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The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player with 6 Votes
Pierre Garcon, Was
Adam Harstad: Garcon received an eye-popping 181 targets last season, the 4th-highest total of the last decade. With Desean Jackson in town and Jordan Reed back on the field, there’s no way he’s repeating that number, which means his total production is primed to fall hard.
Stephen Holloway: Pierre Garcon played in every game last year for only the second time in his six-year NFL career. He reaped the benefits of being Washington’s primary receiver leading the entire NFL in targets with 182. Naturally he crushed his career highs for receptions with 113 and receiving yardage with 1,346. Griffin returns and should be healthier, but the receiving group is greatly improved. The team added DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts, who should easily out-produce a declining Santana Moss and Leonard Hankerson. In addition, Jordan Reed returns as a viable tight end target. The abundance of weapons will impact Garcon more than expected and his numbers should fall considerably from a year ago.
Chad Parsons: Pierre Garcon is being drafted as a low-end WR1. DeSean Jackson is added to the mix and Jordan Reed is returning from injury. Like T.Y. Hilton, Garcon had the perfect storm in 2013 with minimal competition for a target windfall. Garcon falls back to WR20-30 status outside of the Washington passing game turning into the 2013 Broncos.
Jeff Pasquino: Pierre Garcon has an immediate threat to his WR1 role in Washington as the team added surprise free agent Desean Jackson. Jackson and Garcon are likely to split targets as the starters, which lowers Garcon’s value from 2013. Garcon led the league with 182 targets last year, the most of any player. That number is certain to go down this year with Jackson starting and tight end Jordan Reed back in action. Even with Garcon’s top target status, he was just barely a Top 12 wide receiver in 2013. With huge downside risk and little upside, I would look elsewhere for a wide receiver value pick.
Kyle Wachtel: Garcon's ridiculous target volume was bound to regress at least a little even with the signing of Andre Roberts. Washington then brought in DeSean Jackson, decreasing Garcon's market share even more. Then, news broke that it would be Jackson, not Garcon, playing flanker, which is where Green played in Cincinnati under new Head Coach, Jay Gruden. All things considered, Garcon may see a drop-off between 20-30 receptions.
Jason Wood: Garcon shed his foot injury and ended up the lone bright spot in Washington’s passing game. He led the NFL in receptions and established himself as a top 15 PPR option. His current ADP is too rich for my blood though because of DeSean Jackson’s presence. Jackson is a more explosive player, and Garcon’s target volume is guaranteed to normalize this year. I don’t dislike Garcon, but I think drafting him as a WR1 is a big mistake.
Player with 4 Votes
Cordarrelle Patterson, Min
Heath Cummings: Patterson is the type of athletic freak that we can often get too excited about too soon. This offense is still going to see a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph in the red zone and there are plenty of questions about the quarterback situation. Patterson’s ceiling is through the roof but he could just as easily get lost in a poor offense.
Stephen Holloway: Cordarrelle Patterson is the extremely talented Viking wide receiver drafted in the first round in 2013. He was excellent as a rookie in the return game and also caught 45 passes for 469 yards and 4 TDs. He should continue to improve as he becomes more familiar and comfortable with the wide receiver position. He had only one season in the SEC after two years in junior college. The Vikings do not have a dominant passing game and will continue to lean on Adrian Peterson. Patterson’s current ADP reflects focus on his future potential more than his anticipated production this season, only his second year in the league.
Jeff Pasquino: I just cannot wrap my head around the expectations for second year wideout Cordarelle Patterson. Minnesota was a train wreck in the passing game last year, and they just drafted yet another quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater in May. So what if Patterson is getting preseason hype? He had just 72 targets and a 45-460-4 stat line as a receiver (with 12-158-0) rushing last season. How can anyone justify drafting him in the fourth or fifth round of fantasy drafts and expecting him to be the next Josh Gordon (in a good way)? This is a classic example of a sleeper getting too much hype and now his price tag is way too inflated.
Kyle Wachtel: Without a doubt, Patterson is an elite playmaker in the NFL. His freakish athleticism has sent him flying up draft boards, but Minnesota will remain a run-first team with Adrian Peterson leading the way, Greg Jennings remains one of the most refined receivers in the NFL, and we are still unsure if the raw Patterson has made strides as a route runner.
Mark Wimer: How is Patterson 19th wide receiver off the board with a track record of 77 targets for 45/469/4 so far in his young career? This seems excessively optimistic, especially given that Kyle Rudolph and Greg Jennings may be recipients of more targets in this offense. Also, Patterson's 10.4 yards-per-reception average doesn't wow me. In leagues where he is getting bonus points or yardage points for returns, yeah, then I can see this guy as a potentially top 20 receiver/returner. In most leagues, though, no way - he's wildly over-rated at his current ADP.
Players with 4 Votes
Michael Crabtree, SF
Sigmund Bloom: Michael Crabtree has the ability to be a fantasy WR1 in the right situation, but the 2014 San Francisco 49ers probably isn’t it. The 49ers could put more on Colin Kaepernick’s plate as a passer this year, but they are still three-deep at wide receiver with the addition of Stevie Johnson and retention of Anquan Boldin, not to mention Vernon Davis. Crabtree had some prodigious chemistry with Kaepernick at the end of 2012, but he was also the only viable receiver.
David Dodds: Too many mouths to feed in an offense that really does not throw the ball that much. And playing against Seattle, St Louis, and Arizona defenses twice a year kills Crabtree's value a lot as well. He is a solid player, but way over-valued right now.
Ryan Hester: When we last saw a healthy Crabtree for a full season, he was finishing as WR16 in a season where he really turned it on late when Colin Kaepernick took over as the team’s starter. Now that he’s healthy again and has Kaepernick for a full season, shouldn’t he be back to that level? Sometimes one plus one does not equal two. San Francisco has added other offensive weapons to the mix, and they play in a division with good defenses. Options like Cordarrelle Patterson, Percy Harvin, Michael Floyd, and Torrey Smith are all being drafted behind him but shouldn’t be.
Andy Hicks: Michael Crabtree had a fantastic 2012 season. That was the year an over the hill Randy Moss was starting opposite him, while Vernon Davis was mainly consigned to blocking. Fast forward to 2014 and Crabtree will have Davis coming off a 13 touchdown season, Anquan Boldin had an 85 catch season, while perhaps even Steve Johnson comes over from Buffalo to add to the distribution.With even more depth added to the running game, there simply will not be enough ball for Michael Crabtree to justify his 4th round price. Add in Crabtree wanting a new contract that the 49ers are very reluctant to give and Crabtree has very little upside and a lot of down at his current price.
Julian Edelman, NE
Adam Harstad: This ranking makes a lot of sense of Edelman is locked in as New England’s slot receiver, but I think Danny Amendola still has too much talent to give up his snaps without a fight for the second consecutive year.
Andy Hicks: Julian Edelman rose to the occasion while all others around him got injured or were rookies. Now they all come back or are now 2nd year receivers. Edelman would need a reoccurrence of last year's disasters to have any hope of being fantasy relevant. The free agent contract was basically a one year extension or a break in case of emergency contract. The Patriots will hope not to need Edelman. That should be caution enough.
Jeff Pasquino: No receiver in New England is going to perform at very high fantasy levels this year. Tom Brady is going to have a pedestrian season (by modern standards, no more than 4,000 yards and about 25 touchdowns), and I predict none of his receivers get 1,000 yards. Only Rob Gronkowski will have significant fantasy value, and all of the wideouts - Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, LaFell - or anyone else they throw out there - will be barely worth a roster spot this season.
Matt Waldman: Tom Brady lost Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, Danny Amendola, and Shane Vereen last year. To make matters worse, the Patriots did the NFL-equivalent of holding America's Got Talent auditions at wide receiver and had to field its rookies much earlier than anticpated. It's no wonder Edelman had over 100 receptions. This isn't a knock on Edelman, but if Gronkowski, Amendola, and Vereen stay healthy -- reasonable "ifs' given their history -- Edelman will be not much more than a fantasy WR3. Heck, if one of the three stays healthy all year and the young receivers take a step forward, Edelman will be overvalued.
Players with 3 Votes
Percy Harvin, Sea
Jeff Haseley: Seattle may eventually evolve into more of a passing team at some point, but right now they are a run-heavy team that had 20 or more completions just three times last year. That's not enough for me to take a relatively high wide receiver pick, especially when there are other wide receivers to choose from that have more upside on a more prolific passing offense. Give me Roddy White, Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald or Michael Floyd over Harvin.
Jeff Pasquino: We all know that Percy Harvin is a big injury risk, but let’s put that aside for now. Seattle just does not throw that often, and Russell Wilson is not asked to carry the team at all. The Seahawks thrive on a smothering defense, a solid run attack and a very big home field advantage. Even if Harvin is healthy and the top receiver on a weekly basis – a big if considering he has missed 22 regular season games the past two years – his upside is capped by a team that only needs 21 points to win most weeks.
Mark Wimer: Harvin has not established chemistry with Russell Wilson yet due to last year's long-running hip injury rehabilitation, and showed little evidence of being Wilson's go-to guy as a receiver during the playoffs. Harvin has never put together a 1,000 yard receiving season in the NFL, and is often dinged up/injured during weeks before games, further limiting his reps with his quarterbacks. Also, Seattle wants to be a run-first offense that puts relatively few passes in the air. Add all this up, and I believe he'll finish well outside the top-20 at his position this year. Even with five targets in the second preseason game, all Harvin could muster was 4/31/0 receiving (7.8 yards per reception) - he is not the "take it to the house" threat that many assert (at least, not as a receiver. As a returner he is excellent, but most leagues don't award yardage for kick returns).
Jeremy Maclin, Phi
Sigmund Bloom: Maclin has had hamstring and knee issues in camp, he’s coming off of a torn ACL, he’s one of six targets in a run-first offense, and he never really had a season where he has put it all together in his career. He could have some fantasy value, but a sixth-round pick is too early for a player who is going to have to share a reception pie about 20 a game with Darren Sproles, LeSean McCoy, Jordan Matthews, Riley Cooper, and Zach Ertz.
Jeff Haseley: DeSean Jackson is now with Washington and the Eagles have a high-flying offense under Chip Kelly. What's not to like about Maclin this year? He is coming off a major knee injury and Chip Kelly recently drafted two young wide outs for a reason. One is Jordan Matthews who should be a major contributor for the Eagles in due time, perhaps as early as this year. The other one is third round pick from Oregon, Josh Huff, who Kelly knows well. In addition to the infusion of younger receivers, Maclin is not in the same league as Michael Crabtree and Torrey Smith or Emmanuel Sanders, who are his neighbors in ADP. His draft position is too high for the projections I have for him this year.
Jason Wood: In five NFL seasons, Jeremy Maclin has never caught more than 70 passes, never had a 1,000-yard season, and finished among the top 25 at his position exactly once (2010). Coming off a torn ACL, Maclin is being asked to fill DeSean Jackson’s enormous shoes, but his style of play is completely different. If Maclin couldn’t deliver big numbers under Andy Reid (whose offenses threw the ball 600+ times routinely), how is he going to break out under Chip Kelly (whose team threw the ball 508 times last year)?
Sammy Watkins, Buf
Heath Cummings: I see a lot of similarities between Watkins and Patterson’s situations. Watkins has plenty of talent but there are too many questions about his situation. The offensive game plan in Buffalo is a mystery and their quarterback needs to take a huge step forward. It’s pretty rare that a rookie receiver justifies Watkins’ ADP and there are too many question marks around him to think that he will.
Matt Harmon: Watkins was an elite wide receiver prospect, so this isn’t slander. The problem is where he ended up going. In Buffalo, Watkins is on a run heavy team with a questionable quarterback situation. E.J. Manuel needs to show he’s a more aggressive and competent player than he was last year. He has not done so yet this preseason. It’s hard to endorse taking Watkins in this at his current seventh round ADP to where he went. Long-term, Watkins is definitely a player to be excited about in dynasty leagues. In re-draft leagues, he’s closer to being irrelevant than a sleeper candidate. Fantasy owners taking him at his current ADP are being completely irresponsible. The chance they’ll get a return on their investment is next to none.
Jeff Haseley: Don't get me wrong, I like what I see from the rookie standout wide receiver, but at the end of the day, I don't see EJ Manuel being able to lift Sammy Watkins to great heights, which is what he needs in order to justify being selected at WR36. If Buffalo had a quarterback who could reach 25+ touchdowns, I'd be more interested in Watkins in redraft this year. The simple truth is, they don't. Plus I also expect Robert Woods, Mike Williams and Marquise Goodwin to also make plays for this team. Let someone else overdraft Watkins, while I select Reggie Wayne, Brandin Cooks or Marques Colston.
Players with 2 Votes
Keenan Allen, SD
Kyle Wachtel: San Diego wants to run the ball. We saw that during the second half, when Philip Rivers' passing attempts and passing yards dropped from 37 and 309 yards in the first half to 31 and 251 respectively. Throw in a healthy Malcom Floyd, who doesn't get enough credit as a deep-threat, it will be tough for Allen to live up to his ADP.
Mark Wimer: Allen is the clear #1 in San Diego, but I think that the Chargers' passing attack will be mediocre this year (I have Philip Rivers at #19 on my quarterbacks' board) so I don't see a top-12 finish for Allen. He'll be solidly in the middle of #2 fantasy wide receivers at the end of 2014, which makes him overvalued at #12 on the wide receiver board.
Aaron Dobson, NE
David Dodds: He is being priced in as if he he is a solid contributor in the offense, but the fact remains he still is not fully practicing after having a screw inserted in his foot in March. Let someone else pull the trigger here. Even if he is healthy enough to play week 1, he is going to need to pass some people on the depth chart to get back on the field.
Matt Waldman: A lot of fantasy owners are pinning hopes on Dobson as the next primary receiver for the Patriots. However Dobson's foot injury, Kenbrell Thompkins continuing to provide quality competition in camp, and the return of Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, and Shane Vereen makes this picture way too cloudy to expect reliable fantasy production from the second-year option from Marshall who dropped as many passes as Thompkins last year, but has somehow earned a pass from fantasy owners.
A.J. Green, Cin
Sigmund Bloom: Green isn’t horribly overvalued in the first round, but you can likely do better. Wide receiver is just too deep to invest a premium pick in Green when similar production could be available in the third or fourth round at the position. The offense will be more balanced under new OC Hue Jackson, and Andy Dalton is still Green’s quarterback. Green has been in the top five in targets each of the last two years. Even a small downtick in targets will pull Green back to a very strong pack of WR1s and WR2s.
Kyle Wachtel: Green is an elite receiver and has performed as an elite fantasy receiver the past two seasons. Unfortunately for Green and the rest of Cincinnati's receiving corps, Hue Jackson plans to put a governor on the passing offense and win games via the running game. A dip in passing volume caps Green's value in comparison to the other elite fantasy receivers.
Emmanuel Sanders, Den
Heath Cummings: Sanders is coming off his career year that resulted in him finishing as WR35 as the second option for the Steelers. In Denver he’s at best the fourth option and should see his touchdown rate fall back to where it was before 2013. His best chance to reach his ADP is another injury to Wes Welker. Without that he may be fighting for his job by midseason.
Stephen Holloway: Emmanuel Sanders signed a three-year $15 Million contract with the Broncos during the off season after playing for the Steelers for his first four years in the NFL. He had a career year in 2013, catching 67 passes for 740 yards and 6 TDs. However his move to Denver will likely shift him to fourth in the pecking order behind Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Julius Thomas. The Broncos defense should be improved and the team might also be a little more focused on developing consistency in the running game this year. In addition, the Broncos drafted Cody Lattimer in the second round so Sanders may even have competition as the fourth target. Sanders may not have as many targets as he got last year and his ADP is based on expectations of getting more targets in the Broncos high powered attack.
Wes Welker, Den
Matt Waldman: Cecil Lammey says that Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer will be part of three-receiver sets more often than Welker this year. I'll still be drafting Welker if he drops close enough to his value, but I'm not considering the aging veteran a low-end WR1 in PPR leagues anymore. ADP suggests some fantasy owners still see that upside.
Jason Wood: Welker’s role diminished as the 2013 season wore on, and the Broncos added two younger and more well-rounded receivers in Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer. With Demaryius Thomas’ spot at the top and Julius Thomas’ role as the key mismatch, I don’t think Welker projects as a consistent 8-10 catch receiver in Denver the way he was in New England. Right now fantasy owners are drafting Welker ahead of Sanders, I see that as a mistake and would pass on Welker and grab Sanders – who will outperform him – a few rounds later.
Players with 1 Vote
Tavon Austin, StL
Ari Ingel: Austin has done nothing to warrant his current ADP. He is talented and an extremely elusive player in the open field, but I’m not sure he would have even been a 1st round draft pick this year. He is currently manning the slot while Kenny Britt and Brian Quick start on the outside, but I have no faith in OC Schottenheimer and his ability to get the ball in Austin’s hands. According to multiple reports, including Tory Holt, Austin is having a quiet camp. Until the team decides to bail on Schottenheimer, Austin will be too tough to rely on. Right now he’s more Dexter McCluster than DeSean Jackson and it would not be surprising for fellow second year receiver Stedman Bailey to start over him when he returns from his suspension.
Antonio Brown, Pit
Ryan Hester: Expecting Brown to increase his production from 2013 could be a fool’s errand. While he’s the clear top target in Pittsburgh, his touchdown total seems likely to regress. Brown isn’t an accomplished red zone receiver. In fact, of his eight scores last season, only one came from inside the 20 (and that didn’t happen until Week 15). Brown is a big play receiver, but an average touchdown length of over 32 yards is hard to duplicate – especially over more than a handful of touchdowns. If you draft Brown at WR8, you’re drafting him close to his ceiling.
Mike Evans, TB
Jason Wood: Evans was the consensus #2 receiving prospect behind Sammy Watkins this year, and his ADP (WR38) isn’t particularly aggressive. Yet, I would advise caution because the Buccaneers offense has a lot of questions. Jeff Tedford hasn’t called NFL plays before, and veteran Josh McCown parlayed an outlier season in Chicago into a multi-year deal to start in Tampa Bay. The problem with that is McCown is a journeyman who has played for five NFL teams (Tampa is #6) and been a subpar player at every stop outside of last year’s run in Chicago. If Tampa’s offense is as moribund as I expect it to be, Evans will struggle to be worth rostering in redraft leagues.
T.Y. Hilton, Ind
Ari Ingel: As a real life player, I love Hilton, but as an early 5th round pick in Fantasy, he’s just too inconsistent on a week-to-week basis at his current ADP. He was feast or famine all last season, with unfortunately more down games than up. And this year should be no different; especially with a healthy Dwayne Allen and Reggie Wayne and the addition of former first round pick Hakeem Nicks and intriguing rookie Donte Moncrief. While Nicks has had a slow camp, he certainly could turn things on once the season starts. While Hilton can explode at any time, he’s better off being your WR3 or bye week replacement.
Vincent Jackson, TB
Matt Waldman: Josh McCown has a lights-out year in Chicago. I'm skeptical he'll replicate this in Tampa Bay. I admire the Buccaneers' attempt to replicate lightning in a bottle, but there's a difference in skill sets and talent between Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery and Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. Marshall and Jeffery are better route runners with a more versatile route tree than Jackson. Evans also needs a year to transition. So does Austin Seferian-Jenkins. I see promising things for this offense, but I don't see it clicking on the level of the Bears last year. Also keep in mind that McCown didn't get to take the Bears' offensive line with him to Ybor City.
Alshon Jeffery, Chi
Mark Wimer: Jeffery had a great season last year, but I think Brandon Marshall remains Jay Cutlers' most trusted target. I expect a significant regression from Jeffery during 2014 - he's still a viable fantasy receiver, but I think you won't get top-ten or even top-twenty numbers from him duing 2014, making him vastly overvalued at eighth wide receiver drafted. Pick another stud with a longer track record as your #1 wide receiver.
Andre Johnson, Hou
Jeff Haseley: There's a possibility that Houston could an offensive dumpster fire this year. It's not so much Johnson's talent and ability, but more the lack of success as an offensive in general. They have a new first time head coach in Bill O'Brien, so the offense will be different from the start. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a decent at best quarterback and the depth chart below him is even worse. My stance is to let someone else take a chance on the aging veteran receiver. In my opinion, he is one to avoid at his current ADP of WR11.
James Jones, Oak
Ryan Hester: Jones’ status as a free agent acquisition might suggest that Oakland plans to make him a regular part of the offense. However, Jones has never been a high-volume player, so expecting him to be a PPR asset is a tough ask. Matt Schaub also put forth a pretty bad performance in the latest preseason game. Between Schaub and rookie Derek Carr, no Oakland pass-catcher has prospects that look good.
Rueben Randle, NYG
Sigmund Bloom: There has been a lot of excuse-making on behalf of Randle after he struggled in his first two years, being responsible for a plethora of interceptions due to miscommunication and execution. The new offense should set him up with simpler duties on more quick hitter that set up his run after catch ability, but Randle isn’t deserving of a pick over similarly situated young receivers who haven’t disappointed us with underperformance yet in their careers.
Golden Tate, Det
Ryan Hester: While Tate may be the best player Detroit has had opposite Calvin Johnson, that doesn’t mean he’s a lock for solid fantasy production. Tate has been an inconsistent player throughout his career, and while receiving one-on-one coverage opposite Johnson will help to get him more regular looks, he isn’t a high-value fantasy asset. Tate is his team’s fourth option at best (if rushing the ball is included in that list) in red zone situations. He is by no means a player from who more than five touchdowns should be expected.
Roddy White, Atl
Andy Hicks: Roddy White was one of, if not the most reliable of fantasy football receivers since 2007. That was until last year. 6 consecutive top 14 fantasy finishes all came to an end with the Falcons imploding following injuries and loss of form to key personnel. Sure White may have played injured, but he also will turn 33 this year and see Julio Jones return. The presence of last year's 1000 yard receiver Harry Douglas and a better running game from the 32nd ranked running team in 2013 all point to not enough fantasy points for any receiver not named Julio Jones, especially when you’ll be paying a 4th or 5th round pick for White. For similar production go with Harry Douglas in amongst the kickers and defenses.
Kendall Wright, Ten
Andy Hicks: Kendall Wright will be much more useful to the Tennessee Titans than your fantasy squad. He is a typical possession receiver who becomes invisible once the ball goes into the end zone. His yards per catch is extremely low and the Titans will be hoping for Justin Hunter to emerge as the legitimate WR1 the team needs. Wright will be useful in PPR leagues, but with his record of 6 touchdowns on 243 targets in 2 years, he becomes almost a liability in most other leagues. At his current price he has practically no upside and can only disappoint. There will be plenty of wide receivers in the 6th round who have a much higher upside, but if you want to play it safe and draft Wright you are putting yourself at an early disadvantage.