The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player with 12 Votes
Vernon Davis, SF
Sigmund Bloom: Davis has to share with the best set of three receivers the 49ers have had in a long way, and he was already scarily touchdown-dependent last year. If Davis continues to be the apple of Colin Kaepernick’s eye in the red zone, he might deliver some very strong individual games, but the threat of a one of two (or even zero) catch game always looms with Davis, and that can cost you a week. The 49ers have been content in the past to let Davis languish as a receiver, and that should cause you to stay far away in the 5th or 6th round.
Heath Cummings: Davis was outstanding last year when the 49ers only had one other target to throw to. Now they’ve added Michael Crabtree back in the mix and his targets are likely to drop. Even more likely to drop are his 13 touchdowns from 2013, and that’s what really carried him to his TE3 finish. Davis will be a mid-range to low-end TE1 but there are plenty of those available much later in the draft.
David Dodds: The 49ers have a LOT more passing options this year including Steve Johnson and a healthy Michael Crabtree. This team is also stacked to run the ball a LOT this year. I just don't see enough targets to justify Davis as an elite producer.
Matt Harmon: A guy with 13 touchdowns last season is overvalued? Yes, that’s right. Vernon Davis was a big part of the 49ers offense because he was the only option outside of AnquanBoldin. When Michael Crabtree returned, the offense and Colin Kaepernick gradually began to ignore Davis. With even more wide receivers added to compete for target, and Crabtree set to play a full season, it isn’t going to get better. Expect Davis to regress in all statistical categories, especially his touchdowns. 13 scores are always hard to replicate, and Davis will be hard pressed to reach that number again. Avoid Davis at all cost at his current fifth round asking price. Its one of the worst investments you could make this season.
Adam Harstad: San Francisco loves to run the ball, and loves to keep Vernon Davis in as a blocker when they do. Davis had a fantastic season last year when he and Boldin were the only viable options in the passing game, but with Crabtree back healthy and newcomer Stevie Johnson in the mix, I fear Davis will spend far more of his time with his hands grabbing opposing players than footballs.
Jeff Haseley: There are several reasons why I don't like Vernon Davis as the fifth tight end off the board. The 49ers are a run-heavy team and to back that up, they drafted another high pick on a running back (Carlos Hyde) after taking a gamble on Marcus Lattimore the year prior. They don't pass the ball often and they added another wide receiver weapon in Steve Johnson to go with Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin. It all points to fewer opportunities for Vernon Davis to justify being the fifth best tight end in fantasy this year. If I can't get one of the Top 3 tight ends (or maybe Jordan Cameron), I'm waiting on tight end and that includes Davis.
Ryan Hester: In games played by Michael Crabtree, Davis simply isn’t the preferred option of Colin Kaepernick. Without his 13 touchdowns last season, Davis’ fantasy production would have been wildly disappointing. He has combined for just 93 catches over the past two seasons. His talent enormous, but the volume simply isn’t there for Davis to be a guaranteed top-10 tight end.
Stephen Holloway: Vernon Davis has excellent athleticism and is among the most skilled tight ends in the NFL. HIs big negative is that his team, the 49ers are one of the NFL leaders in rushing and the pass attempts have remained lower than the NFL average. Over the past three seasons, the team has averaged 435 passes and each year that number has fallen slightly. In addition, they have spent 2nd and 4th round picks on running backs the past two seasons and Carlos Hyde and possibly Marcus Lattimore should be available to back up Frank Gore. The team also added Steve Johnson who will join a healthy Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin to further reduce targets available. The 49ers do not pass the ball much more than they run and they have plentiful receiving options in 2014. Davis has only topped 100 targets twice in his 8 seasons in San Francisco and don’t look for him to do that in 2014.
Ari Ingel: If Davis was on the New England Patriots he would be a top 10 receiver at any position. He is 6’3’, 254 lbs and ran a 4.38 forty with a 42” vertical and 10’08” broad jump. Trust me, that’s freakish. Calvin Johnson freakish. Unfortunately he is on the Niners and due to the plethora of injuries to their receivers last season, Davis played more like a receiver than a tight end. However, once Crabtree came back, his numbers dipped once again. This season, with all their receivers healthy and the addition of Stevie Johnson and Brandon Lloyd, I think we see a regression to Davis’ 2012 numbers, making him tough to rely on as a week-to-week fantasy play.
Jeff Pasquino: Vernon Davis had double-digit touchdowns last year, but that was without Michael Crabtree (or even Stevie Johnson). Davis' targets are most likely going to dip this year, as will his touchdowns. That limits his upside this year and threatens his ability to finish well into the Top 10 tight ends this year. I like a few other guys that are available after him like Greg Olsen and Dennis Pitta more.
Kyle Wachtel: Only Seattle has attempted less passes than San Francisco in the past two seasons. Davis barely eclipsed 50 in the 15 games he played last season with a depleted receiving corps. Michael Crabtree is now healthy, Anquan Boldin is still around, plus the team brought in Stevie Johnson and Brandon Lloyd. Reaching the 50-reception mark again will be an uphill battle.
Jason Wood: Davis is talented, but the 49ers are a different team this year. Gone are the days when Davis and Anquan Boldin were the only reliable targets on the field. Michael Crabtree is healthy and instantly vaults into the #1 role based on pure ability. As if that weren’t enough, the 49ers acquired Steve Johnson from the Bills. Johnson was a perennial 1,000-yard receiver in Buffalo. Davis will still some looks, but not enough to warrant his status as a top 5 fantasy TE.
Player with 6 Votes
Eric Ebron, Det
James Brimacombe: There are three tight end options in Detriot right now and to draft Ebron in redraft this year it is going to cost you at his ADP. A guy like Delanie Walker in Tennessee offers much more upside and you know he is going to be involved in the offense. Ebron on the other hand could have one good week and then 3 or 4 weeks with very little production.
David Dodds: I think Ebron will eventually be a giant contributor in this offense, but rookie TEs generally struggle in the NFL. The fact that Detroit also made a big investment in Brandon Pettigrew this offseason (and have Joseph Fauria) suggests to me that they will bring Eric along slowly before he is the main Detroit TE in 2015. His ADP suggests he will contribute immediately.
Jeff Haseley: I'm not hearing how good Eric Ebron looks in camp or in the preseason, which leads me to believe he is not going to be a major contributor on offense this year. Drafting a rookie tight end is always a slippery slope. There's a ton of information to learn about the position that just isn't seen at the collegiate level. In my estimation, he's just not there yet and isn't worth a flier pick when other tight ends like Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert and Heath Miller offer much better value.
Andy Hicks: Expecting a rookie tight end to approach starting Tight End status is incredibly risky. Ebron is currently ranked just after the starters and it is silly to think he is a good chance to reach that upside. The 14th ranked Tight End in 2013 scored 86 fantasy points. Since 1961 only 19 rookie Tight Ends have attained that, with only 7 in the last 20 years. Highly rated Tight Ends from last year in Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert could only finish 20th, 22nd, and 29th respectively. In redraft leagues ignore Ebron and go with a guy with a more realistic chance of contributing.
Matt Waldman: If there's a position to avoid when it comes to picking rookies, tight end is at the top of my list. It doesn't mean that Ebron's ability and role in the Detroit offense won't make him a possible exception to the rule, but I'm not counting on it. First, Ebron is not the savviest of football players. He relies too much on his athleticism and puts himself in harm's way because he has a tendency to showboat after the catch with foolish decisions as a runner. Ebron also drops too many passes in tight windows against physical coverage and Matt Stafford's specialty is fitting the ball into these tight windows. Look for Ebron to have an inconsistent season with some great highs, but not enough to leave fantasy owners satisfied.
Jason Wood: Rookie tight ends rarely deliver fantasy value, and Ebron will be no different. There are a dozen tight ends going after Ebron that I expect will outperform him in 2014. Dynasty owners should be excited about Ebron, but redraft owners should avoid the urge to call his name on draft night.
Players with 2 Votes
Ladarius Green, SD
Heath Cummings: The Green hype train has slowed a little but I still think it’s ridiculous he’s being taken before Antonio Gates. Gates is the TE1 in this offense and will be barring injury. Green is a high-upside tight end that could develop into a big threat, but he really only has two good games in his career.
Stephen Holloway: Ladarius Green is an excellent athlete at tight end, but he is still getting acclimated to the NFL. In his two seasons with the Chargers, he has totaled 21 receptions for 432 yards and 3 TDs. He should continue to improve in 2014, but with Antonio Gates still playing well, Green will likely not have the opportunity to produce equivalent to his current ADP.
Jordan Reed, Was
Stephen Holloway: Jordan Reed had an excellent rookie campaign with 45 catches for 499 yards and 3 TDs in only 9 games. His season however was cut short after he suffered a concussion in the week 11 game with Philadelphia. His return was anticipated for several weeks, but was delayed and eventually he was placed on IR in late December with his third concussion. The team added DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts during the off-season and have Pierre Garcon returning so their receivers are much improved. Reed should remain involved in the passing game, but maybe to a lesser extent with the new additions. The primary factor remains Reed’s propensity for concussions and the potential to miss substantial time with another one.
Mark Wimer: I don't like the way Reed's season ended with a series of concussions. Also, his lack of judgment in hiding the first concussion from trainers makes me concerned for his health during 2014. Finally, Robert Griffin III has to regain trust in his knee and learn a new offense - it shouldn't surprise people if Washington starts out 2014 with a sputtering pass attack. There are too many negatives here for me to be enthusiastic about Reed's chances this season - I think seventh tight end off the board is too expensive for a risky pick like Reed.
Players with 1 Vote
Zach Ertz, Phi
Ryan Hester: Word out of Philadelphia that Ertz will be the preferred red zone option has Ertz’s stock climbing. However, it’s easy to forget that this is a run-first team, and Ertz isn’t nearly the blocker that Brent Celek is. Celek won’t catch enough passes to be fantasy-relevant himself, but he’ll take enough away from Ertz to make the second-year player from Stanford far from a lock to be a top-10 player at the position.
Martellus Bennett, Chi
Andy Hicks: A lot of people will be hoping Martellus Bennett turns in a starter worthy performance at Tight End. They are likely to end up disappointed. Bennett started the season with 3 touchdowns in his first 2 games. After that it was a barren run with only 2 in the remaining 14 games. Once Alshon Jeffery announced his arrival Bennett became the 4th option in the Chicago game plan behind Jeffery, Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte. Bennett may get a few catches for around 50 yards in most games, but for his draft price you can get much better value at the tight end position.
Jordan Cameron, Cle
Jeff Pasquino: Is Jordan Cameron a talented, young tight end? Yes. Does he have the ability to put up big fantasy numbers? Yes. Then why do I not like him as a Top 5 tight end this year? Two reasons, and the first is the quarterback battle in Cleveland. If Hoyer was going to start all year I would like Cameron more, but I believe that Johnny Manziel may see the field some this season and then who knows if he will favor his big tight end as a target. The other big concern is the lack of alternatively viable targets at receiver in Cleveland with Josh Gordon likely suspended for a majority of this season. Defenses will key on Cameron and minimize his production with no other receiving threats on the field.
Rob Gronkowski, NE
Mark Wimer: Another year, another extended injury rehab for Gronkowski: this time he's got to get two surgically repaired knee ligaments (ACL and MCL) stable enough to suit Gronkowski. On April 29 he responded to a question about being ready for week 1 2014 by saying: 'Oh man, that's too far away. I'm just improving every day right now,' Gronkowski said. 'I'm working hard every day to put myself in the best situation so that I'm ready.' Until Gronkowski makes an appearance in the preseason - which probably won't happen again this year, according to reports out of New Englad - he is well down my TE board. Gronkowski has so far in his career returned to the field at the END of a reasonable rehabilitation period for his injuries, rather than at the beginning, friends. His extended rehab cost fantasy owners seven games last year, and then the blown-out knee took him out of fantasy playoffs (including week 15 and 16). Recent reports indicate that Gronkowski is 50-50 to be ready for week one of the regular season, and observers have commented on his noticable limp during public practice sessions - two huge red flags for me. He's prohibitively expensive as the second tight end off the draft board, in my opinion.
Greg Olsen, Car
Sigmund Bloom: Olsen has been very consistent as a mid-low TE1 during his career, especially since coming to Carolina. He is unlikely to do much more than did last year, when the Panthers wide receiver corps was almost equally underwhelming. Olsen is a high floor “safe” weekly TE play, but you can get that kind of produciton from later picks or the waiver wire. If you’re going to take a tight end in the first 8-9 rounds, go for upside.
Jason Witten, Dal
Kyle Wachtel: It's better to jump ship a season early than a season late. Witten is another year older and coming off of his lowest reception total in seven seasons. Gavin Escobar is waiting in the wings for his chance and a sixth round price tag is a too expensive.
