This week we discuss the following:
- Read-option and Pistol quarterbacks
- Johnny Manziel
- C.J. Anderson versus LeSean McCoy
- Tre Mason
- Jimmy Graham
- Game previews
Read-option and Pistol quarterbacks
Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III III, and Colin Kaepernick were three of the league's brightest young stars in the 2013 and 2014 seasons, but a lot of the luster has come off since then. Griffin is benched, and Newton and Kaepernick have struggled to make their offenses work. Russell Wilson is still having some success running read-option plays, but even he has cooled off in the past few weeks.
Has the read-option lost its effectiveness?
Jason Wood: I joked on Twitter last week, "Remember when the read/option was going to revolutionize the game? That was a fun six months."
While I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek, there is a lot of truth to the idea that the read-option is the latest in a long line of "revolutions" that turn out to be "evolutions." As Sigmund Bloom pointed out in our Twitter discussion, the percentage of teams using the read option continues to rise as does the percentage of total plays called. So it would be unfair to say it's failed or gone away.
But I think the idea that a new breed of quarterbacks—who perhaps are as well known for their legs as their arms (or in many cases more so for their legs)—was a myth. Pocket passers are using the read-option and using it effectively. Why? Because any NFL-caliber defense needs to be kept uneasy. They can't know what's coming.
The challenge quarterbacks like Newton and Kaepernick have faced is an inability to improve their game. They're no better at reading defenses today than they were on Day One of their rookie training camps. Teams have evolved against them, and they haven't answered back. That's in stark contrast to Russell Wilson, who certainly can run with the best of them, but has continued—year in, year out—to become a smarter and more efficient passer.
Ryan Hester: I couldn't agree with more with Jason's points on the lack of growth of guys like Newton and Kaepernick. Newton's injuries this season have prevented him from running as much as in past years, and he has shown that he can't take advantage of defenses with just his arm and his head.
Kaepernick's inability to mature as a passer has hamstrung his team into relying on a back that's past his prime in Frank Gore and has nullified a very gifted wide receiver in Michael Crabtree because Kaepernick can only make one read and trusts Anquan Boldin more. Kaepernick has four very talented and diverse receivers on his team, and he can't put the pieces together in the passing game.
Remember, Steve Johnson had three thousand-yard seasons in a row and a ten-touchdown season in Buffalo. And Brandon Lloyd led the NFL in receiving yards in 2010 with 1,448. Ironically, both Johnson and Lloyd were top-12 fantasy receivers that season.
Can you imagine what Russell Wilson could do with that receiving corps? In their Thanksgiving night game, Cris Collinsworth highlighted the biggest difference between Wilson and Kaepernick. Wilson runs to pass, while Kaepernick runs when he has abandoned the pass. Wilson will continue to progress in his career because of his work ethic and the realization that his legs need to help his arm—not replace it.
The bottom line is that in the business that is the NFL, teams don't want their franchise players (particularly those like Newton making a significant chunk of money) taking big hits and missing games. Pocket quarterbacks will always be the standard.
Jeff Haseley: I agree with Ryan about Russell Wilson. He is the exception to the rule of the struggling quarterbacks who use their feet to make plays and run the read-option regularly. Steve Young used his feet in his early years and he eventually modified his game to that of a pocket passer. Young, like Wilson, would still take off down field with the ball if the situation presented itself. The style of offense back then didn't feature the read-option much at all, but Young did enough with his feet to separate himself from most of the other quarterbacks around the league. There's a lot of similarities between Russell Wilson and Steve Young. I am convinced we have not seen the best of what Wilson can bring to the table. Once Seattle surrounds him with better receiving talent and unleashes a more attacking style of offense, Wilson will thrive even more so than he is now. He has the talent, the intangibles and the team to elevate his game. It's only a matter of time.
Mark Wimer: I totally agree with Ryan about how Kaepernick's inability to do a passing progression in his reads is wasting a lot of talented receivers on his team—I am a Crabtree owner in multiple dynasty leagues and I just hate having to watch him being wasted in favor of the aging Boldin. As Jason suggests and Ryan hypothesizes about, Crabtree in Seattle would do way more than he is in San Francisco this year.
One might wonder whether it the scheme itself that's no longer effective, or the individual players running it? I think that the criticism has to come down on the players. NFL Defensive coordinators have enough tape on Kaepernick and Newton now to recognize their tendencies and to attack them—which as we've seen has limited their effectiveness to a great extent this year. Wilson, though, is still winning games and playing well despite having less talented receivers around him. How does he do this? By spreading the ball around and using his football smarts: over the last two weeks, his main receivers have been—Jermaine Kearse (seven targets for 4/53/0 receiving), Doug Baldwin (six for 4/34/0), Luke Wilson (six for 5/60/0), and Tony Moeaki (six for 5/97/0). During that time span Seattle has beaten Arizona and San Francisco by the same margin (19-3).
I also agree with the notion that NFL teams don't want their high-dollar quarterbacks breaking out of the pocket with regularity and taking hits outside of the womb that the rules have created for a quarterback in the pocket. The chances of getting hurt on a running play (unless the field is wide open and the quarterback can slide or scamper out of bounds after 10 or so yards) have to be much higher than in the pocket where defenders can't unload on the quarterback in the way they can once he leaves the pocket and becomes a ball carrier. It only makes sense to keep your passer in that protective womb of the pocket.
The read-option will remain a tool in the offensive coordinator's toolbox going forwards, but we won't see offenses built around it at the NFL level, in my opinion.
Johnny Manziel
Brian Hoyer will get the start at quarterback again this week for the Browns, but he's on a short leash and we could see Johnny Manziel take over in Week 15 (if not before then, like at halftime of Week 14). If that happens, what are his fantasy prospects down the stretch? Would Manziel help or hurt Josh Gordon's fantasy value compared to Brian Hoyer?
Jason Wood: I've never been a fan of Manziel's prospects as a pro. Were it not for the very thoughtful analysis by Matt Waldman, who convinced me to at least keep an open mind, I would've insisted that Manziel would flame out of the league. Thanks to Waldman, I'm instead taking a watchful, waiting approach to Johnny Football. Still, there's no way I'd put him in my starting fantasy lineup—either in traditional leagues or in daily contests—until I see I first see him play well as a pro.
Phil Alexander: If Manziel ends up being named the starter for Week 15, I don’t see how it wouldn't be at least a moderate upgrade for Josh Gordon. Hoyer is completing an abysmal 56.3% of his passes this season (better than only Michael Vick and Drew Stanton). It’s taken 29 errant targets from Hoyer for Gordon to muster 15 catches for 195 yards in two games. If Manziel gets his chance it may not always be pretty, but I have no doubt he and Gordon would hook up on some huge plays. Manziel’s improvisational ability, superb deep ball accuracy, and arm strength make him the perfect quarterback to work with a receiver who nearly led the league in catches of 20+ yards, despite missing two games last season.
Ryan Hester: I like Manziel's fantasy potential because of his running ability: in any game he starts, he could score 8-10 points even if he throws zero passes. In fact, I was going to start Manziel in the first round of the playoffs in the Footballguys staff league this week until the Browns declared that they'd be sticking with Hoyer. My quarterback situation was impacted by Nick Foles' injury, so I ended up with Zach Mettenberger and Colt McCoy and then got Manziel this week. If he starts for the Browns in Week 15, maybe he'll start for my fantasy team as well (although the Bengals are a tough matchup).
If Manziel does become the starter, I believe the effect on Gordon would be somewhere between neutral and very positive. Manziel is known for bold throws into tight windows and can throw the ball up to his playmakers, a description Gordon fits. Tell me again why Cleveland isn't starting him?
Jeff Haseley: I'll dissent from the views of my colleagues and tell you why I think sticking with Hoyer is better for Josh Gordon's short-term fantasy prospects than switching to Manziel would be.
First, Hoyer has more experience in the league reading defenses and exploiting certain situations in coverage that would benefit Gordon more. Manziel is a talented athlete who can make plays and throw the ball all over the field, but the intangibles are what concern me right now.
Second, Manziel will run the ball more as opposed to staying in the pocket, surveying the field and making a timely throw to an open receiver, likely Gordon.
And third, Hoyer knows Gordon and his ability to get open better than Manziel does. The rapport the two share will ultimately be the reason why Hoyer is the better man for the job, at least for this year.
C.J. Anderson versus LeSean McCoy
Who will score more fantasy points the rest of the way—C.J. Anderson or LeSean McCoy?
Jason Wood: Both players are must starts for the remainder of the fantasy season. McCoy has quietly righted the ship (100+ yards rushing in four of his last seven games) and has home games against Seattle and Dallas followed by a Week 16 road game against the Washington. Anderson gets the Bills, Chargers and Bengals...not as optimal but hardly untenable. I'm going to put my homer glasses on here and say McCoy outpaces Anderson but both are top five running backs the rest of the way.
Phil Alexander: I'm not sure I can get on board with Jason's pronouncement that they're both top five the rest of the way, but I'd happily agree with top ten. In any case, I’m comfortable declaring Anderson the winner by virtue of his association with Peyton Manning. During Manning’s career, his starting running backs have averaged an astounding 1,518 total yards and 10.4 touchdowns per season. Those are numbers Anderson would be crushing had he been given the starting job to begin the season.
I disagree with Jason's analysis of their respective schedules. In the next three games, the Broncos face Buffalo’s tough rush defense (though it’s at home, in a game Denver is favored by double digits), followed by a neutral matchup at San Diego, and a winnable one at Cincinnati. Philadelphia has a difficult test this week at home against Seattle, a plus matchup in Week 15 at home vs. Dallas, and a tough Week 16 assignment against Washington. The schedule is slightly in Anderson’s favor, but I'm not sure that even matters. His huge workloads and involvement in the passing game make him near matchup proof, and immune to bad game script. If you were able to scoop Anderson off waivers when Ronnie Hillman went down, congratulations are in order. You are the owner of a league-tilting RB1.
Ryan Hester: C.J. Anderson has been a revelation. Assuming he stays the starter in Denver and continues getting close to his current workload (an assumption I'm willing to make based on his play), Anderson outscores McCoy for Weeks 14-16.
Jeff Haseley: C.J. Anderson will score more points than LeSean McCoy the rest of the way. It's clear that Anderson is the Broncos go-to back both as a rusher and as a versatile receiver. I would argue that Denver's schedule against the run is not great (BUF, at SD, at CIN, OAK), but I still like Anderson to keep the momentum flowing. McCoy has come on strong lately, but there is still the threat of Darren Sproles stealing away some carries (even inside the five yard line). Anderson could be the running back that drives you to a championship. The Broncos offense is matchup proof and Anderson is a big reason for its success.
Mark Wimer: I think the McCoy has a higher value because he seems more likely to score touchdowns—Darren Sproles is mostly a returner at this point though he does siphon off 3-4 receptions per game from McCoy, but McCoy is being used in the red-zone now and he's scoring regularly lately. Anderson has just one rushing TD so far in 98 rushes, with two receiving scores in 22 chances—McCoy has three rushing scores over his last 86 rushes, though he has zero receiving scores to date this year.
Steve Buzzard: Both C.J. Anderson and LeSean McCoy are top-tier fantasy starters the rest of the way, but I would prefer Anderson going forward because Peyton Manning opens up the Broncos offense to score so many points. We have all seen what average running backs have done in a Peyton Manning offense over his career including a top-five finish by Knowshon Moreno last year. We have also seen Anderson and the middling talent of Ronnie Hillman put up top-five value the last few weeks. I don't see any reason to believe that won't continue. Manning and his receiving crew open up so many opportunities for his running backs and the offense will be in position to score a lot of touchdowns. All of this is why I like Anderson even though McCoy would certainly be a great asset.
The most important thing to take away from this topic is about valuing complex player situations and backup running backs in particular. It shows us why a player like Anderson should have had a lot of value throughout the season despite not playing. You want to make sure you are highly valuing running backs that are in a situation where the offense is explosive, there isn't a big talent gap between the first string running back and his backups and he would get a heavy workload if he were to get an opportunity. Anderson clearly fit all of these categories all year long and was on a lot of my teams even when players were available that would score more points. You don't win fantasy football titles by finding the players that will score you the most points over the season; you win by finding the players that, if given the right opportunity, will score the most points when you start them. Anderson clearly fit that description and now you have a first-round-value player on your team getting ready to take down a championship.
Tre Mason
Where do you rank Tre Mason among fantasy running backs going forward?
Jason Wood: I know the Rams have people feeling good right now, but I don't trust this offense. Given the lack of running back depth this year, I'm guessing if you're fortunate to make the playoffs and have Mason, you're going to have him in your lineup. Unfortunately he's got very difficult matchups in Weeks 15 and 16. I would view Mason as a decent fantasy running back for a playoff contender, nothing more.
Phil Alexander: Mason is a middle-of-the-pack RB2 for me—somewhere in the mix with the Joique Bells and Isaiah Crowells of the world. I’m not going out of my way to upgrade him much after he predictably ran wild on the hapless Raiders. Before exploding for three touchdowns against Oakland, Mason had only found the paint once in his other six starts. If the matchup isn't in his favor, he’s a volume-dependent back on a team that’s usually playing from behind (especially on the road). If you can make it to Week 16, Mason’s sweet home matchup with the Giants looks like one to exploit, but getting there will be tough. His next two are at Washington, and home for Arizona’s top ranked rush defense in Week 15.
Ryan Hester: Mason is still just a mid-to-low RB2 for me. He's still game-script dependent, and his schedule in Weeks 14 and 15 is very difficult (at WAS, vs. ARI) before a friendly matchup in Week 16 (vs. NYG). If St. Louis falls behind, Mason still isn't the most accomplished pass-catcher, which could hurt his weekly value. In short, I agree with everything Phil said.
Mark Wimer: Mason is going to be a situational starter—against cupcake matchups like Oakland's rush defense I'd plug him in for sure, but I haven't seen him dominate a strong defensive front yet. I'd say he's a fantasy RB2 with upside depending on matchup going forwards (he's going to get a lot of work I think, but how much he does with those touches is going to depend on the matchup as he is still learning to play at the NFL level).
Steve Buzzard: I agree with those that mentioned above Mason is a mid-level RB2 that doesn't have a ton of upside over the next couple of weeks in tough matchups. He is even slightly lower in PPR leagues as he isn't involved much in the passing game. Last week he blew up against an exploitable Raiders team that clearly didn't show up. That said, you are going to be hard pressed to keep him on your bench during the playoffs as you probably don't have many better options so I would ride him out unless you can find an upgrade elsewhere.
Jimmy Graham
Jimmy Graham was held without a target this past week. In your fantasy playoffs, you are starting him every week without hesitation. But let's talk daily fantasy contests, where he's still the first or second most expensive tight end on all the major daily sites. Are you at all worried that the Steelers showed the rest of the league how to defend Graham? If you were burned by him last week, are you doubling down on him this week, or taking a cautious approach until he demonstrates that he's still worth a super-premium price?
Jason Wood: Last week was a total fluke. Brees had his best game of the year and never targeted Graham. As much as we like to put our analytical caps on...randomness happens. Incidentally the Steelers were one of the easiest defenses to play for fantasy tight ends going into last week. Graham has no less value in daily contests today than he did a week ago, but I'm not sure it makes sense to pay his salary. I feel as though you have the opportunity for more profit arbitrage at the tight end position by correctly picking a one-week standout than at other skill positions.
Phil Alexander: Graham’s Week 13 donut highlighted the volatility of the tight end position in fantasy football, and will henceforth serve as Exhibit A in the case against paying up for tight ends in DFS cash games. That being said, although Graham is still the second most expensive player at the position, he comes in $1,500 cheaper than Gronkowski this week on DraftKings. Is Gronkowski safer than Graham? Yes. Is he now officially the undisputed tight end overlord? Yes. But is there a 23% gap between him and Graham, as this week’s pricing suggests? No.
Graham draws a Panthers defense that’s given up either a touchdown or 100+ receiving yards to a tight end in each of the last four games. In fact, it was only four weeks ago that Graham went for 7-83-1 vs. Carolina. Don’t be surprised if Graham is your number one scorer at tight end this week (or any week for that matter). It’s going to take a lot more than one lousy game to justifiably downgrade a player with his track record.
Ryan Hester: I don't believe there is a "blueprint" for stopping Graham. What is slowing him down, however, is injuries. He doesn't appear to be right physically, and his snap count and the situations in which he played (and didn't play) last week further highlight that belief. Graham's ceiling is always ultra-high, but I'm more likely to pick a super-cheap option (perhaps Jermaine Gresham as—last week notwithstanding—Pittsburgh has struggled defending tight ends) and spend my money on elite players at other positions. Graham's floor is now as low as some of those cheap options, making his price premium ceiling-dependent and, therefore, too rich for my blood.
Jeff Haseley: I was surprised like everyone else to see Jimmy Graham completely neutralized last week. I think a lot of that was the venerable Dick LeBeau game-planning to keep Graham from beating them. I am not at all concerned about him having another dud game, especially not against Carolina this week, a team he has had a lot of success against in the past. From a DFS standpoint, it will be hard not to have him in my lineup this week.
Mark Wimer: Not worried, I will roll with Graham when I start Brees in my GPP/Tourney lineups. Last week was a fluke in my opinion.
Steve Buzzard: I don't think the league will be able to specifically mimic the Steelers game plan in such short order. Even if they were, the Saints could adjust their game flow for a special talent like Graham. I therefore have no problem staying the course with him in a daily league. However, I would probably consider him more of a tournament-only play this week. This doesn't necessarily have as much to do with Graham as it has to do with the pricing structure at the major sites like FanDuel and DraftKings where it is tough to pay up for Jimmy Graham and if you do you have a slightly more consistent and higher upside player in Rob Gronkowski as an option. That said, when it comes to tournament plays I think Graham makes for a good one because a lot of players will be off him this week and he always has the potential to blow up for multiple touchdowns especially against the Panthers defense as the Saints are expected to score 30 points this week.
Game previews
Let's take a close look at how some of this weekend's games are expected to play out, and what it means specifically for the fantasy matchups they feature. We'll start with the Thursday night game.
Jason, what do you see happening when Dallas faces Chicago?
Jason Wood: Dallas and Chicago have to shake off rough outings this past week and look to get back on the right track. For Dallas, the stakes are particularly high after falling flat against the Eagles. Another loss—to the lowly Bears—could derail another season and send the Cowboys toward another "not quite good enough for the playoffs" finish. Given how bad the Bears pass defense has been (30th in the league), this should be a 'get right' game for Romo and Company. The weather looks to cooperate, as it'll be cold but not windy in the Windy City. The Bears have less to play for but Jay Cutler has to finish the season well or the Bears need to look long and hard at whether he's really the franchise quarterback they hoped he was last offseason when they gave him a monster contract extension. Both running games (DeMarco Murray and Matt Forte in particular) will be counted on for massive showings in what should be the first round of many league's fantasy playoffs.
Let's turn to Seattle at Philadelphia. Ryan, how will this game unfold?
Ryan Hester: This game should be much different than Seattle's last contest, which led to San Francisco's offense putting more people to sleep than the Thanksgiving food comas being induced across America at the time. The 49.5 point Las Vegas Over/Under agrees here as it's Seattle's highest set total of the season (the next closest being 48 vs. Denver, and 47 vs. Dallas and Green Bay).
Philadelphia's up-tempo offense, by its very nature, will afford them more scoring opportunities than most teams get against Seattle. Expect more from the Philadelphia skill players as well (particularly Mark Sanchez) than you'd expect from a typical Seattle opponent.
Philadelphia will force Seattle to play a much different style than the one they've been employing while winning their last two games 19-3 each, which means that Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson should have big games. With the way Philadelphia's secondary can be exploited, a guy like Jermaine Kearse, who can get behind a defense, becomes a potential deep league asset.
We'll go next to the AFC North, where Pittsburgh travels to Cincinnati. Jeff, can you give us a rundown of how we can expect this game to go?
Jeff Haseley: The way I see this game script is a heavy dose of LeVeon Bell and the Pittsburgh running game resulting in moderate success against the Bengals. Cincinnati on the other hand will find the most success passing the ball, where they have struggled as a whole recently. The Steelers are giving up the most passing yards per game over the last four weeks (328), so this is a good match up for Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. Green has been the primary receiver for the Bengals lately with not much success elsewhere in the passing game. Cincinnati's weakness is also Pittsburgh's weakness so this will either be a get-right game for Dalton and the passing game or a performance that will be rather average. My gut says Dalton and Green will connect for a score at least once but I don't see a high scoring game. The hand injury to Ben Roethlisberger is concerning (though he denies it), which also leads me to believe Bell will see a lot of touches, especially running the ball. The first to score 20 points will win this game, in my opinion. I think both offenses will struggle at times and not be able to sustain drives. We could see a total of three to four field goals as a result. Ultimately I see Cincinnati pulling this one out, 20-17.
Back over to the NFC, what will happen when Atlanta travels to Green Bay? Mark?
Mark Wimer: I follow both of these teams closely as I live near Atlanta these days and Green Bay was my boyhood favorite while living in Nebraska.
As the weather grows colder in Green Bay, the Packers are relying on Eddie Lacy to help set the table for Rodgers and the receivers. Against the suspect Falcons run defense, Lacy will get his share of touches as Green Bay is running a balanced attack. In the passing phase of the game, Aaron Rodgers will pick on the hapless Falcons' secondary (32nd in the NFL in net passing yards allowed per game) using all three of his wide receivers: Nelson, Cobb, and Adams. I look for Green Bay to score a lot of points—say 31-35 at a minimum, despite sub-freezing weather Monday Night. Atlanta is giving up 2.5 touchdowns per week, and Green Bay's offense is well above average in both phases of the game.
For Atlanta, Steven Jackson will get high-teens touches for 50-70 yards against the improving-but-still-suspect Packers' defensive front, putting the onus on Matt Ryan to throw for a chance to win. Ryan will do so (probably finding Julio Jones for one score at least—Green Bay averages 1.6 passing touchdowns allowed per game, and a little over one interception per contest) and probably approach 300 yards passing as the Falcons chase the Packers' lead all night (and steadily lose ground as the Packers outpace them).
I'd expect the Packers to win by a couple touchdowns, with a final score in the range of 31-17 or 35-21.
We'll finish off with a look at San Francisco at Oakland. Steve, what's in store for fantasy owners with players in this game?
Steve Buzzard: The 49ers have been very run-heavy again this year as they rank 26th in pass-run ratio when taking into consideration game situations. This week they have a prime matchup with the Oakland Raiders where Vegas likes the 49ers as an eight point favorite and they are expected to score 25 points. Typically all of these factors would point to a great running game effort by Frank Gore. This may even be the most likely scenario.
However, the scenario I find more intriguing is that the 49ers really need to win this game in order to keep their fading playoff chances alive. In addition to that, they really need to get Colin Kaepernick back to playing the way he has played in the last few years in order to get past the next few games. What better way to right a sinking ship and get Kaepernick’s confidence up by letting him go out and exploit the Raiders pass defense that is giving up 8% more yards per attempt than league average? We have also seen in the past few years that Kaepernick is often given the opportunity (or takes the opportunity more often) to run a lot more in the playoffs than in the regular season. With the 49ers playoff odds decreasing each week, every remaining game is like a playoff game, so we may see an increased workload for Kaepernick’s legs as well. From a DFS perspective, Kaepernick will be lightly owned because everyone watched him fall on his face on Thanksgiving and most players have been burned by him enough this year already, which makes Kaepernick’s upside in GPPs outstanding. On the other hand, the most likely scenario is the 49ers relying on the run game, which gives Kaepernick a low floor and keeps him as more of a GPP play than a cash game option.
Finally, if you are streaming defenses or are deciding on one in DFS, the 49ers defense makes for a great option. In defenses I am looking for a team that is a heavy favorite and is playing against an inaccurate quarterback. The reason for this is that the game script may require this quarterback to take a lot of chances late in the game, which could lead to pick-sixes, sacks, fumbles, etc., all of which are more important than a low-scoring game. This matchup would certainly qualify for that potential game script.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.