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The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 10 Votes
Vernon Davis, SF
Sigmund Bloom: Vernon Davis had a major resurgence in the red zone last year, but his week-to-week involvement in the already pass-anemic offense is too small to consider him the kind of fantasy tight end that gives you a consistent advantage. Perhaps in nonPPR leagues, Davis is still upper TE1, but in PPR, the gap between him and pack closes significantly, if he is even a desirable TE1. Now that he is going to share with three quality wide receivers, the 2-18 type games could become more common and undermine your confidence in even playing him in any given week.
David Dodds: The 49ers have a ton more passing options this year including Steve Johnson and a healthy Michael Crabtree. This team is also stacked to run the ball a LOT this year. I just don't see enough targets to justify Davis as an elite producer.
Adam Harstad: San Francisco loves to run the ball, and loves to keep Vernon Davis in as a blocker when they do. Davis had a fantastic season last year when he and Boldin were the only viable options in the passing game, but with Crabtree back healthy and newcomer Stevie Johnson in the mix, I fear Davis will spend far more of his time with his hands grabbing opposing players than footballs.
Jeff Haseley: There are several reasons why I don't like Vernon Davis as the fourth tight end off the board. The 49ers are a run-heavy team and to back that up, they drafted another high pick on a running back (Carlos Hyde) after taking a gamble on Marcus Lattimore the year prior. They don't pass the ball often and they added another wide receiver weapon in Steve Johnson to go with Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin. It all points to fewer opportunities for Vernon Davis to justify being the fourth best tight end in fantasy this year.
Bob Henry: As much as I love him as a player, Davis has been one of the more enigmatic fantasy assets that I’ve ever owned. His talent is so obvious and his upside so immense that it’s hard to keep passing on him in drafts when he slips into the fifth round. That being said, Davis lives and dies by catching touchdowns. He just doesn’t have enough volume to consistently perform as a top 5 fantasy TE unless he’s catching touchdowns on a weekly basis. With Crabtree back, Boldin playing at a high level even after losing his whatever speed he had, and Stevie Johnson now added to the mix, Davis will be hard pressed to sustain his top 5 TE performance. If his TD production falls to 7-or-8, then he slides out of the top 4 and down towards the top 8 where he becomes an excellent pick.
Ryan Hester: Last season, San Francisco was struck with some bad luck in its pass-catching ranks when they lost Michael Crabtree for most of the season. Even with a lack of viable, experienced options, Davis only caught 52 passes. In fact, Davis has topped 70 receptions just once in his career, making him a middling PPR asset, as opposed to an elite one. As 2014 nears, San Francisco should have Crabtree back, will have Anquan Boldin in the fold once again, and will be integrating Steve Johnson – who they acquired in a trade during the draft. There are a lot of mouths to feed in the passing game – in an offense that is balanced and doesn’t throw a lot.
Steve Holloway: Vernon Davis has excellent athleticism and is among the most skilled tight ends in the NFL. HIs only negative is the 49ers are one of the NFL leaders in rushing and the pass attempts are low. Over the past three seasons, the team has averaged 435 passes and each year that number has fallen slightly. In addition, they have spent 2nd and 4th round picks on running backs the past two seasons and both Carlos Hyde and Marcus Lattimore should be available to back up Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. The team also added Steve Johnson who will share targets with a healthy Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin. The 49ers do not pass the ball much more than they run and they have plentiful receiving options in 2014. Davis has only topped 100 targets twice in his 8 seasons in San Francisco and don’t look for him to do that in 2014.
Jeff Tefertiller: Vernon Davis is an athletic marvel. The talent is there for him to have a big fantasy season any given year. Yet, an ADP of TE4 and player 51 overall is more than Davis can deliver. The wide receiving corps (Michael Crabtree healthy, Anquan Boldin re-signed, and the recent acquisition of Stevie Johnson) will limit the upside of Davis. Simply, there will not be enough targets to go around for Davis to be worth a high fifth round pick.
Kyle Wachtel: He would be in the conversation of Gronkowski and Graham if he were in a comparable situation. He's not though and his usage in San Francisco tends to fade. The receiving corps is now improved and Davis may be fighting to reach 50 catches.
Jason Wood: Davis is talented, but the 49ers are a different team this year. Gone are the days when Davis and AnquanBoldin were the only reliable targets on the field. Michael Crabtree is healthy and instantly vaults into the #1 role based on pure ability. As if that weren’t enough, the 49ers acquired Steve Johnson from the Bills. Johnson was a perennial 1,000-yard receiver in Buffalo. Davis will still get plenty of looks, but not enough to warrant his status as a top 5 fantasy TE.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Eric Ebron, Det
David Dodds: I think Ebron will eventually be a giant contributor in this offense, but rookie TEs generally struggle in the NFL. The fact that Detroit also made a big investment in Brandon Pettigrew this offseason (and have Joseph Fauria) suggests to me that they will bring Eric along slowly before he is the main Detroit TE in 2015. His ADP suggests he will contribute immediately.
Ryan Hester: Since 2010, only Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez with 11th-place and 14th-place finishes, respectively, ended up as top-15 fantasy players at the position as rookies. In what should be considered the “golden age” of athletic, pass-catching tight ends, it’s still difficult to produce right out of the gate. Ebron is a fantastic athlete in a great offensive system, but the odds are against him being a high-end fantasy asset this season. He’s a high-value dynasty asset, but don’t let that cloud your judgment in redraft formats.
Andy Hicks: Expecting a rookie tight end to approach starting tight end status is incredibly risky. Ebron is currently ranked around 14th and it is silly to think he is a good chance to reach that upside. The 14th ranked tight end in 2013 scored 86 fantasy points. Since 1961 only 19 rookie tight ends have attained that, with only 7 in the last 20 years. Highly rated tight ends from last year in Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert could only finish 20th, 22nd and 29th respectively. In redraft leagues ignore Ebron and go with a guy with a more realistic chance of contributing.
Rob Gronkowski, NE
Steve Holloway: Rob Gronkowski’s size, athleticism and attitude give him dominant advantages, when he is healthy. However, he suffered a season ending knee injury as well as a concussion on December 9th last year. He waited until January 9th to have surgery to repair his ACL and MCL. His rehab is going well, but a year ago he was hesitant to return until completely healthy. This year he is coming back from knee surgery and should miss most of the pre-season workouts. How soon will he return? After playing in 16 games his first two NFL seasons, he has missed 14 of the 32 games in the last two years. He and Jimmy Graham have been without a doubt the top two tight ends in the league over the past few seasons. The key factors for Gronkowski this year are when will he be ready to play and will his knee recovery have him operating at less than full capacity in 2014?
Jeff Pasquino: If you want to take Rob Gronkowski as the first or second tight end off of the draft board this season, be my guest. Spending a pick in the second or third round for Gronkowski feels so much like overspending that it is not even funny. I understand that this guy is a great tight end when healthy, but I do not think he can hold up again this year, plus there are a few other reasons to avoid him. Tom Brady is getting older, and Gronkowski is his only solid target aside from Julian Edelman, who should scare no one beyond 10 yards downfield. Defenses now can double Gronkowski with a linebacker and a safety in under/over coverage and minimize his impact. I would much rather have a Greg Olsen or Dennis Pitta several rounds later.
Mark Wimer: Another year, another extended injury rehab for Gronkowski: this time he's got to get two surgically repaired knee ligaments (ACL and MCL) stable enough to suit Gronkowski. On April 29 he responded to a question about being ready for week 1 2014 by saying: 'Oh man, that's too far away. I'm just improving every day right now,' Gronkowski said. 'I'm working hard every day to put myself in the best situation so that I'm ready.' Until Gronkowski makes an appearance in the preseason - and Gronkowski has so far in his career returned to the field at the END of a reasonable rehabilitation period for his injuries, rather than at the beginning, remember - he is OFF my TE board. His extended rehab cost fantasy owners seven games last year, and then the blown-out knee took him out of fantasy playoffs (including week 15 and 16).
Jordan Reed, Was
Bob Henry: You have to love Reed's talent and opportunity, but his concussion history and risk profile are serious concerns for me, making his TE9 ranking a bit too much for me. If he overcomes the risks and plays 16 games, he’ll easily live up to his ADP, but I'm not confident that will happen. However, if you deploy a late TE draft strategy and decide to grab Reed and another TER like Pitta/Rudolph/Ertz with back-to-back picks, then I wouldn’t talk you out of taking him. His upside can blind you to his risks, but if you have a rock solid backup to pair with him, then he’s palatable as a low TE1.
Steve Holloway: Jordan Reed had an excellent rookie campaign with 45 catches for 499 yards and 3 TDs in only 9 games. His season however was cut short after he suffered a concussion in the week 11 game with Philadelphia. His return was expected for several weeks, but was delayed and eventually he was placed on IR in late December with his third concussion. The team added DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts during the off-season and have Pierre Garcon returning so their receivers are much improved. Reed should remain involved in the passing game, but probably to a lesser extent with the additions. The other factor to consider is his propensity for concussions and the potential to miss substantial time with another one.
Mark Wimer: I don't like the way Reed's season ended with a series of concussions. Also, his lack of judgment in hiding the first concussion from trainers makes me concerned for his health during 2014. Finally, Robert Griffin III has to regain trust in his knee and learn a new offense - it shouldn't surprise people if Washington starts out 2014 with a sputtering pass attack. There are too many negatives here for me to be enthusiastic about Reed's chances this season.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Zach Ertz, Phi
Heath Cummings: Chip Kelly's personnel usage really complicates his value. The addition of Darren Sproles and Jordan Matthews don't help at all either. If Ertz was somewhere like New England where we knew he could see 75%+ of the snaps I'd feel a lot more comfortable with him as a TE1. As it is, I've have a hard time trusting him. I expect Kelly's scheme to take a small hit in year two and Ertz to struggle to consistently post startable numbers.
Matt Waldman: It’s logical that people expect Ertz to make a jump in productivity in Year Two, but 20th to 11th is a healthy leap considering that players like Martellus Bennett, Charles Clay, and Antonio Gates are more proven. Ertz is in a system with a lot of mouths to feed and his production was sporadic last year. The return of Jeremy Maclin and the additions of Darren Sproles and Jordan Matthews could help or hurt Ertz. It’s all guesswork at this point and if I’m taking a player I expect to produce as a low-end TE1, I’d prefer to have a more proven place in the passing game. It should happen for Ertz this year or next, but there’s enough depth at this position that I believe Ertz in the 15-20 range of tight ends is more appropriate.
Antonio Gates, SD
Sigmund Bloom: Gates seemed to have a decent season in hindsight, but by the end of the year he was an afterthought in the Chargers offense. He doesn’t have the burst in his routes or after the catch to be more than a possession target, and Ladarius Green should steal enough looks to put Gates well below the margin of tight ends who offer more than bye/injury/emergency value. He’s not worth a pick this year.
James Brimacombe: Gates continued to show that he can be productive even at this late stage in his career. He put up a 77/872/4 statline last year and finished as the number 9 fantasy TE. The one big disadvantage of entering his 12 year in the league is his lack of speed. He has showed a dip in yards per reception and with newcomer Ladarius Green showing big play ability the production between the two is likely to really level off.
Ladarius Green, SD
Steve Holloway: Ladarius Green is an excellent athlete at tight end, but he is still getting acclimated to the NFL. In his two seasons with the Chargers, he has totaled 21 receptions for 432 yards and 3 TDs. He should continue to improve in 2014, but with Antonio Gates still playing well, Green will likely not have the opportunity to produce equivalent to his current ADP.
Jason Wood: I don’t get the love affair for Green. You would think Green outplayed Antonio Gates last year and is a good bet to replace the venerable Charger. Yet, Green notched a whopping 17 receptions last season. SEVENTEEN RECEPTIONS. His 22.1 yards per catch average was eye-popping, but it’s off a ridiculously small sample size. His three touchdowns do little to hint at dominance, either. Gates may no longer be a high end fantasy starter, but he remains a fixture of Philip Rivers’ passing tree. It seems that every season fantasy owners talk themselves into drafting a young backup as a breakout, and it rarely pans out. Don’t make the same mistake.
Jason Witten, Dal
Cian Fahey: Although he is Tony Romo's favorite target, there comes a point where Jason Witten's declining athleticism is going to erase his production. Witten saw his receptions drop from 110 to 73 last year, while there is plenty of young talent surrounding him to take even more receptions from him in 2014. More will be expected of second-year tight end Gavin Escobar, while receivers Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley should continue to take more of the offensive focus.
Kyle Wachtel: There is little upside at Witten's current price. He's now recorded less than 80 receptions in two of the past three seasons and posted his lowest yardage total since 2006 last season. That downward trend can be expected to continue.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Martellus Bennett, Chi
Andy Hicks: A lot of people will be hoping Martellus Bennett turns in a starter worthy performance at tight end. They are likely to end up disappointed. Bennett started the season with 3 touchdowns in his first 2 games. After that it was a barren run with only 2 in the remaining 14 games. Once Alshon Jeffery announced his arrival Bennett became the 4th option in the Chicago game plan behind Jeffery, Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte. Bennett may get a few catches for around 50 yards in most games, but for his draft price you can get much better value at the tight end position.
Jordan Cameron, Cle
Jeff Pasquino: Is Jordan Cameron a talented, young tight end? Yes. Does he have the ability to put up big fantasy numbers? Yes. Then why do I not like him as a Top 5 tight end this year? Two reasons, and the first is the quarterback battle in Cleveland. If Hoyer was going to start all year I would like Cameron more, but I believe that Johnny Manziel may see the field some this season and then who knows if he will favor his big tight end as a target. The other big concern is the lack of alternatively viable targets at receiver in Cleveland with Josh Gordon likely suspended for a majority of this season. Defenses will key on Cameron and minimize his production with no other receiving threats on the field.