The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Michael Crabtree
Sigmund Bloom: Crabtree should be fully healthy after a 2013 achilles tear, but he will now have to share with a second quality veteran wide receiver, in addition to the freakishly talented tight end on the 49ers roster, in a passing game that is not meant to do the heavy lifitng for the offense. He might have a few big games and solid year-end numbers, but there just isn’t enough to go around in the air in San Francisco to make Crabtree worthy of a top 50 pick.
David Dodds: Too many mouths to feed in an offense that really does not throw the ball that much. And playing against Seattle, St Louis, and Arizona defenses twice a year kills Crabtree's value a lot as well. He is a solid player, but way over-valued right now.
Bob Henry: I’m a big fan of Michael Crabtree, but there is no way I could draft him as a mid-level WR2 with so many mouths to free around him. Crabtree performed admirably well last year after returning from a torn Achilles, but I view him as a player I’d rather draft as my WR3 than someone I’d like to pencil in week to week as a WR2 on a run-first team with strong options like Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis and even Stevie Johnson competing with him for targets. At his best, Crabtree finished as WR14 in 2012, but that was before Boldin became a 49er. If Crabtree falls into the WR30s, he’s a solid pick, but don’t reach for him earlier anticipating him to perform up to his peak levels of production two years ago.
Andy Hicks: Michael Crabtree had a fantastic 2012 season. That was the year an over the hill Randy Moss was starting opposite him, while Vernon Davis was mainly consigned to blocking. Fast forward to 2014 and Crabtree will have Davis coming off a 13 touchdown season, AnquanBoldinhad an 85 catch season, while Steve Johnson comes over from Buffalo. With even more depth added to the running game, there simply will not be enough ball for Michael Crabtree to justify his 4th round price. Add in Crabtree wanting a new contract that the 49ers are very reluctant to give and Crabtree has very little upside and a lot of down at his current price.
Matt Waldman: The only season Crabtree has been a top-15 fantasy receiver was 2012. Some make a good point that Crabtree’s five appearances in 2013 after an Achilles’ tear would have put him on pace for a similar season. While possible, I have my doubts about the distribution of targets favoring Crabtree as much as past seasons. The reasons for this include Anquan Boldin, Steve Johnson, and Brandon Lloyd. None of these players are part-time receivers along the lines of 2012’s Randy Moss. Although Boldin’s age and Johnson’s nagging leg injuries of year’s past could easily torpedo this argument, I anticipate that if these two players stay healthy that Crabtree’s targets and red zone chances will have a ceiling that’s more akin to WR3 fantasy production and not mid-range WR2 as this list suggests.
Jason Wood: The 49ers don’t throw the ball enough to support elite fantasy numbers from multiple receivers. Even if Michael Crabtree stays healthy and is the de facto #1 on the team, there’s no way the 49ers are going to keep AnquanBoldin (WR15 in 2013), Steve Johnson and Vernon Davis from making plays. San Francisco is positioned for a great season because of depth, and yet fantasy owners are acting as though Michael Crabtree will be over targeted by Colin Kaepernick. That’s not likely.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Jeremy Maclin, Phi
Sigmund Bloom: Our Kyle Wachtel put it well when he posited that the Eagles could have five (or more) players with over 40 catches, but fewer than 60. Maclin is one of that group, but he’s the most expensive (outside of LeSean McCoy). Maclin doesn’t offer the downfield playmaking appeal of Riley Cooper or the unknown rookie upside of Jordan Matthews, yet he is still going well before both of them. The Eagles passing game will be efficient, but it won’t create the volume of a top-end air attack, so if you invest, make it a late-round pick, not a seventh on Maclin.
Jeff Haseley: DeSean Jackson is now with Washington and the Eagles have a high-flying offense under Chip Kelly. What's not to like about Maclin this year? He is coming off a major knee injury and Chip Kelly recently drafted two young wide outs for a reason. One is Jordan Matthews who should be a major contributor for the Eagles in due time, perhaps as early as this year. The other one is third round pick from Oregon, Josh Huff, who Kelly knows well. In addition to the infusion of younger receivers, Maclin is not in the same league as Kendall Wright, Eric Decker or Mike Wallace, who are his neighbors in ADP. His draft position is too high for the projections I have for him this year.
Kyle Wachtel: The excitement of him filling DeSean Jackson's shoes seems to have held strong. However, there are just too many weapons for the Eagles and the team can be expected to distribute the ball fairly enough that individual volume and consistency will be tough to come by.
Matt Waldman: Other than a 10-touchdown season in 2010 where he was the No.13 fantasy receiver, Maclin has been more a third wide receiver in a fantasy lineup. He’s not a fully dimensional route runner and a lot of his work—save the corner route—are routes where the hope is for Maclin to earn yards after the catch. Maclin is returning from an ACL tear to an offense that has more versatile weaponry competing for targets. If I could have added Riley Cooper to my list of underrated options, I would have placed him higher than Maclin’s No.28 spot. If I could get Maclin in the 10th round or later, I’d take the chance, but give me Watkins, Sanders, and Tate as safer bets—all drafted after Maclin at this point.
Jason Wood: In five NFL seasons, Jeremy Maclin has never caught more than 70 passes, never had a 1,000-yard season, and finished among the top 25 at his position exactly once (2010). Coming off a torn ACL, Maclin is being asked to fill DeSean Jackson’s enormous shoes, but his style of play is completely different. If Maclin couldn’t deliver big numbers under Andy Reid (whose offenses threw the ball 600+ times routinely), how is he going to break out under Chip Kelly(whose team threw the ball 508 times last year)?
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Percy Harvin, Sea
Jeff Haseley: Seattle may eventually evolve into more of a passing team at some point, but right now they are a run-heavy team that had 20 or more completions just three times last year. That's not enough for me to take a relatively high wide receiver pick, especially when there are other wide receivers to choose from that have more upside on a more prolific passing offense.
Andy Hicks: Percy Harvin was great in Minnesota, but his last appearance for them was in November 2012. Since then he has primarily been the focus of the injury report. He also is now with the Seattle Seahawks and his guest appearances last year resulted in 5 receptions for 43 yards and 53 rushing yards from 3 games. The fact that he still commands a 4th round pick means that you’d be best to look elsewhere. Sure he could bounce back to Minnesota form circa 2011, but Seattle is a different outfit and won’t rely on Harvin to the extent the Vikings did, if he stays fit. Less ball, injury worries and a 4th round pick aren’t a good mix.
Jeff Pasquino: We all know that Percy Harvin is a big injury risk, but let’s put that aside for now. Seattle just does not throw that often, and Russell Wilson is not asked to carry the team at all. The Seahawks thrive on a smothering defense, a solid run attack and a very big home field advantage. Even if Harvin is healthy and the top receiver on a weekly basis – a big if considering he has missed 22 regular season games the past two years – his upside is capped by a team that only needs 21 points to win most weeks.
Mark Wimer: Harvin has not established chemistry with Russell Wilson yet due to last year's long-running hip injury rehabilitation, and showed little evidence of being Wilson's go-to guy as a receiver during the playoffs. Harvin has never put together a 1,000 yard receiving season in the NFL, and is often dinged up/injured during weeks before games, further limiting his reps with his quarterbacks. Also, Seattle is a run-first offense that puts relatively few passes in the air. Add all this up, and I believe he'll finish outside the top-20 at his position this year.
Cordarelle Patterson, Min
Heath Cummings: Patterson is a physical freak that was still extremely raw the last time we saw him. Even if Teddy Bridgewater wins the starting job I still think Patterson's breakout is a year away. I'd expect a small number of elite weekly performances coupled with several weeks where he simply disappears. I'm just not excited about drafting a developing receiver that (best case) is going to be working with a developing quarterback. Worst case is that Patterson struggles through another year of bad quarterback play an Bridgewater proves not to be the answer.
Steve Holloway: Cordarrelle Patterson is the extremely talented Viking wide receiver drafted in the first round in 2013. He was excellent as a rookie in the return game and also caught 45 passes for 469 yards and 4 TDs. He should improve as he becomes more familiar and comfortable with the wide receiver position since he had only one season in the SEC after two years in junior college. His current ADP reflects focus on Patterson’s future potential more than his anticipated production this season, only his second year in the league.
Jeff Pasquino: I just cannot wrap my head around the expectations for second year wideout Cordarelle Patterson. Minnesota was a train wreck in the passing game last year, and they just drafted yet another quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater in May. So what if Patterson is getting preseason hype? He had just 72 targets and a 45-460-4 stat line as a receiver (with 12-158-0) rushing last season. How can anyone justify drafting him in the fourth or fifth round of fantasy drafts and expecting him to be the next Josh Gordon (in a good way)? This is a classic example of a sleeper getting too much hype and now his price tag is way too inflated.
Kyle Wachtel: He boasts terrific measureables with sky-high potential. However, Greg Jennings is the more refined receiver and Patterson's current price tag is as if he's already broken out, leaving no room for disappointment.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Pierre Garcon, Was
Adam Harstad: Garcon received an eye-popping 181 targets last season, the 4th-highest total of the last decade. With Desean Jackson in town and Jordan Reed back on the field, there’s no way he’s repeating that number, which means his total production is primed to fall hard.
Steve Holloway: Pierre Garcon played in every game last year for only the second time in his six-year NFL career. He reaped the benefits of being Washington’s primary receiver leading the entire NFL in targets with 182. Naturally he crushed his career highs for receptions with 113 and receiving yardage with 1,346. Griffin returns and should be healthier, but the receiving corps is greatly improved. The team added DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts, who should easily produce better than a declining Santana Moss or Leonard Hankerson and those two are still on the team providing depth. In addition, Jordan Reed returns as a viable tight end target. The abundance of weapons will impact Garcon more than expected and his numbers should fall considerably from a year ago.
Jeff Pasquino: Pierre Garcon has an immediate threat to his WR1 role in Washington as the team added surprise free agent Desean Jackson. Jackson and Garcon are likely to split targets as the starters, which lowers Garcon’s value from 2013. Garcon led the league with 182 targets last year, the most of any player. That number is certain to go down this year with Jackson starting and tight end Jordan Reed back in action. Even with Garcon’s top target status, he was just barely a Top 12 wide receiver in 2013. With huge downside risk and little upside, I would look elsewhere for a wide receiver value pick.
Josh Gordon, Cle
David Dodds: We won't know until the NFL states the facts, but the word on the street is Gordon will be missing all year. I would not draft him right now at all. If the uncertainty clears (and he gets to play some games), his ADP should fall more in line with things. Right now, he is being drafted as a lottery pick that could pay dividends if by some miracle he does not miss the whole year.
Jeff Pasquino: There is some sleeper appeal to Gordon, but only if he is suspended for just eight games or fewer. Stashing Gordon with a late draft pick and hoping that he can help your team in November and December might seem like a good idea, but I would not even consider taking him before about 50 other wide receivers are off of the draft board. Right now his ADP puts him in the eighth round, which is far too early for me.
Jeff Tefertiller: Even though there is a slight chance he plays this season, Josh Gordon should not be drafted at his stated ADP. If he is to be acquired, it should be with the last round of the draft. If not suspended, Gordon would be a Top 10 pick. Now, we are left to talk about what could have been.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Keenan Allen, SD
Heath Cummings: Allen is one of the rare receivers that may have shown his best work in his rookie campaign. He's not an elite athlete and he snuck up on some people last year. I don't see him as the type of receiver that can succeed when he's the focus of the other team's secondary, and that's exactly what he should be this year. San Diego is an offense that I expect to regress in 2014, and that won't help Allen out at all. He may have a season that was better than his rookie year, but I don't expect it to be in 2014.
Mark Wimer: Allen is the clear #1 in San Diego, but I think that the Chargers' passing attack will be mediocre this year (I have Philip Rivers at #20 on my quarterbacks' board) so I don't see a top-12 finish for Allen. He'll be solidly in the middle of #2 fantasy wide receivers at the end of 2014, which makes him overvalued at #12 on the wide receiver board.
Larry Fitzgerald, Ari
Heath Cummings: When the season starts Larry Fitzgerald is going to be a 31-year-old receiver that hasn't posted a WR1 season since 2011. It's a shame that he has been cursed with such bad quarterback play since Kurt Warner left, but his talent is not great enough to equalize his situation. There' s really no reason to expect Carson Palmer to better than he was last year, assuming Palmer can make it through a 16 game schedule healthy. Fitzgerald is a transcendent talent that has been wasted over much of the second half of his career because of the quarterbacks he's played with. I expect Michael Floyd to surpass him in 2014 and beyond.
Ryan Hester: A case can still be made that Fitzgerald still has the best technique and fundamentals of any receiver in the NFL. However, he is aging and being used in different ways in Arizona’s offense guided by Head Coach Bruce Arians. Fitzgerald is being used more like former Arians receivers Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne. He’s being moved all around the field, including the slot, and working the short-to-intermediate ranges to provide his quarterback with a safe, reliable option. Michael Floyd is the receiver being used as the deep threat and thereby getting more high-value targets. Fitzgerald will be solid but not spectacular for fantasy purposes this season – not the ideal description of a player being drafted 14th at his position. Floyd is the more likely candidate on Arizona’s roster finish 14th or higher among receivers.
T.Y. Hilton, Ind
Bob Henry: Hilton is an unfortunate example of a player whose talent I truly love, but whose opportunity and role have me nervous and even perplexed. I don’t trust the Colts coaching staff to use him in a manner that befits his talents. The Colts have more mouths to feed than ever with Reggie Wayne and Dwayne returning from injury and the free agent signing of Hakeem Nicks. Hilton has explosive, big play ability after the catch, but his targets might be inconsistent from week to week and it’s unclear how the Colts offense will look with two quality tight ends and Nicks. Hilton might not be on the field as much and Nicks seems better suited for an outside starting spot opposite Wayne. I trust Hilton’s talent but I don’t trust the Colts to get him the ball as often as I’d like to see to be comfortable drafting him at his current ADP of WR23.
Chad Parsons: Hilton had ideal circumstances in 2013 as he broke out with 1,083 yards and a top-20 receiver finish. Now, Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen are returning from injury, Hakeem Nicks was signed, and DaRick Rogers gets a full offseason with the team. Hilton is likely to see a bump up from his 13.2 yards-per-reception last season and an efficiency boost, but his volume will sag due to more weapons in the offense.
Julio Jones, Atl
Cian Fahey: As talented as Julio Jones is, he is coming off a seemingly significant foot injury and he will be playing in an offense that has lost Tony Gonzalez. With Roddy White entering the twilight of his career, Jones will likely see more attention in 2014 than he has at any other point in his career. Jones should be productive, but asking him to be a top six receiver while playing in a division where two of the three opposing defenses have dramatically improved may be a stretch.
Jason Wood: Julio Jones is a top 10 fantasy receiver if 100% healthy. But right now he’s overvalued because you have to draft him in the middle of the second round while a host of healthy receivers all but assured of big numbers are still on the board. Remember Jones’ injury isn’t the kind to give the benefit of the doubt. He broke the same bone (in different spots) on the same foot in back-to-back seasons, and yet fantasy owners seem comfortable that he’ll be fine this year. If Jones makes it back onto the practice field by early August, I’ll reconsider my caution but for now there’s no way you should pay a 2nd round price for him.
Emmanuel Sanders, Den
Heath Cummings: Sanders move to Denver is a polarizing one to say the least. On the one hand, Sanders is moving into one of the best offenses of all-time to catch passes from one of the best quarterbacks of all-time. On the other hand, we're talking about a receiver that has never topped 100 yards in a game and was barely as WR3 last year in Pittsburgh when he was the number 2 option. I expect Sanders to fall behind Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Julius Thomas in the pecking order...and I'm not so sure he won't be behind Cody Latimer by the end of the year. Sanders would have been a nice addition to fill the shoes of Welker, but with Welker still there it's hard for me to see where Sanders fits in.
Steve Holloway: Emmanuel Sanders signed a three-year $15 million contract with the Broncos during the off season after playing for the Steelers for his first four years in the NFL. He had a career year in 2013, catching 67 passes for 740 yards and 6 TDs. However his move to Denver may shift him to fourth in the pecking order behind Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Julius Thomas. The Broncos also may be a little more focused on developing consistency in the running game this year. In addition, the Broncos drafted Cody Lattimer in the second round so Sanders may even have competition as the fourth target. Sanders may not have as many targets as he got last year and his ADP is based on expectations of getting more targets in the Broncos high powered attack.
Sammy Watkins, Buf
Alex Miglio: Sammy Watkins was the first receiver taken in the draft, and he was thrust into a promising position in the fantasy realm. The Bills gave up a future first-rounder for the right to draft Watkins, a dynamic receiver.
The problem? The Bills don’t exactly have a balefire offense, for one. EJ Manuel had a fine rookie season, but let’s not pretend he’s the second coming of Dan Marino. Watkins takes over for Steve Johnson, who left after posting just 52 catches for 597 yards and three touchdowns, though he only played in 12 games.
Rookies are notoriously volatile fantasy scorers, usually more name than substance. Watkins is a dynamic player capable of making noise sooner than later, but—at 6’1”—he might be short on touchdowns, the lifeblood of successful fantasy owners.
Jeff Tefertiller: Rookie Sammy Watkins is a gifted receiver. He could lead the Buffalo Bills in receiving. But, there is no possible way he performs to a level equal to a mid-seventh round draft pick. It is amazing the Watkins is being drafted ahead of solid performers like Marques Colston and Dwayne Bowe. The Buffalo passing game will not be potent enough for a a rookie receiver to meet expectations.
Wes Welker, Den
Sigmund Bloom: Welker is being drafted like he’s 2004 Brandon Stokley, but he turned into 2005 Stokley halfway through the 2013 season. Welker only had two scores from Week 10 on, and he missed extended time with a ever-extending history of concussions. Eric Decker is gone, but Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer have been added, which could relegate Welker to a less central role in the Broncos potent passing game. Welker was already barely WR3/Flex worthy in the second half and playoffs of 2013 and his arrow is pointing down.
James Brimacombe: Welker looked tired at the end of last season and the fact that the Broncos brought in Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer tells me they are looking for that burst and to stay fresh down their stretch playoff run. Denver also has a running game that is looking to get going with Montee Ball coming into year 2, and with both Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas demanding targets it is going to be hard for Welker to continue his success in the PPR world. I am anticipating a major drop in production for Welker this year and will not overspend to have him on any of my teams.
Kendall Wright, Ten
Sigmund Bloom: Wright racked up catches with Ryan Fitzpatrick last year, but he still didn’t flash playmaking ability that would merit the first round pick the Titans spent on him or the 6th/7th round pick he’s fetching in redraft leagues right now. Wright had little red zone presence. Wright only has WR3/Flex appeal in PPR leagues, and even that is shaky with Jake Locker at quarterback and Justin Hunter possibly coming on to become the team’s #1 receiver in his second year.
Andy Hicks: Kendall Wright will be much more useful to the Tennessee Titans than your fantasy squad. He is a typical possession receiver who becomes invisible once the ball goes into the end zone. His yards per catch is extremely low and the Titans will be hoping for Justin Hunter to emerge as the legitimate WR1 the team needs. Wright will be useful in PPR leagues, but with his record of 6 touchdowns on 243 targets in 2 years, he becomes almost a liability in most other leagues. At his current price he has practically no upside and can only disappoint. There will be plenty of wide receivers in the 6th round who have a much higher upside, but if you want to play it safe and draft Wright you are putting yourself at an early disadvantage.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Danny Amendola, NE
Matt Waldman: There are very few players whose health is enough of an issue that I don’t trust drafting them. Amendola has played 12 games in a season once in three years. He’ll help someone’s team that has a good combination of depth to withstand potential injury, but I don’t want that lineup headache on my roster.
Tavon Austin, StL
Alex Miglio: If Tavon Austin was playing in Denver or New Orleans with Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, I might be buying his stock. In St. Louis with Sam Bradford at the helm, however, the 5’8”, 175-pound speedster doesn’t jump out as a value of any sort, even in PPR leagues. Austin was underutilized in his rookie season until late in the year, but the man the Rams moved up to take at No. 8 was a disappointment nonetheless. Outside a couple of big plays, didn’t do much, catching just 40 balls for 418 yards and four touchdowns. He could very well double his reception and yardage count, but Austin will always suffer from a lack of size when it comes to scoring touchdowns.
Kelvin Benjamin, Car
David Dodds: The team needs him to contribute right away, but he looks way too raw to me to find much success this season. Opportunity is a big component to fantasy success, but Kelvin needs some time to really grow into the starting job. His ADP suggests he will start in week 1. I am not convinced that is the case just yet.
Jarrett Boykin, GB
Matt Waldman: The former Virginia Tech Hokie played well enough as an injury fill-in for Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson last year that the Packers had no qualms about letting James Jones walk. However, I wouldn’t buy into that statement as a long-term view of Boykin’s potential. The fact that Green Bay drafted three receivers in May is a more telling statement that they aren’t sold on the third-year player as a starter. If rookie tight end Colt Lyerla plays to his potential, Boykin will be the fourth option, at best in this offense.
Randall Cobb, GB
Steve Holloway: Randall Cobb took advantage of opportunities in 2012 as Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson both missed games and were slowed by injuries. Cobb posted a career high 112 targets with 80 receptions for 954 yards and scored 8 TDs. Last season was billed as Cobb’s coming out party, but he broke his tibia in week 6 and did not return until the last regular season game. He has been a reliable and effective slot receiver for the Packers, averaging 13.0 ypc and scoring 13 TDs on 136 receptions. Cobb and Jordy Nelson will compete to be Aaron Rodgers’ top target this year, but the Packers also have Jarrett Boykin and this year’s 2nd round rookie Davante Adams. The improved running game and the abundance of receivers could keep Cobb from matching expectations this year.
Julian Edelman, NE
Adam Harstad: This ranking makes a lot of sense of Edelman is locked in as New England’s slot receiver, but I think Danny Amendola still has too much talent to give up his snaps without a fight for the second consecutive year.
Mike Evans, TB
Jason Wood: Evans was the consensus #2 receiving prospect behind Sammy Watkins this year, and his ADP (WR36) isn’t particularly aggressive. Yet, I would advise caution because the Buccaneers offense has a lot of questions. Jeff Tedford hasn’t called NFL plays before, and veteran Josh McCown parlayed an outlier season in Chicago into a multi-year deal to start in Tampa Bay. The problem with that is McCown is a journeyman that’s played for five NFL teams (Tampa is #6) and been a subpar player at every stop outside of last year’s run in Chicago. If Tampa’s offense is as moribund as I expect it to be, Evans will struggle to be worth rostering in redraft leagues.
Julian Edelman, NE
Bob Henry: I have a strong feeling that we’ve seen the best that Edelman will ever give us last year. It was a perfect combination of injuries, opportunity and Edelman taking advantage of both. He remains a good receiver with undervalued skills, but with Rob Gronkowski returning, Shane Vereen’s receiving prowess, Danny Amendola healthy again (for now), expected improvement out of Aaron Dobson and the additions of Brandon LaFell and rookie Jeremy Gallon, the competition for targets is far different than the environment in which Edelman thrived in the second half of 2013. An ADP in the WR2/WR3 range is far too steep for me to consider Edelman when there are better options like Michael Floyd, Roddy White, Kendall Wright, Mike Wallace or Marques Colston available in that vicinity.
A.J. Green, Cin
Ryan Hester: This isn’t an indictment on Green as a top-10 fantasy receiver. It’s simply saying that in the top-five range, there are better options. Green is still an elite talent, but the offensive coordinator change from the pass-happy Jay Gruden to the run-oriented Hue Jackson is concerning. While he still may end up a top-five option at the position, I view that as his ceiling. Conversely, I view all other receivers being selected in the top-seven as having a ceiling of fantasy’s top overall receiver.
DeSean Jackson, Was
Chad Parsons: Jackson goes from the clear first option in Philadelphia to a committee of Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed in Washington. Andre Roberts is also a solid receiving option. Jackson will be hard-pressed to repeat his 126 targets from a year ago and is coming off a career-high 1,332 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Deep threats are streaky at best and Jackson has a better chance of logging five or fewer touchdowns than double-digits with more competition for targets.
Alshon Jeffery, Chi
Mark Wimer: Jeffery had a great season last year, but I think Brandon Marshall remains Jay Cutlers' most trusted target. I expect a significant regression from Jeffery during 2014 - he's still a viable fantasy receiver, but I think you won't get top-ten or even top-twenty numbers from him duing 2014, making him vastly overvalued at seventh wide receiver drafted. Pick another stud with a longer track record as your #1 wide receiver.
Jordy Nelson, GB
Mark Wimer: Nelson is a solid NFL player, but there are a lot of quality targets to feed the football to in Green Bay - and Aaron Rodgers tends to spread the ball around widely, rather than focus on one or two prime receivers (as we saw happen with Brandon Marshall and Alson Jeffery in Chicago last season). The otherworldly talent of Nelson's quarterback limits Nelson's ceiling in the fantasy space. Also, this year I think Randall Cobb becomes the clear #1 wide receiver in Green Bay, so Nelson will have an even smaller share of the pie than he did in years past. I don't see a top-ten finish in the cards for Nelson this year.
Torrey Smith, Bal
Bob Henry: I have a feeling that Smith's numbers have peaked in terms of targets after being just about the only worthy target in Baltimore last year. Add Steve Smith, Owen Daniels and a healthy Dennis Pitta into the mix, and he might have more quality targets, but fewer targets overall. I like him a lot as a solid WR3, but I don’t feel comfortable taking him among the top 24 WRs, even though he should benefit from having more weapons around him to keep defenses honest. He remains an excellent big play receiver with breakout potential any given week, but I won’t consider taking him unless he’s available as my third receiver.
Mike Wallace, Mia
Ryan Hester: Many expect a bounce-back year for Wallace after a disappointing debut campaign in Miami. There have even been reports that Wallace has been moving all over the field. While those reports have encouraged some, Wallace’s strength was never versatility. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Wallace was truly elite at one thing and generally average at many others. His one elite talent – running deep behind defenses – didn’t line up with Ryan Tannehill’s strengths, and moving around the formation isn’t going to change the fact that Tannehill isn’t a strong deep ball passer.
Roddy White, Atl
Andy Hicks: Roddy White was one of, if not the most reliable fantasy football receiver since 2007. That was until last year. 6 consecutive top 14 fantasy finishes all came to an end with the Falcons imploding following injuries and loss of form to key personnel. Sure White may have played injured, but he also will turn 33 this year and see Julio Jones return. The presence of last years 1000 yard receiver Harry Douglas and a better running game from the 32nd ranked running team in 2013 all point to not enough fantasy points for any receiver not named Julio Jones, especially when you’ll be paying a 5th round pick for White. For similar production go with Harry Douglas in amongst the kickers and defenses.