. That game will also be at home which adds more confidence in Stafford as a low-end QB1 for this week. In the following week, Detroit will travel to Chicago, whom they just recently hung 34 points on while Stafford passed for 390 yards and two touchdowns—he’ll be a high end QB1 in that game.
John Lee: Matthew Stafford could legitimately take your team to a fantasy championship. Stafford has been somewhat disappointing over the course of the season, but it appears that Calvin Johnson is the gas that makes the Detroit offensive engine run. Calvin Johnson returned from his injury in Week #10, but was not 100% until Thanksgiving; since then, Matthew Stafford is averaging 350 yards passing and 2.5 touchdowns per game…not to mention the 34 points per game averaged by the Lions’ offense over that span. This weekend, Stafford and the Lions host the Minnesota Vikings who have no answer for Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate; next week, Stafford will get to faceoff versus the defense that has allowed more passing touchdowns than any other team in the league, the Chicago Bears.
Josh Gordon
Josh Gordon's fantasy owners have been waiting a long time for him, but after his disappointing Week 14 performance, there are rumors that he doesn't know the offense as well as he should, and that he's out of shape. His athleticism still gives him huge upside potential, but do you trust him enough to start him this week?
Jeff Pasquino: Gordon was open on some deep passes last week and just missed a connection from Hoyer. Now with Johnny Manziel starting, I think Gordon could get a cleaner deep ball and make plays with the young quarterback just from improvised plays. I think you can start him in start three wide receiver leagues and PPR leagues without too much hesitance.
Matt Waldman: I agree with Jeff that Manziel's skill at buying time, and most important, delivering a ball with velocity and accuracy on the move, will make Gordon a receiver more likely to reach WR1 upside that fantasy owners have hoped for. While I don't think Cleveland's organization has ever been on the same page with the drafting or playing of Manziel, they're giving it a shot now. Expect more opportunities for Gordon to make plays in tight windows and in the vertical game.
The "is he in shape?" questions are predictable. He was gassed against Atlanta and Buffalo at times, but there is a difference between training and performing in games. I wouldn't overreact on this point. I've been recommending Gordon since the week before his return as a WR3 type. If you've prepared as such then he should exceed expectations this week and next. If you've been expecting WR1 production then he might come closer to those expectations at least one of the next two weeks.
Stephen Holloway: If Gordon indeed does not know the playbook, that should not be as critical a factor going forward with Manziel at quarterback as these two can definitely team up for solid production in ad lib situations, which may be plentiful. If the lack of playbook knowledge is untrue, all the better as Gordon is by far the best receiver the Browns have, and he should be targeted early and often on short patterns to help get Manziel comfortable. I would not hesitate to keep Gordon in the lineup. Despite the Browns' lack of confidence thus far in Manziel, he should be better than Hoyer, who over the last four games has barely completed 50% of his passes and thrown one passing TD and eight interceptions.
Ari Ingel: Unless you have a legit other option, you are starting Gordon. Even if he is out of shape and has failed to master the the play book, he is still their best receiver by far. He is a dominant player and every receiver has bad weeks, so don't play based on last week's numbers.
Kyle Wachtel: I think it’s embarrassing that Cleveland is using Gordon as a scapegoat when their offensive troubles have been rooted in sticking with a bumbling Brian Hoyer at quarterback—Mike Pettine’s stubbornness may have very well even cost the team a playoff spot. I’m not worried about Gordon at all in fantasy and believe he’s a high-end WR2 at the worst. Despite his so called struggles, he’s played on three-quarters of the offenses snaps, racking up 34 targets, 17 receptions, and 210 receiving yards in three games. With Manziel under center and more playing time likely, he should only continue to improve.
John Lee: In the Week 12 Roundtable, I predicted that Josh Gordon would have problems adjusting to the offense upon his return. I laid out three reasons that I was scared about Gordon’s fantasy prospects: (1) Brian Hoyer’s inability to throw an accurate deep pass; (2) a change in coaching philosophy in Cleveland over the past year; and (3) the likelihood of Hoyer and Gordon needing a few games to get synchrony. Three weeks later, I think each of these predictions has been validated. First, Gordon has been used more as a possession receiver than a deep threat; when he has been targeted deep, Hoyer has missed Gordon badly. Gordon has also been held out of the game on third down plays, which speaks volumes about the current coaching philosophy (he would have never been benched on third down in 2013). Likewise, there have been occasions where Brian Hoyer has thrown a pass that he expected Gordon to go after, only to find that Gordon was on a different page altogether.
That said, Gordon now has three games under his belt, which should have helped his level of fitness, his understanding of the playbook, and his ability to gain synchrony with Hoyer. He is averaging 12 targets per game since his return and I always start players who will get touches. I cannot envision a scenario where I would bench Gordon in favor of another player and feel confident that Gordon will perform worse than that player, so I'm rolling Gordon out there in almost every season-long league.
Chad Parsons: Outside of having a stacked receiver grouping where Odell Beckham or the like is my final starter, Josh Gordon is in my lineup for the fantasy playoffs. Am owner cannot predict how many points they will need to win a matchup and it is all about upside. Every team is good and can put up one of the highest scores of the season in your league...this week. Gordon's potential to have 30 points minimizes the caution flag that single digits can have on a final fantasy outcome.
Giants running backs
Will Andre Williams pull a Jeremy Hill and displace Rashad Jennings as the primary back in New York the way Hill seems to have overtaken Giovani Bernard in Cincinnati?
Jeff Pasquino: Andre Williams is not as good as Jennings, so if Jennings is a go, the Giants want to use Jennings. Williams may get a little more work after that solid performance against Tennessee, but Jennings is the lead back when healthy.
Matt Waldman: Andre Williams will be the lead back only if Jennings' injury remains a factor. Williams is not as talented a runner, blocker, or receiver as Jennings, but he's healthy and that's what New York needs. Get Williams a running start downhill through a crease and he'll do damage. As long as Odell Beckham can terrorize defenses and keep them honest against the run, Williams will earn some of these opportunities. He'll have a shot at 15-20 touches.
Stephen Holloway: I agree again that if Jennings is healthy, he is the better player for the Giants, particularly as a receiver out of the backfield.
Ari Ingel: A healthy Jennings is the superior running back this year. In dynasty, I think William's has a shot to overtake him next year, or form more of an RBBC. The problem with Bernard is that he is definitely not a lead back and was miscast as one. So was Andre Ellington, by the way, and now he is out. Jennings is a bigger guy and his veteran presence is needed on that team right now.
Kyle Wachtel: I fall right in line with the rest of the group: Jennings is the more talented back and will remain the starter as long as he’s healthy. Before Williams steamrolled the putrid Tennessee defense, he struggled to produce as anything more than a replacement level player. Granted, if the Giants do jump out to an early lead, Williams can be expected to get extra burn and may be worthy of a flex play.
John Lee: There's not a chance that Williams will displace a healthy Jennings. Until last week, Williams had looked pedestrian in every game he played, averaging under 3.0 yards per carry. When he amassed 131 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Titans last Sunday, let’s not forget it was the Titans who gave up those yards. That is the same Titans’ team that gave up six 100-yard rushers prior to Williams and have yielded 141.5 yards per game on the season. Williams' biggest upside is that he tends to get a goal-line carry here and there, but that is not enough to make me consider him as a viable fantasy option for the remainder of this season.
Kerwynn Williams or Latavius Murray?
Who do you like better over the next two weeks: Kerwynn Williams or Latavius Murray?
Jeff Pasquino: Considering matchups (AZ must face STL and SEA), this is an easy call. Murray could outscore Williams in Week 15 alone in the rematch against KC.
Matt Waldman: I like Williams' talent more than Murray's, but I think Murray has the better schedule. If the Cardinals were to incorporate Williams' receiving acumen into the offense, I would have still given Williams the clear edge. However, the Cardinals haven't incorporated Marion Grice or Williams (two of the better young prospects as receivers from the backfield that I've seen in recent seasons) so I'm not expecting a sudden change. Murray should earn more carries and he at least has one good matchup this week whereas Williams' matchups both weeks aren't good. Sometimes you have to take it one week at a time in the postseason, so I'll choose Murray even if I thought Williams was a sleeper from the 2013 NFL Draft.
Stephen Holloway: Matt nailed the choice between Murray and Williams. The Raiders and Murray have by far the more favorable schedule and even though it is the Raiders, who can surprise in a bad way, expect Murray to out-produce Williams over the next two weeks.
Ari Ingel: Murray, and it's not close ... and that's due to both schedule and talent. Arizona is in trouble on offense at the moment.
Kyle Wachtel: Williams accomplished a feat that not even Andre Ellington was able to do this year: he reached 100 rushing yards in a game. With that being said, this offense is in shambles and that game is poised to be an outlier. Both St. Louis and Seattle are playing much better defense lately and it’s tough to trust Williams as anything more than an low-upside RB3. On the other hand, Murray is on the heels of a 23-carry outing and is lined up to face a Kansas City defense that he broke out against in Week 12 for 112 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He can be considered a safe RB2 play this week and then more of and RB3/Flex play in Week 16 against Buffalo.
John Lee: Although neither of these players excites me because of their respective offensive lines (Arizona and Oakland are ranked 25th and 31st in run blocking, respectively), I prefer Latavius Murray because of his ensuing matchups and his explosiveness. Over the next two weeks, Williams will face the Rams and the Seahawks, two formidable defenses, while Murray gets a Kansas City rush defense that is yielding a league-high 4.9 yards per carry and Buffalo, who play much worse on the road than at home.
Chad Parsons: I'll take Latavius Murray with his upside for a difference-making play or long touchdown. Kerwynn Williams was a surprise performer and not much different than Stepfan Taylor or Marion Grice. Williams has higher odds to hit, say, five fantasy points, but the upside of 15-20 favors Latavius Murray.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.