The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Tom Brady, NE
James Brimacombe:Tom Brady has entered the time in his career where he will do anything to win games. What that means for the Patriots these days is to have a more balanced attack on offense and get the most out of every positioned player on offense. Brady no longer has to win games by out dueling his competition rather he has to win by being smart and playing a more conservative game. What that results in is a lot of wins for the Patriots but at the same time a lot of mediocre games stat wise for Brady individually. There are too many upside QB options to have to settle for the safe play of the 2014 version of Tom Brady.
Cian Fahey: The decline of Tom Brady has not been greatly exagerated. The health of Rob Gronkowski and the design of the Patriots offense will continue to allow him to be a productive player, but it seems unlikely that he will outperform Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers in 2014. Kaepernick and Wilson are ascending passers with better supporting casts, while Cutler and Rivers should expect to be more productive with their respective supporting casts.
Andy Hicks: Tom Brady is attempting to bounce back from his worst fantasy season since his 1st season as a starter in 2001. At age 37 and with huge question marks surrounding the receiver positions, it is highly unlikely that Brady returns to his fantasy glory. More than likely he allows the running game and the defense to do their things and he’ll turn it on if he has to. Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Randy Moss aren’t here anymore and Rob Gronkowski is perennially injured. The days of Brady being a top end QB1 are gone as well. He will be drafted on reputation rather than what he’ll do this year. Look elsewhere.
Alex Miglio: Legacy can buy you a lot of rope. That might be enough to hang yourself as a fantasy owner if you buy into future Hall of Famer Tom Brady, however. Brady was all but bereft of quality receiving options. Wes Welker left town, Danny Amendola fizzled and Rob Gronkowski started just six games. Granted, Julian Edelman stepped up and took over nicely for Welker, but Brady lacked any sort of consistent scoring threat otherwise. He wound up 14th in fantasy scoring, a steep decline from 2012, when he was third. A bounce-back season is in order, but how high will that bounce be? Even if Brady is out to prove his detractors wrong, he is a 36-year-old, immobile quarterback with similar issues than last year unless everyone stays healthy.
Mark Wimer: The supporting cast around Brady won't support a top-ten finish this year, in my opinion. Possibly no Rob Gronkowski to start the season (again), and Brady is definitely stuck with Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola as his #1 and #2 wide receivers, with the 'great' Brandon LaFell (coming over from Carolina) as one of the depth players behind Amendola. The talent pool behind Gronkowski and the top two receivers is very shallow, leaving this team with few options in the event of another round of injuries on the supporting staff. As I stated last year, even Tom Brady can't overcome the low level of his supporting cast (and he's reaching the twilight of his career - Brady will be 37 in August).
Nick Foles, Phi
Heath Cummings: Foles was an absolute stud on a per game basis last year, especially if you only consider the games he started. That being said, there is plenty of reason for concern. He lost his number one receiver, and the only transcendent talent in his receiving corps. There's also good reason to believe that defensive coordinators will be more prepared for Chip Kelly's schemes in year two. You don't have to think that 2013 was a fluke to believe that Foles is overrated. But you do have expect a repeat of last year to draft him as high as he's being drafted.
Alex Miglio: It was a magical 2013 season for Nick Foles. He took over for Michael Vick early and wound up scoring the sixth-most fantasy points per game. Having a seven-touchdown explosion against the Oakland Raiders was a big help. Foles certainly benefited from new head coach Chip Kelly’s offense, not to mention an all-world running back like LeSean McCoy. He will benefit from those again this season, but how much? One thing he won’t have is his leading receiver from last season DeSean Jackson. In his place is rookie Jordan Matthews, a rookie with an entirely different game. It’s not as if Foles will automatically fall off a cliff, but he screams “system quarterback.”
Jeff Pasquino: I just do not trust Nick Foles this year. Philadelphia is a run first offense, and the Eagles barely threw 500 times in 2013 (508 attempts as a team). Foles’ numbers do not speak towards a pass-happy fantasy producing quarterback, as he topped 30 passing attempts just three times in 10 starts, with just one game with more than 35 attempts. Throw in his ridiculously good touchdown to interception ratio (27 to 2) and only two of his 10 starts with over 300 passing yards and you can begin to see the reasons for my pessimism. Now with his top receiver gone (DeSean Jackson), Foles is much more likely to post more pedestrian fantasy numbers that could have him as more of a fantasy QB2 than a Top 10 starter.
Matt Waldman: I’m expecting to be dead wrong about this one, because I’ve never seen a quarterback throw this many touchdowns (27) and so few interceptions (2) during a season. Even when I toss in the fact that there were more than a few plays where Foles made some truly dumb down-field throws into the thick of coverage while under pressure, it isn’t enough to say he’s overvalued. Still, I’m leery of first-year splashes at quarterback in offenses that NFL defenses are still getting a handle on. I expect the NFL to adjust and when it does, I wonder if we’ll be seeing more of the Foles that flashed these poor decisions last year (and a lot more often at Arizona). There are at least five quarterbacks I’d prefer later—often much later.
Jason Wood: Foles was remarkable last year once he took over the starting role (64% completion rate, 27 TD passes, 2 interceptions) and should benefit from being the team’s clear starter in the preseason. Yet, at his current ADP fantasy owners are assuming he’ll remain a top tier, elite fantasy producer. That’s a risky proposition. While regression to the mean may be an overused concept, there is massive historical context to suggest that Foles’ productivity is unsustainable. His 8.5% TD rate is better than ANY QB in NFL history; Aaron Rodgers career mark is 6.4% and Peyton Manning is 5.8%. As if that weren’t enough to worry about, the Eagles ranked 27th in pass attempts last year; Foles isn’t going to get the volume of attempts to make up for his regression. Last but not least, DeSean Jackson is gone and he led the team in yards, receptions and touchdowns last season.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Andy Dalton, Cin
Sigmund Bloom: Even though he isn’t being taken anywhere near his top 5 ranking from 2013, Dalton is still overvalued as a draft pick at all, unless it is a very deep league. He won’t be relied as heavily in the Bengals offense this year, and Dalton was inconsistent to a maddening level last year. With a glut of quarterbacks worth starting, you want upside in your backup at the position, and Dalton doesn’t offer that.
James Brimacombe: No one would have predicted that Andy Dalton would have been the #3 ranked fantasy QB in 2013. He did it with his arm and with the 586 passing attempts he was given. Dalton threw for 4,296 yards and added 33 touchdowns in the air to go along with another 2 touchdowns on the ground. The one stat that is hidden in the mix is his 20 interceptions and his 0 playoff wins. Look for the Bengals to try to change things up on offense and work on their running game and clock management to try to help them get to the next level. I could see Dalton back under 500 passing attempts and a more balance offense overall.
Bob Henry: Dalton’s ADP has actually fallen closer to where I have him projected as a slightly better than average QB2. There is virtually no chance of him repeating his 2013 numbers in a new offense that promises to run the ball more and allow Dalton to play more to his strengths. He has excellent talent around him and he’ll continue to produce big plays, but the volume just won’t be there for him to sustain consistent QB1 value week to week. If he slides outside the top 15 QBs, then you have to consider him, but even then I’ll opt for Roethlisberger, Cutler, Rivers or Tannehill.
Ryan Hester: In terms of tangible factors, Dalton loses Jay Gruden— a coordinator who turned him into a confident volume passer last season – to Hue Jackson, a run-first play-caller. On the less tangible side, Dalton enters 2014 with many doubters as to his standing as a “franchise” quarterback who can get a talented roster over the hump. A slow start for Dalton could torpedo his confidence. Dalton represents a low-risk selection, as he is being drafted as backup QB for fantasy purposes. But with the position being so deep that everyone in a start-one-quarterback league will have a very viable option, I prefer my backup (if I have one at all) to be a high-upside player. Johnny Manziel and Ben Roethlisberger, contrasting styles and all, offer higher ceilings than Dalton.
Robert Griffin III, WAS
Andy Hicks: Robert Griffin will attract a higher draft price than he did last year. Remember his 19th ranked fantasy season with 0 rushing touchdowns and 12 interceptions? Well it got the previous coaching team fired and a new unit has been assembled. Will Griffin be on the same page straight away, can he return to his rookie form? I’d rather be looking at a safer option for the price you’ll have to pay here. If he falls well below his current ADP, then he may be worth the risk, but don’t expect it.
Steve Holloway: Robert Griffin III had a spectacular rookie season, completing 63.6% of his passes for 3,476 yards, 8.1 ypa, and 22 TDs, while also rushing for 833 yards and 7 TDs. He struggled mightily last year as he returned from a severe knee injury. His completion rate fell from 65.7% to 60.1% and his yards per attempt fell from 8.1 to 7.0. Even more disconcerting was his TD to Interception ratio, which was 20/5 in his rookie year and became 16/12 last year. Lots of changes in Washington with a new head coach and all eyes will be focused on Griffin and how he looks a year and a half removed from surgery. Prior to his injury he was a dynamic play-maker and he may return to that form in 2014. He is downgraded due to the possibility of continuing struggles as he learns to play more cautious.
Matt Waldman: The fact that Griffin can ditch the knee brace and Mike Shanahan is a good sign for his career outlook. However, I’m not convinced that Jay Gruden is the constant that will help Robert Griffin earn equal or greater fantasy production than Andy Dalton in the coach and quarterback’s first season together. Desean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed might be collectively better than A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, and Jermaine Gresham, but Griffin is learning his third system (since college) in four years. Last year’s struggles may have been precipitated by injury, but a lot of Griffin’s mistakes were mental or attributable to poor play by surrounding talent at the line of scrimmage. I expect Griffin to rebound from his QB19 finish from last year, but not as optimistic as his QB7 rating on this list. It’s possible, but I think QB9-QB13 ismore realistic.
Mark Wimer: Griffin is overvalued as the seventh quarterback off the QB board. He has to regain trust in his knee (which hampered him last season), learn a new offense, and integrate a mercurial talent (DeSean Jackson) into his receivers' corps. I'm not sure that Griffin is up to all these tasks, and I expect a slow start from him during September (as a best-case scenario). Seeing the offense melt down again is a possibility here - I'll be avoiding Griffin in my redraft leagues this year.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Andrew Luck, IND
Jeff Haseley: I am a big fan of Andrew Luck and I like the weapons he has this year. Reggie Wayne is returning, T.Y. Hilton continues to raise the level of his game and Hakeem Nicks has the pedigree to provide a great complimentary angle to the receiving corps. Not to mention the dual threat at tight end. Even though Luck is an athletic multi-purpose quarterback, the value isn't there as the fifth quarterback off the board, especially not for a pocket quarterback who has never exceeded 23 touchdown passes in a season.
Jeff Tefertiller: For some reason, Andrew Luck is currently drafted as the fifth quarterback off the board, ahead of Nick Foles, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, and several other top passers. This is the year to wait on quarterbacks, and not take a risk on Luck at the four/five turn.
Mark Wimer: The Indianapolis passing offense doesn't have enough talent or depth at wide receiver for Luck to finish among the top-five fantasy quarterbacks this year, but he is being drafted at fifth off the QB board right now. If Indianapolis has a healthy Reggie Wayne back in time for preseason or if Hakeem Nicks/Donte Moncrief work out across from T.Y. Hilton in place of Wayne, Luck will move up my QB board. Right now, the hole at WR #2 has me wary of Luck's surrounding talent. Also I am in wait-and-see mode on Dwayne Allen's return to full health. There are a few too many question marks around Luck early in preseason for him to be further up the food chain at QB, and I think he's prohibitively expensive at fifth fantasy QB drafted.
Johnny Manziel, Cle
Joe Bryant: Disclaimer - I'm a Texas A&M grad and love Manziel. I don't mind the swagger and the living large style. But Manzeil makes the "over valued" list simply because I don't think he can possibly live up to the hype that will be surrounding him. Brian Hoyer is the starter for now but you know how this will go when the season gets closer. Manzeil's reliance on improvisation and his physical gifts could very well be a hindrance as he transitions to the pro game where mental adjustments and recognition rise in importance. I think he'll be a viable QB in this league at some point. But the hype for 2014 will push his cost too high for my liking.
Jeff Pasquino: I just cannot wrap my mind around taking Manziel as a Top 20 fantasy quarterback this year, especially right now before he has even won the starting job in Cleveland. Brian Hoyer was playing quite well last year, and he could easily hold off Manziel for most of the 2014 season. Let’s say Manziel clears that hurdle and somehow begins the year as the starter. Who is he going to throw the ball to with Josh Gordon facing a lengthy suspension? Defenses are going to swarm tight end Jordan Cameron, leaving any Cleveland quarterback to pick from Miles Austin, Andrew Hawkins or Nate Burleson. I am sure that defensive coordinators are losing sleep over that wide receiver depth chart. The Browns are going to run the ball early and often this year with Ben Tate, Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell (and possibly Manziel). Look elsewhere for a QB2 with QB1 upside.
Jason Wood: I’m not convinced Johnny Manziel will amount to much in the long-term, but that’s irrelevant to his fantasy outlook in 2014. The Browns are desperate for some excitement and this team can sing Brian Hoyer’s praises all it wants, but we all know Manziel will be the starter sooner rather than later. Given his mobility and aggressive play (and the fact rushing yards are valued more than passing yards), Manziel could easily be a fringe fantasy starter for much of the season.
Matthew Stafford, Det
Sigmund Bloom: Sure, Stafford gained Golden Tate and Eric Ebron this offseason, but he also played some of the worst football of his career late in 2013. While he does offer the potential to return to his 2011 elite form, Stafford’s stretch of poor play when it mattered most last year makes him not worth a pick this early at a position that offers solid options well into the late rounds.
Adam Harstad: Over the last two years, Stafford has parlayed the most and 17th most pass attempts in a single season in NFL history into mediocre fantasy seasons. What happens when those record attempt numbers fall back to the pack? What happens if Calvin Johnson gets hurt? There are a lot of ways for Stafford to underperform this ranking, and very, very few ways for him to live up to it.
Bob Henry: My opinion of Stafford is based purely on his draft position and relative value. Going at QB4 in drafts, I firmly believe that Stafford is being drafted at or near his ceiling. There are much better values available in the next few rounds with similar upside, if not proven reliability, in Tom Brady or Matt Ryan. For Stafford to earn his keep as QB4 or higher, he’ll need to maintain the volume that has boosted his stats in the last few years and reduce his mind-numbing penchant for throwing interceptions. He should benefit from the addition of Golden Tate and Eric Ebron, but at his current price, I’m unlikely to own Stafford on my teams this year, preferring to wait and roll the dice on players like Brady, Ryan, Wilson, Roethlisberger or even Jay Cutler.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Peyton Manning, Den
Joe Bryant: Here's the most striking thing I see about Peyton Manning: He's made "Should I select a QB in the first round?" a legitimate question again. While my answer is still "no", Manning's production has been other worldly. You'll see fantasy owners bet the farm on Manning this season thinking he'll stay on this level and my heart is right there with them cheering on a fellow "old guy". But everything in my head says "regression back to earth". He may very well still be the #1 QB. I just don't see him able to sustain his incredible production.
David Dodds: This has more to do with the depth of the position than how well I think Manning will perform in 2014. By all accounts, Denver is stacked with passing weapons and Manning looks like a sure thing to bank another great statistical season. But before we just hand him those stats, consider he is 38 years old this season. The team also moved on from Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno while improving their defense considerably. With an improved defense, Denver may be able to manage more games late (which in turn cuts down on Manning's stats). In PPR leagues, you end up with better teams when you avoid the top guys at the position.
Cam Newton, Car
Joe Bryant: Newton's an easy guy to over value simply because he's so fun to watch. From shrugging off linebackers (that are his same size) to winging the ball downfield to plowing into the endzone, he makes the game fun. But my league doesn't have a "fun to watch" scoring category. My league awards points when the QB completes passes to the receivers. And Newton is woefully short in the receiver department. Throw in the fact he's limited as he recovers from offseason ankle surgery and he's a guy that I don't see living up to expectations this year.
Jeff Pasquino: There are several reasons why I am not very high on Cam Newton's fantasy prospects. First, he just lost his one real target in Steve Smith, and now the Panther’s perennial hunt for receivers has gone from their second (and third) options to trying to find any viable targets to start. It is so bad that none of the wide receivers on the roster right now even caught a single pass for Carolina last year. Greg Olsen is a solid tight end, but at some point a quarterback needs more options. Next, Newton plays for a team that loves to run the ball, and while that does help Newton when he decides to tuck it and run himself, both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are not known to be strong receivers. Newton had less than 4,000 yards passing in 2012, then dipped even lower (3,379 yards) last year. Too much of his fantasy worth relies on his rushing numbers (741 yards and eight scores in 2012, 585 and six last season). Counting on Newton every week is tough with no viable receivers on the horizon for 2013 and defenses likely to stack the box against the run.
Philip Rivers, SD
Sigmund Bloom: Rivers had a renassiance last year, but in the second half of the season, the Chargers became more run heavy and limited Rivers production. He only had two QB1 level games from Week 10 on, and not because he wasn’t playing well. San Diego aimed to shorten games and did it with success last year. Rivers is unlikely surpass his 2013 numbers and a limited ceiling option at QB.
Joe Bryant: Philip Rivers feels like "Peyton Manning Lite" in the regression argument. I like Rivers and watching his resurgence was fun, but 2013 felt more like a late round surge than it did the new normal. Even within the 2013 season, he wasn't able to maintain the early pace he set. Rivers is a solid player but in a deep field of QBs, he looks to me a like a guy that will be overvalued and not be able to keep the pace he posted last season.
Matt Ryan, Atl
James Brimacombe: Even though Ryan finished as the 10th best QB in fantasy last season, it was just a bad season overall. The main reason for the top 10 finish was that the Falcons let him throw a staggering 651 passes which in turn ended up being 4,515 yards and 26 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. You could argue the Falcons are in better shape to start the 2014 season with star WR Julio Jones back on the field, but Ryan still has yet to show that he can be consistent on a week to week basis. Ryan has had 4 straight seasons as a top 10 QB (10th, 8th, 6th, and 10th) but has yet lived up to the hype as an elite NFL QB. Most of his stats seems to a result of his massive opportunity and production.
Ryan Hester: Much of the pro-Ryan talk is that he will simply return to his 2012 form chiefly because he will get a healthy Julio Jones this season. Ryan was QB7 in 2012, so even if you concede that a return to form is a certainty, his current draft spot as QB8 is pretty fair value. However, it’s far from guaranteed that Ryan will be his 2012 self. Jones is expected to return, but Roddy White is now two years older than he was in 2012, one of those years being a very injury-riddled 2013. Ryan also loses Tony Gonzalez, a near-elite presence who was a fantastic weapon even in the autumn and winter of his career. Drafting Ryan at QB8 seems far too high a price to pay when his previous ceiling was QB7 and the players around him in 2014 don’t match those of his best season.
Russell Wilson, Sea
Andy Hicks: Russell Wilson is a great real life NFL quarterback. Unfortunately that does not translate to fantasy success. Seattle will use its strong running game and overpowering defense to win games and allow Wilson to manage the offense. With only 4 games of more than 235 passing yards and 2 that exceeded 2 passing touchdowns, he will not win for you alone. He even ran the ball less as the year went on and if you are drafting him, he must be your backup.
Steve Holloway: Russell Wilson enters 2014 as the starting quarterback for the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks. Wilson’s two seasons have been a model of efficiency. His production has been remarkably similar each year, averaging 63.6% completion, 8.1 ypa, 3,238 yards passing and 26 TDs with 9.5 interceptions. The Seahawks have one of the NFL’s top defenses and a consistently productive running game. They are rarely behind in games and typically run almost as often as they throw. That is Wilson’s blessing and his curse, but it definitely limits his opportunities in the passing game.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Jay Cutler, Chi
Jason Wood: The case for Cutler seems to be that he was productive before getting injured, and if he stays healthy his fantasy value will approximate a QB1. Yet, on a fantasy points per game basis last season Cutler ranked 22nd behind such luminaries as Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh McCown (the guy who replaced him). Cutler has the physical tools, and is capable of big games, but his inconsistency combined with frustrating lack of maturity when the bullets are flying make him an unappealing option as your fantasy QB2. Wait a few rounds and take someone with equal or better upside.
Colin Kaepernick, SF
Heath Cummings: Kaepernick has the big contract and he has Michael Crabtree back 100%... I still can't understand how he's being drafted ahead of Russell Wilson. In his first full season as a starter he saw his completion percentage dip to 58% despite the fact that he was only asked to throw 416 passes. Jim Harbaugh is going to keep protecting his young quarterback with a run heavy-offense and Kaepernick isn't near efficient enough for that to guarantee QB1 numbers. His best chance at meeting value is on the ground and I don't like to count on quarterbacks that have to rush for huge numbers to meet value.
Aaron Rodgers, GB
David Dodds: Finley is gone. James Jones is gone. Eddie Lacy looks primed for a bigger role. All things stacking up against Aaron Rodgers being super elite in 2014. In PPR leagues, you generally end up with better teams when you avoid the top guys at the position.
Alex Smith, KC
Steve Holloway: Alex Smith has progressed over his career to being a reliable, safe quarterback that limits turnovers. His biggest issue is limited opportunities. The Chiefs have a better running offense than a passing offense. Smith played in 15 games a year ago and averaged 33 pass attempts per game, with that number drastically decreasing the final three games to 23 pass attempts per game. Combine a lower than average number of attempts with his 6.52 ypa and you have limited potential. He also runs infrequently so he is what he is, one of the lower tier starting quarterbacks with limited upside.