Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player with 5 Votes
Montee Ball, Den
Heath Cummings: Ball has the opportunity to justify his ranking but I don’t see the talent. The fact that he’s missing most of camp makes me even more leery. I’d take Ball at the turn of the second and third, but his first round ADP scares me off. To reach that ADP he needs the Broncos offense to avoid regression and he needs to see a lot of red zone opportunities. I think it’s more likely that he’s a mid-range RB2 with a couple of really big games and a few duds.
Andy Hicks: Montee Ball is going to cost you a late 1st round pick in most drafts this year. He will come with significant risk factors. Ball is not the receiver that the departed Knowshon Moreno was and he has average hands and struggles with fumbles. Of most concern is his fallibilities in pass protection. With an appendectomy costing him precious reps in preseason, he will not be allowed on the field until he can be trusted to keep Peyton Manning on his feet. Another concern was his proclivity at being consistently stuffed for losses. Ball will get cheap yards if opposing defenses focus too much on Manning, but the early schedule is brutal with 4 playoff teams, the Jets and Arizona to start the year. 2 of those playoff teams are the Seahawks and 49ers. That 1st round pick may look pretty average by week 7.
Stephen Holloway: Montee Ball was the Broncos 2nd round pick last year. However, he was unable to beat out Knowshon Moreno for the starting gig. He played very well in a secondary role averaging 4.7 ypc and catching 20 passes. Ball only had 6 games with double digit runs during the regular season, with the high being 15 carries. He did add 2 more double digit carries in the playoffs. Most project him as the dominant leading running back for the Broncos this year, but if Ball’s pass blocking is suspect or he turns the ball over, the Broncos could employ more of an RBBC approach, also using Ronnie Hillman and C. J. Anderson. Ball’s pre-season appendectomy have limited his availability for practice reps.
Matt Waldman: The Broncos starter is expected back after an appendectomy that will cost him the preseason. However, Ball's rehab will put him behind in terms of conditioning and there is a difference between getting back in shape from a surgical procedure and getting back in football shape in the same amount of time. I think there's a bit more risk to taking Ball as early as his ADP dictates. If he's eased into the lineup in September, his production could make him a disappointing start for the first 2-3 weeks of the season and put owners in a hole if they're not careful with lineup management.
Mark Wimer: Ball has yet to prove himself as a legitimate featured running back in this league. For now, I view him as the top back in a by-committee situation, which keeps him well out of #1 fantasy running back range in my opinion. The offense in Denver runs through Peyton Manning's passing arm, which will further limit the ceiling of Ball as he may struggle to get near 15 touches on the football some of the time. Ball's emergency appendectomy during training camp has opened the door to Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson as well - this looks like a John Fox running-back-by-committee to me as of mid-August.
Players with 4 Votes
Christine Michael, Sea
David Dodds: The Christine Michael supporters are some of the most rabid fantasy fanatics out there. Their expectations though seem to discount how dominant Marshawn Lynch has been the last two years and the fact that Robert Turbin is currently second on the the RB depth chart. Michael may indeed be the back of the future in Seattle (Lynch contract makes him moving on likely after this season), but I suspect Christine Michael does not reach his fantasy hype until 2015 and beyond.
Adam Harstad: Even setting aside his preseason fumbling problems, Christine Michael isn’t even currently the top backup on his own team. If Marshawn Lynch gets injured, Seattle will probably devolve into an RBBC, and Michael might well be getting the smaller share of that committee. Do not want.
Ryan Hester: The hype with Michael started when Marshawn Lynch’s contract situation became a widely-discussed topic. However, Lynch has since reported to camp, his discontent appears to have subsided. Seattle is still very much in a Super Bowl window. Their identity was formed in part by riding Lynch, and they’ll continue to do so as long as he’s healthy, relegating Michael to handcuff status with little standalone value.
Ari Ingel: Michael’s talent isn’t a question, but his opportunity to get on the field is. As long as Lynch and Turbin are healthy, Michael probably won’t see more than 5 or 6 touches a game, if any. While he can take one to the house at any time, it will take an injury for him to have real value. His current ADP is a bit too high for a handcuff, even if he is a high end one.
Trent Richardson, Ind
James Brimacombe: I have a hard time drafting this guy in any round despite his low ADP. Richardson just looks to have lost a step and his drive to find the endzone. He averaged a mere 2.9 yards per carry last year and only found the endzone 3 times. Sure he can improve on those numbers easily this year but the question is by how much?
Jeff Haseley: What concerns me about Trent Richardson is that I have heard very few positive rumblings about him in training camp and preseason. The Colts are not a strong ground and pound team and they haven't been strong in terms of receiving production from their backs since the Joseph Addai era. If Richardson was going to show us something this year, you'd think there would be some hint of an inkling that he has turned the corner. I'm not seeing that at all, therefore my stance is to avoid him this year.
Ryan Hester: Last season, Richardson was a consensus first round pick and a huge bust. This year, his ADP appears to have corrected itself, as he has dropped to RB25. However, the unimaginative mind of Pep Hamilton leaves all Indianapolis players in danger of not realizing their fantasy potential. Richardson was often asked to run against stacked fronts in 2013, and the constant two-tight end sets Hamilton is still planning to use this year means history could repeat itself. A more solid, proven option like Frank Gore or the upside of Lamar Miller are likely to be better options.
Jason Wood: I want no part of Richardson. If I miss out on his bounce back season, so be it but you’re not going to get me to bet on a guy who has averaged 3.3 yards per rush over two NFL seasons. I’ve never seen someone that analysts make more excuses for – yet when I have to look back 25 years to find comparable players that started off their careers so poorly and then became relevant in Year Three, I’ll pass.
Players with 3 Votes
Arian Foster, Hou
Andy Hicks: Last season was a year that Arian Foster and the Houston Texans would rather forget. Unfortunately Foster is going to be a dangerous fantasy option for a lot of people this year. Bill O’Brien will be rebuilding the Texans and Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme that brought Foster and his fantasy owners much success will be gone. Sure there have been 28 year old running backs that have bounced back from an injury riddled season, but the majority don’t. Reports that he was considering retirement because of his back injury does not inspire confidence and now we have hamstring issues in preseason? Way too risky for my liking.
Ari Ingel: Foster has a hamstring injury, yet again, and his ADP has actually fallen a bit. But unless he falls into the third round, there is just no way you want a piece of him. The offense looks atrocious, there is no clear handcuff and teams should dare Ryan Fitzpatrick to try and beat them through the air. Between injures and stacked boxes, let someone else deal with the headache.
Chad Parsons: Arian Foster at RB10 possesses far more downside than upside this season. The Houston offense is a shell of its once high-level self a few years ago and rarely will a defense respect the passing game with Ryan Fitzpatrick, or worse a rookie, under center. Add to that Foster's preseason injury and making him an RB1 with top-shelf receivers on the board is a recipe for disaster.
Toby Gerhart, Jac
Sigmund Bloom: Gerhart is actually a nice back who is underrated because of quiet first four years in the league backing up one Adrian Peterson. He is going to get most of the running back production in this offense, but I wonder what that will amount to. Blake Bortles is reason for hope and maybe Cecil Shorts can stay healthy, but this is also an offensive line under construction and the whole thing feels shaky, certainly too shaky to buy in as early as the fourth round.
Heath Cummings: I’m just not excited at all about a career back up taking over the lead role in what could be a terrible offense. When there was talk of Gerhart being a bell-cow it made a little more sense, but now it sounds more like he’ll head a committee. If that’s the case his ceiling is probably borderline RB2 but his floor is much lower.
Stephen Holloway: Gerhart has had more than 20 carries in a game only twice in his four years with the Vikings backing up Adrian Peterson. He signed during the off-season with the Jaguars and at first thought would be the team’s bell-cow running back. Reports lately indicate that the team will employ a RBBC approach, with Gerhart being the lead back. The Jaguars have not had consistent success running the ball the past three seasons and have seen attempts and yardage drop over that period.
Bishop Sankey, Ten
Sigmund Bloom: Sankey is not the kind of talent that usually is associated with being the first back off of the board in the NFL draft. He does have a good offensive line in front of him, but he’s also going to be hampered by a potentially combustible QB situation at the center of his offense. Did I mention that Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster could make this a three-headed backfield?
Ari Ingel: The opportunity appears to be there for Sankey, but I don’t believe he has the talent or the actually opportunity to live up to his current ADP. He’s more of a change-of-pace back and unfortunately for Fantasy owners, Shonn Greene is going to be in the mix. The team also likes Dexter McCluster who will be playing the Danny Woodhead role in this offense and take away some of the catches out the backfield. You can do better for your number two back, and in the fourth round, his price is too expensive.
Kyle Wachtel: Sankey has the potential to return value on his early fifth round ADP, but with two other running backs in line for touches, barring injuries, it's unlikely. Dexter McCluster is expected to fill the Woodhead role for new head coach, Ken Whisenhunt, while Shonn Greene provides the punch in short-yardage and goal-line situations at the very least.
Zac Stacy, StL
David Dodds: At Stacy's ADP, I would have to KNOW that he will hold onto the RB1 job all year. I don't have that confidence in him as he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last season. Add in the Ram's tough schedule, Stacy's 5th round pedigree, and a highly touted rookie in Tre Mason and there are far too many factors suggesting he fails to deliver at this nosebleed ADP.
Stephen Holloway: Zac Stacy, the Rams’ 5th round draft pick a year ago took over the lead role in the backfield in week 5 of his rookie season. After that, he never had fewer than 12 carries and went over 20 carries 5 times, including a season high 33 against Tampa Bay in week 16. He was consistent, but only averaged 3.9 ypc. The team added Tre Mason in the 3rd round this year and the Rams quite likely will shift to more of an RBBC approach. The team gets quarterback Sam Bradford back and he finally has some receiving options. The passing offense expected improvement in 2014 could reduce the number of rushes. Stacy’s value will be dependent on his ability to stave off Mason and continue to have enough opportunities.
Jeff Pasquino: Zac Stacy may have put up impressive fantasy stats as a rookie last year, but it would be foolish to have similar expectations (or even higher ones) for this coming season. The Rams drafted Tre Mason 75th overall in May and Mason could push Stacy for carries and touches all year long. Stack no longer warrants a high pick with the chance that Jeff Fisher will split his workload, even if Stacy keeps 65-75% of what he had last year.
Ben Tate, Cle
Steve Buzzard: Tate finally got out of Houston where many are expecting him to lead the Browns backfield. But I'm a bit skeptical. Tate's free agent contract is only 2 years and worth $6.2M and they went out of their way to draft West and signed undrafted free agent Isaiah Crowell. That sounds like a team that wants a committee to me. Add in Tate's injury history and I expect him to end up with only about 40-45% of the teams carries this year which makes his current ADP too steep for me.
Jeff Haseley: Not only are injuries a concern with Tate, but there's some stiff competition with Terrance West, Dion Lewis and Isaiah Crowell filling out the depth chart. In order for Tate to be a Top 20 running back, he will have to score a lot of touchdowns and/or receive the vast number of the team's carries. I don't see either happening.
Stephen Holloway: Ben Tate was drafted in the 2nd round by Houston in 2011. He has had some NFL success, but primarily in a limited role. He has averaged 4.7 ypc on 421 carries. He caught a career high 34 passes last year as the primary running back once Arian Foster was injured. He signed a two-year $6.2 Million contract with Cleveland and then the Browns drafted not one, but two running backs. Tate may not be the bell-cow running back that many envisioned him for the past couple of years as he performed well backing up Arian Foster.
Player with 2 Votes
C.J. Spiller, Buf
Steve Buzzard: Spiller is an explosive player that can break big plays at any point. But for him to have good value he will need to do that consistently since he doesn't get many goal line carries. Those can only go down with the addition of Bryce Brown. Brown also limits Spiller’s upside in the case of a Jackson injury. Last year Spiller was slowed by injury so I expect a bump in his yards per carry but due to a stagnant Bills offense and his lack of goal line work will leave his touchdowns too low.
Matt Waldman: I see how Spiller could earn more than 225 carries, but I'm too skeptical to buy it. I'm also unconvinced that Spiller will stay healthy enough to produce at his optimal level for a 16-game season. Throw in the Bills' trade for Bryce Brown, coach Doug Marrone's praise of Brown's ability, and the addition of Sammy Watkins to earn targets that will be glorified running plays, and the only thing about Spiller I can agree with fantasy owners about is his ability.
Players with 1 Vote
Giovani Bernard, Cin
Mark Wimer: Bernard is in a running back by committee, as the Bengals' coaching staff is committed to that concept. Whether it is Jeremy Hill (most likely) or BenJarvus Green-Ellis (less likely) that vultures short-yardage and goal-line carries from Bernard this year, he will not get enough money plays to wind up among the top ten fantasy running backs this year. Bernard is overvalued at eighth running back off the board as of mid-August.
Andre Ellington, NYG
Chad Parsons: Andre Ellington at RB13 is too high on my board. Ellington does not work well between the tackles and will rarely see a goal line opportunity. He is also not the athlete that C.J. Spiller is, who also fits the previous description. The odds are low that Ellington outperforms this price point.
Jeremy Hill, Cin
James Brimacombe: It is hard to state that a rookie RB is over valued with out ever seeing him on the field but I have felt right from the start that the fantasy community has already pegged Hill as the goal line back in Cincinnati and that he is instantly going to steal some of Bernard's touches. I believe that Bernard is too talented to not give a full workload to and that all the Hill hype is a little over exaggerated.
Rashad Jennings, NYG
Andy Hicks: Rashad Jennings has had a successful 8 weeks in a 5 year career. That was at the end of the 2013 season and got him a free agent contract with the Giants. Unfortunately the rest of his career has been injury riddled or disappointing and those that expect to be getting a starting running back in the 4th or 5th round are going to end up disappointed. The retirement of David Wilson and the early preseason form of Jennings will be the ultimate tease. I fully expect 4th round rookie Andre Williams to be a significant contributor and at age 29, Jennings is unlikely to continue his hot streak on his 3rd team in 3 years.
Chris Johnson, NYJ
Matt Harmon: Here’s on ADP that makes no sense. If you look at Chris Johnson’s year-end stats, he looks like a solid fantasy running back. Should you venture to break down his game-by-game logs, you’ll see who he really is. Over half of Johnson’s 2013 189 standard league fantasy points came in six games. The rest of the 10 contests he played in were average to poor. He did not record a touchdown on the ground until week 9. This left his owners without a rushing touchdown from their likely RB1 in 12 of 16 games.Johnson is what he is at this point. He can be great one week, but invisible in most others. Trying to predict which week is which isn’t worth the time. Johnson’s inconsistent recent production should leave fantasy owners weary when considering him this season. There isn’t a great historical precedence for older running backs reinvigorating their careers with a second team. Why invest in this type of player in the fifth round? It makes no sense.
Marshawn Lynch, Sea
Jeff Pasquino: I have some concerns with Marshawn Lynch as a top running back this year. Seattle loves to feature the ground game, but both the coaching staff and Lynch himself are sending out some red flags. First, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell hinted at a committee run game for this year, while Lynch held out early because of his contract. The truth is usually between these extremes, and I think Seattle is going to check out both Robert Turbin and Christine Michael whenever they can this year to see if they can cut Lynch loose after this season. That means fewer chances for Lynch, and I don’t want that kind of threat behind my first round running back selection.
Doug Martin TB
Jeff Haseley: Even if you believe the Buccaneers will still give Doug Martin the same role as the team's bellcow running back, the offense is going to be different under Lovie Smith and Offensive Coordinator Jeff Tedford. I don't see Martin reaching a high number of receptions, which will lower his fantasy value, plus rookie Charles Sims is good enough to see a fair amount of touches this year, which also will diminish Martin's production.
Tre Mason, StL
Ryan Hester: Mason has the tools to be a very good runner. However, he comes from a collegiate offense that did very little passing, which means he did very little pass blocking. Jeff Fisher has already said that Mason will strictly be a change-of-pace player. Benny Cunningham is the backup to Zac Stacy – not Mason.
Ryan Mathews, SD
Kyle Wachtel: With Danny Woodhead cemented as the primary receiving back, Mathews was already limited to early down work. The addition of Donald Brown, who signed a three-year, $10.50 million contract adds another mouth to feed in the backfield. While Mathews should remain the lead back, he won't be reaching 285 carries again. Fumbling in the preseason opener is a bad sign as well.
Alfred Morris, Was
David Dodds: He does not catch the ball. And that was when the team had poor WR options. The team is stacked at pass catchers now so I have little reason to believe Morris will all of a sudden improve on his career high 11 receptions in 2012. In PPR leagues, this guy is significantly over-priced.
DeMarco Murray, Dal
Matt Waldman: I have always been a fan of Murray's game, but the Cowboys cannot stop the run and I have concerns that this defense will have enough deficiencies that Dallas will not have the chance to emphasize the run. If I'm right, Murray will get his touches, but the difference in workload will make him a better bet as a RB2 than a RB1.
Ray Rice, Bal
Kyle Wachtel: If Rice weren't suspended, he would be a value. He'll be healthy and Gary Kubiak will have the running game back in gear. However, spending a fifth round pick on a player suspended for the first two games just doesn't make sense. Those two weeks may not only end up costing you a playoff berth, but they also allow Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro a chance to earn roles even after Rice's return.
Stevan Ridley, NE
Jason Wood: Ridley fumbled AGAIN in the 2nd week of the preseason, and I can’t imagine Belichick is going to give Ridley a long leash. I think he’s a talented back, but at this point I think relying on him is a risky proposition. Blount took over late in the season, and I don’t see why the Patriots won’t give someone like James White a similar opportunity.
Darren Sproles, Phi
Jason Wood: Sproles is incredibly overvalued, with one top 20 fantasy season in eight years. He’s now on a team that doesn’t throw the ball much, spreads the ball around, and has plenty of other receiving outlets in short- and intermediate routes. LeSean McCoy is a true 3-down workhorse and isn’t going to be taken off the field in 3rd downs like the Saints RBs were. Even if McCoy gets hurt, Sproles would be part of a committee with Chris Polk. I’ll pass.
Shane Vereen, NE
Sigmund Bloom: James White’s preseason play has not matched his press clippings, but the Patriots are still a backfield that is constantly in flux, as we saw when LeGarrette Blount came on to be a big part of it late last year - a run of games which uncoincidentally saw Vereen’s production and number of touches nosedive. Vereen is not necessarily a player that will be fed touches consistently, but he will surely pop off for some big games when the matchups are right. Timing those starts is not something you want to have to do with your fourth round pick.