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The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player with 6 Votes
Nick Foles, Phi
Steve Buzzard: Foles had an excellent first year. However, I don't like his prospects of a repeat performance. With some time to watch Foles on tape I don't think the league will be caught nearly as off guard. This could limit the overall efficiency of the Chip Kelly offense as well. Foles also lost his number 1 target from last year. Finally, is due to have some regression to the mean on his INT rate which in turn will reduce his TD drives. His current rating is closer to his ceiling than his value.
Heath Cummings: The good news for Foles is he still gets to play in the system that turned him into an elite fantasy option in 2013. The bad news is he’s lost the receiver that helped him get there. DeSean Jackson was a huge part of the Eagles and Foles success last year and they don’t have anyone on the roster to replace him. I also find it really hard to believe that he can be as efficient as he was last year, since so few quarterbacks ever have been.
Jeff Haseley: Nick Foles had an impressive first season in Chip Kelly's offense last year. He finished with 27 touchdown passes and was one of the biggest quarterback surprises in the league. I see a drop in touchdowns and an increase in his amazingly low interception rate of two INTs in 317 pass attempts. The Eagles don't project to be a strong passing team, which is another reason not to be enamored with Foles as a Top 8-10 quarterback.
Andy Hicks: The 27 touchdowns and 2 interceptions are what people see when viewing the stat line of Nick Foles from last year. This cannot and will not happen in 2014. Opposing defenses have had an offseason to figure out chinks in the armor of the Chip Kelly offense and if Foles is going to perform as a fantasy starter this year he will need to have made significant improvements. I want to see these improvements before I entrust Foles as one of my fantasy starters. While the backup Mark Sanchez is a laughing stock from his days with the Jets, he is a more than capable backup with a good playoff record.
Jeff Pasquino: I just do not trust Nick Foles this year. Philadelphia is a run first offense, and the Eagles barely threw 500 times in 2013 (508 attempts as a team). Foles’ numbers do not speak towards a pass-happy fantasy producing quarterback, as he topped 30 passing attempts just three times in 10 starts, with just one game with more than 35 attempts. Throw in his ridiculously good touchdown to interception ratio (27 to 2) and only two of his 10 starts with over 300 passing yards and you can begin to see the reasons for my pessimism. Now with his top receiver gone (DeSean Jackson), Foles is much more likely to post more pedestrian fantasy numbers that could have him as more of a fantasy QB2 than a Top 10 starter.
Jason Wood: Foles was remarkable last year once he took over the starting role (64% completion rate, 27 TD passes, 2 interceptions) and should benefit from being the team’s clear starter in the preseason. Yet, at his current ADP fantasy owners are assuming he’ll remain a top tier, elite fantasy producer. That’s a risky proposition. While regression to the mean may be an overused concept, there is massive historical context to suggest that Foles’ productivity is unsustainable. His 8.5% TD rate is better than ANY QB in NFL history; Aaron Rodgers’ career mark is 6.4% and Peyton Manning’s is 5.8%. As if that weren’t enough to worry about, the Eagles ranked 27th in pass attempts last year; Foles isn’t going to get the volume of attempts to make up for his regression. Last but not least, DeSean Jackson is gone and he led the team in yards, receptions and touchdowns last season.
Player with 4 Votes
Matthew Stafford, Det
Matt Harmon: The big-armed Lions quarterback is the near consensus fourth quarterback off the board. While Matt Stafford posted a massive season in 2012, he just hasn’t repeated that performance. Stafford has plenty of weapons on a good offense. However, why are fantasy owners so keen on investing in a player who finished last season in an absolute tailspin? Stafford and the Lions were just plain bad to finish the season. He’ll certainly makes big plays, and will have some pretty season ending statistics. His high cost, and the depth of the quarterback position in fantasy football makes him undraftable. If he fell to the seventh or eighth round, he’d be a safe bet. That is never going to happen, however.
Adam Harstad: Over the last two years, Stafford has parlayed the most and 17th most pass attempts in a single season in NFL history into mediocre fantasy seasons. What happens when those record attempt numbers fall back to the pack? What happens if Calvin Johnson gets hurt? There are a lot of ways for Stafford to underperform this ranking, and very, very few ways for him to live up to it.
Andy Hicks: Matthew Stafford has a new coaching staff at all levels this year as he continues to frustrate fans and the team alike with some of his decision making. Calvin Johnson has made him look better than he is and I really worry about the brain trust entrusted with getting the best out of him this year. Jim Caldwell was a disaster last time at head coach, offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi is a rookie play caller and QB coach Jim Bob Cooter has some bizarre incidents on his resume.
Jason Wood: I don’t expect Stafford to bust, but in terms of overall draft strategy, I find the prospect of taking Stafford at his ADP troubling. Stafford is the “best of the rest” – meaning he’s the consensus guy to take AFTER the unquestioned trio of Manning, Rodgers and Brees. Given the depth at the quarterback position, it makes no sense to be the guy who takes the non-elite QB before anyone else. Either bite the bullet on one of the top three options or wait until the middle rounds for your starter.
Players with 3 Votes
Robert Griffin III, Was
Andy Hicks: Robert Griffin will attract a higher draft price than he did last year. Remember his 19th ranked fantasy season with 0 rushing touchdowns and 12 interceptions? Well it got the previous coaching regime fired and now reports are saying that Kirk Cousins is outplaying him in practice. He is going to have to perform as a fantasy starter and there are much better options available at his current draft price.
Stephen Holloway: Robert Griffin III had a spectacular rookie season, completing 63.6% of his passes for 3,476 yards, 8.1 ypa, and 22 TDs, while also rushing for 833 yards and 7 TDs. He struggled mightily last year as he returned from a severe knee injury. His completion rate fell from 65.7% to 60.1% and his yards per attempt fell from 8.1 to 7.0. Even more disconcerting was his TD to Interception ratio, which was 20/5 in his rookie year and became 16/12 last year. Lots of changes in Washington this season with a new head coach and most eyes will be focused on Griffin and how he performs a year and a half removed from surgery. Prior to his injury he was a dynamic play-maker and he could return to that form in 2014. Early pre-season reports have not been favorable, some even saying that Cousins has played better.
Mark Wimer: Griffin is overvalued as the seventh quarterback off the QB board. He has to regain trust in his knee (which hampered him last season), learn a new offense, and integrate a mercurial talent (DeSean Jackson) into his receivers' corps. I'm not sure that Griffin is up to all these tasks, and I expect a slow start from him during September (as a best-case scenario). Seeing the offense melt down again is a possibility here - I'll be avoiding Griffin in my redraft leagues this year. Reports of up-and-down passing performance during training camp hasn't brightened my view of Griffin since preseason.
Andrew Luck, Ind
Jeff Haseley: I am a big fan of Andrew Luck and I like the weapons he has this year. Reggie Wayne is returning, T.Y. Hilton continues to raise the level of his game and Hakeem Nicks has the pedigree to provide a great complimentary angle to the receiving corps. Not to mention the dual threat at tight end. Even though Luck is an athletic multi-purpose quarterback, the value isn't there as the fifth quarterback off the board, especially not for a pocket quarterback who has never exceeded 23 touchdown passes in a season.
Ryan Hester: Luck is among the most talented passers in the league, but his offensive scheme is a concern. Pep Hamilton showed an affinity to two-tight end sets and a power running game despite this team’s talent being in Luck’s arm and the skills of his receivers. Most playcallers with their own “systems” are very reluctant to change. The questionable status of how Luck’s offense will look this season should cause concern and lead to drafters surpassing him in favor of Nick Foles or Robert Griffin III.
Mark Wimer: The Indianapolis passing offense doesn't have enough talent or depth at wide receiver for Luck to finish among the top-five fantasy quarterbacks this year, but he is being drafted at fifth off the QB board right now. Reggie Wayne was back in time for preseason (a plus, but we don't know if he's back at the top of his game), but Hakeem Nicks/Donte Moncrief have yet to work out as the team's #3 wideout. Right now, a thin wide receiver corps has me wary of Luck. There are a few too many question marks around Luck for him to be further up the food chain at QB, and I think he's prohibitively expensive at fifth fantasy QB drafted. I'd rather take a proven player like Matthew Stafford or Matt Ryan after the elite three (Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees).
Peyton Manning, Den
David Dodds: This has more to do with the depth of the position than how well I think Manning will perform in 2014. By all accounts, Denver is stacked with passing weapons and Manning looks like a sure thing to bank another great statistical season. But before we just hand him those stats, consider he is 38 years old this season. The team also moved on from Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno while improving their defense considerably. With an improved defense, Denver may be able to manage more games late (which in turn cuts down on Manning's stats).
Ari Ingel: Manning is obviously a stud, but throwing another 50 touchdown passes is probably not realistic. Erick Decker is also gone, and while Emmanuel Sanders has played well in camp, he isn’t the same sort of deep threat. It’s not that Manning is a bad pick, but the fact that you can get Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Mathew Stafford ten and twenty picks later, makes drafting Manning at his current ADP a bad value.
Kyle Wachtel: If Manning were to replicate last season then he would be in consideration for 1.1. Expecting another year of historic proportions is unreasonable though. The schedule seems to be tougher and the Denver defense improved, both of which are cause for a decline in passing totals. The opportunity cost of drafting a quarterback in the early rounds is simply too high.
Players with 2 Votes
Tom Brady, NE
Jeff Pasquino: Tom Brady is aging quickly, but that is not the reason to push him down the rankings. The lack of talent at receiver does that for his value. Aside from TE Rob Gronkowski (who is a perennial injury risk), there is not a legitimate receiving threat for the Patriots or Brady to target on a consistent basis. Bill Belichick knows this, and he emphasizes the running attack and defense instead of relying on Brady. Brady is marginally considered a QB1 in fantasy and his age pushes him down even further in multi-year leagues (Keeper and Dynasty).
Mark Wimer: The supporting cast around Brady won't support a top-ten finish this year, in my opinion. Possibly no Rob Gronkowski to start the season (again, Gronkowski is said to be 50-50 to play in week one, with significant limping noted by practice observers), and Brady is definitely stuck with Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola as his #1 and #2 wide receivers, with the 'great' Brandon LaFell (coming over from Carolina) as one of the depth players behind Amendola. The talent pool behind Gronkowski and the top two receivers is very shallow, leaving this team with few options in the event of another round of injuries on the supporting staff. As I stated last year, even Tom Brady can't overcome the low level of his supporting cast (and he's reaching the twilight of his career - Brady will be 37 in August). His current draft position of ninth quarterback off the board is based on reputation, not reality.
Andy Dalton, Cin
Sigmund Bloom: With the quality of options available at RB/WR/TE in the 10th/11th round, you don’t need to be taking a QB here unless they have legit top 6 upside. Sure, Dalton finished there last year, but the offense is going to be avowedly more balanced under new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, and the top 6 bar was very low last year. There will be a QB as good as Dalton’s projection in any given week on the waiver wire.
James Brimacombe: Although his numbers were outstanding last year for fantasy purposes, he simple was not playing at a level the Bengals were hoping for from him. I think the Bengals could reduce Dalton's pass attempts by a significant amount and put more focus on the running game and controlling the game. The Bengals have a star studded roster where simple stats have not been winning them big games and as a result I can see them putting their trust more in Giovani Bernard more than Andy Dalton in 2014.
Cam Newton, Car
Sigmund Bloom: Newton is being involved less as a runner as he gets farther into his value, and his offseason ankle surgery won’t encourage the Panthers to make him use his legs more this season. Newton’s wide receiver corps and offensive line are among the league’s weakest, and his team has a head coach and defense that incline their games towards low-scoring game scripts. QB is too bountiful to take Newton in the top 12.
Jeff Pasquino: There are several reasons why I am not very high on Cam Newton's fantasy prospects. First, he just lost his one real target in Steve Smith, and now the Panther’s perennial hunt for receivers has gone from their second (and third) options to trying to find any viable targets to start. It is so bad that none of the wide receivers on the roster right now even caught a single pass for Carolina last year. Greg Olsen is a solid tight end, but at some point a quarterback needs more options. Next, Newton plays for a team that loves to run the ball, and while that does help Newton when he decides to tuck it and run himself, both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are not known to be strong receivers. Newton had less than 4,000 yards passing in 2012, then dipped even lower (3,379 yards) last year. Too much of his fantasy worth relies on his rushing numbers (741 yards and eight scores in 2012, 585 and six last season). Counting on Newton every week is tough with no viable receivers on the horizon for 2013 and defenses likely to stack the box against the run.
Aaron Rodgers, GB
Sigmund Bloom: We’re splitting hairs in the first few rounds, and these exercises are breaking against Rodgers. A few trends going against Rodgers make him the least attractive of the top three passers. There’s a prevailing trend of diminishing rushing numbers for Rodgers, and the Packers are better equipped to be balanced because of Eddie Lacy’s big presence in the backfield.
Kyle Wachtel: Rodgers is close to Manning in terms of projections and so he does present a little more value nearly a round later. He's surrounded by plenty of weapons and in the prime of his career, but again, the opportunity cost is still too high until the late third round.
Matt Ryan, Atl
Matt Waldman: Unless Harry Douglas has a 1000-yard season with 8-10 touchdowns or Douglas, Levine Toilolo, and the running backs have career-years, I don't see how the Falcons will repeat its passing production from 2011-2012. Ryan is a fine quarterback and Roddy White and Julio Jones are excellent receivers, but I can't see who is going to pick up the slack for Tony Gonzalez and who will step in to build on the offense. The NFC South has some up and coming defenses and the Falcons without a viable tight end will make life easier for the opposition.
Jason Wood: I realize Matt Ryan threw for 4,515 yards and 26 touchdowns last year in spite of injuries to Julio Jones and Roddy White. While White and Jones appear set for healthy returns, I worry about Ryan this year for one simple reason – Tony Gonzalez is gone. Gonzalez was not just a key cog, he was a highly efficient pass catcher who bailed Ryan out and converted key first downs time and again. Unless Levine Toilolo is much better than I think he is, I worry Ryan will have difficulty adjusting to the post-Gonzalez era. Combine that with the loss of LT Sam Baker, and the red flags are flying.
Players with 1 Vote
Drew Brees, NO
Kyle Wachtel: No player has thrown for more passing yards or passing touchdowns than Brees since he became the starter in New Orleans. There's a good chance he ends up atop those passing categories again in 2014, but as is the case with Manning and Rodgers, you're doing your team a disservice to draft a quarterback this early.
Colin Kaepernick, SF
Heath Cummings: Kaepernick really has to have a monster year on the ground to reach this level of fantasy production and Jim Harbaugh would much rather have his running backs do the heavy lifting on the ground. He has plenty of weapons to throw to, but Michael Crabtree and Steve Johnson don’t excite me enough to move Kaepernick into the top ten. Low volume and low efficiency makes Kaepernick a low priority for me.
Philip Rivers, SD
Ryan Hester: San Diego started out 2013 as a high-flying rhythm passing game. However, by season’s end, they were among the league’s most balanced teams. This ability to run the ball allowed them to dictate the pace against inferior teams and stay in games against superior ones like Denver by keeping their offense off the field. Rivers isn’t likely to repeat the number of attempts he had last year, meaning his production is likely to decrease. Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger have better upside than Rivers.
Alex Smith, KC
Stephen Holloway: Alex Smith has progressed over his career to being a reliable, safe quarterback that limits turnovers. His biggest issue is limited opportunities. The Chiefs have a better running offense than a passing offense. Smith played in 15 games a year ago and averaged 33 pass attempts per game, with that number drastically decreasing the final three games to 23 pass attempts per game. Combine a lower than average number of attempts with his 6.52 ypa and you have limited potential. He also runs infrequently so he remains a lower tier starting quarterbacks with limited upside.
Russell Wilson, Sea
Stephen Holloway: Russell Wilson enters 2014 as the starting quarterback for the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks. Wilson’s two seasons have been a model of efficiency. His production has been remarkably similar each year, averaging 63.6% completion, 8.1 ypa, 3,238 yards passing and 26 TDs with 9.5 interceptions. The Seahawks have one of the NFL’s top defenses and a consistently productive running game. They are rarely behind in games and typically run almost as often as they throw. That is Wilson’s blessing and his curse, but it definitely limits his opportunities in the passing game.
